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Ray Dalio, Ray Dalio, Ray Dalio Japanese bonds for the sharp sell-off in the bond market. Boyd of recession. Global financial crisis. And you're going to panic. Um, yes, we're past the point of no return. That's what the man who saw 2008 coming says. Three months later, it looks as if the market has listened to him.
Three things have happened since then. America is borrowing money at rates as high as they were a year before the financial crisis. The American central bank raised interest rates in the middle of the war, shortly before a midterm election, against the express will of the president. And the Finance Ministry is buying back its own debt securities.
Imagine you borrow money to buy your own debts because nobody else wants them. Exactly. In between, Ray Dalio mentions a date: In three years, give or take two. This refers to a debt crisis in the world's largest economy. He describes what that means as follows: bonds that nobody wants anymore. A state that forces its citizens to buy them anyway.
And a sentence about his own grandchildren: They will pay off these debts in devalued dollars. If he's right, it won't affect Washington. It affects your global ETF, which is mostly American. It affects the interest rate on your house, which has risen more sharply since spring than it has in over ten years.
And it affects Germany, which will likely double its interest payments by 2030 . And if he's wrong, then the man who saw 2008 coming has just given away the appointment of his life. Both are a story. I'll tell you which one I believe at the end. Welcome to my desk. I worked as a consultant for ten years , including at banks.
Today I'm checking an appointment. This is the continuation of my episode about Ray Dalio from August. 200,000 of you watched it, and it ended with a question for you. The answer will come today. You don't need to have seen her for that. Three terms are sufficient for this episode. The deadline is three years, give or take two.
The traffic light, three displays from which Dalio reads his appointment . And which I'm reading up on today. Red, yellow, or green. And the repression, what comes after Dalio when the traffic light turns red, and what Europe has already rehearsed. In the end, you know which indicator is red, who contradicts Dalio, and what to do with an appointment that even the man who mentioned it says he will be wrong .
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2 minutes with a beer mat. Imagine a pub . You order a beer, the landlord makes a mark on a lid and you have a beer. He has a credit balance, and nobody has touched the money. That's credit. The entire financial system is like a very large beer mat, and with it an economy can drink more than it pays for quite some time.
But there's one thing you mustn't forget, and remember this saying: The innkeeper's credit is worth exactly as much as you can pay in the end, no more. Dalio's second thought: This has already happened ten times in 500 years. Dutch, British, Americans, it's always the same story. A country becomes rich, suffers and suffers, until the interest eats up the income.
And in the end, Dalio says, everyone prints, meaning print money. Dalio published a text on August 21st . Headline: How states go bankrupt. The mechanics behind what is happening right now. And he doesn't calculate in trillions, he calculates in families. Imagine your family has $240,000 in debt and your household spends 40% more each year than it earns.
This is what America looks like when you shrink it down to a family right now. Then the sentence, which I read in its entirety because half of it is missing from every headline . My estimate, which is probably wrong, is in 3 years, plus or minus 2, if the exchange rate doesn't change . That's what Dalio says.
Now you might be thinking 3 years plus or minus 2, you ca n't go wrong with that. Why does he mention a date and then say in the same sentence that it's incorrect? Yes, because it's not a date, but a reading. Dalio has three ads that he has been observing for decades and has kept to himself until now.
Ad one: How much of what the state takes in goes toward interest payments? Ad two: Do people still want to buy his promissory notes? Ad three: Does the central bank have to print money to buy them because otherwise no one wants them? If all three are red, a heart attack will occur. And I'm reading them now, one after the other.
The first one was already red in August. Chapter two: Ad one, the plaque. Dalio has a metaphor for the first ad, and the image [ahem] is better than any number. Plaque, the stuff that builds up in an artery. Year after year until the blood can no longer get through. A state is a cycle as long as credit flows into things that will later generate more income.
Streets, schools, factories – it's healthy, just as sport strengthens the heart. If it is invested in things that yield no return, only the interest remains. And it accumulates, a little more each year in the same spot, until it displaces everything else . That's what it looks like in America. Today, more than one in five of every dollar that Washington earns goes to creditors before a single pensioner or soldier is paid.
The interest now costs more than the entire military, all aircraft carriers, all bases in 70 countries combined, cheaper than yesterday's debts. And now the part that almost every headline omits and that you know from your own mailbox. Anyone who has financed a house is familiar with the letter from the bank: "Your fixed interest rate period is expiring.
The old loan was cheap, the new one costs today's interest rate. The monthly payment will increase for the same apartment." The American government receives exactly this letter every year for a quarter of its debt. Old banknotes (1-2%) are being phased out and new ones (5%) are being issued. The burden doesn't grow because new debts are added.
It grows automatically because old debts become more expensive when exchanged . Nobody has to decide anything about it. Now you might think, well, then we just have to cut it down. Dalio's answer here is that there's almost nothing to cut because almost everything is bound. Pensions, health, military, interest rates.
Display 1, red. And Dalio describes it this way: that alone is not yet a heart attack. The debt can grow for decades as long as someone buys the promissory notes. The second ad asks exactly that: who is still buying? And in August, someone responded who actually wanted to achieve the opposite. Chapter 3, Ad 2.
Who else is buying? The US Treasury Department will send out a notification in August. It will buy back its own long-term debt , twice as many as before. That sounds like strength, like a corporation buying back its own shares because it doesn't know what to do with the money. Yes, quite the opposite is true.
The ministry has no money left. It borrows the money for the repurchase with new short promissory notes. Imagine paying off your credit card with another credit card and calling that debt reduction. A fund manager summed it up in one sentence on CNBC. The central bank can print money and buy whatever it wants.
The Ministry of Finance cannot do that. The stack remains the same height. It only becomes shorter, and borrowing for a short time means it will soon be borrowed again, at whatever interest rate. And then, on day 1, the interest rate falls. Day 2, it's rising again. Day 3, it rises higher than before the announcement.
Two days, that was the entire effect. Dalio writes two days later that in the final phase, a state only borrows for short periods because nobody wants to borrow for long periods anymore. For him, the buyback is not a remedy, it is a symptom. And the buyer, Japan, America's largest foreign creditor, spent more dollars in August than ever before in a single month to save its own currency, selling American debt securities in the process.
The world's central banks hold the fewest American bonds since 2012 . Not out of mistrust, but because they need the dollar to pay for oil. But at that price, it doesn't matter why it's being sold. When everyone at the flea market wants to get rid of their bicycle at the same time, nobody asks why. Advertisement 2: The largest creditor sells, the ministry buys its own notes, and yet the interest rate still rises .
That's not red. When Washington auctions off new debt securities , they still find buyers. The world needs these documents as security for almost everything. But it's no longer green, it's yellow. If the third advertisement remains, the central bank prints. She responded on September 16th , not in the way the president wanted, but exactly as Dalio had demanded.
Chapter 4, Ad 3, the trap. In the week before the meeting, the president, vice president and his economic advisor publicly demanded that the central bank cut rates. The consultant called the people on the interest rate committee clowns. On the other side, the man whom the president had personally appointed to this position.
And Dalio, who had already advised him in April, said he certainly wouldn't lower interest rates now. The Fed would lose its credibility , especially now. On Wednesday, September 16, the central bank unanimously raises rates for the first time in three years in the midst of war, seven weeks before the election.
The president said that same evening that interest rates should be 1% or less. Because we are the best debtor in the world. Ad three. Is the central bank printing money? No, she is doing the opposite, against the president. Green, exactly what Dalio demanded. Red, yellow, green. If that were the whole story, we could stop here.
[clears throat] But she isn't. What happens after the increase? The long-term interest rate on which your home loan depends is not decreasing. It's rising to its highest level since 2007. And that's the trap. Imagine the central bank as a doctor. If she lowers interest rates as the president wants, nobody will believe you anymore.
And long-term interest rates are rising because nobody trusts a doctor who lets the president dictate the diagnosis. If it is increased, as Dalio wants, each new promissory note will cost more. And the plague from ad one is growing faster. The interest rate set by the central bank is the short-term rate.
The interest rate that kills the state is the long one. And the tall one isn't listening to anyone anymore. Even someone sitting 10,000 km away understood that. On the day of the interest rate hike, the president of the Iranian parliament posted that a quarter point increase would not open a strait.
The risk premium is not set by the Fed, we set it. And he's not entirely wrong. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since spring, and the second strait in the Red Sea has also been closed since September. Oil costs over $100. Diesel fuel in America and Germany is more expensive than ever before. And diesel is in everything: in trucks, tractors, and supermarket shelves.
War drives up the price of oil, the price of oil drives up inflation, inflation drives up the central bank, the central bank drives up the interest rate on debt. Everything ends up in ad one. And for what comes after red, Dalio has a word from the 1930s. It sounds less harmful than it is. A quick note: if you find this work helpful, please subscribe and leave a comment.
The algorithm takes both into account. Back to the topic. Chapter five, the repression and what it has to do with you. The word is cumbersome, but the matter is simple. A state that can no longer afford its interest payments has two options. He either pays them or he makes sure he doesn't have to pay them.
The second path is called repression and it takes place in four steps. First, the central bank and the finance ministry artificially keep interest rates below inflation. Your savings account yields less than prices rise. Secondly, higher taxes. Thirdly, capital controls. You can leave, your money stays.
Fourthly, in Dalio's words, this is the phase in which gold was banned. And then his postscript, I'm not saying we'll go that far, but now you're probably thinking this is history from another century. Yes, from the last one in America. After World War II, the American central bank capped interest rates for almost ten years, while prices rose by as much as 20% per year at times .
Those who lent money to the state at that time lost a portion of it every year, without any change in the account balance. The silent tax. And the gold ban is not a legend. In 1933, all Americans had to surrender their gold to the government. Up to ten years in prison. Ten months later, the same president raised the price of gold by two-thirds.
The state bought its own people at the old price and revalued them at the new one. And now Berlin, because the same calculation is being made here as well. With smaller numbers and a ten-year delay. Germany is doubling its interest spending by 2030, and this is the finance minister's plan, not a warning from outside.
The reason is the same letter from Chapter 2. Old bonds from the zero-interest-rate years are maturing and will be reissued at today's interest rate. Germany is not facing a heart attack, but the direction is the same and it will reach you before it reaches your household. Because the interest rate on your house depends on the federal bond.
Ten years of home financing now cost more than it has in over ten years. For a loan of 300,000 euros, that's about 200 euros more per month for 10 years, for the same apartment. Not because Frankfurt decided something, but because the world interest rate is set in Washington. Now you think, then Dalio is right and I should act.
Before you do that , I must show you who contradicts him, and I will do so with his own instruments. Chapter 6, the objection. Three objections, each with a counter-argument in 2 minutes. First, his balance sheet. Dalio has already mentioned a date. In 1982, at age 33, he told Congress that a depression was coming.
Instead, one of the longest economic booms in American history began, and Dalio had to borrow money from his father to pay his bills. Then, in 2015, 2016, 2018, 2022, 2023, each time a crisis was predicted that never came. Counter-argument: he made a hit in 2008, and probably missed the mark, he adds this time .
That's honest. He makes the appointment, but also makes himself unassailable. Secondly, the market contradicts him with its own instruments. Dalio has explained how to recognize the crisis. Long-term interest rates are running out, the dollar is falling, gold is rising. Let's take a look. The premium for long-term loans has been falling since the summer.
The dollar is getting stronger. Gold lost value in the week of the interest rate hike . Anyone claiming a buyer strike should be able to prove it with these figures . He can't. Not yet . Counter-argument: Dalio is not saying that the crisis is here. He says she'll come in one to five years. The question is whether the central bank has switched off the alarm or merely postponed it.
Thirdly: The man. Dalio no longer manages client funds. He sold his last shares in his company in 2025. He sells books and recommends gold. That he also holds up. This is not a criticism. It's a point of interest that needs to be made public. Dalio is the doctor who predicts a heart attack for every patient.
Eventually, he'll be right. That's statistics. The question is not whether he is right. The question is whether you structure your life around his calendar. And there is an answer to that, which does not come from me. It comes from Dalio and from you. Chapter 7: Your second cave. "A clever rabbit has three dens," says Dalio.
I asked you if you had a second cave and where it was located. Here are your answers and Dalio's rules for it. Sweden: In the basement, Bitcoin and gold. China: My wife is Chinese. Turkey: 20 years of tax exemption. And the most frequent objection, which never actually occurs: real estate, concrete gold.
First: Where to? Dalio's criterion: places where capital formation, decency, and new beginnings come together. Sweden, yes. China already has capital controls in place. A cave from which you can't get any money out . This is a trap with two entrances. Secondly: Concrete gold. Dalio's comment on this: Wealth is not money.
You have to sell a house first, and it's precisely when everyone has to sell at the same time that it's worth the least. A house protects against inflation, not against a letter from the bank. Thirdly: What goes in it? In March, Dalio wrote down how he manages his own money, in three sentences. Cash is safe from default but vulnerable to inflation.
Greetings from the savings account of 22 . Almost nobody can time the market , so don't try and diversify. Not everything in one currency, not everything in one country, and not everything in one asset class. The world ETF, which is mostly American, is one shell, not three. In addition, 10 to 15% hard cash that no one can print.
He mainly invests in gold, and a little bit in Bitcoin. His objection to Bitcoin is not the price, but rather that what a state can see, it can also tax and, in a worst-case scenario, freeze. He can't do that with gold in a safe . That's why central banks buy gold and not Bitcoin. And what do I do with that?
How many months can I make ends meet if no money comes in in the morning ? Yes, and since I started doing YouTube , it hasn't been very much. This number is your security. Everything else is profit. And then, of course, I hold more than one currency. I have hard cash as insurance, not as gambling or betting, and I'm not basing anything on the date because, as he describes everything, the date is probably wrong.
And because dispersion also works when he is right. Week 7 of 156. Dalio's appointment has been running since August 21st. If we give him the middle three years, today is week 7 of 156. Three indicators: interest rates in red, buyers in yellow, the central bank in green. And with each increase, it feeds the first display.
I said at the beginning that I would tell you which story I believe. Here she is. Dalio has the mechanism right. Interest paid with new debt grows on its own. This is arithmetic, not a prediction. He doesn't have that appointment, nobody does. And he describes it exactly like that. What you can do: read the ads.
The next meter reading will be on October 28th. The central bank will decide again. November 3rd. America votes midterms. Question for you in the comments: which of the three ads would you watch first, and who is right, Dalio or his list of incorrect predictions? I read everything as usual. That's all for today from my desk. Take care and bye.
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