저자: ClaraStein—발언인용대상:PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 금·은 가격 하락 국면을 '매수 기회'로 보며, 미국 재정 부담과 금리 상승이 결국 금·은에 우호적이라고 주장한다. 다만 진행자는 쉬프의 장기 견해에는 동조하되 단기 조정이 길어질 수 있다고 본다. [쉬프의 핵심 주장] 금은 10월 중순경 4,000달러 아래로 떨어져 1월 고점 대비 약 30% 하락했고, 은은 1월 고점 121달러 부근에서 54달러 수준까지 밀렸다. 쉬프는 주식이 나쁜 것이 금에는 좋다며 54달러 아래 은을 '훌륭한 매수'라고 발언했다. 그는 미국 생산자물가가 9월 한 달 약 1% 상승(4년여 만의 최대), 전년 대비 6% 이상 상승했다는 점을 근거로 소비자물가 상승을 예상했다. [금리 관련 주장] 쉬프는 금리 상승이 금·은에 가장 강세 요인이라고 말했다. 채권이 계속 손실을 보면 투자자가 채권을 팔고 안전자산을 찾는다는 논리다. 10년물 국채금리는 10월 초 5%를 넘어 2002년 이후 최고 수준이었다고 언급했다. [재정 위기 주장] 미국 국가 이자비용은 연 약 1조 달러이며 수년 내 3~4조 달러로 늘 수 있다고 보았다. 이 경우 고인플레이션(숨겨진 디폴트) 또는 채권자 손실을 동반한 채무 재조정 중 하나만 남는다고 주장했다. 또한 빅테크 기업의 AI 투자 자금 조달 경쟁이 국채 시장과 금리를 밀어올린다고 지적했다. 그는 AI가 생산성을 크게 높일 가능성을 10~20% 정도로 보았다. [연준 관련] 연준은 9월 2023년 이후 처음으로 금리를 인상했고, 다음 결정은 수요일 한국시간 오전 7시(진행자 기준 '우리 시간 7시')다. 시장은 12월 추가 인상을 대체로 예상한다. 쉬프는 연준이 무언가 깨질 때까지 긴축할 것이며, 정책 전환이 금 상승 신호가 될 것이라고 본다. 30년 모기지 금리는 약 7%로 1년 전 6%대 중반에서 상승했다. [중앙은행 수요] 중국은 9월 약 23톤의 금을 매입해 23개월 연속 순매입을 이어갔고, 8월 전 세계 중앙은행 순매입은 39톤이었다. [은 관련] 쉬프는 과거 은이 50달러 부근에서 1980년과 2011년 저항을 받았던 점을 짚으며, 이제 50달러 상단이 바닥(floor)이 되었다고 보았다. 금/은 비율은 약 74배로 은이 금에 비해 저렴하다고 말했다. 키토 인터뷰에서는 125달러가 고점이 아니라 첫 번째 돌파였다고 주장했으며, 본인은 실물 금속보다 광산주를 더 많이 보유한다고 밝혔다. [반대 논거] 쉬프는 수십 년간 강세론을 펴왔고 항상 적기를 맞춘 것은 아니다. HSBC는 미국 금리를 금의 가장 중요한 변수로 보며, 금리 상승은 지금까지 금을 억눌러 왔다. 메탈스 포커스는 내년 은 실물시장이 소폭 공급 과잉일 것으로 보며, 금 가격이 오르지 않으면 은 시장에 '불꽃놀이'가 없을 것이라고 분석했다. 브렌트유는 약 110달러로 에너지 가격이 높은 한 인플레이션과 긴축 압력이 지속돼 금·은에 단기 부담이 된다. [시나리오] 최선: 은이 50달러 지지를 유지하고 점진적 상승. 중간: 금리 방향이 정해질 때까지 은이 50~60달러 박스권. 최악: 은이 50달러 아래로 크게 하락, 쉬프의 바닥론 훼손. [메탈스 포커스 전망] 내년 은 평균 약 84달러, 2027년 말 90달러 이상. 쉬프가 '큰 폭발'을 기대하는 반면 메탈스 포커스는 완만한 회복을 예상한다. [진행자 입장] 미국 부채 부담은 실제 문제라고 동의하며 장기적으로 금·은에 우호적이라고 본다. 위기 경고는 고정된 로드맵이 아니라고 선을 긋고, 유가와 긴축이 이어지는 동안 조정이 길어질 수 있다고 본다. 영상 말미에 채널 제휴 링크(귀금속 딜러, 무료 가이드)를 소개했으며 투자 조언이 아니라고 고지했다. [관련 종목 언급] 종목별 직접 언급은 없고 금·은·미국채금리·유가 중심 논의다.
다듬은 글
A crisis, much worse than in 2008. That's what Peter Schiff says, and in the same breath he calls silver below $54 a great buy. How does that fit together? Panic and buying opportunity in one sentence? Hello and welcome to Commodity Perspectives. I am Clara Stein. Today we're talking about Peter Schiff.
He spoke out on X on Friday , shortly before gold closed below $4,000. In addition, there are his statements from his podcast and a longer interview with Kitco from the beginning of October. We'll look at exactly what he says, what speaks for it and what speaks against it. First, a brief introduction to the person.
Peter Schiff is an American investor and economist. He became known for warning about the bursting of the real estate bubble even before the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, he has been one of the loudest critics of the American central bank and has been bullish on gold and silver for decades. This is something you need to know.
The ship is not a neutral observer. He has a clear opinion and he expresses it loudly. What happened? Gold fell below $4,000 on Friday. That was the lowest level since the end of July, and the closing price was also just below 4000. This puts it almost 30% below the record from January. Silver was hit even harder .
From its January high of just over $121, it has fallen to around $54. On Monday, gold will fluctuate around 4020, silver around 54. And right into this crash, Schiff writes, in essence, this is an excellent time to buy, because what is bad for stocks is actually good for gold, and he calls silver a great buy below 54 dollars.
That's a bold claim, because in recent weeks gold and silver have often fallen along with stocks, not against them. Why is the ship still so safe? His starting point is inflation. American producer prices rose by just over 1% in September in only one month. That was the biggest jump in more than four years.
Year-on-year, the increase is over 6%, mainly due to energy. Schiff asks, in essence, what are the manufacturers doing with these higher prices? They pass them on. For him, this means that consumer prices will rise next. If this classification helps you, feel free to share the video with friends or acquaintances who are also interested in gold, silver and the monetary system.
And a like helps us a lot so that this content reaches more people . Thank you you. Now comes the part that will surprise many. It is generally said that rising interest rates are bad for gold. Gold doesn't yield any interest. Schiff sees things differently. In an interview with Kitco in early October, he said that rising yields were essentially the most bullish thing that could happen to gold and silver.
His logic: If bonds continue to lose value, investors sell them and the money then seeks a safe haven. For Schiff, that's gold in the end. The background is the debt burden of the United States. The yield on the ten-year government bond rose to over 5% at the beginning of October. As high as it has been since 2002.
The state's interest costs already amount to around one trillion dollars per year. Schiff expects that they could rise to three to four trillion in a few years. Then there are only two options left. Either high inflation, which he calls a hidden default, or a debt restructuring in which creditors essentially only get 50 cents for every dollar.
Schiff also mentions another point: the large tech companies. In the past, they lent money to the state, i.e., bought government bonds. Today they borrow a lot of money themselves, especially for artificial intelligence. This means they are competing with the state for capital, and that drives up returns .
Schiff says, in essence, there's a time bomb ticking and he doesn't know when it will go off. He does see one way out, at least . If artificial intelligence makes the economy significantly more productive, that could help. He cannot say how big this chance is. Maybe ten, maybe 20 %. And the central bank raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023 .
The next decision will be made on Wednesday at 7 pm our time . Most markets expect a further increase in December. Schiff says, in essence, that the central bank punishes until something breaks, and then it stops. He is waiting for precisely this moment, because if the central bank changes course, that would be the starting signal for gold for him.
His major warning from the podcast fits perfectly with this. Schiff speaks in essence of a financial crisis, a currency crisis, and a debt crisis that will be much worse than in 2008, and of inflation that is expected to be significantly higher than in 2021. He cites mortgage interest rates as an example .
A 30-year loan now costs around 7% in the USA. A year ago there were still a good six. And who actually buys gold when the fast traders are selling? It is worth taking a look at the central banks here. According to Kitco, China bought around 23 tons of gold in September , marking the 23rd consecutive month of such purchases.
Central banks worldwide purchased a net total of 39 tons in August. This is demand that doesn't look at tomorrow's prices. Schiff essentially says that all paper currencies are losing value and gold will ultimately be the last safe haven left . And what does that mean for silver? Here, the ship becomes particularly clear.
For decades, $50 was a blanket. Silber failed there in 1980 and 2011. For Schiff, the old ceiling has now become a floor and the ratio of gold to silver is around 74. So silver is rather cheap compared to gold. In the Kitco interview, he also said, in essence, that he didn't believe $125 was the high.
This was only the first outbreak, and he himself claims to hold more money in mining stocks than in physical metal. But now we have to be honest. What are the arguments against a ship? First, Schiff has been bullish for decades. He was often right, but not always at the right time. Secondly, HSBC sees American yields as the most important driver for gold, and so far rising yields have tended to hold gold back.
Thirdly, the analysis firm Metals Focus even expects a small surplus for silver on the physical market next year. Matthew Piggot of Metals Focus essentially said that without rising gold prices, there will be no fireworks in the silver market. And then there's the price of oil. Brent crude costs around $110.
As long as energy remains so expensive, inflation will rise and the central bank will remain firm. The is putting short-term pressure on gold and silver. Schiff's theory therefore requires patience. Something has to break first, then the central bank will change course. And this point in time can be a long way off.
This results in three cases. In the best-case scenario, silver will hold the $50 zone. The central bank is becoming more cautious, and silver is gradually working its way up the price . In the middle scenario, silver will initially fluctuate between 50 and 60 dollars until it is clear where interest rates are headed.
In the worst-case scenario, silver falls significantly below 50. Then Schiff's theory of a new bottom would be called into question and the correction would take longer. By the way, Metals Focus is n't that far away in the long term either. Analysts expect silver to average around $84 next year and over $90 by the end of 2027.
The difference lies primarily in the path to get there. The ship is expecting a big bang. Metals Focus expects a rather slow recovery. How do we see this? We share Schiff's view on the debt. The US debt burden is a real problem and it's not going away. In the long term, this speaks in favor of gold and silver.
We take his crisis warning seriously, but not as a fixed roadmap. We remain bullish in the long term. At the same time, we openly say that this correction could last for a while, especially as long as oil is expensive and the central bank tightens . Oh, and as always, this is our assessment, not investment advice.
Links to our precious metals dealer and a free guide can be found in the description. These are affiliate links; nothing changes for you . And now it's your turn. Is the price right, and will the old ceiling of $50 become the new floor for silver, or is there still a deeper slide to come? Feel free to write your opinion in the comments.
And if you haven't subscribed to the channel yet , now is a good time to do so. I'm Klara, see you next time.
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