저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴·크라우드스트라이크 실적은 상회했으나 이란 이슈와 고유가 속 기대치 부담으로 주가 하락. 브로드컴 AI 매출 143% 증가 등 실적은 양호. 시장은 강한 상승 후 2~3% 조정이 필요하다고 봄. 금은 지지선 부근에서 단기 반등 노려 단기 콜 진입, 리게티(RGTI)는 박스권 하단에서 매수 관망, 엔비디아는 비중 축소 후 214.75 이탈 시 청산 계획.
다듬은 글
Today after the close, Broadcom and CrowdStrike both beat their numbers pretty nicely, showing us that AI and cyber spending is still going pretty strong. But both stocks sold off anyway while the Iran situation keeps driving oil higher and making the market more cautious. So, here's what happened. Broadcom did 22.19 billion in revenue, up 48% year-over-year.
Their AI accelerators and networking jumped 143% to 10.8 billion. So, they beat on earnings, they put out really solid guidance, but the stock is still tanking. Right now we have a classic buy the rumor, sell the news kind of move after that huge run into earnings. And we caught the majority of this move in Discord.
Today we sold uh the majority at about 190%. I left on a quarter to see if it would uh continue to the upside. And uh it's looking not that great. Uh this is not looking like another ARM play, unfortunately. ARM went up vertical all the way. It's anybody's guess what's going to happen tomorrow. We are back down at the bottom of the channel, and we're pretty close to the 50 EMA.
So, I wouldn't be surprised if buyers step in here on the open. Flipping over to CrowdStrike, this one has been on an absolute tear. And uh we're back here to this previous resistance now support. You got this blue dotted line here, and that's where we've pulled back to. Here's a deal with CrowdStrike.
CrowdStrike came out with 1.39 billion in revenue, up 26%. They raised their outlook for the year, and they even announced a four-for-one split. And it still got sold off pretty hard though because expectations were absolutely sky-high. And in the background, the Iran situation is keeping things a little bit tense.
You got ceasefire talks that are mixed and you don't know what to believe. Oil is up around $96 here. Question is what happens next? Well, the market's been on an absolutely incredible tear to the upside and tomorrow, if we see buyers come in on these dips in some of the big names, that'll show that the market still has more steam.
But if we can if we continue dropping, then it might be the top. However, looking at things from a completely just technical analysis structural perspective here, this is where our previous resistance was and all we've seen today is just a tiny dip, right? So, nothing has changed. And uh honestly, I've been saying for the past couple videos, I would actually prefer to see the market come down to uh the 21 EMA.
[snorts] And uh you're going to see the 21 EMA continue to take upwards and likely will come down here and then we'll get the next snap to the upside. If tomorrow it holds this area here at about, let's say, 736 on the Qs, if it holds this area, like right this area right below where we are, this could be our new support.
Um so, just watch out for that. Likewise, uh on the spy, I've been saying we just keep we keep flagging and breaking and this is the first move to the downside. So, we're going to watch it here. We got this area from over here from the 14th of May and this is where we stopped. Am I worried? Not really.
And uh we've scaled out on quite a few of our positions. We never got the rotation into American Airlines and uh we never got into to begin with, but we're back at the 21. So, let's just look at some plays here. We got uh gold uh today I got in uh a starter position on gold. We are at support. This area here at about 403.54 and if you zoom out a bit, you'll see that we got this area over here back in October 2025.
We got this area here in March. And look where we are right now. Am I expecting a big reversal to the point of control up here? I'm not calling for it, but it is possible. It would be possible if this is some kind of crazy double bottom reversal. But I'm not calling for that, but I am trying to get in here and ride it back up to 4:47.
If it breaks through that, then point of control, a previous point of control up here could be in play. But I'm playing it right now with some short-dated calls. I'm really just trying to catch a short-term bounce. In case, you know, market begins to pull back rest of the week into Monday, gold begins to pop a little bit and it's already popping a bit in the after hours.
On the watch list, RG today, I couldn't get myself to pull the trigger on this because we had earnings. Broadcom and CrowdStrike and I didn't want to add more risk. Here's the deal with Righetti, you got a range here and we're just right at the bottom of the range. We'll see tomorrow if this holds. I think we could get a quick snapback up to 27-28.
If you go back here, look at these candles, count these candles, see how many times we came down to $23 and then back up to $27. And if you measure this whole range here, we're talking about a 20% range. That's a very decent range to trade. Buy the bottom, sell the top. Pretty simple. And also there's RGTX, which is a 2x ETF.
Just discovered today, so I might pick this up. Not sure yet. Undecided, but today total RGTI down 12%. Could be due for a a snapback. All right, on to Broadcom. So we had the here. We had uh you know, the flag pattern and then it broke out, right? On the 3rd and on the 2nd, we saw buyers stepping in and that uh you know, that increased my conviction to hold a bit longer.
Today, we got a push to the upside. Contracts were up 190%. So, I'm out 3/4, left the quarter on in case we hit these uh fib extensions to the upside. We didn't get it, no problem. We'll see. Next is CrowdStrike. CrowdStrike is at a very decent area here and I think it might be worth uh getting in long here.
It's a bit aggressive and I prefer to get a deeper pullback to the 21. So, I'm going to watch this tomorrow. If we start seeing buyers, maybe give this 2 days, 2 3 days, give it the 3-day rule here. Wait for the 21 to catch up. We are not that far off here. So, 21 catches up, we hold up here for a bit and then we launch back to the upside.
Uh Microchip Tech, this one we have a position in, not doing pretty much and I didn't seem to be impacted by Broadcom or CrowdStrike. It's still holding the trend line, so this could be just compressing here for a bit before we get the pop. Going to give it uh another day or two, maybe Friday uh well, Friday or Monday and then decide if I want to cut this one.
IonQ, still holding support, looking pretty good, no problems here. And then there is IonX, the 2x leverage. On the watch list is AeroVironment. We have reclaimed the 21 and the 50, dipped a bit below the 50. However, it's not ready yet, but it is on the watch list. If we can uh clear here this 218 level and it's not as far off as it looks because this has been beaten down badly.
You put [snorts] down a trend line here or you know, there's you could draw you could draw two trend lines. But, the point being, we've broken out of this trend line, we've come back to the EMAs, and then likely a push higher. Keeping an eye on that. Next is Kratos. This one is got getting hit hard.
I was really itching to get in here when we were above support, but this is where patience pays off. You set your alerts and you walk away. You don't FOMO. It looked really nice. It looked like it wanted to launch to the upside. We were trying to take out the 50 EMA, but it pushed it down. We're back down here at about $57.
I'm going to continue watching it. I think it might have it might pop back to the upside, but AVAV a bit of a better play than Kratos in my opinion. Nvidia getting uh crazy choppy all over the place here, and I cut back my position. It came back to break even, and I'm like, "Nope. I'm not going to turn a winning position into a losing position." I cut back from full size back to a starter size.
If it breaks below 214.75 here, then it's likely coming down to the 50, and I would just get out of it. Morgan Stanley, let's see. I think we uh we still have I think I still have a quarter on of this position. Doing pretty well. It's hit it's hit its first fib extension here, the golden pocket at 210, and then you got the second one here 215, and then it's trying to go and hit the third one.
So, right now I have dialed back the position size, and that's what I've been doing the past 2-3 days, cutting back because you don't know when the pullback's going to come, and this market is way, way overdue for a pullback. Uh at least like a 2-3% pullback. I'm not talking like a market crash, but like a 2-3% pullback.
That way we can continue pushing hard. [snorts] Uh OUST, not much doing here as long as holding the trend line, it's doing okay. Uh another one we closed out today is Iron and uh great timing. Closed it on the pop here. This one may have been like 130, 140%ish. Everything posted in Discord and linked down below in the comments.
So, if you want to join, check it out. Okay, next is AMKR. This one has broken back down below the trend line. Going to watch tomorrow to see if it can reclaim it. Uh what I liked about this trade is I was getting in here at a very tight area. You have your support. If it breaks, I'm out. If it uh continues to the upside, we got lots of headroom.
We still got room down here to the 21. So, I'm not too uh I'm not too much in a rush to cut this, but I'm going to keep an eye on it. Affirm is uh taking a heck of a beating. Uh it broke out and then it pulled back into this this like flat top triangle here. We're back at the point of control. So, what I was saying is I got this alert here at 65ish.
And uh it came down, it tagged it, which of course the algos love to do. They love to come down and tag wherever the orders are sitting. When you got a lot of volume here, this is where likely you got some stops. Little bit of stop hunting and then pop back to the upside. As long as we're holding back in here, I think we get another breakout, which is why I'm being patient on this one, but uh I'll have to see if this contract needs to be uh rolled because it's down quite a bit.
Uh United, today I added in because we had a bounce off the 21, we had a breakout. Yes, it's a fake out, but we had a pre- we had another fake out. When you keep getting fakeout after fakeout like this, uh it eventually breaks out, right? And uh I think this is a good spot for United, especially if money starts coming out of semis, rotating into gold, rotating into energy, rotating into healthcare.
Uh we might just be going into a short-term reset before money starts flipping back into semis. It's just back and forth. You just have to pay attention to where the money's rotating and uh try and front-run it a bit. I'm not saying semis are done. Tomorrow could surprise the whole market. I hope this video was helpful for everybody and do me a favor, hit that like and subscribe so you don't miss out on any updates.
I will keep you updated on this market. Make sure to subscribe so you don't miss out on the next video. Peace.
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