저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼이 연례서한에서 재정적자 지속, 그린전환·재무장·공급망 재편 등으로 인플레이션이 재가속할 위험을 경고. 시장이 연착륙 확률을 70~80%로 반영하지만 자신은 그 절반 수준으로 본다고 주장. 우크라이나·중동 분쟁과 미중 경제 갈등이 공급 측면 인플레를 키울 수 있으며, 금리 인하 여력이 제한될 것이라고 봄. S&P500 급등과 신용스프레드 축소로 투자자 낙관이 과하다고 경고.
다듬은 글
Jamie Diamond the CEO of JP Morgan Chase is widely recognized as one of the most respected Bankers in history and while I typically delve into the minds of the world's top investors there's no denying that when it comes to the global economy Diamond's unique position often affords him incredible insight into the current state of affairs worldwide he's involved in everything happening here and abroad they have over 60 million clients and employ over 300,000 people worldwide they have business in the Middle East and China and are heavily involved of course in politics in Washington so it's fair to say that jimie as CEO of JP Morgan has a pretty good view of the economy which makes it a bit worrisome when he releases his annual letter and basically says he's super concerned about everything but in this video we're going a bit beyond his pure alarmist video on YouTube and we're going to closely analyze his recent letter to understand exactly why Diamond believes this may be the most critical period the world has witnessed in decades and it starts with Jim's overview of the situation within the borders of the US it's important to note that the economy is being driven by large amounts of government spending and past stimulus there's also a growing need to increase spending as we continue to transition to a Greener economy restructuring Global Supply chains increasing military spending and combating Rising health care costs this could lead to more persistent inflation and higher rates than markets expect as I've discussed on the channel before the US government has been operating with deficits every year since 2002 now at a basic level this means the government spends more than it earns which is acceptable in the short term because the US Federal Reserve the FED has the ability to print money and buy government bonds to effectively lend this new money to the government the problem is that this action is inflationary increasing the money supply is an inflationary force and the issue is that over the past 20 years the US government has been diving deeper and deeper into deficit which now makes them need to borrow more and more money each year just to try to fund their lifestyle now the Federal Reserve isn't the only player lending money to the government for example investors and even foreign Nations also do but there are concerns at the moment that if these buyers pull back the us will have no choice but for the FED to print more and more money to quench the government's thirst for money which would likely cause more inflation the other alternative is for the US to cut spending but Diamond notes that this is rather unlikely mentioning that in addition to their daily spending they also need to channel money into the new green economy restructuring Global Supply chains through things like the chips act boosting their military power and funding their healthare system many key economic indicators today remain good and possibly improving including inflation but looking into the future we must consider conditions that will affect the future for example there seem to be a large number of persistent inflationary pressures that are likely to continue all of the following factors appear to be inflationary ongoing fiscal spending remilitarization of the world restructuring of global trade Capital needs of the new green economy and possibly higher energy costs in the future due to lack of necessary investment in energy infrastructure so even before we look outside the US borders there are very complicated situations forming the biggest of which is probably this need to spend money on top of an already painful deficit but inflation is still not fully under control and is indeed at risk of rising again and that leads Jam to sound the alarm especially for investors out there who are mostly getting a bit too optimistic with the snp500 rising an impressive 22% in the last year alone Equity values by many measures are at the upper end of the valuation range and credit spreads are extremely tight markets seem to be pricing in a 70 to 80% chance of a soft Landing moderate growth along with declining inflation and interest rates I believe the odds are much lower than that a soft Landing is simply the idea that after the big inflation surge the US experienced in 2021 and the first half of 2022 interest rate hikes will be able to slow down the economy reduce inflation but won't cause a recession and so far as Diamond notes the market is really betting on this situation occurring and there are some indicators that this scenario is becoming reality interest rates have been raised and inflation has dropped significantly but the unemployment rate remains low and consumers are still spending but jimie suggests that the economy will experience a soft Landing with a much lower probability than the 70 to 80% that investors are betting on this is him explaining exactly this issue in a recent interview I think there are things out there that are somewhat concerning that we're keeping an eye on and why are we doing so well a lot of it is fiscal spending and fiscal spending also has a multiplier so I just think may not come down as quickly and people may be surprised so when people talk about the market kind of pricing in a soft Landing that may well happen but you know the chances of 70 or 80% I would give half of that that's it and while there are many factors within the US borders that give Diamond reason to believe that a soft Landing has a much lower probability than the 70 to 80% probability expected by the market upon reading his annual letter it became clear that the main reason he gives a much lower probability of inflation and being able to reduce interest rates is actually because of what's happening when you look outside the US borders sure maybe data from the US suggest everyone's fine but diamond is particularly concerned that the geopolitical landscape of the world as we see it today could have a decent impact on the US economy worldwide 2023 was yet another year of significant challenges from the terrible Wars and ongoing violence in the Middle East and Ukraine to the growing terrorist activity and geopolitical tensions especially with China the ongoing Wars in Ukraine in the Middle East continue to have the potential to disrupt energy and Food Markets migration and Military and economic relationships besides the terrible human cost these significant and somewhat unprecedented forces make us remain cautious and that's jimie very eloquently saying that conflicts among other nations both militarily and economically May well play a significant role in future inflation which may actually dictate what the US needs to do with its interest rates take the case study of Russia's invasion of Ukraine both Russia and Ukraine are major Global suppliers of agricultural products like wheat corn barley and sunflower oil when the conflict began it restricted access to these Commodities leading to scarcity and higher prices globally Russia is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas The Invasion along with subsequent sanctions imposed by Western countries and other geopolitical responses severely disrupted glob glob energy markets we know that European countries heavily dependent on Russian gas faced huge challenges leading to a significant increase in Energy prices and that's just the beginning you have attacks in the Red Sea causing the rerouting of cargo ships the Middle East which is a major Global oil supplier is obviously in Conflict China and the US are waging an economic battle Jim's point is that these external factors can also have massive impacts on inflation in the United States while messing with the money supply and raising and lowering interest rates can affect the demand side of the inflation equation what's happening around the world can and indeed does affect the supply side of the equation Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent appalling attack on Israel and ongoing violence in the Middle East should have undone many assumptions about the direction of future security and stability bringing us to this crucial moment in history America and the free western world can no longer maintain a false sense of security based on the illus that dictatorships and oppressive Nations will not use their economic and Military powers to advance their goals particularly against what they perceive as weak incompetent and disorganized Western democracies in a turbulent world we are reminded that National Security is and always will be Paramount even if its importance seems to diminish in quiet times the impacts of these geopolitical and economic forces are large and somewhat unprecedented they may not be fully understood until they unfold fully over several years and while many May argue that Jamie Diamond is just a very wealthy Banker trying to create a bit of fomo fear of missing out to get more business for his company it's hard to ignore the fact that what he's saying has a certain degree of logic and reason behind it so for all the investors out there maybe it's time to take a look at your portfolio and ask yourself if you're really prepared for everything the future holds
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