저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 정부의 대규모 재정지출을 통화 증발로 메우고 있어 인플레이션이 더 악화되며, 연준의 '일시적(transitory)' 주장은 틀렸다고 본다. 인플레이션의 원인: 1.9조 달러 부양책은 세금 없이 연준의 화폐 발행으로 집행되며, 이는 사실상의 인플레이션 세금이다. 생산은 줄고 화폐만 늘어 물가가 계속 오른다. 물가 전망: 전년 대비 5%지만 최근 3개월 연율화하면 8%이며, 하반기에는 기업들이 원가를 전가하면서 물가 상승이 더 가팔라질 것이라고 봤다. 연준 대응 한계: 연준이 금리를 공격적으로 올리면 2008년보다 큰 금융위기가 올 수 있어 물가를 잡기 어렵다는 입장이다. 국채·달러 영향: 인플레이션으로 달러 가치가 떨어지면 중국 등 외국 투자자들이 미 국채를 팔 것이라고 봤다. 미국채금리는 상승 방향으로 본 것으로 보인다. 통계 비판: CPI가 실제 생활비 상승을 과소평가하며, 1970년대 기준 CPI를 쓰면 2021년 인플레이션은 연 15%에 가깝고 역대 최고 수준이라고 주장한다. 정책 비판: 민주당의 무상 프로그램은 증세 없이 인플레이션으로 재원을 조달하는 것이며, 증세 피해는 중산층과 저소득층에 집중된다고 비판한다. 생산성·무역: 미국 생산성 지표는 62년 만에 최악이고 무역적자는 급증하고 있어 경제가 내부적으로 붕괴 중이라고 평가한다. 재임명 비판: 파월의 연준의장 재지명을 첫 임기 실패를 이유로 강하게 비판했다.
다듬은 글
we don't talk enough about inflation on the show washington tells you it's not happening it's not real of course it's real look at the prices gasoline real estate you name it they are all going up what's going on here and what's going to happen next peter schiff is the first person we called to answer these questions known a lot about the subject he's the ceo of euro pacific capital and an economist peter thanks so much for coming on set what are we watching it seems clear to consumers that inflation is happening will it get worse well it's going to get much worse tucker you have to remember that inflation really is nothing more than a tax you know when the government spends money they they need to get the money the public has to pay for it normally the government would raise taxes and then taxpayers send money to the government the government spends it but we just passed a 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill nobody's taxes got raised but we don't get all this government for free what happens is the federal reserve prints the money and then the government spends it into circulation but when that happens the value of all the money that's already out there goes down and now the price of everything that you want to buy goes up and that added price is basically the inflation tax it feels like it's intentional i mean is this the way that we're going to pay down the debt by making it less costly by devaluing the dollar well certainly as you have inflation you reduce the real value of the debt but the government has no plan to pay off the debt i mean they're repudiating it but the real problem is the amount of money they're going to have to spend just to finance all their current commitments and this is a massive amount of money printing it's unprecedented inflation because it's the money supply that is being inflated and as a result everything costs more because we're not producing more it's actually the result the opposite americans are at home they're not producing goods and services yet we're creating more money to buy the goods and services that fewer people are producing more money fewer goods prices are just going to keep going up and they're it's not going to stop just in 10 seconds is this as crazy as it looks from an outsider's perspective well i don't know how it looks to an outsider but i think to everybody that's live in the united states it's not going to look pretty and the real problem is the fed the fed pretends that it's transitory but when they have to admit that it's not transitory the inflation rate will be far too high for the fed to do anything about it because if the fed actually raises rates to fight inflation they'll create a much bigger financial crisis than 2008 and the u.s government will be forced into insolvency so i mean because our financial system is a global system other countries china most notably buy u.s treasuries with an expectation of return if the value of the us dollar starts falling as quickly as these numbers suggest it is why would any country invest in u.s bonds and government bonds i mean doesn't this threaten to cause you know shake-up well they won't yeah they're going to be selling u.s treasuries i mean anybody that can connect these dots is going to be selling us treasuries and the problem is there's a lot of u.s treasuries to be sold you know and they talk a lot about the shortage of goods the real problem is the surplus of money you know whenever you print a lot of money right it's always a good shortage because the federal reserve can print all the money they want they don't but they don't print products to buy with the money so we have all this money being printed we're not producing a lot people are sitting at home cashing unemployment checks this is a tax it is an inflation tax abide in tax whatever you want to call it but when joe biden says that don't worry only people that make over 400 000 a year are going to have to pay higher taxes to fund all these programs he's lying because every american is going to pay the inflation tax and it's going to hit the middle class and the poor the hardest so i don't understand since you just described it in the clearest possible way when you print a ton of money the value of that money falls it's more money chasing fewer goods fewer people working to make those goods of course you're going to wind up where we are today with massive disruptions to the labor market and spiking inflation why didn't any of the geniuses making these policies anticipate this look even the so-called geniuses at the federal reserve they keep telling us not to worry because according to them it's all transitory but these are the same guys that told us not to worry about the subprime mortgage market remember early on ben bernanke said oh don't worry about subprime it's contained well now they're saying don't worry about inflation it's transitory inflation is as transitory now as uh as uh the subprime market was contained and this inflation crisis is not only going to be worse than the financial crisis it's going to be worse than the pandemic because the government's cure is what's going to kill the economy not the disease itself inflation's bad it's at its highest level in more than a dozen years will it be getting worse what does the future look like is this snapshot or is it the new reality peter schiff is an economist ceo of euro pacific capital we're happy to have him on tonight peter where do you see this going inflation well it's already actually getting worse because the year-over-year number is five percent but if you annualize the last three months it's eight percent increase but i think the back half of the year is going to be a lot worse in the front half because businesses have been somewhat reluctant to pass on their exploding costs to their customers i think they've been hoping the fed was right but i think they're going to give up hope later in the year and they're really going to start increasing prices at a much greater rate do you see a way out of it well unfortunately no i mean the fed is pretending that it's transitory because they really have no ability to control it because it's the fed that's creating it you know every dollar of government spending has to be paid for and right now they're not taxing in spending they're printing and spending so every time you're paying higher prices you're really paying higher taxes and taxes unfortunately are going way up especially on the middle class but that won't reduce inflation no that is inflation the government is causing inflation that's where all the stimulus money is coming from the reason the economy looks like it's growing is because the government has created inflation which creates the illusion of economic growth but the reality is the economy is not growing and you know the cpi doesn't even come close to capturing the real extent to which prices are rising you know a lot of people point to the 1970s and all the inflation we had back then but we had a totally different cpi in the 1970s if we were using the 1970s cpi today we would already be experiencing double-digit inflation how long does inflation have to run above your target before the fed decides maybe it's not so transitory so i think the word transitory has different meanings to different people to many it carries a time a sense of uh of short-lived we we tend to to to use it to mean that that it won't leave a permanent mark uh in the in the form of higher inflation i think it's it's probably a good time to retire that that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean so that's the current state of the cutting edge of financial journalism in this country peter schiff is one of the few honest men left in that business we're happy to get his assessment tonight peter schiff thanks so much for for coming on so this this is a massive change looking not at the cpi but at the actual cost of living in the country it's very obvious that the inflation rate is not seven percent it's much higher than that in that it cost more than seven percent to live here than it did last year why is this not on the front page of every publication well because the government wall street uh the federal reserve has a vested interest in the public not understanding how bad inflation is in fact one of the ways the fed's been able to justify creating more inflation is because they claimed we didn't have enough of it but the only reason we didn't have enough of it is because they were relying on their own highly rigged cpi you know the cpi wasn't always this dishonest you know when when they compare our inflation rates to the inflation of the 1970s we're not using the same cpi that we use then the the annualized rate of inflation so far according to the cpi for 2021 is 7.3 percent if you annualize the the first 11 months that's the worst rate since 1982 but if we were using the same cpi as we used in 1982 the rate would be closer to 15 which means it's the worst year in inflation in u.s history because the highest one year was 1980 when it was 13 and a half percent and this year it's more than that so i guess i don't understand why no one's being punished for this crime i see people destroyed literally destroyed for voting for the wrong person or hitting on the wrong person at a party or supporting their brother over taxpayers or whatever the people who destroyed the u.s dollar seem to be getting away with it how is that yeah well they just renominated uh powell to a second turn as if he did such a great job on his first term it's a complete disaster of course they might have replaced him with somebody even worse but this is the only way the government can finance all the spending you have the democrats now promising all sorts of stuff for nothing we're going to get free uh preschool everyone's going to get paid family and medical leave and no one's going to have to pay for it nobody's taxes are going up we're paying for it through inflation because the money to pay for all this government is being printed into existence and then it's spent into circulation and as it's spent into circulation it's driving up prices and when jim cramer was talking about all the money we're spending yeah the problem is we're not earning it we're printing it and then prices are going up our productivity is collapsing we just got the worst productivity numbers in 62 years in this country our trade deficits are exploding we the economy is imploding it is a mess we just can't see it because we're blinded by all the inflation you
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