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Everything just changed regarding the Tesla and SpaceX merger, and I'll break down all of those changes. Will this become more likely now? Less likely? Will it happen faster, if at all, or slower? We have so many different opinions, I'll explain everything and then tell you what's really going on. The US has just held midterm elections, and there is a "blue wave".
Look at the US Senate, which is now controlled by Democrats. Same with the House of Representatives. They also won five new gubernatorial seats, including in Texas, home to SpaceX and Tesla. And Elon Musk, in the race for a Senate seat from Texas, supported the candidate who lost. And it was in this Senate election that Elon Musk invested over $160 million , according to the Wall Street Journal.
In total, Elon Musk spent at least $474 million supporting various candidates, becoming the largest individual donor in the history of US midterm elections. I fact-checked this through Grok and Claude, and yes, according to public records, he is the largest individual donor in any US election cycle, not just the midterms .
Elon even wrote: "I guess my space lasers for election interference didn't work this time." And then he added: "Sorry, we're having technical difficulties." And before that, he wrote: " Data centers in space are looking pretty attractive right now." Hinting that it will be much harder to build computing power on Earth.
Elon also deleted some of his posts on X. For example , the post "vote for red today" has now been deleted. Grok also confirmed that he had deleted at least one post. So, of course, Elon is not happy with the result. Elon deleted at least two posts. It seems like these are two posts. The second post was a pinned message from around October 29th, where he urged voters to vote for Republican senators.
The post warned that a future Democratic victory could lead to statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, a Hispanic Supreme Court, and the legalization of illegal immigrants. So what does all this mean for Elon Musk , Tesla, and SpaceX? Here's everything you need to know. First, if they want to convict Elon Musk, what will happen?
On November 2, Trump effectively declared that he would protect allies with preemptive pardons if necessary. However, the new majority may make life a little more difficult for Elon Musk, for example, by conducting investigative " colonoscopies." So, this will be a little uncomfortable for Elon, but we can get through this .
So I think Elon Musk is safe. But what about the merger itself? AJ believes that the SpaceX-Tesla merger has simply accelerated, and he is generally pessimistic about Tesla and SpaceX right now. Tesla investor Perji also believes that the Tesla and SpaceX merger will gain momentum. An announcement by the end of the year is now very likely.
Tesla investor Yashu disagrees. He actually thinks it will take longer and the process will be slower. I will also show you what the prediction markets are predicting about this. But could the merger still happen? Alessandro Marz says: “An early announcement would have been made in the current political and regulatory climate.
The November midterm elections could change the composition of the House or Senate, thus creating political uncertainty that does not exist today.” Well , now we have it. The distribution of political power in the United States has just changed. But Congress can't simply veto a private merger. The new House and Senate are increasing the level of hearings, subpoenas, contract reviews, and political pressure, but this does not create a formal blocking mechanism as such.
This certainly doesn't take mergers off the agenda. The next concrete markers remain the work of special committees, any disclosures before Tesla's annual meeting on December 3. So keep an eye on this deadline and the official terms and conditions if and when they come out. And what do the prediction markets say?
Well, Polymarket estimates the chances of a Tesla and SpaceX merger announcement by June 30th are now at 58.5%, down from a previous 63.5%. Until December 31, the indicator remains at 10%, that is, stable and unchanged . By the end of 2027, however, it remains at 66.5%, i.e. unchanged. So, prediction markets don't say " no".
They just say it will take a little longer to announce . Keep in mind, this only applies to the merger announcement, not the actual completion of the merger. Given the circumstances , I think Tesla and SpaceX will now really rush to make the merger happen faster. But just because they're working on acceleration doesn't mean it will actually happen faster.
Because now they know there will be more checks. But I'm pretty sure they're in a bigger hurry now than they were before. They may need a little more time to make the announcement, but I think they are doing everything they can to make the merger happen faster than before. So, it may take a little longer for the announcement to happen , but more work will be done before the announcement itself to make sure everything goes as quickly and smoothly as possible .
Because if a new president is elected from a different party, that's when everything could slow down significantly and even potentially come to a standstill. I'm pretty sure the Tesla and SpaceX committees were waiting for the midterm election results, and now we have them. So now , I think they'll change their strategy a little bit in light of that.
And how are Tesla shares reacting to all this news? Today they are giving us a slightly better buying opportunity. Just like SpaceX shares. The tech sector in general is also down today, so keep that in mind. But the NASDAQ 100 is actually up a bit, and the S&P 500 is up noticeably—up 1.8% today. Markets actually love political stalemates, where the president wants to move in one direction and Congress wants to move in another.
In short, nothing is being done, and that is the market's most cherished desire , says Gary Black, a fund manager. JPMorgan claims that the S&P 500 rises 100% of the time in the 6-month period following a midterm election. 19 times out of 19 in this case. And the S&P 500 actually grows by an average of 13.8% over 12 months.
So, for the broader markets, this result is very optimistic when you look at what has happened in the past. In addition, the president immediately after the election said: "I don't want to just sit around for 2 years and veto everything." He said he was ready to work with newly elected Democrats in Congress.
Furthermore, it points to extremely positive signals. For example, if California, one of the most liberal states in the country, outright bans a wealth tax, which it just did, then that bodes very well for the future of America. The incentive to create wealth remains strong. You just need to make sure everyone wins.
And American voters actually rejected the construction of data centers wherever they had the opportunity. It's definitely more difficult to build data centers in Texas now. And the newly elected governor of Texas, who is now a Democrat, promised to impose an immediate moratorium on the construction of new data centers across the state after her election victory.
And we know that many of Tesla and SpaceX's data centers and new facilities were to be built in Texas. I mean, just remember Tera fab, it's in Texas. So does this mean that this project will now be stopped, paused, or discontinued? Therefore , the proposed moratorium applies to new permits and future projects, meaning it is aimed at stopping licensing and the start of unauthorized construction, not at closing down already active facilities.
So I think we are safe with the projects that we have already received approval for. So, all these Tesla and SpaceX projects that have already started should be fine. But keep in mind that about 25% of all planned US data centers are located in Texas by capacity. And it's number one by a wide margin.
However, SpaceX plans to build most of its new data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, and Mississippi, with only a portion in Texas. But this is not where the main construction will be. And those two states, Tennessee and Mississippi, are controlled by Republicans, so it shouldn't be difficult for Elon to build there .
But in Texas, things can definitely get a little more complicated. Also, Electric Rights Bat, the main directions of space launches and Starlink, are unlikely to disappear anywhere. And they are usually quite critical of Elon Musk. So the fact that they say there are no big problems here is a good sign.
Also, specifically regarding Texas, the local Texas House of Representatives—we're not talking about the entire country, but specifically the state. Democrats now have control there, but Republicans have retained their majority in the Texas Senate . So it's a divided legislature. Now, regarding Texas, the state's incoming governor has signed a letter demanding that Tesla delay the launch of its robotaxi service until September, when new rules take effect in 2025.
Knowing this, you could say that this might slow down Tesla a bit, but they weren't banned from launching at all, it's just a delay. So expect a little more friction in Texas with robotaxi, maybe even a little more in the future. And to be more specific, voters in at least 29 places across the US approved bans or restrictions on data centers in Tuesday's election.
This comes amid warnings from Goldman Sachs that Democratic victories at the state and local levels could put 45% of planned US data center capacity at risk . And as for the projects in Texas run by Tesla and SpaceX, each of them went through the usual local hearings and permitting procedures. The permits were approved because local residents and officials saw the economic benefit of job creation.
Also, Texas accounts for 7 to 12% of SpaceX's planned 13 gigawatts in 2027. And if a particular state stands in the way of rational and profitable deals that benefit local communities and the state, that business will quickly move to other states. This is not higher mathematics. But they may have to offer more bonuses: fund schools, projects, pay people for electricity, water, etc.
While ensuring that there will be no problems with water, noise or pollution . And Zap predicts that the market for AI satellites will also clearly grow rapidly. Here's what the new governor of Texas wants to do about data centers—require jobs for American unions. It seeks greater transparency and lower costs for Texans by forcing companies that own data centers to prove that households will not pay more for electricity or water, taking into account the hidden costs of network upgrades, energy transmission and new capacity.
And then—make data centers self-sustaining by ending subsidies. Brad Gerstner, who manages nearly $20 billion, says at least 10 to 15 gigawatts of expected AI capacity by 2027 may not be operational after the “blue wave,” compared with a consensus forecast of 43 gigawatts next year versus about 38 built to date.
And JP Morgan said that any drop in AI stocks after the Democrats win the midterm elections would be a buying opportunity. The bank expects AI spending to remain high through 2028, regardless of who wins. He sees a divided government as the best-case scenario for the stock market. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average increase of 21% during two-year periods of political deadlock, compared to 18% during one-party control.
And Jeff made a prediction here. I rate the chances of imposing moratoriums on data center operations about the same as I do for legislation on tax breaks for electric vehicles, which could currently reach $15,000 for a new vehicle if passed. He predicts that neither will happen. Moratoriums on data centers were just an election game, and now they will turn into local agreements.
And Joe Boddy predicts and says, “I agree with Jeff, Stephen, Mark, Ryan and others, but what looks like a loss is a mid-term win for SpaceX. "Space simply became the only option for the future." I don't think this is the only option, but it is certainly more attractive now. Plus, there's Canada. We have Alberta, and Meta is building a $13 billion data center there.
And then this video started spreading everywhere. Scott Galloway, a professor from New York, he spoke at this event. And just listen to what he said about Elon. We have come to believe, through this senseless, unhealthy, and dangerous adoration of innovators, that they can live by completely different standards.
Elon Musk is a traitor to the West. We put the Rosenbergs against the wall. He is a traitor to the West and should be judged by the same standards as any other traitor in the West. So, this is pretty radical. Elon also posted this. He said, "True." I vote for this entire post. After Doge, Elon came to a conclusion that most people missed.
He tried to reform the state from within. He failed. And he said it bluntly: the government cannot fix its own deficit. No one in power really wants to reduce it. The system protects itself. So he made the only logical conclusion : if the state cannot be reformed, there are only two ways it will end.
Or a global bankruptcy that is constantly growing, interest on debts eats up the budget, and the system collapses under its own weight. Or robots, AI, and robotics accelerate the economy so much that debt becomes manageable and abundance makes old arguments over deficits irrelevant. This guy from Semi Analysis, which does research and consulting on AI infrastructure, now says he believes in space data centers.
Their initial thesis regarding orbital data centers was that it was unlikely to be economically viable until 2040 or later. And their "Elon scenario" was around the mid-2030s. And this is from a group that is as optimistic about AI as it is possible to be. And Farzad predicts that AI satellites in space are about to accelerate 1,000 times.
Meanwhile, SpaceX is partnering with Qualcomm to build a nationwide Starlink 5G mobile network in the US, with deployment set to begin in 2027. Elon wrote that Qualcomm's technology is great. And Sawyer said he received a message from a man whose friend is a lobbyist for one of the three major U.S. mobile carriers.
He said they are all secretly panicking about SpaceX and the disruptive impact that Starlink mobile communications could have on their businesses, and are trying to work more closely than ever to slow down SpaceX. So lately, Elon has been making enemies everywhere he goes. And this is very interesting: Starlink is starting to appear in airline financial reports .
Japan Airlines reports that Zipair's passenger revenue grew 12.3% from April to September thanks to the fleet-wide installation of Starlink and flexible pricing. Seat occupancy increased from 73.7% to 87.8%. Under the multi-year agreement, SpaceX plans to deploy tens of thousands of cell sites across the United States using Qualcomm DragonWing infrastructure technology.
This is, of course, a big step towards SpaceX becoming a full-fledged nationwide wireless carrier, directly competing with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. New competition is emerging. In addition , Canada's contract is expanding significantly— to nearly 29 million, up from 2.26 million. We see this everywhere.
Starlink is also officially starting free equipment upgrades for its very first customers. So, this is good news for a lot of people. Regarding SpaceX launches, the company is going to have a base in Louisiana. The first launch is scheduled for 2029. The full deployment of the base is designed to support up to 10,000 Starship flights per year.
The state is currently under Republican leadership. Although the race was quite intense. Brett Winton of Ark Invest predicts that by 2035 we may be receiving more energy from space than we currently do on Earth. And now good news for Tesla. The Dutch vehicle regulatory authority, which often sets standards that affect much of Europe, today announced the approval of changes to the Tesla SD system, now called Tesla Assisted Driving in Europe.
This will almost certainly help speed up the implementation of the system in Europe. Here's what's changing. The maximum permissible speed deviation is reduced from plus 50% to plus 10%, which is quite acceptable. This isn't ideal , because sometimes, not often, it happens that a Tesla thinks it can go, say, 30 miles per hour when the actual speed limit is 50 .
This is quite rare, but it still happens . In such a situation, it would be quite annoying, because you would be driving much slower than the speed limit. However, this will force Tesla to receive truly high-quality data about current and effective speed limits. But if, for example, there is road work going on, the situation may change slightly.
Perhaps the most unpleasant scenario is when roadworks suddenly appear and the speed limit is reduced. This is normal. There will be no problems with this. But then Tesla says, "Oh, there's roadworks here, so we need to lower your speed limit." Okay, that's clear. The renovation lasts for several months and then ends.
And now everyone is driving much faster, but unless Tesla updates this speed limit almost immediately, it's going to be pretty annoying. The speed deviation will reset to 0 % when the vehicle is started, with other speed-related features disabled by default. Well, that's a little inconvenient. Tesla will implement these changes via a software update.
This update applies to Teslas with hardware version 4 and above. The agency says their evaluation found no adverse or unintended consequences for the system's operation or the vehicle's behavior on the road. The approval process for Tesla Assisted Driving for use across the European Union is still ongoing at the European Technical Committee for Motor Vehicles.
Personally, I'm not exactly thrilled with this speed shift, as there will inevitably be issues with recognizing real speed limits, but all of this will probably help Tesla gain approval across Europe faster. So, there is both good and bad. Oh, South Korea's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said that Tesla Korea's application for a regulatory exemption for FSD, submitted on October 22, does not contain sufficient technical documentation required to prove safety.
As a result, FSD approval for Chinese-made Tesla cars in South Korea could take a long time. Then I researched the situation in Texas a little more and found some good news for SpaceX and Tesla projects in that state. Data centers in Texas are not going anywhere. The governor of Texas has very limited authority to stop them.
Calls for a pause or moratorium must be approved by the TCEQ, the permitting authority appointed by the previous governor. So, here's how this process actually works. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality is the agency that regulates data center permitting. It seeks to protect the health of the public and the state's natural resources while ensuring sustainable economic development.
That is, clean air, clean water, and safe waste management. It was intentionally structured with commissioners approved by the Senate for 6-year terms with rotation: one seat vacated every 2 years, to avoid abrupt changes in environmental policy. A radical governor cannot simply change the mission or entire institutions with a stroke of the pen.
Abbott's three commissioners oversee this organization. Abbott is a governor who lost the election. The new governor could appoint his representative in August 2027, who would begin serving as an interim appointee, but formal Senate confirmation would likely not occur until the 2029 session. Republicans still control the Senate in the local jurisdiction of Texas.
Meanwhile, this new governor has very limited ability to impose a moratorium on data centers. The Governor may make requests or pressure these organizations, but it is the TCEQ that decides whether to comply with the request . So, as far as Texas is concerned, the situation actually doesn't look nearly as bad as it might seem at first glance.
It looks like none of the projects will stop or at least slow down significantly, at least for now. And here's some good news for Tesla. In October, the number of Tesla car registrations in Germany increased by 290% compared to the same period last year. Total Tesla registrations from January to October this year increased by 206%, reaching 47,000 units compared to the same period last year.
A few weeks ago, Tesla's Giga Berlin factory produced 7,000 Model Y cars in a single week for the first time. This year, Tesla increased vehicle production at that plant from 5,000 to a target of 7,500 units per week due to increased demand, creating 2,000 new jobs by the start of next year. Also , for context, the entire battery electric vehicle (BEV) market in Germany grew by 79.5% in October to 94,000.
And the share of electric vehicles reached a new record of 37% in Germany. What a day it was today overall. It was something special. My name is Matt Posius. I remain extremely bullish on Tesla and SpaceX in the long term, don't forget to like and subscribe if you haven't already , and I'll see you in the next video. Thank you very much for watching.
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