저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 인플레이션이 일시적이지 않으며 금리가 오를 것이라고 본다. 인플레이션 판단: 임금은 한번 오르면 되돌리기 어렵고, 구리·목재·에너지·주택가격·비트코인 등 거의 모든 자산 가격이 상승 중이라고 주장한다. 팬데믹 이후 억눌렸던 소비심리와 트럼프·바이든 부양책, 완화적 연준이 한 시기에 겹쳤다는 점을 근거로 든다. 금리 전망: 연준이 금리를 올려야 한다고 확신하며, 정책 대응이 늦었다고 평가한다. 선제적 긴축이 더 나은 접근이라고 본다. 투자 전략 및 리스크: 가격전가력(pricing power)이 있고 금리 상승에도 기업가치가 크게 변하지 않는 기업을 보유해야 한다고 한다. 수익이 없고 먼 미래 현금흐름에 가치가 집중된 고성장 기술주는 금리 상승에 가장 취약하다고 경고한다. 주택시장: 밀레니얼 세대의 주택 구매 여력이 생겼고 저금리와 재택 선호로 주택 수요가 강하다고 본다. 하워드휴즈 코퍼레이션(마스터플랜 커뮤니티)의 콘도·토지 판매 호조를 언급하며, 텍사스·라스베이거스·하와이 중심 자산을 보유 중이라고 밝힌다. 출연자 전망: 애크먼 본인은 하워드휴즈 보유를 유지하며 주택 관련 강세를 전망한다.
다듬은 글
is going to be inflation i mean you don't say there's going to be there is inflation it's happening this way is that a debate between like business people who are experiencing rising prices and addressing it versus economists who are saying oh this is just temporary blips coming out of the pandemic i mean where where do you come down on that yeah i think it's not temporary uh first of all it's hard to roll back wages once you roll them up i mean you go from 15 to 12.
you know it's it so i would say we have a new baseline in terms of wages sort of generally you look at every commodity price right new copper lumber you know make your list look at what's going on in energy even before the colonial pipeline issue look at housing prices look at bitcoin right everything is inflating um and that's driven by we have kind of a once and a moment in history uh right you have people emerging from a pandemic with the animal spirits that come from being locked by beings right so that's dramatic you have you have uh all that hit you know the vaccine roll out actually in the u.s certainly it's been you know fantastic uh so you have a lot of people's feeling you know being fully vaccinated going back to their lives and then you have the trump stimulus the biden stimulus infrastructure an extremely accommodative you know federal reserve and everything concentrated in a couple of quarters so that the federal reserve too accommodated do you think i think they're gonna have to raise rates for sure and i think you know they adjusted their policy in my view just at the wrong time you know the a preemptive policy toward inflation uh i think is a better approach particularly in a world where we have uh you know massive massive uh stimulus economic stimulus is it too much stimulus i mean the cigar is i think with rates where they are it it will have there's a very good risk of the economy over here that's why i think rates go up and really the answer to the question the uh your viewer asked is you want to own businesses that have pricing power and you want to own businesses where the value of the business is not going to change dramatically if rates go up and so you know the risk to markets is you know what's interesting is you if you build a discounted cash flow you know analysis of a company and the business generates no profits for a decade and then you know grows very rapidly thereafter you know huge percentage of value the business is in if you will be the residual value of the company you know in your little dcf calculation small changes in the discount rate you use have a very big effect on the value of that kind of a company and so that's where the kind of high-flying you know highly valued technology companies that are not generating much in the way of earnings today you know those are i would say the biggest risk with respect to rate or rates rising uh and you want to own businesses that can uh you know raise prices to make up for their incremental input costs whether that's uh labor or or lumber okay thanks so and you're also exposed to the housing market which as you're saying is that's also seeming on fire i mean what's your outlook there for the house i think uh i think we've gotten to a point where the millennials can afford to buy a home uh we do have very very low interest rates uh and i think people after being stuck in a small apartment you know the notion of actually having your own space and having a lawn uh it's become a lot more appealing and uh i think you're seeing that in in housing you know we own a company called howard hughes corporation that owns these sort of small cities we call master plans communities and we've seen enormous companies just announced earnings yesterday you know dramatic dramatic increases in everything from condo sales in hawaii to lot sales and even the new york city real estate market is starting to boom again which is interesting but but the howard hughes are they focused more on the south and west and is that is that part of your bet there i mean i know you've learned you've owned them for a long time but you invested more right yeah so we we uh first of all they're the most the largest assets are in texas and las vegas and then hawaii and then maryland to a certain extent and you know hawaii is not a low-tax environment but it's in a world in which you know it sees the day life is too short uh it's a destination and a place where people are allowed a lot of a lot of california technology people who just moved to hawaii and said look i'm not moving back i can run my company virtually so i think the fact that you can run businesses virtually places like hawaii you're gonna be more appealing even though taxes are not low and
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