저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 시장이 과열 신호를 보이지만 전반 심리는 여전히 긍정적이라 공매도는 위험하고, 크게 오른 보유분은 일부 익절을 권한다. [시장 과열 우려] 에어비앤비·도어대시 상장 직후 주가가 두 배 이상 뛰어 과열 우려가 제기됨. 에어비앤비는 적자지만 시총 약 1,000억 달러, 도어대시는 현금 소진 중인데 590억 달러 평가. 다만 아직 과열이 확산된 단계는 아니라고 봄. [IPO 가격 결정 구조 문제] 에어비앤비 공모가 68달러→시가 146달러, 도어대시 공모가 120달러→시가 245달러, 현재 373달러로 언급. 크레이머는 주관사가 수요 과열 때문에 공모가를 낮추지 못하는 구조를 문제로 지적. [과거 사례: TheStreet.com] 1999년 닷컴 버블기 TheStreet.com 상장 시 공모가 19달러 예정이었으나 시가 62달러로 개장, 이후 1달러대까지 하락. 같은 기간 상장한 300여 개 기업이 파산했다고 언급. [종목 평가] 도어대시: 그럽허브가 73억 달러에 팔린 것과 비교해 평가가 과도할 수 있음. 테슬라: 시총 5,940억 달러, 연초 대비 649% 상승. 시장 선도주(벨웨더) 역할이라 언급. 레모네이드(LMND): 50달러 때는 좋았으나 두 배 뛴 가격에서는 추천하지 않음. 그린리치라이프사이언스(GLSI): 이틀 새 약 1,000% 급등, 과열 사례로 언급. [투자 전략] 과열 종목 공매도는 '금융 자살'이라며 비추천. 보유 중 크게 오른 종목은 일부 익절 권장. 현 시점 시장 환경(부양책 9,000억 달러, 저금리, 백신 승인 기대)이 긍정적이라 공격적 하락 베팅은 부적합. [출연자 전망] 시장 전반은 긍정적이나 IPO 시장의 가격 결정 구조는 고장 나 있다고 진단.
다듬은 글
My mission is simple: to make them Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. I'd be willing to make friends, I'm just trying to help them earn some money. My job is not just to entertain them, but to educate, teach, and put everything in context. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer.
Is the market about to crash again due to so much euphoria? Yesterday, DoorDash went public with a very high valuation and then the stock almost doubled. Today, wow, how about this? Airbnb went public at 68, then opened at 146, more than double. So we have to ask ourselves, is something going off the rails or is everyone on board?
Good. Look at this day, otherwise very quiet apart from this. The Dow fell 70 points. The S&P fell one point one percent. I mean, it's sleepy. The Nasdaq rose one point five four percent . Does that ever go down? But after a prolonged bull market , like the one we've had, it 's natural to wonder if things have gotten out of control in some parts of the market and if the overexuberance could spread to the rest.
Should Airbnb, which loses money, really be worth one hundred billion? Does a delivery service like DoorDash deserve a valuation of fifty-nine billion dollars when it burns through cash every day? Let's pause a few things right now before this incredible euphoria gets out of control. It hasn't happened yet, okay?
And then it becomes a monster that devours us all. First, I want to do something that I know I'll regret when it's circulating on YouTube in six months. I'm going to play devil's advocate. And imagine a world where action on Airbnb and DoorDash is okay, rational, even normal, and their ratings are perfectly realistic.
How on earth can Airbnb's stock realistically double immediately upon launch? I mean, one could argue that they drastically undervalued the deal because they're big guys who wanted to reward those who got a share of the offer. Too hard to believe? What if Airbnb, and DoorDash too, simply didn't really know their worth?
And perhaps they are like the next Snowflake, manna from heaven. That's just the warehouse at stake. They went public at 120, opened at 245, and are now trading at 373. So, how do you argue with someone who bought that at 245 and tell them it's too much money, and they reply, "Wait a second"? It's at 373.
Why? Why do you own it? "Because it keeps going up ." Well, why do you keep it? " Because it's going to go even higher. I think Snowflake is in a league of its own. Its software saves companies enormous amounts of money, but Airbnb could really come close. I mean, they dominate the vacation rental space.
Their business is fantastic right now because with COVID everywhere, it's safer to rent a house than stay in a hotel. What floor are you on? Very good. Anyway, maybe we should just congratulate CEO Brian Chesky and leave it at that. Congratulations, Brian Chesky. But DoorDash, well, they're just one of many delivery services.
I mean, maybe they're the biggest. Maybe they're the best, but they're still up against Uber Eats and Grubhub, which was recently sold to a European company for $7.3 billion . That's a huge discount off DoorDash's $59 billion valuation. Hey , maybe Grubhub got ripped off. I mean, anything's possible.
We can take this a step further. If you love using Airbnb and DoorDash all the time because of The pandemic, why not own their stock? Oh. It's such good circular reasoning. Who wouldn't want a piece of an iconic company you interact with in your daily life? It just feels right . So what if their stock is currently worth more than all their competitors combined?
Did n't your parents tell you comparisons are odious? Mine did. In fact, I think that precept is what fueled a lot of the buying. Hey, I like the company. Airbnb is fabulous. I mean, hell, who doesn't... I'm not going to a restaurant. This DoorDash thing is cool. Let's keep playing Lucifer's friend here.
Assuming DoorDash buyers are right and everyone else is wrong, you could say this all makes sense because Tesla is worth $594 billion with a stock that's up 649% this year. And everyone likes that. So why buy it now? Why not buy it? Everyone likes it, right? I mean, you see that fart button? Let's buy some Tesla.
Now, in the bond market , we'd call Tesla the key indicator. The indicator. It's the benchmark document that all other bonds are valued against. They rely on it to set their prices. By the way, you know what? It's actually an agricultural term: "bellwether." Yes, the " bellwether" is a castrated ram with a bell around its neck that leads the flock of sheep.
Right now, Tesla is the "bellwether" that Airbnb and DoorDash shareholders follow. Who am I to say that a castrated ram can be wrong? Okay, enough with the castrated rams. At least when it comes to IPOs. I bet it gets them wrong when they price deals and where they open. That's what's wrong right now .
This part is broken. I'm telling you. How do I know? From experience, of course. Twenty-one years ago, I took a company public. It's called TheStreet.com. It was a losing company. No, it was a massive losing company that was beloved for leading its category during the huge dot-com bull market. Who else, besides our rival MarketWatch, had such a good online publication?
Remember, only online. I mean , everyone else we were competing against was still printing on paper made from trees cut down in Canada, shipped to New York, packaged, unpacked, and then tossed onto the lawn, fresh off the press . Back then, we weren't looking for profit. Oh, no. No, we were looking for the first-mover advantage.
Still, I knew we had a large following. What I didn't know was that there was a legion of fans who wanted to get so deeply into the deal— TheStreet's $19 IPO deal— that they came in with a massive number of market orders, and the stock opened at $62. I was yelling at the syndication desk to open the stock lower.
Please, don't let this happen. Don't let ... Everyone who buys is going to lose money. Please, don't open it so high. I begged them. I pleaded with them. And they couldn't have cared less. In fact, they said they couldn't do anything. People were coming in with market orders, with no limits, and the ones who got a piece of the deal didn't want to sell.
So they were going to pay $62 to buy. They could have priced the deal much lower given the demand, but they didn't want to. They said they couldn't control things. They couldn't price it low. And the buyers were... well, what they ended up saying was that the buyers weren't the usual institutional clients who wanted it at a certain price and walked away at another.
They were so crazy about the damn stock that they bought it with market orders and just didn't care how much they paid. So what happened? Well, the stock immediately jumped to $66 after opening at $62. It jumped to $66 around the 10:30. And then it never saw those levels again. That was the highest it ever traded.
Instead, it began the long, sickening decline to $1 and a bit more a few years later, barely pausing along the way; well, at least we stayed in business. More than 300 companies that went public during that same period ended up going bust. Again , you might say that Airbnb and DoorDash are nothing like TheStreet.
They're not . They're major, dominant players with real staying power, and I don't think their stocks are going to crash anytime soon . There's too much momentum, even euphoria. But do they deserve it? Or have the market mechanisms broken down once again? Like when TheStreet went public. When it was supposed to open near 19, then 20, then 20, and ended up at 62.
Before the pandemic, I was worried about the delivery industry because there was so much competition. Airbnb...you know, but now DoorDash has a huge customer base. Airbnb is unique, but it's also spawning its own imitators. I mean, it has Expedia competing, though I still think Airbnb is the winner and the all-time champion.
More importantly, I'm not actually trying to compare Airbnb and DoorDash to TheStreet.com in 1999. That's not the point. What I'm trying to do is compare how stocks perform, okay? And DoorDash—yes, Airbnb—is doing much, much better. I'm just doing this to illustrate what happens when the stock market breaks down, as it did during the dot-com era, and the IPO process fails.
Goldman Sachs, the firm that took TheStreet public, simply couldn't control the stock price in the IPO. Now, nobody wanted it to open at 62—not the buyers, not even us. We couldn't sell; we were locked out. What I fear is that the same thing is happening again. I know that Airbnb's three founders are now worth $10 billion.
dollars on paper. Hey, I was worth $360 million, at least for an afternoon. Sure, I wish I could have sold some of those shares at 66, but the stock...no, you couldn't. I wonder if Chesky and company wish they were unlocked. Maybe they can get an early unlock and the stock can come down a bit. Of course, it's not the only craziness in this market.
Every day we see some stock shoot up, a SPAC, an electric vehicle bet, maybe a biotech like Greenwich Life Sciences, which just yesterday shot up almost 1,000% on basically old news about a breast cancer drug. Good old reliable GLSI, $5 one day, $57 the next, and then $70 today. An epic run, 48 hours.
So what do you do? Uh, just because the IPO market price and the system are broken, do you sell them? Do you buy them? Do you short them? Well, you definitely shouldn't short them. I want I mean, betting against these high-flying companies is just too risky. We're about to have a $ 900 billion stimulus package .
The European Central Bank said just today that they need to take a more flexible approach. China is booming. And on top of all that, interest rates are still incredibly low. Money is cheap. Plus, we're about to be flooded with vaccines, including tonight's approval of Pfizer's vaccine by an FDA panel, which will now recommend a yes to the FDA itself.
Oh, why would you want to short anything in that environment? Honestly, what if these stocks aren't ridiculously overvalued? What if the rest of the market is ridiculously undervalued? I mean, maybe the market is dirt cheap. I'm just hypothesizing. The bottom line: Okay, it's a stretch to say the market is dirt cheap.
We know it isn't by any stretch of the imagination. But the outlook is just too positive to bet aggressively against anything here . If you own something that's risen massively, I think maybe you should lock in profits. part of the position. However, shorting is even crazier than buying Airbnb and DoorDash at these levels, which, by the way, probably won't work right now.
Now , at this point, shorting these stocks , I call financial suicide. Tez in Tennessee. Tez. Hi Jim Cramer, from Chattanooga, Tennessee. No, I love that city. What's up? I'm actually one of those young Robinhood investors you mentioned on the show recently . So I just wanted to say thanks for championing the small investor.
Oh, thanks, buddy. But today I've been going around in circles trying to understand that I don't want to hurt the small investor. I don't want them to get in or out. I want them to own stocks like DoorDash and make that big profit. I do n't want them to miss out on that opportunity. That's not my job.
Go ahead. How can I help you? My question is about Lemonade, LMND. The stock is up almost 30% in the last 5 to 6 days thanks to bullish estimates from Wall Street. I think the company has great disruptive potential. long-term within the insurance market. I'm wondering if you think it's too expensive to buy now and if I should wait for a correction.
It's a great question, and I've been a big fan of Lemonade. I read an article online. There's so much going on. It's like the people at Goldman Sachs have been displaced by Reddit. I mean, I swear. But there's a lot of hype about it right now. Look, I liked it at 50. Can I like it the same at 100? No, I just can't.
I mean, I just can't. I can't like it the same. I feel like calling my mom. Mom, I can't like it the same. It's just double. Like it's a lemonade stand and not an awesome insurance company or at least an insurance agent, so to speak. Then all the young people are like, "There's..." I said, "What are they doing?" "." "Oh, I'm buying some insurance." Okay, look, there's a lot of craziness in this market, but the fact is, the underlying sentiment is too positive to bet aggressively against anything here.
It's the IPO process that's broken. I'm going to make money tonight. I've set it up so that I win in retail with or without the COVID crisis—definitely with the COVID crisis. Hey, let's talk to the CEO. Man, we've seen some spectacular moves that I couldn't resist in electric vehicle stocks, but is the market getting ahead of itself?
I'm going to go over the plays that are having the biggest moves. Oh, you're going to love that segment. And some patients are still delaying essential care out of fear of the coronavirus. Who can blame them? But what is it that's affecting—let's say, how is it affecting the Edwards Lifesciences business?
One second, let me buy some insurance. Oh, I just got whole life insurance . Oh, man, that collision insurance is way too expensive. I'm just going to get the regular one instead of the From Cram with #. Missed something? Head over .
Comments 0