저자: 미상 · 외국인
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3년간 매월 TECL 적립 후 평가액 76.5M엔, 수익률 671%로 공개. 지난주 기술주 반등(TECL +6.37%, SOXL +28.56%, TQQQ 대비 강세)을 CPI·PPI·유가 하락·TSMC 5월 매출(+30.1%) 등으로 설명. 3배 레버리지의 변동성·원금손실 위험을 강조하며 이번 주 FOMC(6/16~17), 소매판매 등 이벤트를 점검하자는 내용. 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
Hello. This is Bank EFP support. First, here are my TECL results as of last weekend. I have been contributing the same amount to TCL every month for three years, from June 2020 to May 2023 . Since then, I've been working all night, rain or shine . The appraised value is 76.5 million yen . The unrealized profit/loss is 66.5 million yen , and the profit/loss ratio is 671% .
Compared to last week, it has increased by about 4.7 million yen . Rather, it's more like the forwards saw a rebound after a significant drop . When the valuation changes by several million yen in a week, that's quite a large amount of change if you just look at the numbers . High-tech leveraged ETFs may continue to experience rollercoaster-like market fluctuations, with sharp declines and rebounds .
Even in times like these, it's important to remain calm, remember your original objectives, and stick to your investment rules . For me, TCL is not a main investment, but a dream investment. My main investment strategy is index investing, and I'm still steadily accumulating funds through the NIS course .
First, I'd like you to see my track record . From here, I would like to explain the movements of TCL TQ99 Sokusuru over the past week based on objective data . Last week, all three stocks rebounded . Sosul, in particular, has risen by more than 28% in just one week . Since it had fallen sharply the previous week, we will examine how much of the losses it has recovered, and why only this stock rebounded so strongly .
First, here's an important premise . Leverage means a lever. TCLTQ99 Instant Sell aims to trade three times the daily price movement of the target index. This system aims to triple your investment not only when it goes up, but also when it goes down. Furthermore, since it is calculated based on daily price movements, long-term returns will not simply triple .
The price fluctuations are very large, and there is a possibility that the principal amount could fall significantly below the initial investment. This video is not an investment solicitation. I will separate the facts I have confirmed as an individual who actually owns a TCL from my own opinions . Please make your own investment decisions .
Here are last week's stock prices. DECL was trading at $215.49 at the close of trading on Friday, June 12th . The return over one week was +6.37%. TQ999 was up $77.52. The other stock was up $234.68, a gain of 28.56% . All three stocks rose, but there was a significant difference in their strength. The 28% increase in the immediate market is particularly noteworthy.
Last week, while technology stocks as a whole recovered, the rebound in reaction stocks was particularly strong, wasn't it? Therefore, Soxul stood out among the three stocks . However, in the previous week, TCL fell by 17.4% , TQ99 by 13.61%, and Sokusuru by 18.63% . It's important to understand the context of the rebound from the previous week's decline , rather than just focusing on last week's rise in isolation .
So why did the market rebound last week? Let's start by examining the factors that supported the overall market . The first is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was released on June 11th. The overall index showed a 0.5% increase in the previous month's expenses, and a 4.2% increase compared to the same month of the previous year .
Looking at these figures alone, prices appear to be quite strong. On the other hand, core sales excluding food and energy were up 0.2% compared to the previous month's spending, and up 2.9% compared to the same month last year . The core number is a figure that shows the value of prices excluding food and energy, which have large and easily fluctuating prices .
Simply put, while the overall figures were strong, it could be interpreted that the details hadn't deteriorated in a single direction . If inflation is stronger than expected, the US central bank will be less likely to lower interest rates. High interest rates are a headwind for technology stocks, which are expected to see future growth.
This time, the market showed signs of calming down, which eased some of the concerns about interest rates that had intensified during the previous period . The second reason is the expectation of a shift in risk due to the decline in crude oil prices . Last Friday, the price of blended crude oil fell to $87.33.
Rising crude oil prices could push up overall prices through transportation and cleaning costs. Conversely, a drop in crude oil prices could lead to expectations that inflationary pressures will ease somewhat . Furthermore, the view that tensions surrounding the situation in the Middle East were easing somewhat also contributed to investors' sense of relief .
The market was heavily sold off the previous week, and this was compounded by factors such as the composition of inflation and lower oil prices. This was the major trend that supported TQ99 and TCL . The confirmation of reactionary demand is what particularly strengthened the immediate rebound. TSMC announced that its May sales increased by 30.1% compared to the same month last year.
TSMC is contracted by many companies, including NVIA and Apple, to manufacture recoils . Therefore, TSMC's sales figures serve as one indicator of the actual demand for AI-related and high-performance reaction bodies . This is important. The stock price didn't rise solely on expectations for AI; the strength of the rebound demand was also confirmed by actual sales .
Last week, reaction stocks fell sharply. Following the confirmation of strong sales, there was a rebound in the oversold stocks. This strategy aims to achieve three times the daily price movement of the reaction stock, so the rate of increase will be larger when the entire reaction stock market recovers .
However, just because the stock price rose 28% in a week doesn't mean that all the concerns about it being a reaction stock have disappeared. Investment in AI is becoming very large. How much of the money a company spends can it recover in the future as sales or profits? The market is now taking a more critical look, not only at the strength of demand, but also at whether the investment will yield returns commensurate with its value .
In Oracle and Adobe's earnings reports, attention was drawn not only to the growth in AI-related technologies but also to the investment burden and future monetization. In other words, the demand for AI is strong. However, the fact that the market doesn't automatically go up just because it has the word "AI" attached to it means that the market is making calm and rational judgments .
The market is such that there are differences between companies depending on actual demand, investment amount , and how it translates into profits . Three stocks rebounded last week, but not all of the news was reassuring . The Producer Price Index (PPI), released on June 12, showed a 1.1% increase compared to the previous month and a 6.5% increase compared to the same month last year .
PPI is a metric that shows how much the price increases as a company develops a product or service . If the prices of materials and energy that companies purchase rise, those costs may be passed down to consumers in the future. This time, the impact of energy prices, particularly gasoline, was especially significant.
While the short-term CPI has shown some stability, the PPI indicates that concerns about inflation cannot be completely eliminated . The yield on the US 10-year international bond was also 4.485% as of last weekend . The 10-year international yield affects not only mortgage and corporate borrowing rates but also stock valuations .
High interest rates tend to undervalue the present value of profits that companies will generate in the future . Technology stocks, in particular, which are expected to see significant future growth, are susceptible to the effects of high interest rates. To put it simply, last week concerns about interest rates eased somewhat, and stock prices recovered.
However, interest rates haven't fallen enough, and concerns about inflation remain. Therefore, it's still too early to conclude that the rise in technology stocks has fully resumed based solely on last week's rebound. These are the factors that supported last week's rebound and the remaining headwinds.
Next, we'll broaden our perspective and examine the positions from the year's location to last Friday . This graph compares the year-to-date movements of three stocks, with the trading volume in 2026 set as 100. As of last Friday, the annual acceptance rate for TCL was 82.37% . P99 is up +48.08% , and Sokusuru is up +396.78% .
Looking at the numbers alone, it seems that immediate action is overwhelmingly stronger, doesn't it? However, looking at the graph, it didn't rise in a straight line. All three stocks experienced significant fluctuations multiple times between January and March . As a result, at the end of March, there were instances where the levels fell significantly below those at the beginning of the year .
Subsequently, it recovered rapidly from April to May , with immediate gains in particular showing a significant increase . Reaction stocks are particularly volatile. You can understand this, right? TCL saw a rise of approximately 82%, though not a dramatic one. PQ99 appears to have relatively calm price movements among the three stocks, but it is still down about 48% from its yearly target.
Next, let's check the drawdown. Drawdown is a figure that shows how much a stock price has fallen from its highest price up to that point . The maximum drawdowns in 2026 were -40.48% for TECL, -33.49% for TQ99, and -43.47% for Sokusuru. All three stocks recorded their maximum drawdown on March 30th.
Next, here are the current values as of last Friday. TCL is down 21.15% from its recent high , TQ99 is down 11.12% , and Sokusuru is down 1.35% . Looking at this, you can see that even among 3x leveraged ETFs related to the same technology sector, their movements differ considerably depending on the underlying index.
Sosul, which concentrates on the reaction phase, is very strong in upward trends, but when headwinds appear, the decline tends to be deep. Because TQ99 is diversified across the NASDAQ 100, its maximum drawdown is relatively shallow compared to the other two stocks . PCL, which is mainly composed of large-cap technology stocks , fell by as much as 40% this year .
With 3x leveraged ETFs, declines of 40% or more occur almost every year. Let's re-examine not only the final rate of increase, but also whether the investment can withstand the declines along the way , and whether the investment is exceeding the risk tolerance . Next up are this week's featured events.
The most important event this week is the FOMC meeting, which will be held from June 16th to 17th . The FOMC is the meeting that decides on U.S. monetary policy. In Japan, it's similar to the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Board . The focus this time isn't just on whether or not the policy interest rate will be changed.
The Federal Reserve's outlook on the future of the economy and inflation, and whether it anticipates or will not cut interest rates this year, are crucial. Following the meeting, there will be a press conference by Chairman Powell. Even if interest rates remain unchanged, a strong emphasis on inflation could lead to higher interest rates, potentially creating headwinds for technology stocks .
Conversely, if inflation is expected to stabilize and there is room for further interest rate cuts this year, interest rates will fall, which could be a tailwind for TCL and TQ99 . However, it is not possible to predict the outcome in advance . Stock prices fluctuate based on the difference between the announced information and what the market had anticipated beforehand .
The next important factor is the small sales figures for June 17th . Retail sales figures show how much Americans actually spend on shopping. If consumer spending is too strong, it may be seen as an indication of a robust economy, suggesting there is no need to rush into lowering interest rates . Conversely, if consumption remains weak, concerns about an economic recovery may arise in the future.
This is a number that tends to influence interest rates and stock prices whether it's too strong or too weak . The number of housing loan applications will also be announced on June 16th. Since housing is highly susceptible to interest rate fluctuations, you can check both the economic situation and interest rates .
The number of new business openings and insurance claims will also be announced on June 18th. I have several things planned for this week, but the main focus is the FOMC meeting. Roughly speaking, the questions are: To what extent are concerns about inflation still present? Is the economy still strong?
And what are the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts this year ? This is a one-week period to check these three things . Next, I'd like to share one of my favorite quotes . These are the words of John Thie, the founder of Vanguard, one of the world's largest asset management companies . "Stayzers" in Japanese means "Protect the road ." Whether stock prices rise or fall, we remain calm and do not change our strategy.
This quote emphasizes the importance of continuing to move forward according to the goals and rules you initially set . This approach emphasizes considering the risks one can take and sticking to pre-determined plans, precisely because the future cannot be accurately predicted . This is a mindset I hold dear, having held onto TCL for six years without making decisions based solely on emotion amidst real-world price fluctuations .
Thank you for watching this video until the end . I don't think this weak YouTube channel will ever appear in your recommended videos again , so if you found it even slightly helpful, please subscribe and like the video and come back again . Let's continue to monitor the performance of US leveraged ETFs together in the future . thank you very much .
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