저자: BillMiller·SheilaBair · 외국인
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결론: 채널 진행자는 비트코인 추가 상승을 강하게 낙관하며, 빌 밀러는 12~18개월 내 50~100% 상승 가능성을 언급했고, 셰일라 베어는 연준 회사채 매입이 월가에 편중됐다고 비판함. [빌 밀러 - 비트코인] - 가격이 오를수록 위험이 줄어든다는 주장(주식과 반대 특성) - 규제 리스크는 있으나 탈중앙화 특성상 정부가 막기 어렵다고 봄 - 최근 가이던스 발표 후에도 비트코인이 상승해 시장이 규제를 우려하지 않는다고 해석 - 베네수엘라·나이지리아·아르헨티나 등 자산 몰수 사례를 들어 비트코인의 가치를 강조 - 변동성은 수익의 대가이며 못 견디면 보유하지 말아야 한다고 언급 [빌 밀러 - 가격 전망] - 목표가는 없으나 기대치로 12~18개월 내 50~100% 상승 가능성 언급(약 6만~8만 달러 수준, 진행자 환산) - 상승 가능성이 하락보다 크다고 봄 - 과거 약 380차례 조정이 있었으며 조정 가능성은 인정 - 밀러 펀드는 직접 보유하지 않고 파트너십을 통해 약 5% 비중으로 보유 [채널 진행자 주장] - 비트코인 상승 근거로 규제 대응 사례(리버티 리저브, 해외거래소 사용자 차단)를 제시하며 계획된 흐름이라는 주장 - 밀러 발언을 인용해 투자 준비가 안 됐다면 손실을 감수해야 한다는 식의 해석 제시(자극적 해석) [셰일라 베어 - 연준 회사채 프로그램] - 팬데믹 대응으로 시작했으나 대부분 2차 시장 매입이 이뤄져 투자자·인수업자 구제 성격이 강하다고 비판 - 고용 유지 조건, 배당·자사주·임원보상 제한이 없었음 - 대규모 해고가 있었음에도 혜택이 메인스트리트로 흐르지 않음 - 저금리가 대기업·성장주에 유리한 자본 배분 왜곡을 심화 - 프로그램은 중단(소멸)되어야 하며 재정정책이 노동시장 지원의 주축이어야 한다고 주장 [리스크·조건] - 비트코인 규제 리스크 및 정부 대응 가능성 - 높은 변동성과 급격한 조정 가능성 - 연준 정책의 자본 배분 왜곡 및 월가-메인스트리트 괴리 [출연자 전망] - 밀러: 12~18개월 내 상승 우위 전망 - 베어: 연준 회사채 프로그램 종료 및 재정 중심 대응 선호 [종목별 방향(영상 언급)] - 비트코인: 상승 전망 (밀러, 채널 진행자)
다듬은 글
we're not going back to the same economy we're going we're recovering but to a different economy and it'll be one that is more leveraged to technology and i worry that that is going to make it even more difficult than it was for for many workers in silicon valley and my friends who work in technology know that what we did to the manufacturing workers we are now going to do to the retail workers the call center workers the fast food workers the truck drivers and then even bookkeepers accountants insurance agents lawyers and on and on through the economy so what happened to the manufacturing workers a very clear sign of what's going to happen to these other workers moving forward and i talked a little one of the things that's interesting about bitcoin is that it gets less risky the higher it goes that's the opposite of what happens with most stocks but is there a risk uh a regulatory risk here that there's no way this thing can just keep going and going without government pushback i i think you know we've had concerns all along about various regulatory uh actions that it could have been taken concerns about the chinese uh potential digital currency what that might mean for bitcoin the problem is as my son says with bitcoin and you can't cut the head off the snake here it's decentralized so if if the us government tries to put regulations in that are so onerous uh uh for bitcoin then the people that would own bitcoin own bitcoin will just go to other exchanges overseas that are less regulated and that are more opaque so i think that you mentioned that that series of guidelines that came down from from finn center there's been i think close to 7 000 comments on that uh and i think that well that is that would be negative for bitcoin the market clearly isn't worried about it because those that guidance came out two weeks ago and bitcoin has gone it's gone straight up since then so it may be the case that the people in the bitcoin market again i don't know what what everybody's thinking that to the extent that that the government tries to do something like this it just makes it it just shows that it's more valuable namely it's something that what bitcoin is trying to protect you against is the sorts of things that happen in venezuela or nigeria or argentina where the government wipes you out or confiscates your money or as franklin d roosevelt did in 1933 or 32 or 33 confiscate your goal so i i think it's it's something that you have to expect that it's going to be very very volatile and if you can't take the volatility you probably shouldn't own it but the volatility is the price you pay for performance welcome to the crypto teacher and guys you know i come back with that second video just to make you think and that's the one guys we're going to go over bill miller plus the fed facilities closing and we have some good information when it comes to the fed facilities but let's get into bill miller in the wild things he said guys the higher bitcoin price gets the less riskier it gets guys with bitcoin going up to these prices guys we have to save all these quotes that these billionaires and these investors have made while this price has been going up we have to save these comments because these comments are amazing now she also asked did he own bitcoin oh no we just have a 5 exposure now guys a crypto that you believe in is getting less riskier 50 of your portfolio should be in it if you really believe that but then he also said that his son said hey if the united states bans it then they'll just go to exchanges overseas guys what is he talking about we already have the exchanges banning us where we can't even go to binance we have to go to bonanz us so guys that makes no sense whatsoever if the united states wanted to ban bitcoin it would be banned to us we know this that's common sense so right now we even see the situation with xrp that help the price come on guys that made that made no sense whatsoever when the overseas exchangers were offering 40 and 80 interest on stable coins they banned the us users on the exchanges before it was rolled out and guys do not forget about liberty reserve when they took down liberty reserve that allowed bitcoin to rise and bitcoin rise for a reason guys i need for you to open your eyes you want the red pill or the blue pill they could have did the same thing with liberty reserve they could have just got out the people that of course was doing criminal things and took it over the same way they just did bit max they ran those guys out put new guys in it's the same thing guys this is all planned out but let's listen to another statement bill miller made so the final point on this bill then is you've kind of ruled out the prospect of a deep correction said that we we already saw that in the first quarter of last year um and because you have to think about this realistically for your investors every day you know do do you stay exposed and if so for how long what is your price target for bitcoin when is bill miller selling out or under what conditions uh if we're not seeing them right now well first of all we we own bitcoin in a a partnership that um my colleague samantha mclemore started recently called patient capital and it's about a five percent position in there but we don't own it in the fund because we really it's very very difficult to do that we're looking right now at the regulatory aspects of that and considering uh having the sec uh give us the go-ahead to do that in our funds but that's part of the issue on bitcoin it's bitcoin's got where it is with basically it's very very difficult for the average person to access through their normal channels which is why grayscale and and and people like that have done so well so in terms of a price target i don't have a price target i have some price expectations which i think that bitcoin from here anyway should uh you know should probably be up 50 to 100 from here in the next i'd say 12 to 18 months and if you were to ask me the over under on that i would definitely i would definitely say it would be much more likely to be higher than lower but again i want to emphasize you said that i thought the big correction was over i i don't i have no idea what the correction is going to be if there's a correction uh you know we've had 380 corrections i think if you can't take that then you probably should not own bitcoin well to your point if we're talking about that kind of upside that would be 60 to 80 thousand dollars over the next 12 to 18 months all right so i you're sticking with it you know we just it's a perfect time to check in bill after this extraordinary uh parabolic move higher that we've seen so while you're here now bill miller stated it can go up another 50 to 100 over the next 12 to 18 months he hurry up and cleaned it up when she said it wouldn't be a correction he said oh no i didn't say it wouldn't be a correction bitcoin has a 80 correction for the past three times every time so guys he wanted to make sure you knew the truth and what's the greatest statement he said if you can't deal what it don't go in it so what is he basically saying if you haven't done your research you deserve to lose your money that's what he's saying a fool deserves to lose his money guys this is nothing but a casino i need for you to understand this next we're going to listen to sheila bear on the actual fed facilities a new piece in the wall street journal criticizes the fed's corporate debt relief this year saying most companies benefiting from the fed's bond buying didn't need the cash to begin with and didn't spend it well either going as far to say as the fed's corporate credit facility should be left to die for more i'm joined by one of the authors behind this piece sheila bear ran the fdic during the financial crisis and is now a director at the volcker alliance sheila it's great to have you back and yeah i think a lot of people would say they're wary of the fed doing this you know as a normal matter of business going forward but that it would have made sense in response to the pandemic why do you disagree well i was actually initially supportive and uh i assumed their focus would be on the primary credit market and how allowing large companies who are impacted by the pandemic access credit markets to continue operations that's not really what happened the bulk of the intervention was in the secondary market it was really more of a bailout of investors and underwriters and boondoggle for a lot of companies issuing a lot of debt which they probably didn't need and we've got unprecedented levels of corporate leverage now so it doesn't the original idea was to support these companies as employers to continue operations but that's really not what happened the fed didn't put any strings on any conditions on this assistance there were massive have been massive layoffs and a lot of the companies benefiting from it even while some of them are paying dividends there were no restrictions on shareholder distributions or using this money for uh executive compensation as well so no i i don't think i don't see the evidence there that it really trickled down to main street it was a huge boon to corporate debt markets and it also has resulted a lot of misallocation of capital i think the these low interest rates had already highly favored large companies over small companies growth companies over value companies that was just intensified with the announcement of these unprecedented facilities so i know they were well intentioned initially sounded like a good idea but it did not work out that way and yes they should be allowed to die i wonder if part of the issue is that we're looking too closely uh added here because most of the people who have cited the importance of the the corporate bond buying are doing so as it relates to the entire recovery i mean a lot of people really pin the whole recovery to that moment when the fed said we're going to go beyond just the usual toolkit to this additional measure because it was really a psychological tell to everybody that we'll do whatever it takes you know the famous mario draghi line so you know when you you know does it miss the forest for the trees here yeah well i i it certainly wall street celebrated it it was great for the corporate debt markets i don't i don't have any uh quibble with that but is that what we want to use monetary policy for right so i think government interventions whether through monetary authorities or fiscal authorities should be geared towards main street and labor markets and helping the people who can't help themselves so yeah it was it was a huge boon to wall street and uh and widely celebrated i'm sure and again initially it seemed like a good idea but yeah i think there's a real job growth that would be different but we're seeing you know a week an employment report again today there's this huge disconnect between wall street and main street and the overarching problem is we keep relying on monetary policy to lead recovery when we get into these difficult times monetary authorities just simply are not well equipped to get the help to main street that has to come through fiscal intervention and yes we are distorting capital allocation significantly in the process people worry about consolidation big companies getting even bigger yes but again a lot of that is being fed by the quantitative easing into corporate debt purchases so i do think the fed well-intentioned stand down back off uh corporate america doesn't need any more help from you and i'm hoping janet yellen and mr biden's new economic team will be very focused on main street when they come into
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