저자: MingJongTey/인용인터뷰:CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 결론: 캐시 우드의 조정 경고를 소개하고, S&P500 차트상 단기 조정 가능성이 있으나 현재는 뚜렷한 붕괴 신호는 없다는 입장. [캐시 우드 인터뷰 인용] 성과가 좋을 때는 대개 조정이 가까이 있으며 투자자에게 대비를 권고. 장기 성장 궤도는 유지되나 중간 조정은 불가피하다는 취지. 5년 시계로 전액 투자 유지, 일부 현금 확보 권장. [S&P500 차트 분석] 일봉상 신고가 경신 구간으로 구조는 강세. 3600~3700이 지지대로 테스트 후 반등. 상승 채널 상단(약 3800) 부근이 저항 후보. [조정 시나리오] 채널 상단 도달 후 매물 출회 시 조정 가능성. 과거 조정폭을 참고하면 약 10% 되돌림 가능, 그 경우 지지 구간은 3600 부근(3510~3620). [조정 신호] 급등 후 공급 폭증과 큰 음봉(변화 캐릭터 바)이 나올 때 조정 신호로 봄. 현재는 변동성 낮고 공급 흡수 중이라 아직 하락 결과는 없음. [과매수 구간] 상승 추세선 상단 근처 과매수 영역 진입. 다만 과매수가 곧바로 하락을 뜻하지는 않으며 과거에도 수개월 지속된 사례가 있음. [결론] 현재 뚜렷한 위협은 없으나 과매수 상단에 있으므로 가격·공급 흐름을 지켜보자는 관망적 입장.
다듬은 글
happy new year everyone this is ming zhong i'm glad to be back in 2021 with another new episode so in this video i'm going to share with you about uh kelly woods warns on the market correction is coming soon so during the interview session with the bloomberg about two three weeks ago um katie woods the cio and actually the ceo of the rark invest just warns about there will be a correction coming soon and i think that it will be very interesting to tackle this from the uh charts point of view with the technical analysis just by looking at the price action and let's see if we can just extract any useful information out or any telltale sign that we can spot from the chart about the market correction and if there will be a market correction to what point or what extent will the correction be and also to about the price target for the s p 500 if there is a correction come all right so before i just dive straight into the chart let's just have a quick view of what kathy wood has to say during the bloomberg interview session is about a quick one minute session so let's just have a quick look right there and whenever things have gone this well for me uh usually there's a correction around the bend and i want to gird for it and protect it and also prepare our investors for the possibility and say just keep some powder dry because what we're looking at here are long-term uh again exponential growth trajectories that uh they're not going to be stopped uh you can't stop progress uh and today when the government tries to stop progress uh well it usually fails uh and so even if we go through a correction and if i ex i expect one uh we must almost always expect corrections uh i just have to keep my eye on the prize but i i do want to warn uh investors that you know in the investment world it's not just straight up and to the right you know we will have those corrections so again we just keep our eye on the prize we have a five-year time horizon we are fully invested at all times which is what we are supposed to be uh but that doesn't mean that investors shouldn't you know sometimes take a bit of money off the table and keep some powder dry all right so uh i think everyone just heard what katie has said so let's just dive straight into the chart and let's see what else can we extract from the chart alone so as we can see in the daily chart for the smp 500 as shown here um so far i think um last time that we probably stopped somewhere around there and we went into the uh holiday seasons and so far i think it's just breaking all time high level currently is 37 60 66 right there so um in terms of the structure is seems very bullish to me um let's do now a little bit there so here is the call itself and we have a accumulation structure right there in the hourly chart and with a sign of strength rally beta yama action and then marking up forming a reaccumulation range so so far um we have another re-accumulation range breaking out and another re-accumulation as a backup action and also a breaking up so it seems to me um there isn't any immediate threatening moment yet um so far we have this kind of the silent strong rally and with an immediate profit taking action we can sit it right there so far um the volume in terms of the volume i think we have seen supply has been decreasing uh we have a localized increase of the supply right there but look at the results there isn't much damage done to the price structure in fact it's just barely tested uh the support zone right there somewhere around 3600 to 3700 and we have another uh attempt to break down touch 3600 level uh with relatively high supply level and subsequently just uh close to the holiday seasons christmas plus new year's and the volume just dies down with the price action the price just uh live up and in terms of the structure let's take a closer look right there so this looks like a sino-string really out from this accumulation range and look at the shallow type of the reaction so in in fact um there is a very uh threatening moment when we have this kind of the rejection tail with a spike off the supply level so i actually just expect some kind of the pullback maybe to test the middle part of the range right there but in fact the retracement is very shallow and subsequently we have seen another test and eventually just break out and with this kind of the uptrend channel uh with a price just traveling within the uptrend channel and so if we were to predict um some kind of the market correction i think the only clue that we have is some kind of the overbought so let's look at this uh trend channel right there so this is the up channel and we can see that the price is actually traveling within a channel uh with the supplies decreasing so we have touched quite a few times right there at the overbought of the up channel so one thing that we can expect to have some kind of the resistance is probably to hit around a 3800 level that should be coincide with some kind of the channel overboard overthrow and followed by another pullback maybe similar uh to this but should the supply just come in and also uh with a relatively uh high supply level maybe something like this or even something like this or this then um probably we can expect maybe a significant pullback or reaction i think one of the useful way to sort of predict or just anticipate the price action is to actually look at the the past structure so let's just uh take a look somewhere around there so this is a trading range or reaccumulation range um maybe similar to this kind of the recommendation range and once we have this uh breaking out pullback tested the support now turn sorry the resistance mountain support level and we have seen a move up aurelia followed by a very tight consolidation with a horizontal uh cause consolidation and then acceleration up so i think this is a very important uh characteristic so this kind of the acceleration with the climatic uh raelia is one of the characteristic of the end of the uptrend so you can see that this is a climatic move and followed by a change of character bar and then a change of character with the spike of the supply level so this sort of the characteristic characteristic is uh something that we should always look out for if we anticipate some kind of the correction but of course um the correction might not just uh come with a climatic up move it usually comes with either first this is the quantity up move right with a serration to the upside and second it could come in like a lack of the momentum type maybe something grinding up action and eventually just fall off so this could be uh something something like this maybe you have this kind of the shortening of the truss and not even touch the overbought channel and the volume right there could be explained as a fading of the demand so whenever there is a spike of the supply level something like september or even in october somewhere around there then we could expect some change of the character so this is the uh movement that i will be watching out so in terms of the target price then i think it's a very clear because the first uh support level will be 3600 level so let's have a scenario so this is the most bullish scenario where we have an acceleration uh trap site similar to this kind of action so we have a run-up consolidation and another acceleration to the upside so so far we have a breaking out running up and maybe some kind of consolidation and should we see another acceleration to the upside maybe we can mimic this kind of the movement then that should hit the channel overboard and followed by a spike of the supply level so this is something uh that we need to see in order to have some kind of the uh serious reaction or pullback of market correction that we anticipate and in terms of the target let's just have a quick measure for the last pullback right there so price range so let's just use this so that's about uh 10 360 point and the target the pullback target is actually just for under this resistor now turn the support level support level so that's roughly around 10 so if we take the previous reaction so maybe uh this reaction that will be i again i think it's somewhere around 10 percent so again 10 and also is falling at the previous resistance now become the support level so i think it just makes sense if we have a serious reaction and without much catalyst or the bad news whether it's a coronavirus or something wrong with the vaccine or any other news that we can't really predict um then just by technical analysis i think it just makes sense to have maybe some kind of the restoration up and then we have a full to test the previous resistance now turn the support level right there near 3600 level or maybe we can extend it to somewhere around 35 10 or 35 20 to around 3600 levels so this support area should be the first level that uh we'll be watching should any kind of the pullback or market correction come with the spike of the supply level so all this is just based on the past market correction as an analog so about 10 of the retracement and also for just um right at the resistance support level so if this time is similar to the pass then this is something that we can expect for the market so another thing that um i would like to highlight is definitely this kind of the overbought line so if you can see this uh dotted line the purple.line or the blue dotted line so we can see that it just can trace back to the past few years so that is actually previously as a demand line we can see quite a few touch so this is like a trend line a demand line and once it's broken so you see that there is a failure right there that's during the 2019 sell-off so it's just kind of acted as a middle line there so red test as the resistance level and have another test and then eventually just have a capitulation and during this uh acceleration up you just kind of go back to this line again and i have another reaction get tested again have another reaction and during just before the core itself last year 2020 we have a kind of a overbought overthrow situation uh penetrating this uh resistance or now become the supply supply zone or over overboard zone and eventually overbought and we have this corbett sell off and right after that we have a very quick recovery up and during this i think that's somewhere around september i've touched this line again so that become the overbought line and have a reaction so this is another uh almost a touch attempt to touch and have another reaction and now it's kind of uh just right at this supply line or the overbought line so it's kind of uh consolidated or grinding up there so that's um probably uh is just entered into the overbought region just based on this trend line alone and one thing that we need to watch out for is whenever we have this kind of the overbought situation it doesn't necessarily mean that the price must react immediately in fact uh just like the rsi indicator or any kind of the overbought oversold indicator it can just stay there for quite some time so even just right before this coffee itself off we have this kind of the overbought situation that lasted for maybe uh three months or so let's just have a quick look there that's a december and that's uh february so that's roughly around two months uh inside this uh overbought overthrow uh region so that could happen um in this kind of the situation again so we just need to pay attention uh regarding what kind of the price action that we have so if we really going to get a correction i think which is quite normal once we have uh seen a very uh tremendous run up something like this or even something like this so just like what kathy woods has said whenever everything went very well and has been going on very well for quite some time it's quite common to see a correction so it's just that so we need we need to watch out for the price action so this is maybe something that we can watch out for the change of character bar which is a big spread bearish bar in terms of the spread you can very much differentiate uh based on the past price action all of these candles are very small and very mild not volatile at all so suddenly you see this kind of the big spread volatile bar with the spine of the supply then we can probably assume then there is a correction is on the way but so far we can see that in terms of the volatility is quite a small spread bar right there in terms of the the volume the supply level um we have seen some supply absorption right there so there is supply coming increasing of the supply but no results no downside results yet so definitely uh keep watching the the price action and also the the supply level because uh we are just uh right at this overbought region based on the trend line that i've drawn all right so that's my view on the current market right now so right now i definitely do not see any kind of the threat based on the price and also the supply level but certainly we are in right at this overbought overthrow uh region so look at this every time we hit that then there is a correction right there so definitely uh watch out for this um if should we get something similar to the club itself i have no idea but definitely just watch the price section and let the market shows it through action all right so this is the end of the video hope you enjoyed it and get something useful out from the video so if you like the video just click like and also check out the video that showed up on the screen right now if you would like to increase your win rate in trading i will talk to you soon
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