Beating The Stock Market Throughout History | How Ray Dalio Is Beating The Stock Market

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결론: 시장을 이기려 하기보다 분산투자된 균형 포트폴리오를 구축하고, 현금 비중 관리와 저축 습관을 우선해야 한다. 전략적 접근: 개인 투자자는 전술적 베팅(단기 방향 예측)에 나서지 말고 균형 잡힌 전략적 자산배분을 택해야 한다. 자신은 예측이 틀릴 것을 두려워해 베팅을 줄였고, 시스템적 편향(항상 롱 포지션)을 피하는 것이 Bridgewater의 방식이라고 설명했다. 성과 근거: 2008년 금융위기 때 Bridgewater는 약 10% 수익을 냈다. 다만 이는 특정 가격 목표가 아닌 과거 사례다. 전술적 베팅 비판: 한 달 뒤 생각이 바뀌면 시청자를 오도하게 되므로 전술적 베팅 방송은 도움이 되지 않는다고 봤다. 금 비중: 불확실한 환경에서 포트폴리오의 5~10% 정도 금을 두는 것은 신중한 선택이라고 언급했다. 금 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다. 금리·현금: 현재 명목금리가 0% 또는 그 이하인 상황에서 현금은 인플레이션 대비 손실 자산이며, 세후 수익률이 물가상승률보다 낮으면 실질적으로 손실이 난다고 강조했다. 법정화폐 체계와 중앙은행 운용 문제도 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 과거 대공황·인플레이션 등 여러 위기를 학습해 다음 세대가 다른 경험을 준비해야 한다고 조언했다. 세대별 권고 3가지 중 첫째는 저축 규모 점검(월 지출 대비 비상자금 개월 수), 둘째는 현금의 위험성을 인지하고 물가 이상의 자산으로 이동, 셋째는 분산투자다. 리스크: 특정 시점의 경험에 치우쳐 다음 위기를 대비하지 못할 수 있다는 점과, 인플레이션이 세금 후 수익률을 잠식하는 점을 지적했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. look i'm i'm scared of being wrong in the markets it is not easy to win in the market in other words think about how you how you're going to have a balanced portfolio what you know is that asset classes as a whole over a period of time are going to outperform cash i think there are two ways that the average investor should think of investing one is are you going to create a good strategic asset allocation mix that is a balanced portfolio that means that you're not going to go to the betting table and bet against active investors like me it is more difficult to win in the markets than to compete in the olympics hang on a second hang on a second you guys have an extraordinary track record of winning yeah is it harder to compete in the markets today than it has been since you founded bridgewater no i don't think so really not the way we do it and the reason i'm saying not the way we do it is we don't take systematic biases i think for a lot of people they're systematically long everything you know and so we have a world in which there when the world gets bad it's bad for them in 2008 it was great for us i don't know we had nearly 10 return in 2008 so we have the opportunity to go either way we just may be wrong if we're wrong so so i'm so scared about being wrong that it has helped reduce my chances of being wrong because i'm so scared i won't take bets that i'm you know that i don't feel good about and we diversify our portfolio and that's how we we got the track record i think in the average investor most everybody don't compete against uh pros like ourselves or other people don't making tactical asset allocation bets or moving around in the markets because you're probably going to lose okay that's the most thing that you could be most comfortable with if they don't you have a depression the only times that hasn't happened but to to know how to achieve a balanced portfolio and that's a whole other subject i don't know that you want to go through if you're talking about tactical bets in other words i can come on the show and i can say i think this is good but then what happens is if i come a month later and i then change my mind because something has happened then i'm going to leave some i'm going to mislead people so the tactical bits i don't think are going to be helpful i would say um that we're in an environment in which it's very important to have a well-diversified and that'll include assets like to some extent maybe a little bit of gold in your portfolio in other words what could i tell investors try to achieve balance in various ways that's a whole subject about how to do it and also um gold you know at five percent of your portfolio five or ten percent of your portfolio under the circumstances would be uh also a prudent thing to do prudence is the important thing to do the reason i'm also referring to that is we have a situation where a debt is money in other words we have a fiat monetary system too and so we're having problems as these central banks operate and so that it's think of it as another form of cash and when cash now has zero or um zero percent interest rates or less think of it as one of those possibilities in terms of how do you how do you create diversification one of the problems is that the experience that you had as the last experience is the one that's going to stick in your mind and probably will not be the one that's going to get you so that the next experience will be very very different um i i know my my parents went through the great depression and then they missed out on the boom because then they're always thinking about that and so i think um i think that what they need to do is see all of those crises that's why you can see inflationary ones and see all of those and once you get that perspective i would say three things to your generation okay three recommendations the first recommendation is to is to think about your savings and how much money do you have for savings and the best way to think about that is to think how much money do i spend each month and how much money do i have saved so that i can how many months am i going to be okay without that and to value savings right and and calculate it because savings in that is freedom and security and think about what that is so that's that's the first what how much do i have for that the second thing is how do i save well what should i put my saving in and when thinking about what you should put your saving in realize that the least risk investment that you think from volatility is the least risk investment it which is cash is the worst investment over a period of time and you can judge that by judging the rate of inflation in relationship to the after tax income you're going to earn so if you have an inflation rate that's two or three percent and you're earning one percent and you have to pay taxes on that one percent or the one or two percent that you're going to get you're going to get taxed essentially at two percent a year and that's going to be a problem so you have to move into assets that are other assets that are going to do better over a period of time and when you do that the most important thing i can convey to you is to diversify well