저자: Ken · 외국인
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CHPY(고수익 반도체 ETF, 2025.4 상장)와 SOXX·SMH를 가정 기반 모델(50퍼센타일 가정)로 5년·10년 후 자산가치와 연 소득을 비교. 가정 하에 CHPY가 자산·소득 모두 우위로 나타나며, 배당 재투자 효과 강조. 실제 예측이 아니라 가정 시뮬레이션이라고 명시하고, 용도(인컴 vs 성장)에 따라 역할이 다르다고 설명.
다듬은 글
One of the biggest criticisms I hear about CHIP Y is, "Ken, why wouldn't I just buy SOXX or SMH?" After all, those ETFs have an incredible long-term track record. So, today, instead of debating it in the comments, let's actually test it. We'll compare CHIP Y with SOXX and SMH. We'll look at the historical averages of SOXX and SMH, then use those numbers to build a realistic forward-looking model inside the Simply Money Portfolio Planner.
At the end, we'll compare just two numbers. How much money would you have and how much annual income would your portfolio be producing after 5 years and after 10 years? So, let's find out. Welcome back to Simply Money. One thing I hear all the time is, "High-income ETFs can't keep up with the growth ETFs over the long run." Maybe, maybe not.
The truth is, nobody knows. CHIP Y only launched in April of 2025, so it simply doesn't have 5 or 10 years of live performance history yet. Instead of pretending we know what the future holds, let's build a reasonable model. We're going to use historical performance for SOXX and SMH to help establish realistic expectations for semiconductor investing.
Then, we'll build what I consider a 50th percentile scenario for each portfolio. Not the best-case, not the worst-case, just a reasonable middle-of-the-road assumption, because that's how I make investing decisions. I don't try to predict the future. I model possibilities. Here's how today's challenge works.
Every portfolio starts with exactly $100,000. No additional deposits. Every dividend or distribution is fully reinvested. We're going to compare three portfolios. Portfolio number one, 100% Chippy. Portfolio number two, 100% SOXX. And portfolio number three, 100% SMH. We're going to look at only two results.
First, what is the portfolio worth after five years and after 10 years? Second, how much annual income is that portfolio producing after five years and after 10 years? Those are the two questions retirement investors care about most. How much money do I have and how much income can I generate? And before we start modeling, let's look backwards.
SOXX has a long history. SMH has a long history. That gives us a decade or so of market data to study. We'll look at things like average annual appreciation, historical volatility, dividend yield, total return. These aren't predictions. They're simply the starting point for building a reasonable forward-looking model.
Chippy doesn't have that history. Its primary objective is current income while also seeking capital appreciation through a diversified portfolio of 15 to 30 semiconductor companies combined with an option strategy. Instead of forcing a historical comparison that doesn't exist, we're going to model it.
Now, let's open the portfolio planner. You can see right here we have Chippy, SOXX, and SMH. This is the Simply Money Portfolio Planner. If you've not seen this, these are available down below in the link in the description at Buy Me a Coffee in our shop. All of our tools are available there. I do appreciate those that have supported us through that.
But we're going to look at this in three different segments. For Chippy, I'll enter what I believe is a reasonable middle-of-the-road scenario. In order to set what we forecast our assumptions going forward, we come into the return mode and we click manual 50th. That is the middle-of-the-road assumptions going forward for the individual tickers.
It's not optimistic. It's not pessimistic. Just a balanced assumption. Then it will be the same thing for SOX, then for SMH. Again, the goal isn't to prove one investment is better. The goal is to compare three different approaches using consistent assumptions. Now, let's run the models. 5 years goes by surprisingly fast.
Here's what I want you to pay attention to. Portfolio value, annual income. That's it. Notice what happens. Let's go ahead and check this out. We'll start here with CHIPY. You can see that we have 100% allocated to CHIPY in this model. We come over to the forecast tab and you're going to click on the model which is conservative cuz again, if you look at the portfolio engine, that's where we have CHIPY allocated.
We're just running this. You could put up to 10 tickers here. We're doing this to compare three different tickers. Lots of ways you can use this portfolio planner. Back over to the forecast tab, we chose the conservative model and coming down at the end of 5 years, you can see the portfolio is expected to be around $356,000 generating $62,000 a year.
That's a pretty nice setup looking at 5 years. Again, these are assumptions. We don't know what the future holds. Remember, this is not financial advice. This is for informational and educational purposes only. Know that all investments come with risk, so please do your own due diligence. That's what we would forecast on those assumptions with CHIPY.
You come back over, you see we have SOXX sitting at 100%. We put this in the moderate portfolio. This has nothing to do with conservative, moderate, or aggressive. We're just using these three model options here to build it do it side by side. It still gets the $100,000. Come over to the forecast tab.
We're going to change this so we're looking at SOX and at the end of 5 years, you can see that it is at $198,000 and $1,600 of income. Now, I want to stop here and pause because looking at Chippy, then looking at SOXX, you'd be like, "SOXX sucked." I wouldn't say that SOXX sucks. What we're looking at is that Chippy did amazingly better, and there's a couple reasons why based on these assumptions, and again, they're all assumptions.
SOXX could do way better. Chippy could not perform like we think it might perform. We don't know. But, we want to keep the assumptions the same. That way, when we are comparing, we're comparing under the same assumptions. Now, what you can do is you can go in, you can get this, and you can change the assumptions, and you can put various assumptions in, so you can get a test of how under different assumptions they compare, and not just under one assumption.
We don't have time to do every possible assumption, but that's why we created this tool, so you can look at it, and you can play around with the assumptions you feel comfortable with. But, we are today comparing under these assumptions, and I would still be happy with that. Think about that. You've almost doubled your money in five years.
That's incredible. That's a great return on investment. So, it's not that SOXX did bad, it just underperformed what the assumptions said would show Chippy doing. And we want to come back over to the portfolio engine. We have SMH. We have that set in the aggressive model here. Come back to forecast, change it to aggressive, and here you can see it would be predicting about $218,000 with $2,200 of income.
What is it that you notice? Chippy's massive distributions combined with full drip, it made this explode. And that's where a lot of people think, "Well, if this can maintain, this could be an incredible opportunity because what you're doing is you're not just appreciating, you're buying more and more and more shares." Now, this is a very linear projection because it's showing whatever returns we have in there, that it's getting that week over week, month over month, and just continuing to do that.
Where we know that's not how the stock market works. You go up and down, up and down. In the high yield fund like Chippy can actually benefit in those types of situations because when it's coming down, you're accumulating more and more shares. And although you miss some of the upside, you have more shares to grab a lesser of an upside.
I don't know if that makes sense to you, but if SMH and SOX get 100% of the upside, and let's say Chippy only gets 80%, but it's accumulated so many more shares that possibly it gets the 100%, maybe even more. Maybe it doesn't get quite as much because the upside value has increased because you have that many more shares that are gaining the 80% of the value.
I'd rather have 1,000 shares gaining 80% of the upside value than I would 100 shares just gaining the 100%. If you do the math, it always works out. But we don't know. We don't know if SOX and SMH are going to skyrocket and do way better. Again, these are based on the assumptions we set in here. That is the assumptions we've made.
We'll go back to the conservative, and we're going to compare these numbers. Now, if you extend the timeline, and let's see what happens. We go back over here. We're going to go back to Chippy, but now we're going to look at 10 years. 10 years changes everything. Although that was a pretty big gap, almost double of SMH and SOX because of the reinvestment of all of those distributions.
And again, we're making some assumptions. We always have to keep that in mind. We don't know. So, assumptions. Would I base my investment decisions simply on this one assumption? Absolutely not. But what I do is I run lots of assumptions, lots of variations, and model different things to see what do I feel comfortable with for me because remember personal finances are personal.
You have to know what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is, all those types of things. Because compounding is finally beginning to really happen in this 10-year period we're going to look at. We're going to see some major differences going on here. This is where it really begins to separate itself.
Let's go back to Chippy. We'll come over here to the forecast and we'll come down to the end of 10 years and look at that 1.5 million and this is just to me crazy. Now you're looking at annual income of $302,000. $28,000 a month that you're generating off of this. That's pretty incredible. And we know that we're set up for socks in the moderate.
You can see that's at 400,000. Still very healthy. In 10 years, you're four-folded your investment. If I invested $100,000 and in 10 years it grows to 400,000, I'm happy with that. These are all assumptions. Your annual income, $3,800. Now let's go to SMH. Go to the aggressive. We can see here $486,000 with $5,800 of income.
So in these models, and again, this is based on the 50th percentile assumption moving forward, this is what we have. Now I want to look at something else. We're going to do the 5-year model. We'll come back over here. We'll set it to conservative. Come back to 5 years because I think making assumptions forward for 5 years is a little easier than 10 years.
Do we have any idea what the next 5 years are going to hold? Absolutely not. With minimal data, it's easier to look at something over the 5-year period. What do we think the semiconductor market's going to do in the next 5 years? Doesn't mean we won't go through a recession. Could it be in these next 5 years?
Possibly. If we forecast for 10 years, more likely. If we forecast 20 years, almost definitely, multiple times. We don't know again, but I want to come over here and I want to show you the assumptions you can make. We can change this from the manual 50th. Let's just go off what the historical data has shown.
Now, when we come back to the forecast tab, we have Chippy at 5 years at 436,000, $103,000 of income. If it continues performing as it has over the last year, this is what we could anticipate over the next 5 years. Will it hold that? I don't know. I don't think so, but that's again my opinion. What would SOX do based on its historical data if that continued for the next 5 years?
Again, you're looking at a very healthy $209,000. It's the income that you're seeing the difference because look at that, you're more than doubled with Chippy and you've accumulated, think about how many shares you've accumulated over this time cuz every one of these payments, see this income reinvested is buying more and more shares based on the share price at the time and it becomes a snowball that grows very fast.
Then, you look at SMH. Now, this has done way better because its historical has been better. If we look at this assumption, now Chippy and SMH are looking a lot closer. You could say, "Well, I think I like SMH." For whatever reason, you could choose that. And if we come down to the 10-year, 1.6 million, we'll compare that to Chippy, 2.4 million.
Look at that annual income. That is the power of those dividends reinvesting. Again, the assumption that that's going to continue paying like it is and has for the last year that it's going to continue for 10 years. I don't know. I don't think so. Well, what do you think? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
There's a lot of assumptions we're making here, but that's how investing works. You look at the historical data, you look at the underlying funds, you look at the financials, you look at the environment, geopolitical situations. You look at a lot of different things to decide, "Hey, is this a fund I feel comfortable with?" I look at things like the semiconductors, AI, all that's going into that that I think, "Hey, this is a good investment in the near future and I want to be a part of that." Then I have funds like SCHD.
These are just tried and true steady companies. They're not exciting. Yeah, Coca-Cola, you have companies that have just been around for years and years. They have companies in there that just are considered boring, but they're consistently growing and consistently paying and growing their dividend and I like that.
The combination of those, that's how you make up your portfolio, your team, that diversification, different funds doing different jobs. And for these here, I don't compare these in a normal situation. I'm doing this because this was requested by a viewer and I thought it was a good exercise to do. We're comparing semiconductors, so we're comparing growth verse income.
But in my book, the way I set up my portfolio, I would look at these as two different situations. Yes, I like semiconductors, but now what is the job I need? Do I need pure growth? CHIPY is part of my retirement income team. I put that there. SOXX and SMH, as you can see, don't produce the income. If they have exceptional growth, down the road I could sell some and convert it into something that produces income.
But that's not the job I'm hiring it for. Now, if I'm looking for something for future team or the foundation team, perhaps I'll look at SOXX and SMH for there because it's not about the income and I don't have to worry about NAV, I don't have to worry about whether the yield's going to sustain or any of that.
They have different jobs. We're comparing this more of a sector growth verse income type of scenario. And this really wasn't a battle between CHIPY and SOXX and SMH. It was a comparison of three different investment philosophies. SOX and SMH are primarily designed to maximize long-term participation in the semiconductor industry.
CHIP is designed to generate meaningful current income while still participating in some of that industry upside. They're trying to accomplish different jobs. That's why I don't think the question should be which one wins. I think the bigger question is which one solves my retirement problem. If you're 35 years old, you may choose one answer.
If you're 65 and replacing a paycheck, you may choose another. That's why I always say personal finances are personal. I hope today's comparison showed you something important. The goal wasn't to predict the future, it was to remove some of the guessing. By modeling reasonable assumptions inside the portfolio planner, we can compare different strategies before investing real money.
And that's exactly how I make many of my own investing decisions. I don't just ask which ETF has the highest yield or which ETF has the highest return. I ask, "What happens if I actually own this for the next 5 or 10 years?" That's a much more useful question. If you'd like to see more head-to-head modeling videos like this, leave your ideas in the comments.
Maybe next time we'll compare SCHD to DGRO or SPY I to DIVO or another matchup you've been wondering about. Until then, remember every ETF has a job, every job has a purpose. We'll see you next time on Simply Money.
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