저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금리 인상 기대와 재정부양 전환을 근거로 1~3개월 내 채권·주식 전반에 방어적 입장을 유지하며, 특히 소비재 일부는 숏 관점이다. 연준 전망: 12월 금리 인상 가능성은 약 2/3로 보고 있으며, 옐런 발언은 고압경제(high pressure economy) 언급으로 인상 폭은 크지 않을 것으로 해석한다. 채권시장: 7월 6일 이후 약세이며 미 국채 대부분 만기 수익률이 200일 이동평균 이상이다. 금리는 약 50bp 상승했고 미국 외 주요국도 30~40bp 올랐다. 최근 3개월 선진국 채권 총수익은 대부분 마이너스다. 주식·포지션: S&P500은 2180이 목표였던 갭 구간을 과거 2279.99 부근까지 도달한 것으로 언급했다. 현재 2130 부근에서 공방 중이며, 2130 아래에서 두 번 마감하면 더 강한 하락 관점으로 전환한다. 본인 매크로 펀드는 올해 내내 숏이며 큰 수익을 냈다고 밝혔다. 소비재: 임대료 등 물가 상승으로 중위 미국인의 재량소득이 줄어드는 영역은 투자 회피 또는 숏 대상으로 보고 있으며 이 테마가 계속될 것으로 본다. 재정부양: 채권시장이 재정부양을 선반영하는 중이며, 재정부양 언급이 1년 전 거의 0에서 2008~09년보다 높아졌다고 했다. 재정부양은 채권에 비우호적이다. 금리 전망: 금리가 영구 0% 유지된다는 주장은 틀렸고 금리는 이미 바닥을 형성 중이라고 본다. 독일 10년물 금리도 마이너스가 아니며 마이너스 금리 시대는 끝나가고 가파른 수익률곡선이 올 것으로 본다. 대선: 승자와 무관하게 재정부양 체제로 간다고 보며 트럼프가 클린턴보다 더 많이 할 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to a special halftime report. We are joined now by the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, Jeffrey Gundlach. Jeff, welcome. It's good to talk to you today.
Hey Scott, congratulations on five years. Not a lot of shows make it that far. It's been great having people like you on, maybe that's why we're here today, because of that very fact.
Stan Fischer is speaking today, and I know you made some comments about how you saw the Yellen speech on Friday. So where is the Fed in your mind today, and what are they going to do between now and the end of the year, if anything?
Well, they certainly want to raise rates in December. At least a majority of Fed members want to raise rates in December. When you look at the shape of the yield curve and use the CME FedWatch function, it gives a probability of about two-thirds right now. But Janet Yellen last week on Friday gave some important information. She was kind of moving the goalpost on the unemployment rate when she talked about running a high-pressure economy. There was a paper written by the Brookings Institution back in 1973 that used the phrase "high-pressure economy," and they talked about an unemployment rate of 4% in reference to a high-pressure economy. So it seems to me that Janet Yellen doesn't really want to raise rates, at least not very much. But it does seem like they want to raise rates in December.
The bond market has certainly been weak since July 6th in particular, and a few weeks after that, with interest rates having risen by 50 basis points, pretty much every maturity in the US Treasury bond market has a yield at or above its 200-day moving average. So it seems to me something is going on in the bond market, and that's why I turned negative on most assets during July. Frankly, that's been the right position to be in ever since.
You're negative on bonds. You would be short bonds, you would be short stocks as well?
I don't know about shorting bonds. I would just be defensive in general. I think investors should be in a defensive position, and frankly, defensive positioning has been working ever since July. Interest rates are up by about 50 basis points, and not just in the United States. They're also up 30 or 40 basis points in many other developed countries. Almost all developed-market bonds have been negative over the last three months in terms of total return.
The last time I was on CNBC, we talked about the 2180 level on the S&P 500, and we thought it would go back up there because there was a gap there. Almost miraculously, it went to 2179.99. So let's call that 2180. Now we're looking carefully at the level we're at right now, which is around 2130 on the S&P 500. There seems to be a sort of battle royale going on, with the market dipping below 2130 but unable to close below that level. I would turn particularly negative if the S&P closed twice below 2130. We're fighting that war right now between the bulls and the bears.
In my macro fund, which trades things like stocks and commodities exclusively, I've been short all year. I'm up tremendously by being short, even though the market has been up a little, let's call it broadly sideways. Certain consumer discretionary areas are what I've been focusing on as areas to not be invested in or to be shorting. That's because of rising inflation from things like rent, where there's less discretionary income for the median American. I think that's going to be a continuing theme.
What's coming up next, Scott, and this is why I turned negative in July, is that the bond market seems to be sniffing out fiscal stimulus. You mentioned Stanley Fischer, and he talked about that just today. It's funny to look at media mentions of the phrase "fiscal stimulus." A year ago there were literally zero, and now the number you see on the things that track these things is higher than it was even in '08 and '09. So I think fiscal stimulus is coming, and it's fundamentally bond-unfriendly.
This idea that interest rates are going to stay at zero forever became popular in July. From my years of experience in this business, when you hear words like "forever," or phrases like "something can never happen," as in "interest rates can never rise," it means it's about to happen, and it's already happening. I continue to see stubbornness among analysts saying interest rates will stay low forever. I saw an article today where someone said interest rates will be the same for the next five years, and I think that's horrifically wrong. I think interest rates have been putting in a bottom for some time.
Part of the difficulty in the environment we're in, Jeffrey, is the election and the uncertainty, as we've said, not only at the top of the ticket but downstream, and the investment implications all of that could have. How are you positioning with all that in mind?
I actually don't think the election outcome is all that important, because I think both candidates will be caught up in this trend of fiscal stimulus and supporting it. So I really think the bond market is saying we are headed to a fiscal stimulus pivot. What's also important is in Europe, Germany most noticeably. Their 10-year bond yield, the Bund, isn't negative anymore, and I think the days of negative interest rates are numbered and steeper yield curves are in our future. Strangely, because there's so much talk about the election, I really don't think it matters that much. I think we're headed to a fiscal stimulus regime regardless of who wins. I think Trump would do more of it than Mrs. Clinton, but either way you're heading in that direction.
Jeffrey, unfortunately we have to leave it there, but I look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thank you for being on this program so often over the past five years. It's been great to have your insight and really get your point of view.
It's a pleasure, Scott. It's always a joy being interviewed by you. You do a great job. Congratulations again.
I appreciate that very much. Jeffrey Gundlach, we'll be back in two minutes.
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