저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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결론: 채권·주식 모두 약세 전망, 금리 상승 국면 진입 중이며 S&P500 2138 종가 이탈 시 10~15% 조정 가능성. 연준 및 금리 전망 연준은 금리 동결했지만 매파적 문구 가능성, 장기 성장률 전망이 2.0%에서 1.8%로 하향됨. 시장 기대 기준 12월 금리 인상 확률은 약 50%, 원문 기준 워시(WIRP) 확률은 22% 수준이었음. 연준 내 반대표 3명은 연준이 결국 금리 인상을 해야 한다는 분위기를 보여줌. 글로벌 금리 흐름 일본 국채 10년물은 -30bp에서 음수 저위로, 독일 분트는 약 -0.23%에서 플러스 전환, 미 10년물은 7월 1.32%에서 1.65% 부근으로 상승. 재정 부양 전환 기대가 채권에 불리하게 작용하며 금리 저점은 이미 지나갔다고 판단. 주식 시장 전망 7월 말 '모두 매도(sell everything)'는 방어적 포지션 전환 의미였음. S&P500은 2180 부근 갭을 메울 가능성이 있으나 그 이후 하락 조정 가능성이 높다고 봄. 2138 종가 이탈 시 약 15% 하락 가능성을 언급. 이익 및 밸류에이션 2015~2016 이익 전망이 계속 하향 조정되었고, 2017~2018년 두 자릿수 이익 성장 전망은 비현실적이라고 비판. 저금리 기조가 PER을 떠받쳤으나 이 근거가 약화되는 중이라고 봄. 정책 및 선거 리스크 트럼프의 대선 승리 가능성과 주도권 확대에 따른 시장 변동성 확대를 우려. 섹터 및 포지션 소비재(임의소비재) 약세, 레스토랑·항공사·소매업체 공매도 포지션 보유 중이며 해당 종목들은 연초 대비 15~20% 하락. 리플레이션 거래(자원, 일부 금융)는 유지 가능성 언급, 고수익채(하이일드)는 금리 상승 시 불리하다고 경고. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기적 금리 상승과 주식 조정 우려, 채권 약세 지속 전망.
다듬은 글
that was Fed chair Janet Yellen today saying that the Federal Reserve is indeed worried about bubbles forming in the market still the US central bank left rates unchanged after today's meeting which came as no surprise for our next guest who said earlier this week that the Fed would deliver a hawkish no hikes Jeffrey gun lock a CEO and founder of DoubleLine Capital which is one hundred and five billion dollars under management he's known to many on Wall Street as the bond King he joins us now in an exclusive interview Jeffrey welcome to the show it's a pleasure to have you thanks Melissa greetings from this our debut performance for me anyway from the DoubleLine media studio Oh excellent it's looking good Jeffrey looking good yeah what do you make of what Janet Yellen said today has has much changed from 24 hours ago in your view not much has changed because as you correctly pointed out we saw this coming in terms of no hike with a little bit of a lean towards hawkish language I think one of the interesting things that happened unfortunately was the downgrade of long-term economic growth from what was already a downgraded level of 2% to 1.8 percent it's really getting kind of low in terms of the growth expectations you'll remember years ago every year they said it was gonna be 3% they've capitulated all the way down to 1.8 which is pretty much in line with what reality has been for the past six or seven years it's interesting today how the feds rhetoric and their economic projections and even their forward interest rate projections have gone down to a fully capitulated level of where the bond market pretty much saw it back in January of this year one of my webcast the January 8th one just markets which is up on replay at wnd.com we said the Fed would be forced this year to capitulate and meet the markets expectations in terms of future rate hikes down at the lower levels and that happened today so do you think that a Fed hike in December is all but a foregone conclusion I mean have the markets gone that part right or is the fact that the three dissents in the Fed is the highest level of dissension within the Federal Reserve since 2014 does that throw a wrench in that thinking that that December is on the table well I think the three dissenters reinforces the potential for December but I think December is huge who knows at this point you know just think of how many times and the magnitude at which the Fed guessing for today's move or non move changed over the past three months and here we've got three months which includes three Presidential Debates presidential election this is highly unknown what's going to happen in December and so I'm not surprised that the work function that shows the embedded probability of the Fed moving from the short end of the bond market is right about 50 percent because that's probably what the any rational person would put the odds at because there's too much wood to chop economically and politically between now in December but the Fed the three dissenters you know it shows that there is a growing mood at the Fed that at some point they have to follow through with these interest rate increases so some people thought the Fed might shock the market today no way with the work down at 22 the bond markets saying 22 percent probability that's just too frightening for the Fed to shock the market with that type of level I'll tell you what they'll Melissa if the work is in the 40s it doesn't have to be it's 70 like it used to be in the old days or 60 my guessing is even if the work is in the 40s the Fed will raise interest rates in December in fact they want the work to be in the mid 40s to raise interest rates in December because that's the only way that they can say you know what we're not just following the market we're not a machine we have a reason to exist we can raise interest rates when the bond market doesn't exactly give us permission to do that but with the work at 22 where it was today no chance they can deliver that kind of a shock work by the way for those at home who may not be familiar world interest rate probability index and some just say warp so what we expect between now and December then I mean if a one would think perhaps that there'd be a lot of fed speak coming out trying to get that warp reading a little bit higher so it could be more justified by December and does that then you'll volatility in the markets well I think there's gonna be volatility in the markets but I think many analysts have kind of gotten a Christic and they're thinking for years now we've had quantitative easing strange interest rate policies even negative interest rates in various places and I have the suspicion that that environment is not going to be with us forever that in fact it's already on the cusp of change and I think what the markets are going to need to digest isn't yet another three months of us guessing everyday what a speech from a Fed official means but rather understanding that there's a growing awareness in Europe and Japan and I think indeed in the United States that these policies have not generated the results that they were designed to generate yesterday people were saying watch out for the BOJ that's gonna be the big market mover and no one's even talking about that today they said they would but they aren't talking about it but something did interesting did happen at the BOJ and that is they sort of admitted that they're not getting the results that they're hoping for from negative interest rates and indeed they might want to steepen out their yield curve and get to positive interest rates interest rates have already bottomed on a global basis back in july the japanese jgb the ten-year was at negative 30 basis points it's now negative low single digits the German bund actually yields one tenth of one basis point positive having been negative twenty three or so so the u.s.
ten-year was down at 132 July sixth and it got up to above one point seven it's at one point six five now rates have already risen by 20 or 30 basis points on a global basis and the reason I think Melissa is the bond market is sniffing out a pivot to fiscal stimulus which is now being talked about much more than it was even two weeks ago let alone a year ago and fiscal stimulus I think changes the game I think that you get a different kind of a mentality about policy and interest rates and I think interest rates bottom two United States in a secular basis way back in July of 2012 but on a short-term basis with the ten-year pushing to a minor new law on July 6 I think we've seen the bottom and interest rates for this year anyway and maybe for this cycle because a pivot to fiscal stimulus is fundamentally bond unfriendly and I do want to get your thoughts Jeffrey on what you think of the candidate infrastructure plans but I want to also get your call on the markets more broadly you made some excellent spot on market calls recently for instance at the end of July you came out and boldly said to sell everything the markets haven't really SP that is hasn't really gone very far from there so what do you anticipate now now that now that the environment has in fact changed here well I think that the markets have been delicately balanced on the concept of low interest rates forever I heard people saying in July that interest rates can never rise I met this game a long time and I've learned that when you hear the word never it means it's about to happen so with all the markets balanced on zero interest rates are very very low interest rates the interest rates rising will cause downside volatility so that was kind of the impetus between behind that statement sell everything which of course is a code word for saying get defensive you know reduce your duration in bond portfolios upgrade your credit quality put lessen to risk assets and it's right that the S&P is a little bit lower now than it was then it hasn't made any progress since then there's a gap in the SP from that day let that to Friday a few weeks ago when a Fed officials said they've been raised rates twice this year there's a gap in the S&P up to around twenty one eighty or so I suspect the SP will find its way back to fill that gap markets almost always fill gaps and I think that's a great selling opportunity I think interest rates are headed higher I think the tenure will make it up into the low twos before your end and therefore I think the markets balanced on forever you know one and a half or lower ten years are balancing on an unsteady ground and so I'm looking for downside volatility to develop also I think that relates to the election it seems clear that mr.
Trump has momentum you know that I've been saying all year the Trump was going to be our next president even when he was an asterisk even just the Republican race and he seems to have momentum now and if he goes ahead and he certainly has a monumental opportunity on Monday to really gain further momentum also I would acknowledge he has the opportunity to blow himself up on Monday but if he does a good performance I think he's going to pull ahead in the polls in a kind of definitive way which will not be greeted with open arms from the mainstream media which likes to run negative articles on mr.
Trump virtually every single day and so they don't want him to win and so there's all kinds of stories and it leads it leads to kind of a fear concept of the world's gonna come to an end because Trump might win I could see that hang to downside volatility as well okay so there's some market thinkers out there that that believe that prices particularly equity markets have been pumped up by the Fed a certain percentage a certain percentage is embedded in the market simply because of the Fed's QE program in that when the Fed stops were just basically now that is going to unwind are you in that camp that a certain percentage in the markets has to come off because the Fed is pulling back sort of I I agree with kind of broadly with that line of thinking but QE ended a while ago I mean Cuba QE ended at the end of 2014 and so well it was interesting well the most incredible charts if you run it for the past decade is the relationship of the S&P 500 and the size of the Fed's balance sheet which grows because of QE so when they were doing QE you had huge gains in the sp500 correlated with the growth of the Fed's balance sheet from the beginning of kiwi and there were it was on and off again but from the beginning of QE and o9 to the end of q if you have 2014 the S&P 500 advanced by 17% per annum that's when QE was happening when they stopped QE to have 2014 since then there's been very little progress sp5 hunters probably done about 3 percent per annum so QE has been replaced with native interest rates in other countries and some QE in other countries but Hugh stopped the United States I do think that the p/e ratio of the stock market should be high as long as interest rates are very low but interest rates have started to rise so that should put some pressure on the p/e ratio and also profits have been really disappointing versus forecasts for about seven years in a row now every year forecasters the consensus entering the year is earnings are gonna grow from 10 to 12% and instead they come in at 5% and that was five years ago in four years ago and three years ago all of them 5% and then they come in at negative for 2015 and they're not looking all that spiffy for 2016 but lo and behold the forecast is for double-digit earnings growth in 2017 and double-digit earnings growth still in 2018 really kind of heroically ignoring what's been happening and wage increases do not help profitability so absent growth the nominal GDP so it seems to me that there's a reason for the p/e to be rather high but those reasons are starting to erode and therefore I I do think that there's a certain percentage not so much based on QE which is I ended but based upon low interest rates and zero interest rate policies which seem to be in the process of perhaps being reversed as we look forward to it being replaced by fiscal stimulus as we look forward maybe nine months to a year and so I think that percentage that the market might be too high by you know it could be 10 15 percent and you would anticipate that coming out I think so I really think that the the rounding top pattern and the SMP that was punctuated with a sharp gap to the downside is a negative I would become particularly negative and then I would be looking for a 15 percent drop if we put a couple of closes in below 2138 on the S&P 500 that's a very specific number but it has to do with what I think was 21 32 actually 232 was the high close but before the the minor new high that we saw in recent months that was the the high close you know several quarters ago and when you go to a minor new high and then you reverse it it's in essence is the rejection of the new high that's what happened to the 10 year by analogy here in July into September the 10 year was a 138 low back in 2012 it pushed down to 132 so a minor new low yield but then very quickly was back above 138 and even back above 160 that's what you call a rejection of a of a exhaustion move in a market or a throw over in very jargony technical terms if we if we put in two closes below 21:32 on the sp500 particularly if we accelerate then I think we are in the teeth of a correction looking for about a 15% down move so I've been playing risk assets the sp500 type of assets all year on the short side and a macro fund that I run and we're up massively in that funder today even though we're on the short side because this market has lots of momentum things going on but it also has pockets that are really weak and most those pockets that are weak have to do with consumer discretionary and I think consumer discretionary is a place that one should be short and I've been making money on the short side and names that went up massively in recent years but the consumer discretionary story is a bad story right now such as and you remain short those names yeah I don't like talking about individual names I'm short but I've been short some restaurants I've been short some airlines I've been short some retailers and basically most of these stocks are down 15 to 20 percent year-to-date Jeffrey thanks so much for joining us we do appreciate your time Thank You Melissa it's good to be here good luck Jeffrey gun lock of DoubleLine capital coming to us from their brand spanking new studio here so a lot to unpack here in terms of direction of the markets which we could see a ten to fifteen percent correction shorts that he has on currently what's it at tea well listen he talked about 10 to 15 percent Corrections the last time it happened at the end of QE late 2014 like you said and then also at the end of the zero interest rate policy which happened last December so if he is correct that by the end of the year we have the 10-year yield at 2.2 percent that's where it was last December when they had their first rate increase in nine years then there is a very good likelihood if people start pricing in a higher Fed fund rate somewhere near 1% the first half of 2017 then you have a 10 to 15 percent correction like he's talking about he was clear on two things one reflation trade is what you still want to be in and I still think that that works with resources some of the rails some of the young markets he also said the rates higher and he said this before is not good for credit and so if you look at high-yield and we've had this conversation on the desk before be careful on that but the 21:32 number very interesting I'm sure a lot of people being over that one because I think it's an important technical all right common top hedge font Italian Cooperman charged by the SEC for insider trading and a top attorney says the case is strong very strong he'll be here to explain why plus Nikolas shares down after a new report that says subscriber growth is shrinking but could original content save the company we will explain a much more fast rate of
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