저자: 미상 · 외국인
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ARK의 최근 매매를 분석: Roku·Tempest AI는 경쟁 포화·적자·고부채·내부자 매도 등 위험으로 축소. Alibaba·BIDU(중국 AI/클라우드) 및 Pony AI 등 고위험 성장주 확대, Figma는 주가 급락 후 매수. 90% 매출총이익률과 흑자 전환에도 밸류에이션 부담과 이익 감소 전망, VC·CEO 매도 신호를 함께 지적. 개별 투자 권유가 아닌 ARK 포트폴리오 해설 형식.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Facts Not Forecast, your daily edge in the stock market facts, insights, and opportunities you won't hear anywhere else. And this is the first deep dive in our new series, building your portfolio the ARK way. Uh each week, we'll be breaking down Kathy Wood's latest trades. you know what ARK is trimming, what it's doubling down on,
and crucially what specific lessons you can maybe take away to sharpen your own portfolio, you know, without paying those fund fees. Exactly. Okay, let's unpack this week. We've looked at the data and ARK trimmed holdings in Roku and Tempest AI kind of shedding exposure there, right? Consumer tech and health AI getting trimmed.
But what really pops, I think, are two pretty high conviction buys. First, a renewed uh strategic bet on China. Big names like Alibaba. Yep. Leaning back into China tech. And second, maybe more surprising, a multi-million dollar buy into Figma, the SAW disruptor. That one definitely raised some eyebrows.
So, our mission today is really to break down what these well contrasting signals might mean for investors like you. Yeah. And the big picture insight, I think, is pretty clear. ARK is actively swapping one type of risk for another. How so? Well, they seem to be trading out of companies facing, let's say, maturing competition or some tricky financial signals
like Roku and Tempest. Exactly. And trading at these really big structural, sometimes quite expensive bets on platform technology. Okay, let's start with what they're shedding then, understanding the trims. Why pull back from Roku? I mean, it's an established platform still forecast for pretty massive earnings growth, right?
It is. On paper, Roku looks like a growth hold. You know, analysts forecast uh 56.32% earnings growth per year. It's huge. And the balance sheet debtree, our sources confirm totally pristine balance sheet. So why sell if the finances look clean and the growth projection is fantastic. What's the uh the red flag ARK is seeing?
I think it boils down to competitive risk. Yeah. And profitability screen. Oh, okay. Roku is currently unprofitable. TTM earnings were around negative $61.5 million. And critically, the sources point to this heavy reliance on digital ad revenue, which is very volatile. And there's the mounting threat from tech giants bundling content.
Think Google, Amazon, right? They're everywhere. So, ARK seems to be shedding a position where yeah, future high growth is forecast, but it's overshadowed by immediate unprofitability in a market that's well getting dominated by giants. So, an exit based more on market dynamics, the competitive landscape, not just the numbers themselves.
I think that's a good way to put it. Avoiding that saturation risk. Okay, that makes sense for Roku. How does that compare to trimming Tempest AI temp on the NASDAQ? That's an AI health tech company. Seems right in ARK's wheelhouse. It does seem like it. And the stock was up over 64% in the last year.
So, why trim that? Tempest AI looks like a different kind of risk they're avoiding. Yes, the market was enthusiastic, but the fundamental risks h they're flashing red when you dig in. Like what? First, the company's unprofitable and the projections suggest it will not hit profitability over the next 3 years.
That's a key point. Okay, still burning cash. And second, its financial structure is well, tenuous. The debt to equity ratio, it's going to get a very high 257.8%. Whoa. Okay, wait. High debt and expecting to burn cash for three more years. That sounds rough, especially now. Precisely in this high interest rate environment.
Tough combo. And then there's one more critical warning signal. Our sources flagged significant insider selling over the past 3 months. That's never great to see. No. When VCs, founders, key players are actively trimming their stakes. And the stock price around $84 is already trading above the consensus fair value estimate of about $73.
It suggests the smart money thinks there's maybe short-term downside risk. exactly that it might outweigh the long-term AI potential for now. So, ARK seems to be trading out of companies carrying significant debt and importantly that strong negative insider signal. Okay, so we've identified the red flags they're avoiding.
Competitive saturation, unprofitability, high debt, insider selling. Now, let's pivot. Let's go to where ARK is actively embracing risk. Starting with that renewed conviction in Beijing. This is where it gets really interesting, I think. increasing exposure to Chinese AI and tech firms Alibaba BU. What makes China compelling now given all the, you know, geopolitical stuff, regulatory uncertainty?
Look, this feels like a strategic statement about long-term platform leadership. ARK seems to be betting on China's, let's call it, self-sufficiency in AI and cloud. They likely view the current lower valuations as a window, inoperim. Yeah, take Alibaba. It's generally seen as trading at a pretty good value compared to Western peers.
Yeah. And last year its earnings growth was frankly exceptional, up 112.9%. Hold on. Aren't the core segments like cloud and e-commerce getting hammered by competition and regulation over there? Is this really a stable bet or just adding political risk on top of market risk? That's the tension. Absolutely.
But ARK seems focused on the future growth drivers. The sources highlight Alibaba's core strategy. heavy investment in AI cloud quickcommerce their cloud intelligence revenue is actually accelerating 18% growth and the really crucial point AI related products have shown tripledigit growth for seven consecutive quarters
seven quarters wow yeah so it's this massive relatively stable platform that's aggressively monetizing AI that fits ARK's mandate perfectly okay so BA is the sort of scaled valueoriented AI bet in China what about BU BU how does that fit in? BU is positioned more as the pure AI and autonomy leadership play.
You know, generative AI, cloud services, and crucially autonomous driving through their Apollo Go platform. The Robbo taxes. Exactly. This is a direct bet on them successfully monetizing AI and diversifying. And historically, BU's shown strong earnings growth about 39.9% over the past year. But didn't you mention a uh a warning sign for BU earlier?
Something in the forecast? Yes, absolutely. And here's the key caveat kind of buried in the forecast. Analysts actually predict BU's earnings will decline. Decline? Yeah. By an average of 5.9% per year for the next three years. It signals heavy investment spending needed for AI development plus intense competition.
ARK is clearly willing to look past that near-term earnings pain, betting on long-term platform dominance in China. Okay, so tolerate the dip for the long-term position. But the China play isn't just the giants, right? They're also taking these extreme high growth bets like Pony AI, PO NY, right? Pony AI is way out on the risk spectrum.
It's an autonomous mobility company. Dual presence, US and China, robo taxes, robo trucks, high growth potential, aggressive forecast. Yeah. Revenue expected to grow rapidly. Uh 46.9% per year. Okay. And the risk profile, I'm guessing it's ARK like Oh, yeah. It's the extreme profile ARK often favors.
currently unprofitable naturally not forecast to become profitable in the next 3 years. Okay. And it has an extremely high price to sales ratio. PS is 88.4x 88 times sales. Just for context, the entire US software industry average PS is like 5.5x. Exactly. So ARK is essentially trading out of say a Roku facing headwinds for a pre-revenue company trading at a massive valuation based purely on future disruption potential.
That sums it up pretty well. It shows that extreme conviction in the disruptive path, valuing that potential future growth way above any current financial metric. That really sets the stage perfectly for the buy that caught the most attention this week. Figma, ticker Figgy. Ah, yes. Figma. I mean, this company's share price dropped over 52% since its IPO.
Had that huge almost 20% plunge recently after its first earnings report as a public company. And yet, ARK jumps in buying the dip. Why why leap into this high multiple saws name after such volatility? This is where you really see ARK's conviction in let's call it structural quality even when the market is delivering a massive valuation shock.
Okay, break down the bullcase the quality side, right? Figma is an AI powered collaborative design platform. Financially, it's basically a fortress. It just became profitable this year. TTM earnings around $104 million. And I saw something about its gross margin. It's exceptionally high. Exceptionally high is putting it mildly.
Gross margin is 90.77%. 90%. That's SAS royalty level. Seriously, most companies dream of margins like that. Plus, it's debtree. Short-term assets, $1.8 billion, far exceed liabilities. It's clean. Okay, so debtree, profitable, 90% gross margin business, financially pristine, but that stability runs head first into the bare case, right?
The valuation. That's why it drops so high. That's the collision, the price reality check. Current price is around what? $5521. Yeah, somewhere around there. Okay. But one discounted cash flow analysis we looked at estimates its intrinsic fair value is only 16 times in 39. $16. So it's trading at that implies it's overvalued by nearly 237% just using that specific DCF metric.
Wow. So you're saying it's like a sauce fortress built on maybe a mountain of air valuation wise and ARK just showed up with a big shovel. That feels like vintage ARK conviction. It really is. In compounding that valuation shock, its price to sales ratio is 30.3x, 30 times sales, which makes it dramatically more expensive than peers like HubSpot at 9.5x.
And remember, the industry averages around 5.5x. Furthermore, while revenue growth is forecast to be strong, about 18.5% per year, analysts predict earnings will decline. Decline even though it just became profitable. Yes. Decline by about 24.6% annually over the next 3 years. The market seems to be punishing them for the massive investment required to keep that growth engine running.
Okay, huge valuation, declining earnings forecast. And we have to talk about the insider signal, especially after mentioning it with Tempest AI. Who was selling Figma just before ARK started buying? Yeah, this is a really key detail for anyone looking at Figo. In the three months right before Ark's purchase, there was heavy insider selling.
Oh, venture capital firms Kleiner Perkins, Index Ventures, Greylock, and the CEO selling millions of shares. VCs and the CEO taking money off the table right before ARK buys in. It's the ultimate paradox, isn't it? A financially pristine company, 90% gross margins, debtfree, that is also wildly expensive, facing a forecast earnings decline, and seeing the early investors in the CEO cash out.
So, connecting this all together, looking at the trims and these big buys, what's the bigger picture lesson from ARK's moves this week? I think the lesson is clear. ARK fundamentally values technological disruption and that perceived platform quality like Figma's incredible gross margin often over things like clean balance sheets or traditional valuation metrics.
They're buying quality almost no matter the immediate price. Seems like it. And they're shedding specific kinds of risk. Whether it's the competitive saturation threat with Roku or the combination of high debt and insider selling we saw with Tempest AI. We've just dissected ARK's latest chess moves based on our sources.
The analysis shows this clear preference for high growth, often high-risisk assets, aligning with themes like autonomous tech and nextgen AI platforms. So, what does this all mean for you, the listener, the learner? ARK is clearly betting on two very different growth narratives here. Yeah. And maybe the ultimate question isn't just which stock you'd pick, but maybe it's whether ARK's willingness to buy an asset like Figma, just as VCs and the CEO are selling.
Is that genius level conviction or is it maybe structural arrogance? It's a tough call. It really makes you think. So for you listening, which ARK move resonates more today? Would you follow Alibaba's China rebound story fueled by AI and cloud dominance? Or would you lean towards Figma's extreme high multiple SAS growth story even with that near-term earnings decline forecast in the insider selling?
Let us know what you think in the comments. Definitely something to consider next time you're looking at insider trading data alongside valuations. Absolutely. Appreciate you tuning in. Until next time, stay sharp, stay patient, and let the market work for you.
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