원문 보기
A crisis, much worse than in 2008. That's what Peter Schiff says, and in the same breath he calls silver below $54 a great buy. How does that fit together? Panic and buying opportunity in one sentence? Hello and welcome to Commodity Perspectives. I am Clara Stein. Today we're talking about Peter Schiff.
He spoke out on X on Friday , shortly before gold closed below $4,000. In addition, there are his statements from his podcast and a longer interview with Kitco from the beginning of October. We'll look at exactly what he says, what speaks for it and what speaks against it. First, a brief introduction to the person.
Peter Schiff is an American investor and economist. He became known for warning about the bursting of the real estate bubble even before the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, he has been one of the loudest critics of the American central bank and has been bullish on gold and silver for decades. This is something you need to know.
The ship is not a neutral observer. He has a clear opinion and he expresses it loudly. What happened? Gold fell below $4,000 on Friday. That was the lowest level since the end of July, and the closing price was also just below 4000. This puts it almost 30% below the record from January. Silver was hit even harder .
From its January high of just over $121, it has fallen to around $54. On Monday, gold will fluctuate around 4020, silver around 54. And right into this crash, Schiff writes, in essence, this is an excellent time to buy, because what is bad for stocks is actually good for gold, and he calls silver a great buy below 54 dollars.
That's a bold claim, because in recent weeks gold and silver have often fallen along with stocks, not against them. Why is the ship still so safe? His starting point is inflation. American producer prices rose by just over 1% in September in only one month. That was the biggest jump in more than four years.
Year-on-year, the increase is over 6%, mainly due to energy. Schiff asks, in essence, what are the manufacturers doing with these higher prices? They pass them on. For him, this means that consumer prices will rise next. If this classification helps you, feel free to share the video with friends or acquaintances who are also interested in gold, silver and the monetary system.
And a like helps us a lot so that this content reaches more people . Thank you you. Now comes the part that will surprise many. It is generally said that rising interest rates are bad for gold. Gold doesn't yield any interest. Schiff sees things differently. In an interview with Kitco in early October, he said that rising yields were essentially the most bullish thing that could happen to gold and silver.
His logic: If bonds continue to lose value, investors sell them and the money then seeks a safe haven. For Schiff, that's gold in the end. The background is the debt burden of the United States. The yield on the ten-year government bond rose to over 5% at the beginning of October. As high as it has been since 2002.
The state's interest costs already amount to around one trillion dollars per year. Schiff expects that they could rise to three to four trillion in a few years. Then there are only two options left. Either high inflation, which he calls a hidden default, or a debt restructuring in which creditors essentially only get 50 cents for every dollar.
Schiff also mentions another point: the large tech companies. In the past, they lent money to the state, i.e., bought government bonds. Today they borrow a lot of money themselves, especially for artificial intelligence. This means they are competing with the state for capital, and that drives up returns .
Schiff says, in essence, there's a time bomb ticking and he doesn't know when it will go off. He does see one way out, at least . If artificial intelligence makes the economy significantly more productive, that could help. He cannot say how big this chance is. Maybe ten, maybe 20 %. And the central bank raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023 .
The next decision will be made on Wednesday at 7 pm our time . Most markets expect a further increase in December. Schiff says, in essence, that the central bank punishes until something breaks, and then it stops. He is waiting for precisely this moment, because if the central bank changes course, that would be the starting signal for gold for him.
His major warning from the podcast fits perfectly with this. Schiff speaks in essence of a financial crisis, a currency crisis, and a debt crisis that will be much worse than in 2008, and of inflation that is expected to be significantly higher than in 2021. He cites mortgage interest rates as an example .
A 30-year loan now costs around 7% in the USA. A year ago there were still a good six. And who actually buys gold when the fast traders are selling? It is worth taking a look at the central banks here. According to Kitco, China bought around 23 tons of gold in September , marking the 23rd consecutive month of such purchases.
Central banks worldwide purchased a net total of 39 tons in August. This is demand that doesn't look at tomorrow's prices. Schiff essentially says that all paper currencies are losing value and gold will ultimately be the last safe haven left . And what does that mean for silver? Here, the ship becomes particularly clear.
For decades, $50 was a blanket. Silber failed there in 1980 and 2011. For Schiff, the old ceiling has now become a floor and the ratio of gold to silver is around 74. So silver is rather cheap compared to gold. In the Kitco interview, he also said, in essence, that he didn't believe $125 was the high.
This was only the first outbreak, and he himself claims to hold more money in mining stocks than in physical metal. But now we have to be honest. What are the arguments against a ship? First, Schiff has been bullish for decades. He was often right, but not always at the right time. Secondly, HSBC sees American yields as the most important driver for gold, and so far rising yields have tended to hold gold back.
Thirdly, the analysis firm Metals Focus even expects a small surplus for silver on the physical market next year. Matthew Piggot of Metals Focus essentially said that without rising gold prices, there will be no fireworks in the silver market. And then there's the price of oil. Brent crude costs around $110.
As long as energy remains so expensive, inflation will rise and the central bank will remain firm. The is putting short-term pressure on gold and silver. Schiff's theory therefore requires patience. Something has to break first, then the central bank will change course. And this point in time can be a long way off.
This results in three cases. In the best-case scenario, silver will hold the $50 zone. The central bank is becoming more cautious, and silver is gradually working its way up the price . In the middle scenario, silver will initially fluctuate between 50 and 60 dollars until it is clear where interest rates are headed.
In the worst-case scenario, silver falls significantly below 50. Then Schiff's theory of a new bottom would be called into question and the correction would take longer. By the way, Metals Focus is n't that far away in the long term either. Analysts expect silver to average around $84 next year and over $90 by the end of 2027.
The difference lies primarily in the path to get there. The ship is expecting a big bang. Metals Focus expects a rather slow recovery. How do we see this? We share Schiff's view on the debt. The US debt burden is a real problem and it's not going away. In the long term, this speaks in favor of gold and silver.
We take his crisis warning seriously, but not as a fixed roadmap. We remain bullish in the long term. At the same time, we openly say that this correction could last for a while, especially as long as oil is expensive and the central bank tightens . Oh, and as always, this is our assessment, not investment advice.
Links to our precious metals dealer and a free guide can be found in the description. These are affiliate links; nothing changes for you . And now it's your turn. Is the price right, and will the old ceiling of $50 become the new floor for silver, or is there still a deeper slide to come? Feel free to write your opinion in the comments.
And if you haven't subscribed to the channel yet , now is a good time to do so. I'm Klara, see you next time.
Comments 0