BlackRock Bitcoin ETF in January🚨 Larry Fink = "Confident"

요약 보기

결론: 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인 기대감과 금리 하락 전환으로 암호화폐·위험자산 랠리가 이어질 것이라는 낙관론. 비트코인·알트코인 전망: 첫 불마켓 해 고점은 5만~5만5천 달러 수준 가능성을 언급(마이클 보겔 인용, 발언자도 일부 동의). 이더리움 2,100달러 돌파, 2,200달러 가능성 언급. 2만8천 달러 돌파로 약세장 종료 확인에 가깝다고 주장. 현물 ETF: 블랙록 등이 1월 10일 전후 승인 가능성에 대해 SEC와 대화 중이라고 인용. 승인 실패 시 월가 최대 실패 중 하나가 될 것이라고 언급. 블랙록 웨비나 등 마케팅 움직임을 근거로 승인 임박을 시사. 기관 동향: UBS의 홍콩 크립토 ETF 거래 준비, JP모건 블록체인 결제 기능(JPM 코인·Onyx) 확대, 스테이트스트리트·블랙록의 ETF 토큰화 검토 등을 제시. 월가가 제도권으로 편입되는 흐름으로 해석. 금리·거시: 10년물 금리가 51bp 하락했다고 언급, 미국 신용도에 대한 우려와 함께 금리 하락·달러 고점·위험자산 랠리를 기대. 리스크: 과도한 레버리지 금지, FOMO 경계, 조정(풀백) 가능성 인정. 규제 명확성 부재와 규제 샌드박스 해외 이탈 우려 언급. 출연자 견해: 장기 낙관, 단기적으로는 ETF 승인 시점이 핵심 변수라고 강조. 주식 종목(삼성전자, 엔비디아 등)에 대한 직접 언급은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right so things are cooking in the market right now Bitcoin ethereum what we're doing and watching with salana we'll break down a lot of things for you guys today but it's all going to be built around The Narrative of the ETF when and how much of an impact it will have on the markets my name is Paul bar welcome back to the tech path all right couple of posts we'll get into I want to kind of flow along here there's going to be a lot happening today before I get started I want to thank our sponsor and that is itust capital if you guys are looking at long-term holding in an IRA this is one of the places to check out you can hold Bitcoin over there precious metals all coins all sorts of things it's all self-directed over there very easy to use all you have to use is our link down below get a $100 funding reward if you decide to go in on that uh low fees too on your transactions inside no fees on a monthly so just think about that let's go over to a couple of tweets here I want to start off with Mike uh Alid and uh or or Alfred Mike had a very interesting tweet here that I and I follow this guy he's um I would say he's a bitcoiner and he had a really good position Point here on the 1st of November fomc press conference over Jerome is offstage markets are not following the familiar script of dumping through the close this is the Turning Point yields will fall the dollar will top and Bitcoin and equ equities will rip through the year end basically Mike called it and I think he's exactly right what we did see in terms of yields starting to fall and in fact we saw a fairly significant jump down in yields if you look at what jok and Sor was talking about this is a good example people are losing faith in the US credit worthiness even after the 10-year yield has fallen by 51 bips so that to me is some of the these nuances that happen in the traditional markets that start to move things around it also starts to loosen up uh capital on the sidelines and that's what you're watching right now and then if you look at the comparison of where things are going going around Bitcoin because some people are saying Bitcoin could make it to 50K and part of this will look at of course the ETF the likelihood of getting an ETF before the end of the year even though our friends at bluebar still believe that that's like a 70% probability I feel like this is probably going to roll into that January 10th date and when it does I think that is the key now what does that mean between now and then I think that is the big uh the big question for sure Fox Biz says black rock is growing e increasingly confident in the spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January listen they're having conversations with the SEC there's a lot of back and forth dealing with this had gasperino talking about this everybody on Wall Street is talking about this if this does not happen this would be one of the biggest fails I think on Wall Street in combination with the SEC maybe that we've ever seen in the history of wall stre other things to be watching for and this this is something that saford and I talked about the other day when he was on just in French investment bankers receive an email from Black Rock promoting a webinar for their ey shares at Swap ETF products on November 15 this is within eight days of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval window so this is something that uh safer and I talked about Bloomberg analyst and the questions that have kind of been brewing is that there's been a lot of advertising uh they're called rfps and if you're in the media business you know what that is but there's been a lot of rfps coming in asking about certain Windows of time and how quickly you can activate ads this to me what what is it because normally this is a year in kind of thing and year end sure there could be a scenario where people are just you know blowing the rest of a budget that they' already allocated but these seem to be very targeted and very specific and when you get those kinds of rfps which we've received then I'm always questioning what are what are they looking for what what exactly is going on that usually tells me there's a campaign brewing in what is else is out there right now that could be brewing in terms of campaigns when it becomes to when it comes down to marketing just like safeer said there going to be a marketing bloodbath of who's going to try to position first whether it's Black Rock 21 shares Fidelity all the ones that we have out there in terms of the spot ETF here's another uh topic on bitcoin here's how high Bitcoin could sort in the first year of its bull cycle there's a course coming from Michael vop couple of things he's pointing to right here we're getting ourselves into a period of the first year of bull cycle means that most likely we're going to see a high of around 50 to 55k I would agree with that to a certain extent there are some things if you're not uh in our Diamond Circle uh our most recent post where Evan and I actually did uh two analysises on this uh Evan did an analysis on the TA side we we did an analysis on the sentiment side and looking at the long-term sentiment run of Bitcoin in general especially if you look at how it compares to other assets and you kind of compare that to new activity meaning new people talking about a particular investment like Bitcoin it's starting to ramp up so does that mean that we could be seeing entrylevel uh participants or people that haven't been active for a very long time coming back in the space which could contribute to these kind of numbers in terms of 50 to 55k we're also going to have a period where we have uh the altcoins are starting to wake up substantially obviously I think everybody's watching salana madic Avalanche today uh those are all altcoins and they're all in a very positive mode right now and of course ethereum clipped over 2100 uh most likely we could see a 22 by weekend so there's a lot happening there question will be in between are we going to see altcoins do really well and we're starting to see some momentum will that last and does it act like a typical altcoin season that's the question mark that I think a lot of people are trying to compare because if you look at past Cycles versus this this one and the one we possibly are moving into coming out of a bare Market a lot of people look at it in a different way because of all this new speculation around ETFs regulation structured Capital the coming of age of this asset class all those things that did not exist in the last run between 2019 and 21 so at this point confirmation of the bare Market is over almost close to 100% especially with the breakout of 28k that was the one that basically held the 200 we May so definitely moving forward uh for sure this is another question UBS embarks on uh crypto ETF trading front here in Hong Kong and when I see headlines like this I you know this is one of our analysts kind of brought it up today and I thought yeah this is this is true and that is that we we see these hotpots meaning Hong Kong you see what's happening in the UK also the EU is there an opportunity especially timing wise because we the US is not prepared from a legislative front to be able to adopt to this quickly the only two that possibly could happen quickly and again safer and I talked on this uh earlier this week if you guys haven't seen that video go back and watch that video because we got into a lot of things around eth ETF as well as the Bitcoin ETF and the point being is is that Bitcoin as an ETF yes that's going to be very positive for the markets here in the us but we still have challenges of a lot of these funds and a lot of these uh strategies and Innovations especially in the fintech field moving offshore and that's a problem because unless we get regulatory Clarity even though we see some push back now from Congress we've got to be able to see action and I think that's the key Point that's going to be uh taking place here couple of tweets that I thought were interesting Michael sailor I mean this guy looks like an absolute hero right now uh and if you think about sailor and where people have looked at him many people I think doubted what sailor's conviction was towards Bitcoin but obviously a billion do in unrealized profit right now that's insane for uh a guy who's basically out there just pushing on the Bitcoin gas pedal for sure couple of three tweets here I put out a tweet this morning and this was in reference to Peter St an's statement around household debt and all the problems and and this is something that I think a lot of people don't necessarily understand even in in my circle I you know I still do these uh weekend uh training sessions of high net worth individuals and even they who are very astute in the financial markets are still still trying to understand how to overcome these inflationary and these credit POS positions that have put the markets into kind of a bit of a tizzy and as soon you'll understand infinite opportunity in the crypto outpaces all this credit and inflation resiliency is a key meaning you got to stay in the markets and in a time where you can be you know a normal com common person can front run the system this is something that really is an opportunity so you kind of have to Choose Wisely what I mean by that is choosing wisely of traditional Finance or going in to No Man's Land a place where you truly can get on the front end of an innovation that is happening and I'm not the only one that kind of talks about this here's ramala he's talking about this kind of amazing how Wall Street industrial complex missed the best performing asset class of the year every major Bank JP Morgan uh Goldman Morgan Stanley everybody zero exposure and then uh gbdc and e e are up of course by contrast to scrobble over how well positioned going into the quarter so I like it stay non-consensus very good one and then raw op pal this is a good tweet right here remember we all have been given a gift of being able to front run Wall Street Silicon Valley and the main street in crypto and I think that's the cool thing here is that you guys do because you're watching our show you're already ahead of the game you're already way out in front of 99% of the global population remember we're only at 1.5 trillion right now and Bitcoin sure that's that's really exploded but we're still a trillion away from an all-time high possibly another trillion on top of that from the next Market high and who knows where we could be going beyond that in terms of how this Market flows out you have one job that's not to mess this up uh same rules apply since 2012 no naked leverage you should not be leveraging and no fomo don't get crazy and start foming in on things and of course do expect some pullbacks I agree with him and then you know kind of zoom out have a long-term view of the of the projects that you're you know convinced about you have conviction about whatever they are you know you guys believe it you do your research and uh it's easy to kind of follow along with those kind of tool sets uh JP Morgan you know when you think about where this is all going JP Morgan adds Holy Grail payments feature as part of their blockchain push I mean that's Jamie Diamond right there the guy that was one of the biggest futters about blockchain that ever was I almost wonder if Wall Street knew they were coming into this space years ago they just were trying to figure out a way to get into it and now it's constructed in a way but unfortunately it's not turning out as well for Wall Street because most of the market is paying attention when I say most of the market the crypto ogs the people who are really understanding where this Market is going couple of points in the article uh Morgan is giving institutional clients more control over payment via JPM Co coin marking the company's latest blockchain related Milestones so this is just showing more faith in the the idea behind blockchain technology it's the ideal infrastructure to which programmable payments can be applied and enables Rule and bank accounts to be integrated with a native manner enabling uh cases including Dynamic debits multi-party escrow accounts this is what changes traditional tokenized Securities or traditional Securities into tokenized Securities speeds up the speed feeds up the chain and also starts to do things in terms of making the financial markets really 24/7 uh real time and I think that's the cool thing that really is uh starting to play out here of course Onyx if you don't know much about Onyx go research that because you'll learn quickly how this network could be one of the next uh frontiers of tokenized assets last up here a couple of big um Wall Street firms now ramping up efforts to tokenize assets you've got State Street Global advisor show an interest in tokenized exchange traded fund you got Matteo andreo who is of course the head of their EMA at State Street said we'll be looking at tokenize uh tokenization of ETFs Black Rock already Larry Fino he commented on this in in the letter to shareholders that there's an operational potential for some underlying Tech he's talking about blockchain City Group hitting on this you get the you get the picture is this is structured Wall Street at its best and they now have come to the party in understanding where this is going so what's the first party favor that's going to happen it's going to be the Bitcoin ETF everything is hinging on that control and I think between now you know all the way back to the first tweet that that Mike hit on is right now you are in a very very interesting time between now and when that ETF occurs you know sit back watch enjoy I love to kind of quote Mike alred there but the point being guys pay attention I know you guys are if you're not already uh subscribed to our Channel make sure I'm subscribed now it's another way and hit that little bell because we're going to be starting to roll out a little bit more live streams trying to get you guys updated on more but if you're not in our Diamond Circle that's really where you can catch some of the additional Alpha and more content that we don't do here on the channel of course if you want to catch me out there on X it's at Paul Baron we'll catch you next time right here on Tech bath