저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 금은 가치 저장 수단으로 유지되지만 비트코인은 투기 수요에 의존해 결국 붕괴한다고 본다. [금 vs 비트코인] 비트코인은 실물 가치나 실용성이 없고 가격은 투기 수요와 심리로만 결정된다고 주장한다. 금은 여러 상품 중 최고의 화폐이며, 최근 5년간 약 30% 상승해 비트코인보다 강세라고 평가한다. 마이클 세일러는 평균 매수가가 약 3만 달러 부근이라 약 10% 손실 상태라고 언급했다. [비트코인 전망] 비트코인은 결국 붕괴할 것이며, 그 전에 한 번 더 반등할지는 알 수 없다고 말한다. 세일러가 매도하면 시장이 급락할 수 있다고 경고한다. 비트코인 반감기 이벤트를 언급했으나 방향성에 대한 구체적 결론은 없다. [미국 재정 리스크] 미국은 약 34조 달러 부채와 그 외 100~200조 달러 규모의 우발부채를 안고 있다고 주장한다. 연간 약 1조 달러의 이자 부담이 발생하며, 수년 내 세입 전체가 이자 지급에 쓰일 수 있다고 본다. 부채 상환은 불가능하고 이자 부담 역시 감당하기 어렵다고 평가한다. [금 가격 및 정책 전망] 연준이 금을 매입할 것이며 결국 매입하게 될 것이라고 예상한다. 금 가격이 5,000달러까지 오를 수 있다고 전망한다. 중국이 금을 비축하고 있으며 달러 대체 통화 가능성을 언급한다. [리스크 및 결론] 미국은 채무 불이행과 인플레이션 방식 중 하나를 선택해야 하는 변곡점에 있다고 본다. 하이퍼인플레이션 가능성을 경고한다. 경기 둔화 시 재정적자가 확대되고 금리 상승 압력이 커질 수 있다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
The Fed is not going to take care of the problem. The Fed created the problem, and it's going to make the problem worse. And so they should be buying gold. And eventually, they will be buying gold. Now, whether some people buy Bitcoin instead of gold or in addition to gold, who knows? Right? Some people might decide to do that, and that might push the price of Bitcoin up.
I don't know. But even if it goes up, it won't stay up. Eventually, it's going to collapse. You know, so whether it has another rally before that collapse is anybody's guess. Why do you think that Bitcoin will collapse? It's not a substitute for gold. Why do you think Bitcoin will collapse and gold won't collapse?
Because gold has real value and Bitcoin does not. So Bitcoin's price is a total reflection of speculative demand. Hey, financial gladiators. Welcome, Token Nation, to today's financial showdown, where Peter Schiff, aka the Oracle of Oops, spills the beans on Bitcoin and drops some serious truth bombs about the U.S.
economy. With Jerome Powell looking like he accidentally ate a ghost pepper, we've got to wonder in this wild game of monopoly, where's the best place to park your money? Stocks? The ever shiny gold? Or in the cryptic world of cryptocurrencies? Brace yourselves. Schiff's gearing up for a revelation.
Gold is better money than any other commodity we've tried. But Bitcoin is not money. It's not a commodity. It has no use. It is purely a function of psychology and perception and demand. If people think the price of Bitcoin is going to go up, they're willing to hold it. They're willing to buy it. But they don't use it as a medium of exchange.
They don't use it as a unit of account. They use it as a speculative vehicle. I'd argue that Bitcoin is probably more used as a medium of exchange now than gold is. I mean, gold is probably more used as a store of value, but I think Bitcoin is much more used now as a medium of exchange. People can make an electronic payments from one person to another very quickly.
Gold's been flexing like a seasoned bodybuilder, flaunting its 30% muscle gain over the past five years. Bitcoin? Kind of like that gym newby promising gains, but getting stuck at the bench press. So when the financial gym gets crowded, who's your spotter? Gold keeps it cool, while Bitcoin can be a bit unpredictable.
Little wonder, gold's the poster child for the inflationary gym. Michael Saylor is down on his Bitcoin. His average price is a little over 30,000. So he's down about 10% on the billions he put into Bitcoin. And he's not earning any interest. If he just would have left his money in the bank, he could be getting 5% interest now on a money mark.
Do you earn interest on gold? You don't earn interest on gold. No, but this is different. Right? Saylor was the big guy saying all companies need to get rid of their cash and put it in a Bitcoin because you can't earn any yield. Well, now you can earn 5% on your cash. You're still getting nothing on your Bitcoin and the price is going down.
Look at that fool up in El Salvador. You know, his average price for the Bitcoin, he wasted the people's money on. Over in the international locker room, China's hoarding gold like it's going out of fashion. But why, you ask. They're planning an all-star team against the drama diva, the US dollar. Word on the street?
A new currency sprinkled with a touch of gold is in the works. Given the US's tendency to pass out sanctions like gym flyers, some are ready to switch teams. Schiff's even calling for gold to hit the heavyweight division at $5,000. Part of the reason that Bitcoin went up was because Michael Saylor was buying it.
His initial buying helped push up the price. That's the reason it went up because he bought, he moved the market with his size. Where do you think Bitcoin would go if Michael Saylor tried to get out? Oh my God, that thing would collapse. Especially if he let everybody know that he was going to get out.
Yeah, I mean, there would be a $4 billion, I think he's got $4 billion worth of Bitcoin. Now imagine this. Michael Saylor in a twist decides to offload his Bitcoin like it's a clearance sale. Result? A market plunge worthy of an Olympic dive. Gold though isn't about that life. Big crypto name selling off is like watching a protein shake spill, messy.
But wait, there's the Bitcoin halving event. Kind of like a surprise double spin class. With its history of intense workouts, we're gearing up for another sweat fest. If I look at America, and America was a company, I would say America is insolvent. I mean, $33 trillion worth of debt, $1 trillion worth of debt repayments a year.
You know, I keep saying that if the US was a company that was listed on the American Stock Exchange, the directors of the US would probably need to go to jail now for being negligent in their trading. Picture this. You go to bed with a full piggy bank and by dawn you're scrambling for loose change. That's the kind of financial musical chairs we're playing with US dollars and treasuries.
Confused about rising costs? Think of it as the monthly gym fee that just keeps, well, inflating. The United States owes a lot of money in addition to that $34 trillion because it's closer to $34 trillion now than $33, so might as well round it up. But there are all sorts of contingent liabilities that any, you know, company is going to have to account for.
Any company on a stock exchange lists on its balance sheet the contingency liabilities. And so if you look at those liabilities, you're talking about another $100, $200 trillion. I mean, some huge number that actually dwarfs the bonds. But these are still obligations that the United States government has, you know, accepted, which would include the obligation to pay Social Security benefits to people who retire, Medicare benefits to people who retire, the obligation to reimburse banks for any losses on student loans, the obligation to reimburse banks, depositors for any money that is lost in the banking system.
Deep breathe, folks, the US national debt is expanding faster than a cheat day gone wrong. Once viewed as just some extra calories, this debt diet has people now frantically searching for a financial fitbit. If you think about it, we have a $34 trillion national debt. 10% of that is $3.4 trillion. So we obviously can't pay 10% of that number, let alone the number that it's going to grow to over the years, because we're adding trillions of dollars to that pile every year.
And very quickly, 100% of the government's tax revenue is going to go to interest on the debt. I mean, even at the current rate of interest, where, you know, about 5%, in a few years, I don't know how many it is, three, four more years, based on the way the national debt is rising, all of the government's tax revenue will have to go to pay interest on the debt.
Here's our fitness dilemma. We've got this mountain of debt that won't just squat away. Erasing it might strain the system. Keep bulking, the US could face an international timeout. Banking on gold? Remember, even the mightiest can face a tough set. The US government collects income is $3.97 trillion for the fiscal year 2023.
And of that, $1 trillion is going to repay debt. Am I right in saying that 25% of what the government-- It's not going to-- It's not going to repay debt. It's going to pay interest on the debt. None of the debt's getting repaid. It's just the interest. Repaying the debt is impossible. But servicing the debt is also going to be impossible because there's too much debt to service and the interest rates are going to be too high.
So if the government only collects $4 trillion in taxes, what happens when $4 trillion is our interest on the debt? Because we're going to be there. What happens when the economy slows down slightly and they're not collecting $4 trillion, they're collecting $3.5 trillion, not $3 trillion, because the economy's slowing down and people are paying less tax.
The buzzer's ticking, and with every tick the room gets tenser. How do we lift this massive weight of debt? Some suggest a slick financial maneuver. Reminds you of 2008's gym stunt, doesn't it? That move may have saved the match, but the echoes of its repercussions are still resonating. And looming in the backdrop?
Hyperinflation, the uninvited guest ready to crash the fitness party? The economy slows down and people are paying less tax. The budget deficits go up. And so instead of a $2 trillion budget deficit, we have a $3 or $4 trillion budget deficit, which is adding more supply to the market, putting more upward pressure on interest rates, or more pressure on the Fed to monetize those larger deficits by creating additional inflation, which undermines the attractiveness of those bonds and causes fewer people to buy it.
We are at an inflection point where we have to choose as a nation, is the US government going to default on these obligations, or is it going to inflate them away? But hey, keep those headbands tight and water bottles ready. Who knows, the next move might just steal the show. To victory.
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