저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
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GTC 컨퍼런스 이후 엔비디아가 PER 기준 아주 저평가라고 주장하며 추가 매수 의사를 밝힘. 블랙웰·루벤·파인먼 등 차세대 로드맵, 휴머노이드·자율주행(GM 파트너십) 등 성장 동력을 근거로 듦. 최근 하락은 매크로 공포와 성장 우려에 따른 알고리즘성 매도로 해석하며 올해 전반기 매집 기회로 봄. 테슬라는 정치적 발언과 무관하게 주가 하락을 우려, 파월 FOMC 발언을 앞두고 시장 방향은 불확실하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
good morning everybody welcome back to another episode of the market open it is a Wednesday March 19th 8:46 a.m I am one minute late but I am here you know I had a weird dream dude had a crazy dream my dream and it happened this morning my dream was that I woke up late for the market open but I wasn't uh one minute late I was two hours late and in the dream I woke up I saw the time it was like 10:50 so it's like two hours since from when I usually start and like I I got up out of my bed in my dream I was like going crazy I was like oh my God people must be waiting y y y and then I wake up in real life and it's like 7:30 and my heart my heart dropped bro because I really thought IID just missed two hours of the stream but I was so happy that that that was just a that was just a regular dream also in the dream I had to travel to do the market open so like I had to take like this weird like Road and I I I there were like animals on the road I don't know what that means or what that describes but yeah it was weird it was it was it was it was it was a weird dream dude I'm getting a lot of weird dreams every day but anyway we're here we're live very excited to be here for everybody uh we got a lot to talk about we have uh jpow today fomc that's going to be really important I'll be live at 220m we will get an actual um an actual uh uh uh decision at 2 pm so uh I'll post that on Twitter but at 2:20 I'll be live and the the FMC conference will start at 2:30 so we'll go through that for 10 minutes and then we'll get into the conference and that'll carry us into the market close so that'll be important um after that well well that's the main thing for today well we'll talk about the Nvidia press conference or not the Nvidia press conference but the Nvidia GTC conference so we'll go through that this morning uh I am more bullish on Nvidia got a lot to say about this I thought this was a phenomenal conference it was a bit boring for someone like me who didn't care about all the little technical details but in general it was uh an incredible conference in terms of the types of things they mentioned and the progress they're making for the next couple years that they're already planning out into the future and I think I think Nvidia is cheap like really cheap I bought more yesterday probably will buy more today and so we'll talk about that uh and then we got a bunch of other headlines from last night Trump and Elon gave two new interviews uh around a variety of topics along with Scott bent he was on the oin podcast so we got a bunch of different things we can look at in terms of how these three are thinking of the current state of the economy um yeah and we will keep going from there and keep doing what we have to do Matt money says Amit and my ex-girlfriend have a lot in common they've always been late well I'm uh I'm happy Mr Matt money doesn't have uh any little Matt money's running around but uh but thankfully I'm here but dude it was a crazy dream imagine like you're you're you have to do a show in the morning and then you have this dream about how late you are like hours late and then when I wake up and I look at the clock and it's like I'm like you know two hours before I have to go live it was just like my heart I was like oh my gosh I was just it it was but in the dream I was freaking out I was like holy crap everyone's probably in the chat waiting it's been two hours like it's going to be so bad I was like what excuse can I come up with for this one literally in my dream I was like how do I BS my way out of this in the dream and then I woke up and everything was okay so thankfully we are here uh good morning everybody meditation mind good morning I'm beneficial what's up Tim says get off the mocktails that's it that's a good that's a good point you know is water a mocktail because mocktail just doesn't have alcohol in it so if I drink like water or coffee can I say that's a mocktail at this point because if it doesn't have alcohol if that's how we're defining it you know I feel like my definition a little bit better a little bit of alcohol is mocking the cocktail you guys want to say it's like just no alcohol like okay well water water is my mocktail at that point Peter what's up Irwin good morning Marie good morning Brent what's up what's up Sebastian thank you for being here Nolan Jeremy did you have a haircut in the dream I did not get a haircut in the dream but there were some weird tigers on the road that I had to travel to get to do the show in whatever Studio I was it was a weird dream bro it was very very weird but um yeah I I I I don't I don't know why I keep getting these weird dreams but I keep getting them every single day Martin good morning thank you for being here Jason Chad George Pierre nick uh Austin what's up what's up crowd control beer and chicken that's a great name Jean what's up Jason Ray uh Walter Kevin thank you everybody for being here let's get started onto the market open all right so I think we'll get started with Nvidia and then uh then we'll keep going from there we got a bunch of things to get into obviously we got a lot of Tesla stuff Tesla actually got an upgrade today by um by uh caner Fitzgerald to 425 Tesla's up right now 30% of the pre-market so we'll talk in a second about Tesla but let's talk about Nvidia um I I think I think my take away from the conference is that Nvidia continues to be one of the cheapest stocks in the market and I know Steve has made this argument many times but right now people are paying 47 times for Netflix in terms of earnings and 49 times or as of last night 53 times for Costco I I don't understand how you fade Nvidia at 28 times unless you fundamentally think there's a problem with the overarching thesis but you get excited for Netflix and Costco now you could say Netflix and Costco theoretically are are don't have this capex boom and bus cycle where eventually this capex spending is going to go away and then Nvidia is not gonna be that much relevant and Costco is always goingon to be relevant Netflix with streaming is always gonna be relevant I guess you can make that argument but based on what I saw yesterday from Jensen I don't think this is a boom and bus cycle that's going to go away anytime soon soon and it's mainly for these three reasons so number one uh Nvidia is already planning their next Generation chips after not only Blackwell but also Ruben and Fineman which is their chip for 2028 is getting uh into R&D and architecture and so they headlined yesterday that said oh Amazon's getting some customers to use their version of the h100 over Nvidia it's like cool first of all that's an anecdotal experience about One customer but even if it's multiple customers they're not going to be able to replicate Blackwell or Reuben anytime soon like like and nvidia's already thinking so far head but I think Amazon and Google selling chips inhouse is a threat but it's not such a gigantic threat which would lead to a PE compression that is double of Costco like that to me just doesn't make any sense number two uh Jensen said that humanoid robotics is going to be one of the biggest industries in the world uh I wouldn't uh I wouldn't doubt Jensen when he says that I mean this is one of the smartest guys on the planet like obviously he thinks that there is a lot of potential here yes is it going to be big business for NVIDIA sure but he also sees what's happening with Cosmos they're open sourcing uh a humanoid OS they're they're they're synthetically training humanoids with Cosmos and then they built out a new partnership with Disney and Google around robotics as well and then finally Jensen said hey all of you guys that freaked out about deep seek it doesn't make sense because you're going to need a 100x more compute because the reasoning which means more infrastructure AKA chips will be required for anyone that has used the Deep research by the way grock today grock 3 launched deeper research so not just deep research deeper research and so when you click on deeper research the the model starts like having even more anxiety with itself in order to find out what's the right answer and that just means there's going to be a lot of tokens and a lot of tokens means you get a a longer time to be able to come to an answer but that answer tends to be more sophisticated and much better so when you put all those three things together along with the fact that they had a partnership with GM uh and look I don't know if this is that threatening to Tesla but I don't think Jensen really cares about Tesla he just cares about self-driving becoming a thing and Nvidia becoming a platform for all the other companies that are not having their own proprietary data like Tesla when it comes to FSD and as long as self-driving does become a thing which as I use it every single day I was using it this morning it feels like autonomy will be a thing in the next decade if Nvidia plays you know even a second role behind Tesla if not the first role in providing that operating system to the entire world then yeah that's going to be another vertical for for them that's massive and that's based on their Cosmos synthetically data trained platform for all these other oems here's Jensen on the GM partnership I'm super excited to announce that GM has selected Nvidia partner with them to build their future self-driving car Fleet the time for autonomous vehicles has arrived and we're work looking forward to building with GM AI in all three areas AI for manufacturing so they could revolutionize the way they manufacture AI for Enterprise so they can revolutionize the way they work design cars and simulate cars and and then also AI for in the car so AI infrastructure for GM partnering with GM and building with GM their AI so I'm super excited about now what's interesting about this is It's Not only just AI for self-driving but as Jensen said AI infrastructure for the entirety of GM's operations which I think is going to be something that can not only make the company more efficient but I think a lot of the other manufacturers are going to be like hey Jensen can you do this for us too like not only the self-driving part but can you do it for completely changing the way we do business the way we manufacture Etc and I think that's going to be a big business for them Automotive is one of their smallest pieces of revenues outside of gaming right now gaming is I think the smallest uh data centers is the largest and I I think that can expand over time now what's also interesting about this is GM had a self-driving product called cruise that they bought for a billion bucks I think a couple years ago they shut it down January 29th and then they partnersh they make a partnership with Nvidia and it's hilarious to me because it's like GM admitted they could not are D internally a self-driving product even though they bought a company that was dedicated to this uh because they'd rather work with Jensen to be able to build self-driving uh or they would have like used their own self-driving crews in collaboration with Nvidia but no they just botched the entire thing that they spent billions of dollars on to go at it alone with Jensen to me that shows a lot of faith in Nvidia a lot of trust in Nvidia and a lot of hope that Nvidia can really begin to solve this problem will they do it we'll find out over time but it does seem very exciting that Nvidia has the ecosystem and infrastructure to get this done so overall look to me I I was really bullish on this uh conference I think it made a lot of sense I think they introduced a lot of things that Pro the cyclicality of the business is not as cyclical as people may think Tesla right here up 3% Nvidia is up 1% now nvidia's again Nvidia is at a 25 PE it's at 116 right now it fell to 114 yesterday why did the stock fall that was the number one question I got yesterday is like well if all this is bullish why is the stock falling I think two things I think number one everyone's afraid of japal today so that's like the easy way out number two um genuinely I think we're going through a growth scare right now and that growth scare is uniquely affecting the max 7 and that's okay but like we're seeing the rest of the market get the rotation to an extent financials consumer utilities Etc and we're not seeing it happen with the max 7 and you would think if the max 7 were down on average 10% each of them that the S&P would be down like 15% like you would if it was 224 I'll be like oh the S&P is cooked S&P is not it's down 5% for the year like that's not too bad for the top seven companies in the world World being all negative your day so I mean I don't know dude I continue to buy Nvidia people compare it to AMD AMD nvidia's forward PE is at 25 amd's forward PE is at or they're trailing 12 months pees is AT3 nvidia's 4p is at 22 so technically a little bit cheaper uh but their trailing 12 months is 103 nvidia's trailing 12 months is 39 and and then you know AMD is just not putting up the type of growth that you would imagine uh Nvidia can put up up along with the fact that their margins are not necessar the same and they're just not the winners in this category also Jensen took some shots at broadcom uh he was asked about A6 which is another form of uh competition towards Nvidia something that opening eyes looking into as well and he basically said yeah like those aren't going to be relevant given the architecture that we're creating over the next couple years um so it was really interesting because it's like he threw shots at a variety of different a variety of different uh uh players here one thing that he didn't do is he didn't mention men um smci he did not mention smci and I I also thought this was interesting because smci is one of their core um suppliers when it comes to liquid cooling for gpus and he did not mention them once smci took a little bit of a hit because of that smci right here was down 9% yesterday currently up 1.79% Dell he did mention Dell took a little bit of a hit as well only down 1.2% but they recovered when they were down 5% after he mentioned them so I don't know what beef he's got going on with smci but in general it really does feel like this business is not going to be as cyclical as people think and and and you know I was on the phone with Steve last night and we were trying to figure out what exactly what exactly is the street missing if it's not the rotation from the max 7 and if it's not uh fears of jpow or sorry what are we missing like why are we so exciting excited about Nvidia but the street isn't and you know I would love to hear everyone's perspective as well either you think it's Cisco and it's like okay the Street's thinking it's going to have some epic collapse and everyone who's buying into it right now is stupid um or the street is just genuinely super scared right now it's a very volatile time y ya but even in the volatility of that this is the part that doesn't make sense why does Costco get 50 times why does Netflix get 50 times for not having a net profit margin or net income margin like Nvidia Costco is like 3% nvidia's is 55% and not having anywhere near the growth Nvidia grew 78% last quarter Costco is going to grow maybe s% it's like what is the street liking about that over Nvidia the only conclusion I can really get to is they think a recession is going to happen and Nvidia gets killed during a recession Costco doesn't but even that is a you know does Nvidia get killed during a recession Costco yes it maybe gets killed a little bit less the multiple definitely compresses on Nvidia but does the Core Business stop functioning in a recession like do GPU sales completely go out the drain I don't think so I think a lot of the people that are buying their chips have the money to spend on their chips so maybe it's recession fears but outside of that I cannot imagine anyone walking away from that conference and being bearish and AMD to my understanding again good company but they did not put up the types of announcements that Nvidia put up that Nvidia is planning over the next 5 years multiple vertical self-driving robotics new architectures for chips like you could say AMD is cheap but then do they have the growth prospects of Nvidia it it seems it seems like it's lagging from that perspective so I don't know I am bullish Nvidia it seems like it will continue to be bullish and uh if the market wants to pay this much for Costco or Netflix I think eventually they're goingon to have to pay a little bit more for NVIDIA but we're going to see Stephen says uh Costco is predictable Nvidia isn't as predictable as Costco so that that's my point and maybe that's where it come that's like a subjective element towards risk taking here this conference along with a variety of other things they've done this year but but based on what I saw yesterday is making Nvidia seem more predictable like humanoid robots seems like they're going to become a thing atronic is a company that raised $43 million yesterday they had a $350 million series a they were over subscribed by 53 million and they're another humanoid robotics company that Nvidia Google Etc are partnering with figure obviously we've seen a lot of progress with them we're seeing progress with Optimus like humanid robots is going to be a thing so if the street just doesn't believe it's going to be a thing then they obviously wouldn't believe nid is gonna have a growth Vector because of humanoid robots but what if they do and what if that growth Vector is one of the biggest markets we've ever seen in history then it's like that well that was pretty predictable right but I guess it's not predictable because you either believe in robots or you don't but if you in hindsight five years from now if robots were easily predictable then Nvidia should be cheap or Nvidia should seem cheaper uh than it is today so those are my thoughts let me know in the chat if you're buying Nvidia we'll see where the price goes today maybe we sell off before JPB maybe we sell maybe we go higher after japal we'll talk more about japal in a second but uh I do think that I I do think that NV is cheaper here and they continue to get cheaper the more the price goes down I mean like the more the price goes down the more the valuation compresses and I have to ask myself am I completely wrong on this thesis or is the street like just scared in the short term and if it if it feels like to me it's not something fundamental it's more algor rmic it's more afraid of the macro Yad y then this becomes a acquisition year for this stock and for a lot of the other Max sens um and maybe this is only becomes a first half acquisition part of the year maybe the second half we rally but as of now it seems like if this is the time to acquire then that is going to be what I'm G to be doing at least for the better half of this year Dan Ives did say he thinks paler will be a trillion dollar company in the next couple years he's at a conference look I love Dan IES but I don't know if paler gets to a trilon in a couple years I think that's a bit aggressive um again I love Dan Ives he's he's one of my favorite analysts but uh I think paler has got to really be able to currently justify their multiples with their growth and then even think of getting to you know expans a 500 billion and then a trillion I I don't think it'll take a couple years is my point and maybe I'm too bearish which I would very happily love to be proven wrong I think it'll take a little bit more time but yes Dan Ives did say that uh at a conference I think like two days ago um so we're going to see how that ends up playing out yeah I'm too bearish at this point Okay cool so that was what we had on Nvidia let's talk about Tesla so we got a lot of elements to what's going on with Tesla this is the first thing I want to show you guys today because this was in my opinion quite disgusting you guys can have your own opinions on this I personally did not like seeing this this was the person who almost became the vice president of in my opinion the greatest country on the plan Planet here's what he had to say about Elon mus today saying on my phone I don't some of you know this on the iPhone they've got that little Stock app I added Tesla to it to give me a little boost during the day 225 and dropping so and and if you own one if you own one we're not blaming you you can you can take dental floss and pull the Tesla thing off you know and take out just telling you saying on my so you know some of you guys might love that because you hate Elon and uh I get it you can you're entitled to your own opinion I personally as an American feel very awkward listening to that because Tesla employs a lot of American people and the idea that he is happy that an American company is losing stock value AKA American workers are losing compensation value net worth Etc and he's cheering that on because of politics that that's the the only reason for this he doesn't like that Elon and Trump are doing what they're doing uh is sad to me it's very very sad and I I I I personally could not imagine this guy was the could have been the vice president of the could you imagine the VP of the United States one of the most powerful people in the planet was making statements that he would be happy to see another American company and their stock price fall I mean I don't know what to say to that dude it's it's really sad in my opinion it is is wanting an American company stock to suffer and cause economic pain for millions of workers because of politics and I I I just personally am am not on board with that now Elon did have a uh a little response to what he said Elon said sometimes when I need a little boost uh I look at the JD Vans portrait in the white house and I thank the Lord so Elon basically saying thank goodness this guy was was not elected look and again you look you going disagree with Elon you can hate his politics you can hate what he's doing all that stuff but I think cheering on an American company to fail is just like not not not necessarily the route to go having said that um we did get some updates on Tesla this morning so we we showed you guys yesterday the the Teslas that were burning down in Las Vegas uh that is now starting to be considered domestic terrorism from not only the president but also from Elon and they're looking into how they can stop that stuff from happening again it's insane regardless of if you hate Elon or not you cannot burn down Teslas like this is like we have to have some country with Law and Orders and I think it's getting a bit ridiculous right now so that happened yesterday probably one of the reasons the stock fell they got a downgrade from RBC of saying that FSD is becoming commoditized that was the reason they fell and then byd introduced some new supercharging stuff that was the reason the stock fell today caner Fitzgerald came out oh and one thing we didn't talk about in the market open which was actually or market closed yesterday because this came out at the end of the day Tesla has received its first approval in a series of permits needed to eventually launch a robo taxi service in California so this is not fullon Robo taxi rid being launched in California but the California Public Utilities Commission granted Tesla a transportation Charter party carrier permit typically used for chauffeur operative Services which allows Tesla the ability to operate a fleet of pre-arranged employee trips but doesn't give them the full autonomy to launch autonomy straight up uh via robotaxi so they're getting closer to launching uh the robotaxi in California but they still probably have to deal with a ton of more bureaucracy and bureaucratic steps probably another few months after the June launch in Austin to be able to officially get it that was one piece of good news yesterday the stock was reacting to that after hours up up about 1% and then today caner Fitzgerald said hey everyone's downgrading them we're going up and uh 425 overweight from neutral 425 and we believe that shares are down 45% year to date that's a buying opportunity robot taxi launch that's an opportunity FSD roll it in China that's an opportunity newer lower cost vehicle that's an opportunity semi-truck production we believe that'll happen by half 2025 and then Optimus bot mass production we think are starting in 2026 and then deliveries will be happening in late 2026 so essentially caner Fitzgerald is one of the only analysts I'm seeing that's going bullish while every other analyst is is is downgrading the stock and lowering their price Target they're upgrading it going to overweight keeping a $400 or $400 plus price Target and saying hey Robotics and FSD is still the story we don't really care about the brand damage we don't care about the lowering of sales we think those two things are going to be ultimately what defines the thesis around uh around Tesla so I mean I don't know if that's enough to say that Tesla's officially bottomed we are up a little bit right now in the uh in the pre-markets and maybe we can hold that after J pal speaks I really do wonder if 215 is going to be the bottom again I am pretty bearish on q1 I think it's going to be a pretty nasty quarter in terms of Auto Sales and I don't know how the Street's going to react to that I did a PLL yesterday on YouTube and Twitter and the question was hey if Tesla gets to 150 how seriously would you consider loading up or or do you think it's going to get to 150 or 300 quicker we got 24,000 votes and it was 6040 6040 60% feel that it's going to be 150 before 300 but a lot of the comments I got said that if we did see 150 they would be very excited to take a buy to that apple and I would be excited as well because at 150 you are discounting pretty much everything that Tesla has going for it outside of the automotive business including energy FSD and Robotics and that to me becomes like a no-brainer maybe I could be wrong about that but I wonder if we see I wonder if it gets that bad either internally in Tesla brain image in Tesla or the broader markets where we get to that point and I guess over the coming months we're going to find out but um currently right now Tesla did get that upgrade this morning and a little bit of a Tailwind based on that robotaxi news from California now Elon did a bunch of interviews last night on Fox News here's a couple clips of what he had to say this is what he said about uh the fire in the Tesla dealerships I have to ask why why do I see people like I I woke up this morning and saw that Teslas will put a blaze in in one of your dealerships in in Vegas I've seen this happen all over the country bullets are being fired charging stations are put a blaze Teslas are being put put a blaze uh you have experienced assassination uh threats of assassination for you and your family what have you done that warrants this because I see nothing that you have done except to help our country uh yeah I mean it's really come as quite a shock to me that there's this level of of really uh hatred and violence from the left um I thought the the left you know Democrats were supposed to be the party of of empathy the party of caring and yet they're burning down cars they're firebombing dealerships they're uh firing bullets into the deal ships they're just you know smashing up Teslas Tesla is a peaceful company we've never done anything harmful um I've never done anything awful I've only done productive things so uh I think we just have uh a deranged it's there's there's some kind of mental illness thing going on here because this doesn't make any sense yeah I think there are larger forces at work as well I mean I don't know who's who's funding it and who's coordinating it because this is this is crazy I've never seen anything like this and look I would tend to agree and I know some of you guys don't like Elon that's fine you don't have to agree with everything Elon does but I would hope the majority of people that don't like Elon don't think it's okay to burn down regular working Americans cars to express a political belief like if you do I think there's something wrong in your head I like I I think there's something anyone who's burning down a Tesla has mental issues or they're getting paid for it because that's that's not the way to resolve whatever problems you have or to show a peaceful protest like America's built off Civil Disobedience and the idea of peaceful protest burning down Teslas especially for people that are workingclass citizens in America right they they did nothing that you should be mad about if you're mad at Elon you're mad at Elon but burning down his customers cars I can't fathom that is is in any way Mak sense so I mean that is a a a brand risk for Tesla right now and hopefully that ends up stopping but I still am very confused how uh people are justifying that rationally as a way to meaningfully protest here's what Elon said about his relationship with Trump as well um if I may one last question um you know when I interviewed you and president Trump together uh one of the questions I asked both of you was are you aware that there are groups that want to separate you groups that would like to divide you groups that would like to see you um not work together I feel it's stronger than it's ever been do you get the same sense I think they're getting desperate because I mean the reason we're seeing this this extreme amount of hatred and violence is because we're actually succeeding in getting rid of corruption and waste if we weren't succeeding in getting rid of corruption and waste they wouldn't care but but we are succeeding thanks without president Trump this would be impossible so I just like to say you know it's only possible with this President um and and we're we've got this narrow window of opportunity with a house senate um and and you a popular vote uh and the really we're just implementing the will of the people and we've got this window where where we can finally take corrective action we can fix the government fix the country and and create a great future um and again that's only possible because of President Trump uh I can't say no good things about him so that's Elon on his uh relationship with Trump at the end of uh the day and how he's ultimately thinking of it so look look I know this perspective is nuanced I know a lot of people might not be fans of Elon I get that people don't like what Trump's doing they don't like Elon and Trump together I get it and you know you can bring up a variety of reasons for why uh the same can apply to how Trump is acting and you don't like his rhetoric and all that stuff I get it but two wrongs don't make a right so you know if you're if you're upset about what Trump has done in the past or what Elon has done in the past that does not mean you burn down Tesla C like that to me is where the logic just there there is no logic at that point you can have a meaningful discourse over why you may disagree on a political uh event or how two people are conducting themselves but the solution is not well let's burn down the cars that were made by mostly American workers and that produce tax revenue for the United States like it's just I I don't think that's the solution and if it's always going to be violence against each other versus actual discourse well then it shows one thing about the side that's engaging in violence versus discourse right and uh I I think that's the the broader issue that we have right now along with what elon's saying I mean at the end of the day uh the American public voted for Trump and if if we live in a democracy and Trump ran on this idea of hey we're gonna cut government spending we're gonna engage in Doge we're gonna do this we're gonna do that you don't have to agree with what he ran on but if that's what the public voted for in a democratic election then if they're trying to implement that agenda you can protest against it you cannot burn down people's cars that's the part that I'm not understanding and unfortunately that's where Happ right now in the United States nonetheless what does it mean for Tesla well it means that there is still a brand risk and it's not going anywhere I would imagine Elon is getting death threats every day Tesla workers Tesla employees are probably having to deal with harassment at their warehouses and and their dealerships and uh this is one of those things again I think for investors you have to kind of Overlook what this is in the short term for the long-term potential if you believe in the long-term potential or you believe that this will take down the entire company for the long term I don't think it will um but this is kind of how we're kind of we're naviga it right now John says AIT sure doesn't sound impartial I I well you know I I I think it actually is the most impartial I think from my perspective you can acknowledge that people don't like Elon and Trump that is fine you don't have to agree with everything Elon and Trump is doing but you also have to acknowledge in my opinion that you don't burn down Tesla cars like I I like does anyone think that's the right thing to do burning down a car in in in the name of protests like I I don't see it that way obviously I'm more of an Elon fan than not an fan you guys know that already I am a proud supporter of Doge I believe what he's doing is the right thing hopefully we can get rid of some of the bureaucratic uh waste I I I don't say I I agree with everything Elon does in fact over the weekend I criticized Tesla for releasing pictures of Optimus and Kim Kardashian but not actually showing any progress right so you can criticize a company criticize a person criticize an Administration without burning down the cars of a CEO who you may disagree with on every political level but the end result being violence to me I don't even think there's negotiation there I just don't think that works I don't think that's how we should do it so when we resort to violence we become a third world country in terms of how we're going to navigate political disagreements and and there's Fierce disagreements people are incredibly polarized I get it like people really hate Trump they I've never seen people be as polarized as they are in Elon uh in the history of like covering Elon for the past four or five years but I don't think that means you burn his cars down and it really makes me think there's more of a form of domestic terrorism going on here that that that is funded by by different interests not just people randomly waking up and taking arson to a Tesla dealership I think there's a lot more that's that's going on here's what Trump had to say on a couple different topics last night this is what Trump had to say about Doge and there's a couple other Clips right here as well look at the fraud that we've caught we've caught so much fraud so much waste so many employees that never showed up to work and we have a judge from a very liberal State who ruled like that so bad for our country so I guess they closed the department they're going to have to re appealing it I guess well not I guess I guarantee you we will be appealing it we have Rogue judges that are destroying our country look at here's what Trump had to say about um the Tesla fires you consider this an act of domestic terrorist I think I think so why I think that if and when they catch the people and I hope they do the good thing is they have a lot of cameras in those places and they've caught some already having to do with that I think that you will find out that they're paid by people that are very highly political on the left meanwhile it's because of Elon Musk everything he did with you consider so Trump did an interview with a bunch of these different topics about Doge Elon there was another part about tariffs that he talked about as well uh before that let's listen to what he said about XI jingping because he will be visiting the United States in the words of trump pretty soon in the readout it also stated that both sides want to get to an improved bilateral relationship the United States and Russia that's true how can we trust that Vladimir Putin actually wants that and that he's not also being influenced at the same time by his close friend um president X of China well look we have our own discussions with President CH of China and he wants to get along also and he's looking to get along and we're looking to get along with him and we will we have a problem of trade where we have a very big imbalance with China with Russia we don't have that much trade and they'd like to and we'd like to also they have some very valuable things for us including very big forms of rare earth they have a lot of Earth you know they have uh a big chunk of real estate the biggest actually the biggest in the world for a country by far and on that they have things that we could use frankly and they that other people could use I think that President X would like to get along and I think Russia wants to get along with the United States I also think we're a much different country than we were uh just uh a few months ago we're a country that's now respected we were not respect it we were being laughed at we had incompetent leadership this was a war as an example that would have never happened if I were president and then finally here's Trump on Canada and a little bit more about tariffs here's my problem with Canada Canada was meant to be the 51st state because we subsidize Canada by $200 billion a year we don't need their cars we don't need their Lumber we have a lot of lumber we got we we freed it up as you know last week we're freeing it up so that you can actually cut down a tree without being you know given the death penalty because it what what these what these radical environmentalists have done to our country but we freed it up but we don't need their Lumber we don't need their energy we don't need anything we certainly don't want their automobiles they make a lot of Auto millions of automobiles are sent in I'd rather have them made in Michigan I'd rather have them made in South Carolina or any one of our you're tougher with Canada than you are with some our biggest adversaries because it's meant to be our 51st trade here's my problem okay so that's the part I hate about Trump uh many times when he talks about this 51st state nonsense like this is it's not happening and so I think why am i showing these clips because April 2nd is going to be D-Day that is going to be the day that ultimately determines what happens in the context of the broader economy when it comes to tariffs and I've never been aan of this entire let's hate our biggest adversaries and and tariff them to death ultimately I don't think Trump is a fan of that either I don't think he realistically wants to put 25 to 50% tariffs on Mexico and Canada what I think he's doing is negotiating and it is a very weird way of negotiating it is obviously creating a lot of volatility in the markets right now but I do think that by April 2nd my gut feeling is that we are not going to have tariffs implemented on those two countries I think we are going to have some form negotiation before we end up getting those tariffs and um as a result we we we won't and we won't actually have those tariffs regardless of if Trump just trying to call Canada our 51st state because first of all Canada's not gonna be our 51st state second of all we do a lot of trade with Canada now they need us more than we need them because their GDP as a percentage of exports is much more relying on the United States same things with same thing with Mexico than than the United States is relying on those two um but we can't you know have a trade war with them like that's just not going to be good for markets it's not going to be good for the broader e either so Doug says right here I think he's negotiating with investors trying to get them to sell stock and buy bonds I agree with that thesis as well I still think he's playing in in in from it on that angle the tenure by the way was down a little bit yesterday currently right now it's back up to 4.3 we need to see what J pal says to see if that comes down but the point is um in another two weeks we're going to have to figure out what goes on with tariffs and um everything Trump saying right now that the reason you know doge is so relevant right now is again it has to do with tariffs and or it has to do with the deficit you could hate Elon all you want but as an as an investor you have to pay attention to the implications of Doge for the broader economy and the implications of Doge on that 10-year bond because if we actually do get it to come down in any meaningful way because of Doge having any savings if they're able to get any savings ped given uh what happened with us Aid that got shut down by a federal judge then we should see some momentum if not then we're going to continue to have a spending problem and it looks like that spending problem is not going to stop anytime soon let's listen to Julian Emanuel this is one of my uh favorite analysts from evercore and get his perspective on what's going on in the markets he believes that we are not headed to a recession or a bare Market anytime soon and he lays out a couple of details for why we're likely going to remain more bullish than not price uh and uh and expectations so so valuations have gone from very expensive not egregious very expensive to just expensive H but when you think about the elements that end bull markets valuation alone is not one of them uh you typically see what we would characterize an uncooperative fed that's not going to be the case this time the FED is going to cut rates uh twice uh this year in our view uh fomo certainly not there uh after the last month's performance uh and then the bond vigilante and I think if anything this has been a positive the fact that whether it's due to a grow scare or a policy or what have you yields are contained so what you're left is then the probability of recession now the dislocations from the policy uncertainty have certainly raised that Spectre in people's minds we think what you're actually pricing in right now is essentially a full-on case of stagflation and the reason we say that and it's not our base case that it turns out that way is because when you look at past stagflation episodes the market tends to average down 10 on an annualized basis we're really trading along those lines and you see leadership from the very defensive sectors Staples and healthare put that all together and us we think a lot of the pain has been discounted the negativity is still quite intense yeah that uh Bank of America Global fund manager survey that was out today actually had stagflation as sort of the highest answer among people said what kind of environment are we in we need to Define that maybe a little bit is that just that you know there's an upward bias to inflation and risk to growth I mean it's obviously not 10% unemployment and 10% inflation so we actually think that there are break points and psychologically and actually this volatility I think in a lot of ways confirms this stagflation to us is anywhere from zero to one and a half% on US GDP obviously less than zero is is more akin to recession and uh inflation core pce at 3% or higher okay now look it the data has been mixed and there were elements of last week's inflation reports that tell you that if we didn't have tariffs staring Us in the face we probably start to continue on that path towards lower inflation and it's not clear that that isn't going to be the case right yeah we're still kind of within the bounds I guess of that you mentioned that we don't have an uncooperative fed we we have the the decision tomorrow do you think there's a risk that the FED is going to be interpreted as uncooperative at some point if they essentially say we're just St staying Pat as long as possible I I I think again part of this dialogue is separating the soft the sentiment data from the hard the statistical data and the statistical data has yet to really say that we're in a you know a substantive weakening of the economy which is why given all the noise around Doge and potential job Cuts there the data over the next number of weeks is likely to be important but but look a week and a half ago chairman po made the point that he felt that the Soft Data and the hard data we're separate and we do think that he's going to be able to thread uh the flation part of the Stag flation needle it's the Stag part that's gotten people concerned at this point and they're also concerned because of the Atlanta fed GDP now projections of negative growth so that's going to be very important to take a look at but what Julian is saying right here is basically all the core tenants that would create a bearish market are not happening the only thing that is there which is what he said In that clip that that that LE that could lead any person to feel okay like it's 2022 is recession because everything else is not really adding up to the levels that it needs to add up to yes the foreign trade policy um uncertainty is definitely there and that's creating some volatility as well but kind of the core things that would typically end a bull market is not what we're seeing play out into effect and maybe the data gets a lot worse maybe we start getting a tons of job losses based on the non-farm payrolls private payrolls reports Etc and we'll get the new ones in in about three weeks um but if we don't see people losing their jobs it's really hard to say all right we're getting into some massive recession and as a result their advice ever core and a lot of those other firms are you hold your nose and you buy the dip because these are opportunities at the end of the day where valuations have press multiples have gone down but that doesn't mean actual earnings growth meaningfully has gone down it just means valuations aren't as expensive as they were before which is uh more of an opportunity uh xrp you guys are mentioning it it is up eight% right now they uh the the the lawsuit against them which I don't even know what the lawsuit is about it got dismissed so for all the xrp heads in the chat congrats I don't own xrp I have a friend who you guys know about who swears this thing will become the next like trillion dollar currency um so it's now on its way to get there up 9% after the case uh is being dismissed shout out to Steve dude Steve Steve is probably very happy that this is happening if he even knows that this is happening right now oh wow Steve look at that he just sent me a text about it of course of course he would be happy about this there you go he sent me a text he's like did you see this about xrp yes Steve I saw it about xrp all right Wednesday March 19th 9:30 a.m.
the St Market once again is open all right wake your ass up we have a Green Market at least for now let's see if it stays green but we got smci up 2% Nvidia up 2% AMD up half a percent Tessy up 2.5% Costco up half a percent Netflix up half % joby's up 1.3s is up 0.2 Uber is up3 you got Berkshire hathway that is hidden alltime highs shout out to buff it alltime highs on Burkshire freaking haway Verizon's down Intel's down 3% it was up 3% yesterday rock labs up 2% Google's up about 1% Celsius down as growth gets uh some momentum today looks like Celsius goes red when a lot of these growth stocks go green Amazon's slightly down TSM slightly down S&P 500 up about a third of a percent we lost 1.5% yesterday or 1.4% so a little bit of a recovery uh today as we get into it Baba was down 5% that's up 1.4 Robin Hood up 1.5 Robin Hood officially unveiled uh betting contracts as well not only for basketball but for the FED funds rate decision so they officially unveiled this yesterday um and yeah anyone who thought they were slowing down on prediction markets they are ready to expand at every level of prediction markets I love it if you hate it just scroll past it in the app it's really simple you just don't look at it if you want to bet on the stuff you're allowed to bet on it and I think that's going to create some juicy Revenue opportunities for for Robin so Robin right here up 1.76% jet Blues up 18% Lazer that company with the mark Rober video is up.
3% they're up about 30% for the week HS is up 1% micro straty is up 2% almost back at 300 grab at 460 that's up 0.11% affirms up 2% you got ints up 1% paler 8471 all my paler or not all of them but um I think three out of the seven paler interviews will be out today um probably in like probably after the market close around six 7 PM uh the Archer one will be out the Wendy's one will be out and I believe the data bricks one will be out so those three are going to be the ones or or the twg one because the twg one was really good it it was with a guy who's known pter for for 20 years um in the Marines and then he brought them into his his his his current company right now so those will be out a little bit later today I know the Archer one that's the one people care about the most that one's up about 1% in the in the in the opening markets um Adam Goldstein you guys will hear from him CEO of Archer Apple 214 that's up 1% Microsoft's up half a% Royal Caribbean's up norwegian's up United Airlines is up Delta's Up carnival Cruz is up Sofi is up Reddit is up Walmart's up rivian's up the q's 477 that's green PayPal slightly green but it is green Google is Green Block is green iwm small caps are green Silver's down which makes sense because silver tends to go down when growth goes up yesterday it was up because growth was down silver right here down on the day broadcom's up Bitcoins Up rubrics Up Sound hounds up ibits up nvidia's up 2% Tesla's up almost 4% everything's green everything's green first three minutes of the market open today we got some green um now I will ask the question like I ask in the chat every day but uh it's do you trust this green the the one thing I'm a bit skeptical about is that we're going not super green but relatively green before before jpow um and if you guys remember we've done this we've done this rodo at least like 10 times but the past three times jpow speaks at 2:30 Market pumps until 3:30 by 3:30 I remember this because it happens every single time we dump 3:30 to 4 last 30 minutes of the trading day we dump after the market gets excited about Jal so let's see if that Trend continues last time we had this happen really bad was December 18th that was the Christmas jpow presser where he wasn't really that hawkish or doish he was kind of just neutral and the market just like tanked on that uh so today we're GNA see kind of how this plays out but uh so far not doing a horrible job holding this green S&P 500 up about 36% Robin up 1.27 Nvidia 1.7 and then Tesla right here 3.7 on the day Shopify big green up 5% is there any news on Shopify that is a nice D Shopify was at 120 at one point this year so again like do I think Shopify is cheap at 98 no do I think it was like egregiously expensive at 120 no but was it like overvalued yeah and so like again that coming back down to 98 and maybe this comes back down to 85 or 90 and then it kind of normalizes in this range I think that's a reasonable start to 2025 what's unreasonable of Shopify being at 150 and that's another thing Julian Emanuel talked about in that clip we were looking at um the guy asked hey like like what about the the Euphoria and fomo and like meme stock frenzy that we were having a couple weeks ago mid-February doesn't that scare you about this market and Julian's argument which was I think a very reasonable argument was that in 2021 we had that for an entire year where like things would just go up to go up and there was like no checks and balances everything was just crazy in in this market we had it for a couple weeks we had paler at 125 probably shouldn't have been there we had Robin at 65 which you could justify could get there on their earnings growth but probably was too quick um you had Reddit at 250 like yeah we had that for a couple weeks we had fcoin at a billion dollar market cap but we put the breaks on that that's not happening anymore and I think that's relatively good for going up later in the year versus getting into an egregious euphoric Market that we were in uh in mid-February obviously hindsight is 2020 but yeah I mean like things were getting aggressive at that time and honestly I as as I'm saying this I should have sold some Hood I had to pay some taxes I should have sold ,000 shares of hood when it was at 65 knowing that I have taxes coming up but even I was blinded by the fact that like no we're going to 100 baby like this is like and then I you know I had to sell taxes I had to sell Hood at 40 instead missed out on $20 a share uh to cover some of the taxes and like the smart thing would have been hey it's at 65 it's up like 50% in less than a month I should like sell I should take some off the table to pay this tax bill I have coming up and I didn't do that right and so you live and you learn and and you kind of deal with it but like even the fact that I didn't realize like hey I should probably takes them off the table I was so enamored by like no the momentum is so strong that just goes to show how aggressive and exciting the market was but also how expensive it was getting as well same thing with pter at 125 right I know a lot of people probably wish they trim took some off the table pter it's a you know I wouldn't sell pter for taxes I would sell hood for taxes to to show everyone where my loyalty lies it's still palent here but um even then I know a lot of people thought it was aggressive and we ended up getting that correction which was I think so it is what it is but I don't think that was the worst thing in the world to get a little bit more of a of a reset um okay what else are we seeing right here so we have Nvidia kind of holding on a little bit to this red green candle 11678 we do have some red right here from 118 down to 116 let me know if anyone bought Nvidia yesterday I did buy a little bit more at 11645 uh I think it dropped to 114 so it didn't exactly get the bottom uh but we'll see if it can stay at these levels um 11 16.6 right now on Nvidia I do think the market is going to be a little on their edge around what JP's going to do now for those wondering what jpow is going to do well he's not going to cut rates there is a 99% chance that he doesn't cut rates uh today there's a 1% chance that he does and if we see stocks go red in the next like couple minutes it's probably because people are still afraid of what he's going to say now what do I think is going to say nothing that different from what he said A week ago however if he can make some argument for shelter inflation being elevated and that being an indicator to the FED that inflation's coming down or make an argument around weakness in the labor market which I think he's gonna say the labor market is not that weak because he probably doesn't want to admit the labor market is weak but if he does admit that we are seeing more signs of weakening in different parts of the economy that is bad news but it's technically good news because it's what the the market wants to see in order to get inevitable rate cut um but the question is going to be if that happens when that happens and how he sort of says it and uh I think that's what everyone's gonna be listening to every syllable about what he says at at 2:30 because he's not going to say anything that we don't know it's going to be the re between the line answers to questions around tariffs and trade policy and uh the way the FED is looking at inflation over the next five months to see if we're going to get that may cut right now the probabilities for a may cut by the way are only 18% and Bank of America came out today they said they don't expect the first cut until uh September so a lot of people are expecting it in May some people are thinking it's a given in June Bank of America is like yeah it's probably not coming until September which would be a repeat of 2024 and I think that is not what the fed or the or that is not what the stock market wants to see they want to see hints that it's coming closer than sooner than later you know we have a trillion dollars in interest just on our debt we have to pay so the FED would or the the White House would love if interest rates can start to meaningfully make their way down and so I think that's going to be the big story of today does it feel more likely than not that jal's getting closer to giving us that rake out J JP Morgan right here up about half a per Robinhood getting a little bit of momentum getting hit from 41 to 4058 that's up 1.5 S&P 500 currently up.
3% here right now uh the website I was looking at was the CME probabilities tool I'll put that in the chat for anyone that wants to look at it where's meta where is Meta Meta went below 580 yesterday meta right now basically at 581 uh we talked about this with Jason yesterday I think meta on its fundamentals yes is is obviously cheap and much cheaper than it was at 740 which the fact that it got there is kind of crazy I mean that's another example of just like hey like even though even so so like Hood at 65 didn't have to be egregiously overvalued meta at 740 also did not have to be egregiously overvalued was it expensive yeah but was it like oh my God this makes no sense no like you could make an argument for meta 740 or Hood 65 and like not sound like an idiot but the problem was it happened the velocity by which it happened I think was too quick and that's where my mistake came as well it's like okay this happen so quick there's probably going to be some give me backs especially if we're not in a raging bull market and then you know the Tariff thing really became intense and then all these stocks are reset uh so look it's not at 740 it's at 580 but if things get ugly with tariffs that's why April 2N is so important that's why kind of buying anything until April 2nd is a little scary because you just don't know what the teror polic is going to look like but but if there are no tariffs then maybe it's by the dip if there are tariffs then I think every stock including met is going to get a little bit more pain and uh we're going to find that out over the over the coming weeks uh aren't they gonna allow the banks to hold more treasuries yes which is going to be good to get bond guilts to come down the question is when that's going to happen I think Trump would want it to happen immediately VG is up 99.27% this one is down 50% from its IPO so that one's starting to get a lot more momentum coming back as insiders are buying um but yeah the banks holding more treasuries that regulation or that deregulation hopefully is passed like in the next month next two months and then we should have a little bit more pressure on bond yields which would be a good thing as well what do you think about the timeline for the grab deal to take place so remember grab is not confirmed to be buying go-to this is my speculation based on the reports that I read grab slightly down today um I think the timeline would be six months if they get a deal done I think it would be in the next six months I don't think they would take them a year like if they can't get it done in six months I don't think they're going to be doing it but if this entire year is dedicating to get that deal done then I would be happy by the end of 2025 because that deal just fundamentally changes their Market position inside of Southeast Asia Nvidia losing a lot of steam right here 30 cents away from going red let's see if this selloff ends up taking place across the rest of these growth stocks um but yeah for grab I think it would take another six months for them to officially make this happen um IIT sorry if you spoke on this already but was there some news on Tesla that pumped the stock overnight yes so Tesla has gotten the first set of permits they need to uh unveil a robo taxi in California that was the news yesterday originally I thought they were immediately like they just were granted full access to unveil robot taxi a lot of people thought that but then when you look into the details they got one permit out of like probably a hundred different permits they need but it was a big permit and so they're getting very close uh I would close would mean hopefully you know by the end of the year after the Texas launch to launch a full-on robot taxi in in California uh which is probably why the stock is pumping they also got upgraded by caner fitzgeral and to 425 and basically the firm was like Hey all this brand stuff is stupid like folks on FSD and Robotics that's what matters and that's why it's up 2.8% but you know two three% for Tesla really doesn't mean much at this point it's like it's like can it sustain itself in this crappy macro that we have right now and again a lot of these gains that we're seeing Shopify up 6% I you can't trust that before J P speaks he says anything that's pseudo hawkish a lot of these stocks are just going to going to take a hit Celsius right here Cel when Celsius goes green that's how we know the S&P is getting ready to go red that's hilarious the S&P 17% away from going red Celsius was red now it's up 1% it's like Celsius is inverse the S&P 500 it's actually hilarious but that's what's happening yeah so I'll be in SF uh pretty soon with with Tanner I I will try to take a weo with him and Roy and we'll we'll try to do our first uh weo ride because I've never done it yet so um yeah when I'm there next week I will try to take a wayo and see what the experience is like um but hopefully we get to see what it feels like to be a a a wh robot taxi why can't Banks buy Treasures right now they can but they can't buy as much so if we can let go of some regulations that allows them to have more on the balance sheet which would be good for Bond deal because Banks Banks want treasuries and you need people to buy them for those yields to come down then that would be a win-win for everybody it would definitely be a win for Trump so I think that's a no-brainer I think they're going to get that done question is going to be when and if it does happen soon that would be great for for Bond yelds right now uh Nike is also having earnings tomorrow Nike and FedEx has earnings tomorrow Nike right here 7307 again that's red because everything else is green FedEx as well is a a bit down for the day Tesla right here 231 that's up 2.7 % still holding on it's 2% but it is down from being up 4% um okay we had bent on the ol in podcast yesterday clarify some arguments around tariffs as well so let's listen to a little bit about what he's saying and try to get an understanding of how these guys want to manage fiscal policy we we're we're trying to do three things and I I think you may have talked about it last week week before the three legs on the stool three legs on the stool and and from the outside that you inted that very well I I I would do just a little refinement on that that's what I was going to ask you yeah just tell me where I was right and wrong but you were adjacent to everything okay so uh on on one uh we are trying to bring down this massive federal debt cut the spending and but in a Jensen will be on CNBC in 15 minutes at 10: a.m.
so we'll have Jensen on CNBC in about 15 controlled way because you can't do it all at once I I don't like to repeat private conversations with the president but I'll repeat this one because I think it's very the it really illustrates where his head was at first time I went to se into seam saw him at Mar Argo and walk in the door he said Scott how are we going to get these debt and deficits down with without causing a recession fantastic and question that's exactly where we are now how are we going to get the debt and deficits down not cause a recession and I said sir um when you win you didn't get us here we're going to set a goal by 2028 we want to get back to the long-term average we're going to deflate it slowly and longterm average being about 3% deficit to GDP three three and a half percent deficit to GDP and you know I keep saying the us we don't have a revenue problem we have a spending problem because we are averaging right about 18% revenue and I'm talking about Federal Government Federal Government only we're at about 18% and Biden Administration blew it out blew the spending out to 25 normally it's about 21 21 and a half we have the 2% inflation nominal GDP it take real GDP is 18 so we get nominal GDP 3.8 and it all works out yeah and it was very I had uh one of the heads of one of the Singapore Sovereign wealth funds here last week guess what Singapore spends in terms of U spending the GDP deficit 3% they they have no deficit but they they spend 18% 18% 18% and he said you know he said we have a lot in in common with the Trump Administration we like small government we don't like immigration illegal immigration and we like personal safety which I thought was very interesting sorry okay so we'll finish more of that in a bit but essentially his argument is hey we got to cut spending and if we can meaningfully cut spending in a way that can help reduce the deficit while keeping our growth stable now obviously I agree with a lot of people in the chat saying well they're doing a ton of tax cuts that's not going to help with uh collecting tax revenue I agree like if you have all those tax cuts you have more of a deficit the Trump administration's argument bent's argument is that if we have all these tax cuts it'll create more growth we're going to find out we're going to find out right if you cut taxes and you have another 500 billion that we have to make up from somewhere if you don't have tax on tips and you want to get people that make under 150,000 not paying taxes like yeah you're gonna have more of a deficit who's going to pay that how are we gonna get that money their view is that the tariffs or that the increased manufacturing growth in United States that is going to create the revenues to be able to allow us to make up for that deficit we don't know I mean we will find out over the coming months and years if that actually ends up playing out but that is going to be the debate and that's what the market is going to have to see validated in one way or the other and that I think is ultimately going to drive how Equity prices are reflected as well uh but that is this administration's plan and the question is going to be if it actually ends up working Amazon goes green Google goes green Robin Hood's getting a a boost right now Robin Hood just blasted through 41 wow 4138 that's up 3.14% again Robin's very high beta to the market Market's going green right now if Jal say anything to tank it we could see a reversal on Hood pretty easily so that's one thing to keep into account but we are seeing some Deep Pockets of green Nvidia recovering a little bit from that 115 low and then Tesla back up to 3% at 232 currently currently right now um someone says it took Singapore many years to get there a stable and same government since they got their independence yeah for Singapore I mean their Journey has been one bad it took a while for them to ultimately get to where they are right now and a lot of it was just being really discip disciplined on how much they were going to spend and I think Republican or Democrat the past 20 years no one has been disciplined on spending in the United States in particular and you know I don't know if you want to blame uh Biden on this or if you want to blame Trump on this or blame both but after covid both of them passed massive stimulus packages that printed trillions and trillions of dollars which is why the one person I don't blame for any of the the the issues we have going on in the economy even though everyone loves to blame him because he's easy to blame is JP JP had to deal with the the Federal Reserve printing or the the the the treasury printing s trillion dollars in like two seconds and had to figure out how to navigate inflation now was he late on the whole inflation transitory thing yes but also I mean I don't think any chairman of the FED can easily recognize how how bad it's getting before it happens when you're in that type of a scenario and you had a lot of people losing their jobs so you probably had Jal not wanting to hike rates in 2021 when a lot of people were still unemployed so Trump and Biden printed tons of money and now in this Administration they have to be able to deal with the effects of that and that's what we're seeing right now you know what's really interesting as well we we printed a ton of money in 2020 and we never really felt the pain of that until 2022 at least in the stock market but like 2020 the markets went straight to the Moon 2021 it was pretty much the same until we topped out in November and then 2022 we finally felt the pain of all of that money printing but it was only 12 months of pain 2023 2024 we were back up to the moon and so maybe one could make the argument that 2025 it's time to actually feel that pain because feeling the pain was not just raising interest rates like that sucked for investors because like high rates is bad for Equity prices um but feeling the pain is like cutting the spend that the the trillions of dollars we printed basically ushered us into in terms of navigating how to deal with all that spend and then obviously the interest payments on the debt that we we Acquired and maybe 2025 is year where we just have to deal with with uh with more of that pain hopefully that pain is just not a 2022 type of uh year in terms of the stock market um but it was a lot of money it was a lot a lot of money that we ended a printing I blame Nancy yes let's blame Nancy that's a good scapegoat for a lot of this stuff to blame aren't we already suffering enough look I I look we we've gone through pain over the past couple of weeks but that pain again comes from pounds you're going from 125 to 80 that's not real pain in my opinion like that sucks I get it it sucks for me too I got a big pound position I don't like seeing it get cut off by 30% in what basically seems like two days however I also I'm rational enough to know that a 125 probably didn't deserve to be there that quick same thing with Tesla I mean if you had a heavy Tesla position at 480 you didn't trim you didn't take any profits you thought it was going to 600 I feel you felt the same with Robin it at 65 I thought we were going to 70 80 but it probably didn't deserve to be at 65 just like Tesla probably didn't deserve to be five bucks away from going to 500 at that time uh I don't think that's real pain I think that's just a resetting now a real pain would be Robin Hood goes to 20 paler goes to 30 Tesla goes to 100 which is basically what we felt in 2022 a fullon 37% drop in the NASDAQ I don't think we get that this year I think earnings are too good I really do and so hopefully it's not going to be as bad as we as we see yeah also 2022 that's correct we did have uh the Russian invasion of Ukraine that is correct and that raised gas prices that made inflation go nuts so that is another geopolitical event outside of just money printing that created a lot more pain again I I I go back to what evercore is saying when it comes to the nature of this bull market what ends a bull market you need certain characteristics that put a definitive end to the bull market one of the things you need which is what we had in 2022 is uh is is an uncooperative fed right a Fed that is working against you that is antagonistic JP in August of 2022 in Jackson Hall said expect pain literally verbatim he said expect pain he was warning us like yeah it's gonna be messy we have a fed that's very Cooperative we have a fed that's gonna cut rates now how quickly no one knows but they're definitely cutting rates this year and so the fact that the FED is gonna be able to cut it's just the question of when they're going to be able to cut uh I think is what really matters versus having a Fed that we're fighting against because you know currently we are not really fighting uh against this fed and hopefully we continue to not have to fight against this fed because if we do things could get a lot more messy but that is not the characteristic that would hurt this bull market I think currently right now let's hear from Mike Wilson Morgan Stanley and this guy uh was pretty bearish 2023 eventually flipped bullish by mid 2024 here's how he's thinking about the current state of the economy we got Jensen on in five minutes I believe on CNBC and then we'll switch over to him said as much the question is you know what is that how do you measure that I think clearly the labor market is the thing they're watching the most right now you know most of the weakness of the labor market is in the government sector because they're trying to you know shrink the government and maybe even cause a a soft recession in government to some degree so does that spill over into the private labor market if it does I have no doubt the FED will respond to that but that we're not there yet the other thing that could happen though Joe is you get more turmoil in the markets and the FED has always been much more focused on credit markets and funding markets we haven't seen that stress yet in a way that the FED would worry about but remember in 2018 they responded to that too you think recent Market action has been somewhat constructive in that 5500 on the S&P held yeah and that sets up what what you're calling a tradable range which means we could go up enough to make it worth your while to get long yeah I mean that's so you know we talk to clients about this every day that's what they want to know not you know what's happening over the next 12 months but like how do I make money today so like our view coming into the year was probably a little out of consensus we thought the first half would be tougher because expectations were pretty high on the first half the new Administration was very clear that they were going to be you know sequencing their policy to be somewhat more growth negative the tough stuff comes up front and then the back half is when the better policy starts to flow through so a tougher first half I just think people came into the year a little bit complacent that the president was going to do the things he say says he's doing right you know I I we've been talking about this not just this morning but for a couple of weeks at this point do you think what's happening with the market is nervousness about what's emanating from the White House and the policy and the tough things they're trying to push through and you know concern about whether tariffs are on or off or do you think there's something that's really happening with the consumer we've heard from some retailers uh we know consumer confidence number numbers have taken a hit what what do you think of those underlying issues yeah I think those are good questions I would say another variable I'll bring in in a minute so I think it was expectations versus reality so as we all know the market from a stock valuation corre well not just valuation but just Euphoria around the second half of the Year let's not forget it wasn't just the election outcome but it was also the Fed was cutting interest rates yeah the FED stopped cutting interest rates in December and you know valuations were high so we had to reset sort of this continuation of what had happened over the last six months so that was part of it the other thing that happened was yes the expectations on the growth in the first half were probably too high the policy is One impact the other thing that hasn't really been discussed a lot is also this Cloud around AI capex yeah you know like that that kind of got into the markets at the beginning of we heard the earnings that came out from all of The Big Spenders they kind of verified that yeah we're still planning on spending these tens of billions of dollars that's right but there's a deceleration going on so we had to kind of work off the deceleration that's why we think 5500 is a good level because assuming it doesn't roll over into something much worse that should hold so I feel good that there's a tradeable rally at 5500 we got wildly oversold people's expectations now are kind of in line with reality and now we have to kind of wait to see how all this stuff kind of plays plays through into the summer you know if growth gets worse then we could have lower levels um but we've we've had a lot of price damage over the last you know three months not just in the S&P I mean the S&P is down 10% you know the broad like many stocks are down 20 30 40% so the markets as usual got ahead of it for the year growth concern and volatility both likely to persist what about it so your worry is growth you don't think inflation is a even with tariffs that's not the main uh main thing to worry about no then that's probably where you know we were out of consensus with most most people thought growth would be too hot and inflation would come back we're in the other Camp uh or I'm in the other Camp which is that growth is probably going to be the is going to be the concern and we see that in the marketplace right uh Bond and stock correlation again is positive meaning higher rates are good for stocks lower rates are bad for stocks and that that was a real change about a month month and a half ago so until that flips again to negative correlation we think the market Equity markets focus is on growth growth growth growth so so essentially Wilson's like hey there is going to be a tradeable rally that we're seeing right now he's not full-on bullish of 2025 The Q's right here gaining about half a percent Robin it up 3.6% but he's rather saying there is momentum in the short term for how these equities will trade given there is Confluence with how uh bond yields are being positioned and that's primarily because of this idea that there's a growth scare that's not really uh a scare that should be taken at face value this is very similar to what Tom Lee said uh on Sunday as well uh I would agree with that the the the the real thing that's hovering over everyone's head is April 2nd and tariffs and if we get a further delaying or a negotiation on tariffs which again my gut feeling is we're gonna get some deal that's passed and there's not going to really be 25% tariffs then I think the market rallies because I think the Market's like all right we don't have to worry about this anymore there's an official deal Trump's not going to be tweeting every day about tariffs he hasn't tweeted about tariffs in the past four days so maybe they're getting closer to a deal maybe he's not tweeting anything because he doesn't want to publicly say anything because his negotiations are actually uh becoming effective and they're getting things done but we'll find out in in a couple weeks uh but yeah it'll be choppy until April 2nd and maybe April 2nd is the day that determines that markets can go further uh to to to get like momentum that is more stable and they're not constantly going back and forth and maybe maybe it's maybe the momentum the downside if the tariffs end up passing but I really think widescale tariffs on automotives pharmaceutical semiconductor stocks of 25% and more on our two biggest Partners two biggest allies I just don't think that's gonna happen I really don't and if it doesn't then hopefully this creates a good buying opportunity right now but if it does uh I think we're gonna have a little bit more pain meta right here at 585 Shopify still up 6% smci is up four Nvidia back to 117 from 115 so that one's still holding on to its green Tesla as well uh above 229 came to 228 at one point right now at 23041 uh down a little bit from 234 but still green AMD is currently red on the day yeah Mike Wilson was bearish in 2023 he got bullish by the end of 2024 and um you know he's been doing this for 20 years that's why people kind of really were were not impressed by 2023 and 2024 he was calling for the S&P to 4200 and a lot of Morgan stainley clients got killed by being in bonds over stocks and just saw the markets rip for two years and so you know now he thinks it's going to be kind of hard to easily get a recession after these two years of momentum and again when if anyone's scared about a recession you just look at the jobs data like a recession happens when people lose their jobs or when or or when the market is close to having mass unemployment across different sectors Industries ET like that is the definition of how we get Negative growth because people don't want to spend money because they're afraid Now consumer confidence I agree is not the best consumer confidence came in the lowest since 2022 uh last Friday like yeah that's not good but does that equal like massive job losses I don't know because if consumers are not being as confident but they're keeping their jobs that means their savings are just going up which isn't bearish it just means that they're not spending as much which is okay but if they legitimately don't have the money to spend because don't have a job anymore I mean that's when things can get bad Robin Hood right here 10 cents away from 42 I don't know what's causing the Robin Hood pump today to be honest don't know what's allowing Robin it to go is Sofi also up today Sofi yeah sofi's up 3% is Paypal up PayPal's up 1% affirms up 3% AFF firm's up 7even per.
yeah we're getting a lot of fintech getting some uh some potential rotation today along with the max seven um jobs is a lagging indicator yeah that's true but again when you look at the jolts report that we got last week 7.5 million jobs open and like at some point we have to believe that number or we don't right because if it's a fake number then it's like all right so it was fake with trump it was fake with Biden it's like either these jobs are real or these jobs aren't real and yeah maybe we need a few more months of data but non-farm payrolls was also pretty good at 150 we need to really see bad jobs data for it to be obvious and maybe it's not obvious right now and that's why the people that are betting on a recession are going to make a lot of money because they're betting when it's not as obvious right but I think for the far majority of people to really say all right it's a recession the data needs to be there Robin Hood at 42 I don't know why fintech's going up today Sofi as well getting a bid uh all of them getting some love right here kind of weird maybe the algorithms are just picking fintech today but robed up about 5% currently currently right now where is HS HS is up 1% as well hims is a buck away from going below 30 hasn't been below 30 for a while it's the basketball contracts for Hood well Morgan Stanley came out and they have their they reiterated their $90 price Target uh on Hood based on these prediction markets so they are Z gave them gave them 80 bucks let's get a little bit more coverage on Nvidia we got Jensen coming up pretty soon and let's get some coverage on that GTC event that happened yesterday bumpy road lately financials are doing well today industrial being the and followed by reiterating their buy ratings on the stock this morning after a headline filled keynote from the CEO Jensen twang at the company's GTC conference our next guest joins us live from the event ahead of our big interview harsh Kumar from Piper Sandler has a $175 price Target by rating on the stock harsh the the big headline seems to be the capex right the trillion dollars of capex spending on data centered by 2028 was that your takeaway yes so the the the company is incredibly well positioned if you look at the history of uh companies there have been extremely few companies that are as well positioned as Nvidia they're they're addressing some of the most tremendous high growth end markets uh such as data centers such as robotics such as aut driving and each of these can be a multi hundred billion dollar opportunity but yes specifically within data center it's entirely possible that you can get up to $1 trillion each year of annual capex spend we're already several hundred billion dollars and you know famously Microsoft is 80 something billion dollars and others are following and these guys are not slowing down um and so we we can certainly see that Cadence continuing um to several hundred billion dollars going up to a trillion dollars somewhere around that time frame of 2028 so what happens to your estimates at this point and and why do you think the stock didn't react more is it just not trading on company fundamentals right now so we're we're at a point in time where we're caught between the macro and potential cause of slowdown and and all the the stuff associated with tariffs it's causing a little bit of uncertainty um there is an argument that is being made that the the the capex growth has stalled just because the capex numbers have gotten so big but I think it's a little bit misplaced I think we are only looking at the data center Market at this point in time when I was talking to uh Jensen for example and other folks at Nvidia it was very evident to me that the next step on the horizon is possibly software and software could be a trillion dollar market for all right we have Jensen here we go of artificial intelligence you sure are yes and you are the leader and you put out a number yesterday I've never heard a CEO ever say listen we got a billion dollar road map and it's going to happen sooner how is this possible well you know we're building AI infrastructure for the world and it is very clear now that we are about $150 billion dollars of AI infrastructure into a journey of trillions of dollars of infrastructure and so uh we've got we've got a lot of AI to build I was here last year totally different feel different VOD felt there was a limitation to it what happened in one year Well in one year we made AI better uh it's smarter now it can reason uh we made AI more useful just about every industry and every company all these companies are all building AI into their systems and into their products and uh we've got a lot more energy and a lot more land and just so much more desire to uh build out these AI infrastructures there were people who just even a month ago were saying there's an outfit in China that is going to eliminate a lot of what Nvidia provides and therefore nvidia's uh these ships are way too expensive I I what I saw yesterday was that not even a factor in your thinking or anyone else's thinking it was an abstraction it was a distraction well it is true that these processors and these computers are quite expensive they're quite expensive to make and this is the largest chip in the world it is the most complic computer the world's ever made and so it's it's expensive to make however it saves you a mountain of money because it does work saves you amountain of money because the amount of it takes the amount of time it saves you the amount of times the the processing time it reduces is incredible and number two now because it generates tokens that you can monetize the amount of money it helps you make is incredible well why just in the last 24 hours do I hear from GM do I hear from Disney do I hear from Isco do I hear from Black Rock do I hear from crowding who all of them say look our partnership with Jensen is key to our future well AI is the foundation the operating system of every single industry going forward and the reason for that is of course everything that we do in life is underpinned by intelligence and we create what Nvidia builds is the infrastructure for manufacturing digital intelligence now we're looking at this as One processor right but in our data centers we announced a way yesterday to connect millions of these together using silicon photonics and so we now have the ability to go from a 100,000 of these things to millions of these things running in the data center at the same time and that that infrastructure that factory if you will is the factory of the future now I I do want to go for a moment before I go to Robotics and autonomous vehicles I want to put on my journalist's grow soup sardonic hat and say well wait a second what if the president puts 25% tariffs on and Michael Dell is slowed down HP we talked about yesterday they're slowed down and it could put a limit if not a cap on your growth well we we want to build we're enthusiastic about building uh in America as anybody and so we've been working with tsmc to get them ready for manufacturing chips here in United States uh we also have great Partners like foxcon and wish Tron who are working with us to bring manufacturing uh on Shore so long-term uh manufacturing on Shore is going to be something very very possible to do and we'll we'll do it incred chines are still a a key partner right now you have a lot of businesses I would say 17% of your business yeah in the in the near term I would say I would say in the near term tariffs will will not the impact will not be meaningful and uh but AI diffusion but that last initiative by Biden which said really there are only 18 friendly countries that we want you to do massive business with that seemed arbitrary I if not judgmental in a way that I think you and I would say it makes no sense as you know as you just look around here there are companies from all over the world ai's gone mainstream okay AI isn't isn't uh some magical technology it's incredible technology well but it's used for everything it's used for health care and education and agriculture yesterday I thought you downplayed group when we think of icons we think of Groot and in many ways you gave that two and a qu minutes but isn't Groot robot going to save most of the marriages in this country by doing the dishes yeah you're right doing the dishes and taking a trash out walking the dogs you know and so so uh Groot stands for General robotics technology GRT group and it uh stands for General robotics technology because the technology finally arrived where we could create the AIS we build them in the data centers requires large AI infrastructure to to train these robots simulate these robots in Virtual Worlds that obeys the laws of physics and we partnered with Disney and deep mind and and we created this thing called Newton which simulates physics incredibly accurately and then you create this AI in the cloud in the data center and then you move the AI brain if you will downloaded digitally into a physical robot and so the technology that we've been working on for some time is really making enormous progress Robotics and Robotics Industries General Robotics and other forms of robots is going to be one of the largest AI fact AI infrastructure opportunities for us if you can simulate uh train simulate and run you're expedite it's going to happen much faster than people realize I I when I hear that that actually Arc of how you can do it I'm going to buy a robot within the next few years yeah but you'll rent it you know okay I'll rent it I can't afford to buy rentar hire hire hire a robot no but you're saying this is going and the robot is my size it can do things that we only dreamed of doing it's not artific it's reality and it doesn't get bored doesn't get tired you know you sure oh yeah because I I when I think that they can reason they wanton help no they they'll want entertainment and yeah sure yeah we we'll keep them company and they'll they'll keep us company robot jell cubes cute yeah they're incredibly cute as you know I know and we can make them do all kinds of repetitive work and and seriously the world is short of tens of millions of workers and factories and and factories would be more than delighted to pay 50 70,000 a year to have some of these robots come in and do the repetitive tasks and and all the dangerous work that we'd like not to do this is exigency I think too many people feel that they're going to replace us they don't realize there's not enough of us there's not enough of us yeah well okay so but you were talking about we need an amount of computation there easily a hundred times more than we thought so far so good last year were we that off last year yeah we're way off yeah we were we didn't see it we just didn't know how important it is well we realized that reasoning is very important to intelligence and we realized that one shot AI that we were using wasn't represented of intelligence and that we were make making incredible progress and last year with reasoning models coming out uh Chad PT's reasoning model and others and uh it just took off people love these reasoning models that we love that it's giving us multiple answers that we can choose from we love the fact that the AI is reflective of its own answer and you know did I answer that qu that question uh right and could I have better uh options that I can present you and uh and so there's a lot of different ways that the AI has now become uh much more reasonable okay and reasoning and so that requires a lot more computation hund hundreds hundreds more time computation and so we this new new level of AI is going to demand a lot of lot of chips which is the reason why you're talk chips you're talking about data centers how huge Data Center OH Larry Ellison data center how many chips does that need hundreds of thousands hundreds of thousands yeah well that's millions of dollars for NVIDIA every gigawatt of data center is somewhere around 40 to 50 billion dollar about and how what percentage does Nvidia get there out of that every gigawatt that's your is is about 40 or 50 billion 45 I thought that you were in trouble and things were slowing down and the Chinese are taking over and we should be looking at you and thinking this is a meme stock that's going to 90 we have a very large opportunity ahead of us okay so I I worry about this you give a road map road map I was laughing on me inside sorry you give a road map and I can I know about the ver Ruben and I'm saying why don't I just wait for ver Ruben why can't I skip this what Blackwell plus no well forget that I'm jumping over and therefore I'm gonna wait till 2027 what do you say to those customers well this is building an industry and building business and we're trying to build business every year as you know and it's not it's not like buying a TV or you know buying a bicycle this is something that you're building these AI factories to run your company You're Building these AI factories to run other companies companies and so they're going to want your AI factories right now the reason why I lay out our our road map um for several years is because the world is building a infrastructure trillions of dollars of it over the next several years we can't comprehend trillions well you know we're this is the the new new uh Industrial Revolution and inside underpinning an industrial revolution are new factories and we are the factories of the future what we talking about we think about Fulton and steam engine we think about railroads these are yours is so much bigger than all of those well the world is bigger now than it was back then right there $120 trillion in industry GDP around the world and now this new Factory called AI factories is the underpinning for all of it and so the idea that that a hundred trillion dollars of the world's GDP will be underpinned by trillions of dollars of AI factories it's very sensible with Nvidia in it and that's why we're going to wait and talk more later in mad money and I want to thank the Squawk on the street 10 o'clock gang for let me coming in here uh with an eye openening discussion thank you David thank you Sarah thank you of course look forward to catching a lot more you guys just started there so did you guys did you guys like that interview that that interview was was H it's a little weird with some of these questions um I think the main question that I wanted like I don't think he asks like the real questions that people care about the real questions people care about are hey like the street doesn't believe in you guys for some reason can you clearly say why the street is wrong about your growth expectations your future yada yada and then I think he just needed to give Jensen the next 10 minutes to talk it was a little bit too much cutting off um randomly to interject with stuff that didn't matter also it was quick I thought it was going to be a long interview that was relatively quick that wasn't as long as I thought it would be um um but okay that's what we got so kind of a nothing burger from that interview I mean we heard Jensen speak for like three hours yesterday so everything we needed to really hear we got from yesterday Nvidia stock after that interview 1.5 2017.3 um yeah it's at least it's holding above 110 but not any meaningful change from yesterday Tesla right here 233 that's up 3.6 Robin hoodie 4243 so fun fact about Robin Hood uh one of you guys mentioned that in the chat uh we talked about xrp already we talked about xrp the court case dismissed happy for the xrp people but yeah outside of that you know nothing else that crazy about xrp xrp right now is up about 11% so looks like that court case getting dismissed is a good thing for xrp uh William Sonoma was uh selected to be included into the S&P 500 uh their market cap right now is 18.5 billion the requirement to get into the S&P 500 is 20.5 billion the rebalance is in two weeks so I am just curious how do they include William Sonoma if they don't get their market cap above 20.5 in two weeks and why did they pick a company that could have one 10% draw down and immediately lose the eligibility requirement over Hood which at these levels could have a 40% draw down which could happen I'm skeptical it would be that intense but because it's already had a 30% draw down but Robin could lose 40% of their value and still be eligible for the s&p500 I mean dude I really feel like William Sona paid somebody like how the hell do they get included over a robinet or coinbase that are just so much more eligible I mean like what happens in two weeks if William Sonoma was below 20.5 like do they do they not include them do they pick someone else and why would you even pick a company that's so close to the to the uh ibility requirement versus have a margin of safety it doesn't make a lot of sense here but hood is up 5% Sofi up 3.5% PayPal up 1% and then a firm right here at 6.5% HS as well up 2.5% currently right now Matias says those aren't requirements they're baselines for consideration by the board the board considers other things like sector diversification interesting so I thought you had to legitimately have that market cap or else you wouldn't even be well even if it's just a board even if it's just something the board considers and that's the cuto off for how they consider it the point is in two weeks that consideration would have been false given William Sonoma doesn't it may not have the market cap so my broader question is why would they pick something so close to the to the deadline right or to the eligibility requirement because you just put yourself in a tough situation if you fall 10% which stocks fall 10% all the time then you're immediately now below what what you were using for requirements um well whatever they're probably going to get included hopefully next time Robin Hood uh will get in the S&P 500 doesn't want gambling stocks look that's fair Hood's a full-on DraftKings baby this is a gambling product now some someone was like oh I'm leaving Hood because they're becoming more of a gambling app I'm like okay I know people that have a hundred million dos on robit it that are bringing over more money like like like you like you know your subjective belief about them getting into gambling and you taking your money off the platform there's a lot of rich people that don't give a and they're coming over to the platform people are really using their perspective on I you know what I found out this week I found out this week how much people are afraid of gambling or like not afraid they have a they have almost like this uh antagonistic perspective against the concept of gambling and I don't know what it is about gambling that triggers people so much because to me it's like if you don't want to gamble don't gamble if you want to gamble then gamble like people are acting like it's like this really hot topic and it's just a horrible thing I'm like if you don't want to go to Vegas don't go to Vegas like if you don't want to gamble don't gamble if you want to scroll past it scroll past it but people are emotional about this and I didn't realize that I didn't realize people are so they care so much about the sanctity of protecting people from the sins of gambling and I'm like but you just I mean if people don't want to do it they just don't have to do it like is really not that serious um amid I love sports gambling I just prefer depositing on a different platform any logic on that one no I think that I think that argument is bad I think that like just scroll past it unless people are so weak that they're gonna see NCA sports betting underneath uh their their Robin It app and they're like oh my God I have to bet on Duke or Kentucky because I'm like addicted to gambling and that's I feel like a deeper problem with the person like you literally just scroll past it it's not maybe I'm oversimplifying it but I don't think it needs to be in a separate app I think that's way too aggressive for no reason uh did you see Jeremy talk about why Elon should leave Tesla I did not see him talk about that I I'm sympathetic to that perspective my dad has the same perspective he's like get this guy out of here he's not gonna show up to work uh I just look at the end of the day I believe that Elon is the best thing for Tesla I think Elon is Tesla Tesla is Elon there's a massive keyman risk there if anything happen to Elon I think it would be very bad for Tesla um and I don't think you can get Optimus and FSD to scale the way Elon thinks it can scale like many many trillions of dollars without Elon like I I don't know what CEO ends up doing this I'm sympathetic to the people that say Hey this guy's not even showing up to the office like he should be out I just personally think the only reason Tesla's worth 750 billion is because of Elon so um same thing with carp and and and pter dude like like I don't really know if there could be another CEO of pter the way pter is the way they're called set up uh obviously like the core business I don't think goes to if you have a new CEO uh because it's B2B SAS recurring revenues all that stuff but I still think there's there's a magic to karp being that CEO and creating that culture and it's hard to replicate that so there there's a keyman risk to pounder like the Isis to Tesla which is that karp and Elon are the guys that I think really make this happen I mean there's something about karp getting on stage and talking that makes you just want to own more of this company right there's something about Elon being an inspiring figure for many even though he's a uh toxic figure for others that gets people to want to buy into Tesla's Vision so pter is down yeah pter is currently right now down about half a percent here right now um what else what else what else what else do we have Adit do you consider this a weakness of a stock relying too much on CEO yeah it's definitely a risk to the stock so if you invest in pter and Tesla I think you are investing in carp and Elon at the end of the day yeah Steve Jobs was definitely a core element of Apple they've been able to navigate successfully from 500 billion to three trillion since he passed away obviously a lot of people don't feel the actual innovation of apple has matched their market cap but the company itself has been able to function for the past 15 years even without Steve Jobs and I'm sure Tesla and pter would be able to like be good companies without carp and Elon I just don't know if they would be phenomenal companies without those two um rocket Labs down okay rock lab was green we aren't giving up all the Green in the market yet Rock lab down half a percent Robin it's still holding on to 5% again that's kind of weird markets aren't ripping for Robin to be ripping like that so I really don't know what to think of that going into the jpow uh presser but we'll find out nvidia's up 1.4 Netflix is up 2.
five Google's up half a percent and then the S&P well the S&P is up almost 1% the S&P is actually doing okay basically recovering what they got from yesterday JP Pal's at 2:30 I'll be live at 220 JP's at 2:30 um so I'll be live 10 minutes before and we'll see what jpow has to say uh okay here's another clip from bent on Doge as well and why he thinks it's something we have to do in order to get these bond yields to come down those that I am completely aligned with what elon's doing and everyone say well do you have to do it so fast do you have to do it I I like I said I've only been in in this business for seven weeks I've only been in DC for eight weeks the thing I can tell you is if you don't move fast the vested interest will weigh you down like the the the quicksand will come up or the claws get the CLA yeah everybody's got lobbyist everybody's got I mean think about it within a 10 10 mile radius of here 25% of the GDP of the us pulsates through here pulsates every day yeah and everybody wants to just skim a little I I said to a Elon we were in a meeting and I said you know people are mad at you because you're moving their cheese and he it's not their cheese it's the American people's cheese 100% every dollar spent goes into someone's pocket and that person's gonna fight tooth and nail to get that dollar to keep flowing into their pocket and it's a it's a it's a very like there's no winning in elon's role there's every single time he takes action there are people that are going to come after him that are going to come after the administration there's no situ and obviously gets recast reclassified in the media as being something different but there's nothing but downside as you make these changes to individual organizations that participate and then it takes a while for the flow of that money to find its way or those individuals to find their way back into the productive private economy that's where I think there's a big gap and a big challenge in the perception of the actions that are going on with the changes right now is everyone sees the cuts but they don't see the benefits and that's 9 months 12 months 15 months down the road and that's a really hard thing to reconcile for most yeah and i' I'd say there a couple of things too is one like everyone's hearing cuts and they think their government services are going to get cut that's right and they're not I I keep saying it's the department of government efficiency not government Extinction not government elimination and can we make it run much better with fewer people with fewer costs and yeah I don't want to demonize any of these federal employees because I tell you in this building I've been so impressed with the quality of the the people I I would have hired them in my private firm they are great public servants I need you to stay for the weekend I need a 25-page memo in 72 hours the super high quality I I actually think what when when when all this is done there there will have been two big savings one will have been on these contract toally we were just talking about this we were with just now incredible stat he said I'm not going to name the firm so that I don't want to but he said this one organization gets 98% of their revenue it was in the newspaper so we can say it it's boo Allen exactly we were talking about this and then but then we going through the numbers on the other firms and it's just the whole thing shocking what kind of risk management is that by the way yeah but but it tells you that like that they didn't manage the risk that's right tells you how entrenched they believe they were and how good it is for them and how good it is you're absolutely and and the way the way the grift works you can only have six Monon contracts but there're people who have had 4 six-month contracts incredible they've been in situ for 20 years incredible and it's this whole I'm so happy there is transparency and visibility into this if for nothing else the administration providing this level of insight and data I think is so important for taxpayers and individuals in this country to see to recognize and importantly to understand just how much of this grift is going on again like does anyone meaningfully disagree with what bassent just said and look there's part of this whole Trump tariff stuff that I think is stupid I think the whole war with Canada calling them her 51st state I think that all that's stupid but the the the one thing I haven't felt that has been bad that the administration is really FOC on that I don't know if the Harris Administration would have focused that much on because a lot of them are entrenched in in the in the in the lobbying efforts of of Booz Allen Hamilton for example is cutting a lot of the bureaucracy and random spend that companies like bozal and Hamilton are able to get which ends up making 90% of the contracts that they get to get rich off of but that the government doesn't really get any value out of and I think that's what doge is uncovering right here and in the short term yeah that is going to create a lot of pain but uh I don't know how any anyone disagrees with the concept of getting rid of of Fraud and Abuse the process by which they're doing it yeah there can be thousands of different ways you disagree with that and I'm sure you know the courts are stopping them from doing a bunch of different things so the courts all sort disagreeing with it but the principle of actually getting rid of waste and fraud I don't know how anyone could say that's like a bad thing because at that point you're just you're just you just think it's good to have bureaucratic uh uh uh organizations that continuously spend taxpayer dollars that aren't really getting an Roi and in the private sector that's not how it works in the private sector if you spend money that doesn't get an Roi your stock collapses because shareholders just won't support it but given its tax revenue and it's kind of like you have to pay your taxes there's no way you don't you're stuck right so I don't know again there's a lot of different ways to disagree with how they're doing it but I think the core principle is something that I think is at least good that they're trying to be able to resolve some of this stuff are we sure it's waste and fraud they fired some nuclear workers too and they often tried to rehire them yeah look I agree again the process is not the best there was many times where in the past month they fired people and they had to rehire them because they weren't the right people to fire so I agree the process has been pretty ugly as it probably will be because whenever you try to do something new there's going to be tons of mistakes and they're making tons of mistakes but what I'm seeing online are people that just disagree with them trying to solve waste and fraud and from a from a from a philosophical principle based perspective I'm like I I I just don't get the argument against it I really don't even though yeah there's there's ways they're doing it that are obviously not the best right now um all right are we getting a 10:30 slam are we getting a 10:30 slam we are kind of seeing a little bit of a 1030 slam where is the S&P uh 68 so that was at 08 that there's a red candle right there I feel like it's either going to be a jow slam or we glide into the press conference with not that much pain but it's not really a 10:30 slam here right now or it doesn't really feel like it yeah kind of a nothing Burger when it comes to 10:30 today the J house slam is going to be the one that matters if we end up getting a nasty house slam um okay let's look at some other headline so we do have this headline right here a black rock Nvidia Microsoft and xai JP's gonna be at 230 Eastern so in a couple hours uh join an AI infrastru infrastructure partnership uh Black Rock Microsoft and Global infrastructure Partners mgx have added Invidia and XI to the AI infrastructure partnership which aims to invest nextg AI data centers the partnership plans to unlock 30 billion of capital with a total investment potentially reaching a 100 billion GE verin NOA and next era energy wow they're also collaborating to expand Energy Solutions is next up on that deal next is up 2.24% uh ge Veron NOA is up a little bit as well VRT and vistra are also up about 3% more data centers so it looks like xai black rock Microsoft and Nvidia uh continue to build more when it comes to the broader data center space and that you know that's another reason to be bullish on Nvidia like we're building out all these data centers for a reason what's going to be in all these data centers a bunch of gpus in video right here just below 117 right now and uh if that's the case it's probably because there's demand for those gpus which the market doesn't want to pay a high multiple for even if they want to pay a higher multiple for Costco but it's not like you can necessarily deny that it looks like there's a lot of demand coming oh yeah you're right it's NE not next sorry NE next is next decade NE is next era they're up about 0.11% today you know uranium stocks nuclear stocks they haven't had the worst year either I know oako pumped to like 60 and now it's back down to 26 but still up from like six bucks where it was at seven months ago uh that's up 2% on the day as well so nuclear is getting a bid next decade though they're not part of the deal but they are still up 2.35% they were up 177% uh I think I was on Tuesday yesterday or Monday from 660 to 874 this is one again I've heard Matt and Chris talk about it this is one if you believe in the liquefied natural gas overall ecosystem growing you kind of just buy and hold this because it could go back down to $6 as quick as it went up um but longterm same thing with VG right this is not a short-term play like if you believe in it long term then or you believe in the sector long term that's why you stay in those in those names um okay what else what else what else do we have J Pal's at 2 2 pm wa do we want to do year to date returns all right let's do year-to date percentages in the chat my year-to date I think it's down like 15 it's down seven okay we're down seven little recovery today it was down 15 yesterday let's put that into the chat what do we have on our year-to-date percentages dude January all of us were up like 20% that should have been the first sign it's like wait a second 20% in a month is a lot it's a lot everyone's still probably negative right now I mean if you're up right now that's not horrible but if you're negative you're most likely with the rest of us um Jasmine's down nine Andy's down 50 50,000 gav is up 58% all right someone had some puts I would imagine Brandon's down 33 pounder is up 7% so that's that's good for all of us as well yeah I see a lot of negatives I see -10 to30 pretty much I mean look that's it's pretty reasonable for that to be the range given the past couple weeks GNA have to navigate you know I had a I don't know if I told you guys this but my uh my my my mom's friends I think I told you guys a story they came over the other day and uh they were asking me about investing and I told them you know just like some basic stuff and and uh I was like do you want to you know get a robin account like like put a little money get into it and they're like oh no I don't want to lose my money just like I was like why did you just ask me about like you know it's like and I was like so you don't want to even try they're like no no it's too scary for me and I was like well this is this is the average uh American right they're like they're afraid and I straight up told them I was like yeah you will probably lose money I mean like you're gonna have to learn some lessons on the market everyone loses money and also you may see the account balance go down but over the long term it'll probably go up but in the short term yeah of course it could go down and they were just like yeah that's not for me and so even look I know being down 10 20% sucks but like even if you're the fact the reason I'm saying this is because if your mentality is in the line of of of Financial Freedom and investing and just like a growth mentality versus the mentality of I'm so scared to even try I think that's a win I know that's like a a cliche way to conceptualize being down year to dat but you do have to remember a lot of people don't even try because they're so afraid of buying Nvidia 123 and then it goes to 117 and I think as an investor you just get so preconditioned for dealing with that that it uh it desensitizes you to all this stuff my mom thinks I lost all my money these last two weeks and had to have the talk with her yeah Jason was talking about the yesterday because Jason manages his mom's money as well and like his mom was like let's go to money market funds and his mom is also a Democrat so she was blaming Trump for everything she like I told you Trump was gonna ruin everything so he had to deal with that but um yeah and look look if you are wealthier and older in life Jason had a good take on this yesterday it's about wealth preservation right not wealth uh creation and so yeah you got to be like money market funds sound pretty damn good when you already have money and you want to hold on to it but for people that are trying to grow that wealth you've got to deal with the volatility and I think that's okay because it's like if you're trying to build anything in life like I was talking to a friend last night and uh you know they're really trying to get into entrepreneurship build their brand get into like content all this stuff and I'm just like you got to go through a lot of pain to get there like a lot of pain it takes years and years and years before you think you even have a chance to to to have anything meaningful start going for you and then once you get any resemblance of like momentum you have to be so grateful for it and hold on to it and work your ass off and like never take a day off unless you're sick like I was last Tuesday and you're coughing every two seconds and you just have to keep going right but uh but but but but but but in in it's similar to investing it's like yeah you want to get rich but like you have to deal with Nvidia following 20 30 perent to get there and for the real ogm video holders in the chat 50 70% you want to build a brand you want to start a YouTube channel you have to deal with all the negative things that are associated with that and still move forward and the beauty of life is that Journey the beauty of life is being humble in that process accepting that it's going to suck you're going to lose plenty of times you're going to be down year to day you probably should have sold Robin at to 65 and you have to end it up you have to end up selling it a 40 to help cover your taxes right like you like those are the mistakes that you live and you learn from but you don't sulk about cry about it think you're a loser about it just move on from it um and and and you keep pushing forward and that's the same thing with investing when you're down you look at those numbers you evaluate if it's a good company you cut your losses if you need to and then you keep moving forward that's it or you day trade and try to get some dude I I always watch these like Tik Tok Day in the Life day Traders and they're like they're like oh I made 5,000 today I worked like 7 minutes and now I'm done for the day and they don't really show you that the next day they lost that 5,000 like the problem with day trading is you'll have a good day everyone has a good day and then the next day you try to go at it and you have a crappy day because most day Traders suck I think there was a study done on this in 1999 I'm gonna see if I can find it but I read this I read this white paper I think it was like in 2022 they compared day Traders they took like a a 100 day Traders and they compared their p&l to working at McDonald's and the minimum wage at McDonald's outperformed the day Traders I'm going to try to find the study and show it to you guys later because I remember reading this and that that's what because I I I had the mentality a couple years ago like oh maybe I should day trade and then I did some research I was like no this is this is kind of dumb this like I'd rather long-term hold I think selling options is a way to generate income if you if you really want to kind of use the markets as a form of income generation but day trading for income it's like dude you gotta be good you gotta really be good and like so Jason for example he day trades but he's been doing this for 30 years and he more so swing trades he does like one to two months trades not really day trades um but he's really good at what he does everyone else that tries to day trade and then build some Discord patreon course on like proving to you that you can pay them a$ thousand dollar a month so that you can teach them how to day trade they're all full of like almost all of them are full of um but the few that can do it they do end up making a lot of money Arie says I would definitely earn more more in McDonald's versus being a Creator today well Arie you went all in on pound here at seven bucks so you are you are doing okay every furu on X yes all these furus on X that don't have a profile picture but try to sell you a thousand course that's exactly what they do like I really think if you want to make money from the markets in terms of like a a sort of like income strategy I think selling options is the best way and there's risks associated with that but at least those risks are predefined and you can navigate those risks whereas day trading like you buy the stock at 10 hoping to sell it at 1040 and it never gets to 1040 during that day I mean like you're just stuck you know it's like and and like you have to be really accurate on the the timing of it going up or down you mean gambling with options yes I mean gambling with options dude look do I think options are gambling yes but I think there sophistication in the gambling with options whether it's selling or buying that one can deploy just like if you're gambling on the Lakers Knicks game you can use sophisticated research on how many points you think XYZ player is GNA have how many rebounds you think based on the historical analysis B on on this player's history Yad y but it's still gambling so this is why I get confused when people are upset that Robin is introducing these betting contracts I'm like all of it is gambling options are also gambling it is a gamble to think that Robin Hood will be $100 by 2027 and buying a call off option like you've got to be you got to be out of your mind to think that's not a gamble now it might be a sophisticated form of research that you're deploying to think about their growth rate earnings what their multiple would be y y but you don't know if we're gonna have another pandemic in another year you don't know if the Trump tariffs last for like two more years and then there's no way Robin can be a proxy to a bull market because we don't have a bull market it is still a gamble same thing if I sell a put on Robin 35 bucks I'm using whatever sophistication I can use to figure out that Robin Hood has a good shot of not hitting 35 so I don't get assigned on the puts robbing it up 4% right now that anything could happen and then it could get to 35 and then you have to hold those shares so with event contracts it's the exact same thing to me it's a gamble like it is absolutely a gamble you can't wheel or roll your Nicks bet yeah that's fair but like to me the fundamental principle inside you can manage the gamble but it is a form of gambling and so you got all these like morality police around Robin ID being like well this is the worst thing in the world they're corrupting the youth and I'm like what are you talking about like I just like I've spent all week trying to understand their argument and I'm like I don't get it I really don't it's like if you don't want to do it you don't do it like I'm not betting on the basketball contracts because I don't know anything about basketball like I don't know anything about duke or Kentucky so I'm just staying away from it but selling puts to me is just as dangerous and it is a form of gambling at the end of the day any love for Big Bear AI at this price where is BBA I we haven't looked at this one in a while it was down 20% last week wow it's below three 299 just at that below $3 level so this thing fell from almost 10 bucks to three um I don't have any love for because I really don't know what their moat is I think people got excited because it was having a short squeeze yeah 10:30 on February 18th down to 298 I think a lot of people got excited for this because it went up and it had AI in its name and they got one government contract that got people excited this is this is a product of of a euphoric Market that we had in February this was it needed to come down and it came down now at $299 at a $850 million market cap is it a bargain I don't know I don't think they're even putting up the revenue earnings to justify close to a billion dollar market cap um but I guess if you're buying Big Bear AI you think there's some potential in the future for their AI Services whenever I think of C3 AI Big Bear AI I just go back to paler and I'm like dude I literally was at AIP con and I saw all of these use cases you guys will see today in the interviews that I post I mean some of these customers just you couldn't pay them to talk better than what they're talking about paler and and the ironic thing is they're paying paler like they're not getting paid to talk good about paler they're the ones paying millions of dollars the paler but they're so excited about their Partnerships um because they genuinely believe that they uh the organizations are transforming I mean the Wendy's guy the Wendy's dude they did a promot with SpongeBob and there was this massive massive surge of demand for Wendy's I think this was back in May of 2024 and and and and the CEO you'll see when he talks in the interview he's describing how pounder software allowed them to manage all of the demand they were getting how it forecasted that that demand was going to come and then how how it allowed them to risk mitigate in regards to their supply chain being ready to deal with this random SpongeBob promotion that Wendy's deployed that ended up going viral and led a lot of people coming into the Wendy stores like these are real examples of of of of AI being operationalized and so when I think of that and then I think of big bear or C3 I'm like I just I just don't see the comparison between those case studies not saying those companies can't be undervalued it's just paler feels more like the more like the real deal people got excited about Big Bear because the new CEO had connections with the last Trump Administration and worked in homeland security yeah so it was more qualitative kind of arguments for why there would be a pump versus versus anything that real um any form of stock market investment with Trump in power at the moment is gambling well look I don't disagree I mean that that's also my point right and the uh the people that I'm debating with on Twitter they hate this argument but um uh the stock market is gambling and people hate when I say that but it is true like now again I think there's a lot of sophistication to investing but you're buying a stock hoping it goes up you are taking a gamble on that stock you can have all the research in the world you want we've seen many times in history that doesn't matter the market be the market like literally the term the market is irrational is based on this idea that it is a gamble in the market and you don't know what's really going to happen you might have an idea of what you think is going to happen which is why we respect birkshire and Dr Miller and all these guys because they've consistently proven they can be ahead of the market but for everyone else it's it's a gamble it's just a gamble that hopefully plays out over time in your favor so the idea that sports betting is so fundamentally different to me I'm just like I don't get it I really don't get it and qu quite frankly I think a lot of these people are just long Sofi I mean from all the the people that have been hating on Roba this week all of them are long Sofi when I look at their profile I'm like oh you guys are just mad that like Sofi is not do anything like because if Sofi was coming out with even one tenth of the Innovation that Robin is coming out with I don't think I would hear a peep from you guys I mean these are the same people that want crypto to come back to Sofi how is crypto not the biggest casino in markets like and you can give me all the fundamental thesises you have about Bitcoin ethereum whatever crypto is a casino way more than the stock there's no cash flows there's no earnings it's literally just hey we think this decentralized blockchain is going to be more valuable in the future because of blah blah blah blah blah like oh but Sofi should definitely bring back crypto which is like super super safe for everybody but betting on if JP's going to cut rates or not in May is like the worst thing in the world I'm like oh so you just hate Robin it at that point like that's just like I don't think these arguments are consistent at all Warren thank you for the Super Chat he says the stock market is a Gamble and I love the thrill I agree I love the thrill as well and I'm not trying to police other people who love the thrill of betting on Duke or Kentucky which is what I think a lot of people are trying to do with this argument it's like all right I love the throw of the markets a lot of my mom's friends probably think I'm gambling in the markets and I can't blame them because that's how they conceptualize it but I I'm not going to think that you know someone gambling on on the Lakers game is like the worst person in the world and Robin needs to stop them from doing it you know everyone kind of is able to do their own things yes jpow I'll be live for it at 2:30 I'll be live at 2 well 2:20 but 2m we will officially get the the answer for JAL David thank you for the super chat yesterday at GTC I've seen data bricks Tech and talked to their Engineers peners way ahead product rise so the the the the interview I have coming out with the data bricks dude I think will be really good for people that are interested in the data bricks pter partnership they are still going to compete like data braks and pter will still compete for different like contracts and stuff but from the interview that I got the competition is turning more into a partnership because many of their clients are saying hey why don't you guys just work together uh the data intelligence product from from from data bricks and the ontology Foundry product from pounder they can work together so I think more so than not people wanted to frame them as competitors when in reality um there's a lot of ways they work together they will still compete it's not like they're not competing but it's also more likely than not they're going to get deals together so I I think it'll be a good interview and yeah I do think there part of the reason data breaks probably had to partner with paler just being logical is like they realized Foundry is something they can't ignore they can't ignore the ontology they can't ignore the analytics that P is offering to clients and they can't ignore the customer demand and so they want to tap into that and in order to do it um they probably need to make a partnership we got a headline on Apple right here Apple told by EU antitrust Regulators to open up its technology mobile operating system to rival makers of smartphones headphones virtual reality headsets okay so the EU continues to be aggressive when it comes to Apple um you know it's interesting we haven't had a ton of EU headlines with Apple for a while and I think it's because the EU has been dealing with tariffs and a lot of other stuff uh but I remember in 2024 there was just like they they sued them for like 2.3 billion right and there was a ton of stuff around uh the lightning Port USB all that stuff App Store so it seems like some of those concerns are coming back another headline we just got Trump and zalinsky are speaking oh they already spoke at 10 amm Trump and so we should be getting an update from Trump and zalinsky soon uh if they spoke at 10: a.m.
remember zalinsky came out yesterday and he was more opposed to the phone call that Trump and Putin had Trump said the phone call went great and things are going to be like resolved soon and then zalinsky made a public statement and said hey I don't think that the conditions are exactly the way that they should be and so um it looks like they just have their phone call a 10 we should probably get an update from one of them soon on how that phone call went let me see if Trump posted on Truth social about it and that'll get us closer to a resolution hopefully yeah he didn't post anything yet so we did not post anything yet about zinski Dr field says sports betting investing trading Lottery casinos are all gambling many people are in denial about gambling for various reasons yeah I agree I agree dude Life's a gamble life is a gamble that's why I really try to get these arguments by people that are so upset about Hood G and then I just realized oh they're they're super long Sofi like like like I don't know at least 60% 70% of the people that I see on Twitter that are upset about this they have Sofi in their bio and I'm like okay so this is this this is the real issue the real issue is like you're just upset that Sofi doesn't innovate dude I've been you know I still have my Sofi options I have some Sofi shares but ever since noo posted that you shouldn't talk about the stock on Twitter and he like com he's like hey these screenshots are like you shouldn't post these screenshots I just I've had a salty taste in my mouth since then I'm like how's the CEO of a company telling his biggest supporters not to talk about it on X that's just so weird bro so freaking weird but regardless I think sofi's undervalued and that that's the difference between me and the and the people that hate Hood but they love Sofi I can say Sofi is undervalued and I can say I'd see a bull case for Sofi they can never admit that Hood's doing anything good they find every reason to complain about hood and I'm just like all right I don't get why we can't all be friends but that's how they operate admit do you think the administration can get the tenure under 3.5% without a recession yes I don't think we need to have a recession to get to 3.5 um but it's gonna be hard like we need to show enough weakness in the economy to get the 10 year to come down but not enough that it causes a recession which I don't know how they're going to tow that line but that is their plan and we're gonna have to see if it ends up working out Adit you day trade no I mean I've done day trades before the closest thing I've done to a day trade this year was smci uh which wasn't a day trade it was more like a we it was more like a two week three- week trade to be honest but yeah in terms of like legit looking at a stock at 10 and trying to sell it at 11 intraday I don't really do that last time I gambled was when I married my wife well that's that's that's a hell of a gamble as well right that is a hell of a gamble as well um Amit can you admit that gambling is a decisive issue yes it is definitely decisive I mean that's what I learned this week it's decisive people are very upset about it for some reason I don't know bro maybe I'm too libertarian on this thing maybe I'm just like let people do what they especially because it's not kids bro like if you're on Robinhood you are an adult you are in the real world and if you're an adult and you know the average age is is closing in on their mid-20s like you have to deal with real world consequences these are not teenagers that are using Robinhood that are very susceptible to all these problems if we're not going to treat these people as adults like I don't know like to me it's it's it shouldn't be that big of a concern but that's what people think you did you see Tim Walt videos on X yes I did it's not good in my opinion it was very sad to see him be this against Tesla in this way you know there was something so Tim Waltz had another interview uh yesterday actually I don't know if I have the clip but basically he was on Gavin Nim's podcast and new was like why do you think the Democrats lost and uh he was like well the reason we lost is because everyone is racist and sexist it's like racism and misogyny and you could see Gavin Newsome pushing back which you know there there's there's a lot of Rumblings that Newsome's trying to be the 2028 candidate and essentially Newsome's pushing back and Newsome's like hey it it might not just be about racism and misogyny it might be more about working class problems uh poor white people exist in this country and they voted for Trump not because they're racist or sexist this again Newsome saying this yesterday which you wouldn't expect Nome to say this but it's because of uh fears about the economy and Tim Waltz basically was like he literally said well I'll just kick their ass I I'll kick their ass of all the people that are being racist and sexist and you could tell Nome was just like so uh so uncomfortable because I think nome's realizing there is no way in hell the Democrats are going to win in 2028 if you go the identitarian politics route if you go down the route of like it's racism it's sexism it's misogyny it's transgender issues it's all of this stuff because one could argue politically that's the reason they lost they didn't focus enough on the issues and so I think you got Nome who's getting a lot of these right-wing people like Steve Bannon on his podcast trying to form a a new Democratic party for 2028 to basically make the case that he cares more about the issues versus identity politics and based on the video Tim Waltz came out with today basically saying it's nice for Tesla's stock to go down you can tell it's rooted in a lot of this tribalism identity politics stuff I don't know how it's going to play out in 2028 but I I I I think we can all assume for 2024 a lot of it had to do less with your identity and more with the issues and right now the question is going to be if those issues change yeah I agree the Dems could easily win if they just change their strategy easily they could win if they just focus on like core issues that people care about like health care for all Medicare for all basically the stuff Bernie Sanders ran on in 2015 I think they could run a populist movement and get a lot of people to vote for them but they went the identity route and sometimes it's tough for that to to win yeah culture War especially culture War it's a distraction many times and at least this time the the American people didn't vote for it but I think it's gonna be important because I mean look we're going to see what the next Administration looks like in 2028 a lot of people thinking JD Vance has it in the bag but you never know dude Newsome I by the way I said Nome should have ran in 2024 I said he would have been a way better candidate I thought he was going to run and then they picked Harris and I was like I feel like Newsome would have put up a fight because Newsome's a dog bro Nome will fight and he can talk he can actually like really communicate like he's a great communicator and so I thought he would he would really go for it but but uh yeah he ended up not really playing a major role okay let's get some more updates on Nvidia right here we have an analyst talking a bit bit about um what we saw at GTC and then we'll keep going from there we got jpow in a couple hours on these rate Cuts I think they've they've tackled that actually maybe we'll get into that with our next guest he's a longtime researcher in the AI area spoken on the subject in front of G7 leaders Regulators business Executives in addition to specifically helping shape the Department of Defense uh AI strategy Gregory Allen Center for strategic and International Studies he's director of the wadwani AI Center Jo us right here great to be with you nice to be with you too I guess let's first start off I assume you were listening uh and probably paid attention yesterday as well you have any big takeaways for us in terms of what you heard and what you believe from what you heard well I think uh Hong was trying to emphasize that the Tariff policy impact is not going to happen to him at least not in the near term but the reality is these policy moves are already having an impact just on the stock price which is being dragged down by the overall price to earnings multiple compression that we're seeing being Market wide but there's other policy moves that they need to happen in order for that realization to come true if you want to have $1 trillion in data center capex that means that you need an energy infrastructure buildout that is adequate to supply the power for all of those new data centers and one of the biggest barriers to building new energy infrastructure is regulatory red tape so this is a question when you're talking about going from the data centers that we have today which are tens of megawatts or low hundreds of megawatts to Gig or multiple gwatt scale data centers that is a massive new energy buildout and it's not just new energy infrastructure it's very concentrated and Consolidated infrastructure really coalescing around that data center site so if you're state and local Regulators you're looking at all of this and saying am I going to raise Grandma's electricity bill is this something that we really want to take on in our region now the bid Administration in its final weeks passed an executive order that was designed to sort of accelerate the approv process for energy permitting and for electrical infrastructure the Trump Administration has been talking a big game on this but they have yet to make any big moves yeah I mean you know every announcement we see now is often accompanied with uh companies such as geova and next era for example even today La Rock adding them to their sort of partnership to build the next generation of data centers but Wang yesterday was talking about it being the gating issue in terms of whether we can actually have the power supply we need by the way I don't even know what it's going to mean if he's right on robots and we're plugging those in every night as well yeah um you know in terms of the grid uh you know can we actually meet the challenge so there's definitely no shortage of money capital is lining up to not just build these new data centers but to also build the electrical infrastructure but there are real questions around the regulatory red tape and also the supply chain constraints if you're talking about building new natural gas turbine generators for example there's only so many companies that are involved in that and their order books have already been filled for a long time so those are the kinds of questions definitely Nvidia can do it definitely tsmc can do it can The Regulators do it can the rest of the supply chain do it that's kind of the open question see and again that's the same analysis we're getting from these salside uh uh equity research firms around Nvidia which is that it's not a demand problem it is a supply chain problem it's a regulation problem it's a this and that problem can you get everyone to start cooperating and working together and the announcement today with black rock shows further progress with data centers but it's not that the demand isn't there and this is I think the thing that everyone is confused about and Steve the most you guys have heard him on the show many times just like he doesn't understand why people are selling off Nvidia off this whole cyclicality thing when it's not about it being cyclical it's or it's about it um not having the ability for them to grow it's about is the ecosystem even there to support them and that's a dip you buy because if the ecosystem eventually will scale up to support the demand for gpus it means the demand for gpus is not going away anytime soon and it's not this boom and bust like Nvidia had back in 2020 with crypto mining right like that was obviously like a bubble this entire AI Revolution feels more like a like a sustained at least fiveyear Journey if not 10 year journey and so that is why I continue to believe in video cheap because eventually the earnings in the free cash flow will catch up to the price and this multiple will get expanded when the volatility dies down but it's not like they're's they're massively struggling with a with supply problem uh X is valued at 44 billion uh Elon did buy shares of X at 44 billion that news came out yesterday which was very interesting that Elon is um buying up Shares near his current price so this was from Bloomberg uh Elon invested 150 million last year to buy more shares in X at a valuation close to 44 billion he's also opening he's also open to buying more minority Stakes at the same valuation according to Bloomberg uh seems like he's bullish on X bullish on the potential of X bullish on the product really bullish on the platform I love the platform I use the platform all day the one thing I hate is the bots on the platform if Elon can get rid of that that would be phenomenal but uh it does look like he thinks this 44 billion price tag will eventually deliver some meaningful Roi I would buy X right now if I had a chance to I really would like I I I just use the platform all day I think I think it can become a billion user platform but they got to get rid of the Bots right now that's the the biggest issue to me uh thank you for the Super Chat he says I'll be honest with it my dad passed away last May and having your morning open and closing shows I know I've been able to keep my head busy with good things instead of thinking about the passing thank you Dylan that those are the comments that really mean the world to me I'm like first of all I'm sorry about your your dad passing away but um I really really appreciate uh you getting value from the show and having that be something to distract you from the passing away that's what I really want the show to be you know many times you never know what people are going through if they're interested in the stock market interested in Tech Finance like if the show can just be a form of escapism uh during that time you know because I I do that as well when I'm going through a tough time I use for things to escape from reality sometimes reality sucks right and we have to deal with the passing of people that are close to us um so yeah I appreciate you get a lot of value from the show Spencer says I just watch you so I have someone to bully so either you can watch me to take your mind off like horrible things happening in Life or you can watch me to bully that's also a that's also a way it goes but look at the end of the day I I think I think the value of the show hopefully should be to provide meaningful data and then the interpretation of that data on markets I know over the past couple of months it has gotten very political and I know some people think I'm the biggest Maga supporter ever other people think I'm the biggest liberal ever I've started to come at peace with it dude like I can't I I can't control it anymore like uh like there's half of you every day that are calling me horrible names and and hating me and like I just like I just have to take it there's nothing more I can do and then there there is another half of you that uh think I'm like the biggest libtard or however you want to like maybe I'm doing my job if 50% of you think I'm the biggest right-wing extremist and then the other 50% of you think that uh I'm the biggest liberal but at this point I don't know how much more I can make my thoughts clearer I am not super Maga I'm not super left my political stances are really rooted in the markets and I'm a fan of Elon because of what I think he's doing with doge is good for the markets I'm also a fan of Elon because I'm an entrepreneur and I value people that have actually built things in their life those are kind of where where my political beliefs line up I think Trump's doing some good stuff I think Trump's doing some stupid stuff I think calling Canada the 51st state is really stupid however I think engaging in cutting spending is really good and so like there there's nuances to all of this stuff and I know people think I'm sometimes swinging too much to one side or the other but the the the the sort of core argument here is I don't care about politics I don't but it is UN it is impossible to ignore it in the context of markets and I would love anyone to start their own show and try to not talk about the daily updates from Trump Elon Etc uh in the context of markets because you can't because everything affects the broader markets I'm not trying to be Ben Shapiro I don't give a about like impos like Ben Shapiro has a political belief he wants to impose on the world right um uh tyt they're like a super liberal Network on YouTube they have a political belief they want to impose on the world I don't give a I don't like you can agree on abortion hate abortion I don't care and I don't get any dopamine of being like that was a great show I convinced a bunch of people to like Trump or hate Trump like I don't give a I feel happy after the show if I think we took in all the data we tried to look at both sides of the data interpret the data and then make sense of what that data means for the broader markets and if there's enough entertainment and humor value for someone like Dylan to take his mind off of a crappy thing that's happening in his life to get some escapism by using the show like that's what really gives me joy from producing this content every single day and I love performing right I I love performing because the whole idea of of of what I wanted to do my whole life is is be a Creator be on stage and you know you guys know my story I wanted to be the next Michael Jackson I wanted to be this big rock star didn't end up having a chance to do that because I can't sing that well I can't dance that well but I can speak and I really love markets and so if I can combine those two p and able to every day that's what I love I can't that the world is becom politicized and half the world thinks elon's a na the other half thinks Elon is the greatest person on Earth and then I'm over here trying to analyze what's going on with Elon and if I don't exactly say oh wow he's a Nazi here half the chat hates you but if I say oh yeah I kind of don't like what Elon say here then the other half is like oh Amit thinks elon's a Nazi it's just like you can't like you can't navigate it and so the only other way you can navigate is by just not talking about politics but I I I promise you it would be very difficult to get to the show and you can watch Bloomberg CNBC as well you have to touch on these political issues these are part of how you analyze Mark like how do you talk about what's going on with Robin Hood without talking about the fact that Vlad gave $2 million to the Trump Administration like do we just not talk about that is Vlad a Nazi now you know like like or do we analyze oh he's giving two million to the Trump administration because of yada Y and he thinks it's going to help them in their lobbying efforts blah blah blah like do we make that analysis or do we just oh we're not going to talk about that because that Associates politics with Robin Hood because Trump's involved so we we can't discuss it and it's just like at the end of the day dude if you hate that we even bring up politics I I I don't know what to tell you like I can't I can't not talk about some of these subjects and all I can do is try to stay as impartial as I can I mean I have never told you guys who I voted for you guys can have your own assumptions but there's a reason I've never said who I voted for because there's no need for me to say that and then explicitly express my political beliefs and I of course obviously I have certain political beliefs and you guys can tell and I'm very obvious like I like Elon that is I guess a political belief now um but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm a fan of everything Trump does that also doesn't necessarily mean I hate everything that the Democrats are doing either right there are good things that the Democrats are advocating for in in this election they just didn't end up winning because they because there's like I I think I can make objective analysis that the Democrats focused a lot more on your racial identity whereas Trump focused on your economic condition you may think that Trump's policies to solve people's economic conditions are horrible but his marketing was focusing on that over if you're trans you should vote for me and that was the Divergence along with the fact that Trump actually went on podcast and commo went on CBS and CNN and like that's not where media attention was and that was the difference that is the most I don't know how that's political analysis that is the most objective way of analyzing how the Trump Administration used New Media to Market themselves talk about the issues that mattered and they got elected but you say that and people like oh well you're a Maga extremist I'm like I think at this point it's telling me more about people that immediately assume one side of the aisle that you're associated with just for analyzing the situation in and of itself and it's like I don't I don't know how else to how else to navigate that admit votes for the market correct that's what I care about that is honestly like dude there was a there was a good uh there was there was a good take by Andrew sches the other day he was on a podcast and he was just like if you're making money you don't care what bathroom someone goes to like if if your financial situation is good you care a lot less about the cultural problems in the Zeitgeist but if you're broke and you're losing a lot of money and the economy is failing and you can't find a job then you start really caring about all these cultural issues because you have nothing to distract yourself with because your life is not going anywhere because you're losing purpose why are you losing purpose because you probably don't have a job you probably don't have anything going for you this is what happens when we get a recession which is why no one should hope for a recession everyone's life gets hit pretty badly unless you're in the elite elite elite of the of the of the top 1 perc if you're not in that Elite top 1 percent I mean you are going to take a dramatic swing in terms of how your life operates um because your finances are going to be kicked and then you might start caring about stuff that probably isn't that important in the grand scheme of things but it's it's the it's the economic condition that gets you there so I I think the the point sches was making is that if the economy is good people will be able to function in a more peaceful way and you have a more Democratic Society because people stop caring about all the little minutias but if it's not then hits the fan pretty badly so I I I I I think that is is like the core way that I approach My Philosophy on Politics as well ocean says yeah you have an opinion and it's okay that you have an opinion yes it's okay for it to have an opinion and I and and the reason I'm going on this elongated rant right now honestly the market open is over so if anyone wants to leave you can I'll be back at 2 p.m for J palal but the reason I'm going on this rant is because every day 50% of you hate me 50% of you I wouldn't say love me but like you're you're you're you're okay with the analysis as long as it doesn't tow the line that gets your ideological belief upset and it's like that's just not how are we going to function like that if half of everyone hates me half and it's funny though the people that hate me because they think I'm like a Nazi sympathizer with Elon you guys come back into the chat every day to say you hate me it's like it's like yes you hate me but you're you're here to make sure you like it's like and that's what lets me know okay so this is more of a game right because if you really hated that I loved Elon or that I'm I'm I'm I'm I like Doge you just would stop watching the show You' be like okay I'm gonna go watch something that aligns with my beliefs but you keep coming back to the show to then say in the chat how much you hate Elon and how much adits a Nazi sympathizer which leads me to believe believe that something's going on personally in your life to then express it in the chat and like to get something off your chest versus that you don't actually like the show and I I don't know how to navigate that because I'm not GNA ban you I believe in free speech now have the mods been Banning some people that have been spamming ridiculously yeah because we're we're getting you know 5,000 people every day you're gonna get some spam and so like at some point if you keep spamming Trump's the best Trump's the best Trump the best or elon's a Nazi elon's a Nazi like no you're getting banned dude like you cannot just use the chat as your political Outlet to the World by just consistently spamming your political belief like at some point it's just going to the chat cannot function like that but for the most part all of you saying these very mean things about me it is what it is I really don't care I have a I have a thick skin my thin my my skin is so thick if you saw it at a club you would ask for its number it's that simple like I really quite frankly I don't give a what people say about me it's the nature of being a a public uh entity but I do care about people getting value from the show and when someone like Dylan says that uh he gets he get someone said you get a fake number that's hilarious when Dylan says he gets value of the show and allows him to escape from the he's dealing with in his real life that's what makes the show worth it to me not how many views the show gets not how many people show up not how much money it makes it's like someone's watching and they're watching to escape something else happening in their life and the content is a source of of of of um of just like Bliss at least for a certain amount of time for them to deal with with the they have going on because I do that as well with other content creators and I'm very grateful that those creators put out content that allow me to escape the I'm dealing with as well and everyone's dealing with everyone's dealing with and everyone needs a way to to navigate it that's what gives me value but I also can't deny that a lot of people hate anytime I say anything good about Elon and Trump and I'm just like okay I don't know I don't know what I have to say I don't know what else I could say bro especially when I I'm telling you guys don't give a about politics or imposing my political belief this is why I've not said who I ever voted for I know a lot of you guys think it's Trump you can think whatever you want maybe it is maybe it's not I did vote maybe it's for Trump maybe it's not but the reason I'm not saying it is not even because I don't want to say it like I kind of don't even give a about saying it I don't want to say it because I know it creates polarization and isolation and that's not the job of the show the job of the show is to focus on markets macro and politics and is imposed with markets but the job is not for me to be excited to be like oh I have all these people that are listening to me I'm going to them what I believe in around this very political thing or this like religious like why do I not talk about religion because if you're Muslim or Jewish or Hindu or atheist or Christian okay like what is my opinion have to do with that right same thing with politics but if it impacts the markets you know then it's an issue like if if the government pass the law that says hey like you need to go to church in order to be eligible to like get pay your taxes or some ridiculous like mixing of state and and church that would be egregious right like you need to believe in a certain religion to even like get a tax return like yeah we're gonna have to talk about that because that's some authoritarian crazy nonsense but as long as there's a separation from the markets and and and and the nature of religion or politics then we can keep them separate but if there's a combination of those two then we have to discuss it and we we can't avoid discussing it like some of you guys get triggered when I play a video of trump talking about tariffs it's like do do we just not listen to what the president of the United States has to say about tariffs are we not gonna are we not gonna listen to what he has to say I know you may not like the guy I'm not a fan of his rhetoric around the 51st state but do we not listen to what he has to say about tariffs I feel like that's that's still probably relevant to an extent that says admit I set my alarm and to you and listen to you every morning you are an escape to the land of Education Enlightenment and more lately hope thank you for that I appreciate it means a lot a lot a lot of you guys do wake up with me which is super cool and uh and then and then you know a lot of you guys listen to Market Clos at the end of the day and you go to sleep with me and that that's the relationship I care about nurturing over the long term but I just can't help if sometimes it does get a little political and we have to analyze that in the context of the markets oh Chris said send me a streamyard all right Christopher Patel is officially joining the show Chris was like enough of him it's rant we got to talk about the market Chris is saving you guys from this rant that's that's basically what Chris is doing he's like this stupid rant let's talk about the markets but dude at some point I had to address this dude because like there's like 5,000 people here every morning and legitimately maybe it's my brain rushing to a conclusion but it feels like half you guys think I'm a Nazi sympathizer because I like that doge is trying to solve issues in the government and then the other half of you if I do a slight critique on Elon or Trump it's like oh this guy's like liard I just like we we cannot have a functioning chat if everyone hates each other it's just not going to work like that you know we have to have some level of of like oh I can agree with this I can disagree with this all right let's move on versus being so IDE ideologically trapped in in her bubble Chris good morning how are you I'm good man just listen to your rant you know I I I just have to say if you disagree with me you're probably gay that's about like that's how I think of everything and there's nothing wrong with it just you know that's how I think like hey you're just gay and you you like it and it's okay and I'm okay with that you know it's about it so anyone in the chat who disagrees with me you're gay you know you don't like me you're probably gay about it I think you are making a metor here about how stupid it is to be this politicized essentially n dude it's just they're gay that's it well okay so what what's your actual take on what I'm saying then we'll talk about markets let's spend five minutes on this and let's go to markets or like two minutes but in general how are you thinking about the division that we have right now in society I mean there's a lot of gay people out there what else Chris seriously be serious well I'm being serious dude if you disagree with me you're gay that's it actually actually because you you've seen the chat as well dude you come on the you come on the stage and you'll say two words and people will start like you know think Chris is a all this stuff so how are you dealing with the politicization we have right now I tell you they're gay that's it I don't even think anything more than that like hey Chris is an all right you gay that's it done you know I don't even think of it far beyond that bro you know do you think about why 2 plus 2 equals 4 no I don't I just accept it like oh Chris is a okay you're probably gay that's it done no but look look I have the same mentality the only reason I'm addressing it today is because it's been like three weeks of like you say anything about Elon Adit loves the Nazis there you go and I'm just like all right bro I'm from the 90s okay in the 90s you didn't like someone that's it you know you moved on because they're probably gay that's it you know the stream's banned huh so the stream's definitely getting banned I mean there's nothing wrong with I I love gay people dude you know so you hate me you probably gay that's it I don't think you're far beyond that man and I don't think you should either just leave that alone you know if they want to disagree they want to disagree think about it this way if someone keeps coming on after they hate you bro that's such repressed gayness bro that's it well well I do think it's it's a repressed level of like having to tell this person they're a horrible person every day versus leaving which means you don't really believe that you just want in Outlet bro you ever you ever met a republican who's like anti-gay all the time he's probably gay yes you know so that's what it is when they like I hate Chris bro you probably love me secretly inside you know I don't I don't like AIT because he likes Elon bro that means that they're in love with Elon if Elon came and said Hey listen who want some of this come they'd be the first people people raise my hand hey Elon give me that come you know well he he does he does have a lot of people that want to be his baby mam okay so let let's get into let's get into markets what the hell's going on right now what do you think JP Pal's goingon to do today and do you think we're getting a cut or not well I'm hoping that um I'm hoping that he's a little bit delish to give the market some reprieve but I don't think it's necessary um I think what's really important is uh something that I listened to yesterday during the did you see the all in pod with jamath and freedberg and that remember I was talking to you about the SLR the ratios that the banks the remember I was on La I think last week and I said that the regulations around that are very very important so that's something that I'd probably follow allowing the banks to basically be Unshackled is I think a key part of uh of of what the administration is trying to do going forward so the spending has to shift from government spending to private sector spending or at least more private sector spending to make up for that difference now that transition period is what we're we're going to end up dealing with right now but it does mean that we'll get much lower inflation going forward capital tends to be a little bit more focused when it's coming from the private sector rather than from the from the government side the government side does a lot more blanket like uh blanket like you know send out of money and capital doesn't necessarily reach the parts that are the most productive parts of uh of the economy and they just kind of It kind of sloshes around so if you inject enough capit capital of course you're going to stimulate the economy but you're you're you're going to probably stimulate some not so good parts of it either so as an example like you look at PPP right the PPP Loan program initially essentially it was a good program because it really did help the American people like especially small businesses trying to get over um some of the impacts of covid but then you also had tremendous amounts of fraud that was happening you know so the question is what what if the private sector was involved in something like PPP well PPP because it's private sector capital I would hope that it would be a lot more stringent on who ended up getting those loans as opposed to the government who tends to just shovel money out the door so um like I said I think with um this transition we could probably see one lower inflation um but at the same and at the same time we could see like a productivity boost and productivity boost could probably give us that that growth that we need in order to kind of get around the current problem that we have with uh with um inflation and um and uh the debt so what do you think jpow says today then he's obviously not cutting rates so how does he navigate tariffs and the tenure coming down in order to get the market to be more sympathetic that a rate cut does happen sooner than later I think well first and foremost I don't think that there's going to be any Cuts right like that that's a pretty much a given at this point like if if we hear like oh my God the Jerome Powell is going to be cutting today shoot I think the markets would actually move down because that means that there might be some serious issues um I think on the other hand if the if the the Fed was saying at least like you know verbage that supports future rate Cuts or at least more than what the market is expecting that could be very helpful you know like oh we're within with within our ranges or something like that that basically gives some Market confidence you know so I mean like I said very very careful in listening to the rhetoric basically but like is there a certain type of inflation that he's gonna talk about because CPI and PPI were really good last week right so so so is there something he needs to say and but bond yield didn't really move down so I guess my question is what do you think gets bond yields Down based on his rhetoric is they're a part of inflation like shelter or something he needs to mention specifically um I think it's going to be longer term like his the summary of economic projections is what's going to really um give us the give us the the rub on what exactly is going to happen my biggest concern is summary of economic projections shows that inflation is going to be stickier in which case now the FED is likely going to keep rates off the table for longer um the 10 year one thing that you have to remember that impacts it is that while we right now are somewhat you know like tightening the rest of the world is actually spending more money right so you're seeing China you're seeing Japan you're seeing Europe they're spending more money they're going into deficits more so you know that's that's money that's basically not leaving their markets and coming to ours as a safety play it's kind of like staying away so because of that the the number of Bond buyers may not be very significant so unless the FED can really like you know give this impression that future inflation is going to be materially lower than what it is today I think a lot of people in the bond Bond side are not going to be like oh yeah let me go buy a 10-year treasury they're going to probably say you know I could buy treasuries in my local um in my local currency and especially right now with the US dollar week that's another thing to consider also you know so I think we're we're at a point right now where we really need short-term rates to start coming down in order to stimulate some businesses mainly because some businesses um are starting to take on water and they have floating rate debt which is indexed to um which is indexed to the to the sulur sulur rate so uh overnight funding rate so uh do you also think we're going to get the regulations pass soon to get the banks to buy more treasuries not just the banks um but basically a lot of uh a lot of businesses and other things that um so so all right let me let me actually step back let me explain that one one of the things is a lot of companies right now are holding on to short-term treasuries right like a lot of like a lot of companies when you look at their earnings you're seeing on their balance sheet that they have all this like short-term paper right like Palante here right now is getting four for change from their from their cash Holdings right yeah all these businesses have a lot of cash on their hands and they're all having they're all in short-term treasuries now the thing is if you want to coax them into like buying some longer term treasuries right which are very still very liquid or at least further up the the the um the interest chain you're GNA have to cut rates at the short end so if you cut rates at the short end they're going to say well I'm getting 2% for this and I could get a 10% on the the treasury right like a at a at a higher interest rate let me let me not like my next renewal not do the overnight overnight uh treasury right or the short-term treasury or the money markets let me buy the 10e out right so a lot of people right now even in money markets they're sitting on short-term treasuries and they're happy with it because they're still getting a pretty decent return that's at the same level as that 10e so as the as the overnight funding rates starts to go down money market rates are going to start coming down also and people are going to be looking for yield and the thing is especially if you're retirement fund or something like that or especially if you're a retiree you're you're probably going to be leaning more towards hey let me buy that 10-year treasury because I no longer get that 4% return sitting in money market so if you want Capital flows to go in a certain direction you kind of have to basically play the seawing game where right now if you want people to buy that 10 year you need to kind of lower rates at the short end so that people term out that ter out that debt and they end up you know um causing that 10 year to come down so if you remember that this is some this is something that happened in like uh September where inflation expectations had dropped so a lot of people were buying treasuries and treasuries 10 year the 10 year went down all the way to like three point something yeah you know so right now there's no clear indication that the FED is going to be lowering rates by a good amount of good amount or a good a good good chunk right now so people are willing to just chill in their in their um in their shortterm uh short-term treasuries so yeah so like I guess a bullish uptrend based on japal calming down the markets around inflation expectations and then maybe bassent and Trump getting the tenure to come down would be uh movement for the markets to the upside however then you've got April 2nd and I think that just no one knows what the hell happens then right yeah yeah I mean at this point you got to let the numbers do the talking for you you know like CPI PPI all the pce all these things are trending in the right direction and so if they Trend in the right direction like for an extended period of time then inflation expectations will come down right now inflation expectations are still relatively high so I think that I think they should actually in my opinion I think the FED should already have started cutting but then again you know you don't want to be too too uh what's the word like too too weak on it right because if you have to kind of like raise again then you'll cause more turmoil so I think the FED is doing a wait and see approach the only thing is a lot of the data that I'm seeing is already telling me that inflation's going to be coming down Mass l in the next probably six months and the biggest component that I think is going to be driving that down is shelter yeah and what I'm sharing right here on the screen is uh uh the White House economic adviser saying hey we are getting closer to negotiating about lowering tariffs before April 2nd I think this is my belief I think there's not going to be tariffs I think they will come out with either an extension or an agreement that Canada's going to give up whatever On the Border fentol whatever and there won't be tariffs what is your gut feeling you think we actually Implement them on April 2nd um they're probably I mean April 2nd is when we start doing reciprocal tariffs and stuff so I think the goal ultimately is to lower trade barriers and that could be a very positive Tailwind for us you know us producers who've basically been locked out of uh out of other markets because of the tariffs that they've had so the the thing is like even even though it sounds a little bit perverse this threat of you know reciprocal tariffs might actually end up being that free trade the real free trade economy that we're looking forward to you know that that we would want so that American workers or American businesses have a chance to effectively uh compete around the world the only thing is the way that it's being done is not necessarily what you know a lot of people would like it's almost like here's a gun like you know you're pointing a gun at someone and saying lower your trade barriers you know or be my friend and it's like that's not how you end up being someone's friend you you kind of have to you know like talk to them and get to know them and you know share your concerns and stuff you do it behind the scenes but the Trump Administration is just very like blunt like you put tariffs on me I'll put tariffs on you and that's it like we're not gonna we're we're not going to play around with this you know yeah all right last question for you Chris uh Nvidia any takeway from GTC yesterday I mean I didn't really watch much of it the only thing is I think the market may be pricing in weakness in future growth for NVIDIA and even though a lot of the products that they showed off were really cool I think a lot of them are really further out than what people are expecting and I think their biggest Revenue driver right now is data center so one of the things that worries me about this data center economy is that if there isn't as much tangible as much demand as a lot of people are kind of like alluding to then Nvidia has some serious challenges in the future when it comes to its growth right because it's had such a strong year it's a really hard year to comp against so we'll see what happens like as an example I think one of the things that started to worry me was Microsoft um cutting some of the leases on their data centers that they've already had had so they had planned on some capex that they kind of cut back on and I I I worry that going forward we could see the same thing happening with Google uh meta Amazon where they're not gonna like not spend money on AI infrastructure but they just may not spend as much money and if that comes out then Nvidia could take a massive uh massive drop because their revenue is very cyclical right yeah but I but I think what I got from the conference is that it's not cyclical that's and if you're paying 53 times for Costco and 27 times for NVIDIA where we don't have to go through the growth metrics but it's just night and day even if it is cyclical it's cyclical what for 24 months 36 months it's not cyclical for 12 months that's what I'm confused semiconductors semiconductors by Nature are just cyclical businesses dude no no agreed but what Nvidia introduced yesterday even if they are more far out well first of all the 100x compute demand I think is not far out if all these companies are adoped reasoning models you need more infrastructure right like that that's just and and everyone's using uh reasoning in their answers now because it's better answers so you need more compute unless unless Jensen is wrong about that I think you're gonna need more chips and then robots yeah they're they're years out but those are coming soon even if it's three four years like they're gonna all need Invidia chips and so I'm confused why the Street's discounting it outside of the cyclicality narrative but maybe that's the only narrative that they have but then you also have like the things with deep seek right where deep seek Prov that maybe you don't need as much compute to get the same end points that you were looking for so you know there's also a part that's like Hey listen it's not all about just compute it could also be about efficient compute as well you know so I think I think this is just like I said the market is just weighing in all the negatives and and saying okay yeah we could be in for some you know some short-term weakness and there's no reason why we should be in Nvidia while while that that period uh what's happens that normalization happens basically you know soot like I said one of the one of the challenges that people are going to face right now and and this is the sad part is everyone keeps saying well future PE is going to be X blah blah blah and I'm like okay well what if earnings revisions change you know oh no no no that can't happen no businesses change their earnings all the time bro that's just not how it works you know if you get revised if earnings get reved down then yeah that's then your forward PE it's doesn't really doesn't really Jive and the challenge with uh with all of that is that right now the FED I mean the federal government is kind of like cutting back so there's liquidity leaving the market and as the Market's you know it's liquidity is leaving people are not exactly like Juiced up to spend more money and it's the same thing with businesses businesses not like oh yeah let me buy a product that untested I don't know if I need it like you know and and and you know risk probably dealing with uh dealing with like non uh um dealing with um what is it called like uh not as good returns so I'd say I'd say right now business optimism is is slowing down and that could end up reverberating into earnings and that's the same thing with the consumer I think the consumer is starting to kind of weaken a little bit at least the sentiment on the consumer side is weakening which means additional spending is likely to be somewhat curtailed so yeah I agree I just still think Nvidia is cheap I mean Che bro it's cheap by a lot of metrics Nvidia is cheap but the thing is can it maintain that that um that growth rate yeah I think that's I I think that's the the disagreement between the Bulls and the Bears and I think they can GTC gave me more confidence they can maybe I'm wrong but I think that's the story over the next four or five years years yeah it's it's all about the confidence on the the the consumers I mean the the business side to say okay you know what this indust this the thing is not slowing down I think deep seek really did a number because deep seek kind of proved that comput raw compute is not the only thing that we need we kind of want to have efficiency as well and if you can actually get the levels of efficiency that deep seek um proved out then hey maybe there's not as much need for for uh for uh compute as uh Jensen is saying the other challenge also and this is something that I'm not sure a lot of people talking about but you know the hyperscalers they're coming up with their own architectures you know like like Amazon with their training yeah but but that's not that's irrelevant to me Amazon's selling a crappier version of the h100 they're not competing with Blackwell or Reuben or what nvidia's working on like like yeah there's going to be some sales that go away because Amazon can sell you the in-house tranium chip but that's not what is nvidia's multiple is based on it's based on Blackwell right I mean dude if if anything that Amazon comes up with you know decreases future Nvidia demand that just means that Nvidia future growth is going to come down sure but they have to come up with something as good as Blackwell I haven't seen any evidence of them doing that maybe that could happen I agree I think for me it's about commoditization right like you were saying before AI is becoming more and more commoditized and the thing is the more it's commoditized the less likely it is that it's going to provide like real tangible returns um to the extent that it it forces people to spend billions of dollars on a you know on on certain um certain suppliers so Amazon real is realizing hey well if we can do tranium even if we can get to about 95% of what the blackw chip gets done or 90% no no Chris that that's a really heavy statement like they're doing that for h100 which was Generations ago Blackwell I mean like again I you'd have to really bet the R&D ins out of Amazon Google and Microsoft can compete with Nvidia that I'm just not with yeah but there's also broadcom there's Google right there's meta like everyone is doing their own things too man so I'd say we need to stop treating Nvidia like they're the only player in town that's all yeah I mean look it comes down to if you're bullish or bearish on that thing do you agree they have a monopoly on this or do you don't do you not and that kind of determines the multiple is there anything you're buying right now uh I'm not really looking to buy too many things right at this moment um until I get more clarification from the fed and where the economy is headed the only thing I am bullish on is natural gas so you know me in my Venture Global thing Venture Global and next decade are doing well um and I think that's the the the play for me for the rest of this year I am looking at possibly buying the cruise lines um or at least buying more more of the cruise lines because I already have a pretty substantial position um because I think their cash flows are still pretty heavy I mean uh still pretty good and uh they'll be able to kind of there's some Tailwinds that are coming for the cruise industry um in the next probably uh year to two years depending on which Cruise Line you're you got you got to be betting there's no recession for the cruise line well that's not necessarily true I think I Chris like logically if there's a recession people are not going on cruises I mean do you know how many baby boomers there are and how but you think they would want to go on a cruise in a time of massive economic uncertainty like that just feel it doesn't it doesn't logically make sense yeah I think it does I think it does actually why would someone go on a cruise when the economy is melting in front of them well one to get away from things and two because Cruise lands provide a lot of value for your money so people usually go and you know people are not going to stop vacationing people are not going to stop like trying to you know get away from things no but even okay so let's say the Baby Boomers do that doesn't mean every single uh seat on the cruise line is going to be unless all of them are baby boomers right there's no and gen Z that might not I think I think the thing is when it comes to recessions you have a certain segment of the population that's going to be disproportionately impacted okay and that that portion is not going to go on cruises but in my opinion that that that seg is not necessarily the biggest customers anyway if you look at the capacity on cruise lines they're usually trading at pretty pretty like pretty full on capacity then you've also got International passengers that are that are coming in you know so there's other things that could end up you know giving giving that capacity a boost so I don't think that we're in this zone of hey the cruise lines are like if the economy goes down the cruise lines are going to go down like a cruise lines can now navigate their way around things the other thing is fuel costs are coming down significantly which helps their bottom lines right and then on top of that if we do go into recession that means that now you're going to have a tremendous amount of rate cutting that's going to follow and the cruise lines are capital intensive businesses that part makes sense because their debt gets ref that part I 100% agree yeah and if their debt gets refinanced at lower rates you know or if they're able to borrow at cheaper rates and that means that once again that hits their bottom line so yeah I mean there might be some Topline like growth reductions but you also see significant bottom line improvements so I'm just looking at Delta's guidance last week they cut 50% q1 guidance for uh sales uh and then the cruise lines tanked on that and so what if we actually get a recession where the cruise lines or Delta is like yeah people aren't traveling anymore like what does that mean at that point so one of the things about Airlines especially like something like Delta a lot of their money actually comes from business travel and also comes from government travel so if Government and businesses are pulling back on spend then yeah it's going to disproportionately impact you know Airlines who is paying for cruise who's paying government or businesses to go on cruises yeah that's so I don't think that that's necessarily A onet to one I mean the market can think of it as oneto one but I I don't think that is the case and if you look at like this note that came out of JP Morgan they basically re reiterated the same thing that hey they don't see any slow in Cruise demand even though if the market is kind of slowing down on other parts it's like no there's there's not there isn't enough at least from what I'm seeing there isn't enough capacity to meet the existing demand and the reason why you're seeing a lot of the cruise lines be able to raise prices is because they've been able to kind of like have uh have this giant plora of people willing to go on cruise line cruises then um that that AR I'm telling you you got have you been on a cruise you know right no I've been uh was like 2014 Mexico I'm telling you go on a cruise now you'll see the difference between between then and now there's it's a much more different thing differentiated product it's a lot more focused on um providing all these value added services that are super high margin that that that weren't even around in 2014 like here's an example the sizes of the ships they're scaled up bigger but at the same same time the the the amount of like fuel that gets expensed is actually a lot lower the other thing is like a lot of them have starlink right now right so the cruise lines you're no longer in this like metal box that's basically like disconnected from the world that's what it like when I went in 2014 it was horrible for yeah it's not like that at all I mean right now you like I said you could still be doing your morning stream from a cruise if you really wanted you know so yeah yeah all right we will uh I'll be back live for JAL guys Chris thank you for your thoughts Chris's Twitter right here in the chat and I guess today is going to be really important to see if we can get any level of momentum but then April 2nd's gonna be really what matters by the way some people in the chat calling me gay yeah dude I'm gay it's okay what's wrong with that I I'll let my wife know bro you know I I hope I hope she didn't listen to the segment on Friday that was a which one yeah she always listens I always she always finds a way to listen bro get the tongue lashing later you know well you have a nice uh nice by the way gay just means happy I don't know if you know that I well I definitely know that there you go see given all the gay comments I get I definitely all right thank you appreciate it talk later bye all right cool we are done for the day I'll be back at um 2:20 and we'll see what Happ happens with jpow in about an hour no two hours we get the decision it's going to be a I was going to say cut it's going to be a pause it's not going to be a cut because we know it's not gonna be a cut but uh at 2:30 we'll be able to see whatever Mr Jerome pal has to say to us um yeah that's pretty much it look in terms of the the last topic we were talking about right before the before Chris came on at the end of the day it's it's nothing personal or it's nothing getting to me it's just I wanted to address it because again if if half you guys hate even bringing up Politics the only thing I can say is like you can't keep up with the show then because there's going to be some intersections of Politics on the stock market that we have to discuss it's just impossible not to discuss it but for those that that want to keep watching to consistently spam that I'm a Nazi sympathizer I just don't think that's productive dude it's like and I don't want to ban people because I believe in free speech I don't want to ban people for saying whatever they feel but at some point it's like it's not it's not it's not a productive chat at that point you can have disagreement I'm fine if you hate Elon or Trump but then going all that way to the angle where you're like all right well you Adit you like Nazis it's it gets toxic you know and like I get it we're in a very politicized time but all I'm trying to do let me I I just want to my intentions my intentions with your daughter now my intentions are I want to talk about the markets in relation to politics I do not care care about becoming a Ben Shapiro even though I can talk faster than him I do not care about becoming a Dave Ruben I do not care about become I don't want to be in politics one day I don't want to be the next vice president I don't care about starting my own Media company that is rooted in politics I don't care about that stuff I am only talking about it because it has to deal with the markets that's it that's it the only thing I care about is the markets and it in relation to markets like I don't wake up in the morning I'm like oh what's this juicy Trump thing I can talk about I'm like no Trump's talking about tariffs all right we got to talk about it this is just this what's going to be like for four years and so if people hate that I mean I guess you can just find something else to consume but like the goal is not for you to jump into the show and be like Oh am it's influencing my political beliefs because that's not my I don't care I truly don't care but if amid is talking about what Trump just said and I hate Trump so much that I can't stand that he's even mentioning Trump then I'm like I I don't know what to do at that point I really cannot control it because we've got to analyze this stuff there's no way we get away with not analyzing it in the context of the markets uh word of the day is how the hell do you say this thing Paragon parag paragan Manon par Paragon permanon P okay there's no way anyone thought this was permanon the ju the position of words that have a common root the title of the Jane Austin book Sense and Sensibility is an example of a per on his speech relied on permanon to drive the point home repeating fighting fights and building buildings to emphasize the weight of his words okay this word sucks we're gonna get a different word permanon there's no way any of you guys have heard of the word permanon okay this word's a little bit more simpler but I know this word Consortium Consortium Consortium is a fancy word of a group you form for an Enterprise beyond what any one member could do alone all the grocery stores in your neighborhood might form a Consortium for the promotion of local strawberries that word kind of sucks too but it's better than Perman or whatever um you guys have not heard of that word before bro pereg manam what is that what is that like I've have not heard of that why did you bring up Tim Waltz today I brought up Tim Waltz because he said explicitly he likes that Tesla stock is going down that's why I brought him up I didn't bring him up to to dive into the nature of the political aspirations between the Democrats and the Republicans I brought him up to say oh wow Tesla a stock that a lot of people care about a lot of people have a lot of money in this is a US politician saying that it should go down I would bring up a republican saying that some uh stock should I mean we talk about this D we talk about companies that have been so anti meta and like we talked about JD Vance and his stance against big Tech this whole idea of Google actually acquiring whiz is JD Vance's FTC actually gonna allow it to happen because JD Vance like he likes Tech but he's been in the startup World more than he's been in the big Tech world and he's not a fan of big Tech if you've looked at his uh lectures over the past so that is a political correlation between a politician which Waltz is still a politician right now in Minnesota and their perspectives on a stock or a sector of the markets and then we're analyzing what that means in the broader context of the markets but it's not I hate Tim Waltz I love JD Vance I hate JD Vance I led Tim well it's just like how does this make sense in the context of Tesla or Google and then yeah my personal opinion there is that I think it's despicable for someone to want millions of American workers that have Tesla stock forget the shareholders like like Tim Walt definitely doesn't care about the shareholders of Tesla I'm talking about the actual employees that work to make those cars to see them get burned down like th that is Despicable to me to see an American politician want that to go away that's my personal belief and if that's political then the show is not going to be fun if I can't have a little bit of my personal opinion and I think you guys would enjoy having zero opinion but I feel like that opinion is not that political that's just in my opinion common sense and maybe people want to say well it's actually common sense for him to be against Tesla stock and for Teslas to be burned down okay then we just have a disagreement but I can refrain from commenting about a lot of things on politics like abortion I don't need to give my opinions on that but then when it relates to the markets like it does with Tesla today yeah you you you give your opinion on that you don't have to agree with it but those are the opinions that I think are valuable to give not the opinions on you know what I think about abortion or what's another hot political topic besides my mind always goes to abortion but um there's there's tons of them that I don't think I've ever given my opinion on because I just don't care like gun rights like yeah I have an opinion on it but am I like am I here to lecture you guys about the Second Amendment no I care about the First Amendment because I am a Creator my life is based on being able to freely speak and YouTube and X help democratize the ability for me to speak so yeah I care about the First Amendment but am I gonna tell you what I think about Mass school shootings and and gun laws and the NRA no because I like it has nothing to do with the markets nothing to do with the market so I don't care that's all I want to get across to everybody my intentions in this stream are to have a good fund show about the markets and politics relates to the markets but it's not to influence people in any way because I truly do not care who you vote for I do not care who you sleep with I don't care about your religion I don't care about your sexuality I care about if we're buying the dip or not like that should be a quote bro that that needs to be entrenched that needs to be on a shirt it needs to be on like on a tombstone or something I don't care about your sexuality your religion I care about if we're buying the dip or not that's a hell of a quote it's a banger it's a banger in my opinion but um yeah and I care about you guys enjoying the stream bro I care about people having a good time when they show up in the morning and getting a lot of information and details and and and they don't have to agree with everything but I but I hope people get value from it and that's why you come back not because I have an agenda I don't have an agenda dude there is no agenda the agenda is making money and I like certain stocks that I will analyze more deeply and hopefully that can help other people make money but the broader point is let's all find a way to try to make some money that is the goal here all right I think that's it pal speaking in about two hours I'll be live in um basically 90 minutes and um yeah we'll be covering what poell says yes I need a mocktail that's facts bro I need a mocktail I'm gonna go get some water that'll be my mocktail since there's no there's no alcohol in it all right cool that's it I'll be back in a bit and uh we'll see what happens with J palal thank you everybody appreciate you guys see you guys in about two hours bye everyone
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