저자: AndrewGiancola · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 주주서한 조언을 따른 90:10 포트폴리오(S&P500 인덱스 90%, 단기 국채/채권 10%)를 소개하는 영상이다. [결론] 버핏 포트폴리오는 저비용 S&P500과 단기 국채로 구성한 단순한 장기 투자 방법으로, 일반 투자자에게 적합하다는 주장이다. [버핏의 조언] 2013년 주주서한에서 비전문가는 종목을 고르기보다 저비용 S&P500 인덱스펀드를 보유해야 한다고 했고, 2014년 서한에서는 현금 10%는 단기 국채, 90%는 저비용 S&P500 인덱스펀드(뱅가드)로 두라고 밝혔다. [비용 강조] 높은 수수료는 장기 수익을 크게 잠식하므로 저비용 투자가 유리하며, 연 1% 수수료도 장기적으로 막대한 자산 차이를 만든다고 설명한다. [구성 종목] VFIAX(S&P500 어드미럴 주식), BND 계열 채권 인덱스펀드(전체 채권시장) 조합을 제시하고, ETF 대안으로 VOO 계열(VO)과 단기 국채 ETF(VGSH)를 소개한다. [수치] 포트폴리오 총보수 0.04%, 배당수익률 약 1.66%, 장기 연환산 수익률 약 9.99%(S&P500 약 9.94%)로 제시된다. [최근 성과] 최근 3년 버핏 포트폴리오 7.88%, S&P500 8.86%; 5년 9.88% vs 10.75%; 10년 11.57% vs 12.67%; 15년 9.43% vs 10.04%; 20년 9.81% vs 10.44%로 S&P500이 대체로 소폭 앞섰다. [은퇴 시뮬레이션] 월 100만 원(영상 기준 1,000달러) 30년 적립 시 원금 36만 달러, 최종 약 198만 달러 가정. 4% 룰 기준 연간 약 7.9만 달러 인출 가능하다고 설명한다. [리스크·비교] 과거 Javier Estrada 연구를 인용해 최악의 구간에서 60/40 포트폴리오와 유사한 성과를 보였다고 주장한다. 채권 비중이 높을수록 실패율이 커지는 데이터도 제시했다. [결론 조언] 젊은 투자자라면 버핏 포트폴리오를 고려할 만하며, 직접 조사를 병행하라고 권한다. 영상 말미에 M1 Finance에서 원클릭 리밸런싱 구성을 소개하고 제휴 링크를 안내한다.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett is the single most influential person when it comes to my investing philosophy and this is for good reason because he is the greatest investor of all time and while this is true this is also like saying Tiger Woods is the most influential person when it comes to my golf game all while I'm hitting the golf ball right into the lake and shooting a 90 to 100 every single time I play Golf the good news is Warren Buffett also gave advice to people like you and I who are just looking to build generational wealth for our families over time in fact he invests his wife's own money in this exact portfolio and lays it out exactly for each and every single one of us so that we can copy and mimic this portfolio so in today's video we are going to dive into the Warren Buffett portfolio now the beautiful thing about the Warren Buffett portfolio is that the Warren Buffett portfolio is actually a very simple portfolio anybody can do this anybody can actually put together this portfolio and to make it incredibly easy I already put the portfolio together for you in this video and at the end I also provided a link for you to M1 Finance which we can talk about later where you can actually just set it and forget it set this portfolio up with ETFs now Uncle Warren first introduced this portfolio in his 2013 letter to shareholders and if you haven't read Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders they are some of the best investment reads you can ever find they are a gold mine when it comes to investment advice and in his 2013 letter he gave us the first step into putting together the Warren Buffett portfolio he said this the goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners neither he nor his helpers can do that but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in the aggregate are bound to do well a low-cost S P 500 Index Fund will achieve that goal this is a profound message because what he's talking about here is investing in the S P 500 is one of the major factors to doing well especially if you're not a professional investor now in his 2014 literature shareholders he gives even more information Maya advice to the trustee could not be more simple put 10 percent of cash in short-term government bonds and 90 percent in a very low cost S P 500 Index Fund I suggest vanguards Buffett also stated in his 2014 letter shareholders I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors whether Pension funds institutions individuals who employ High fee managers what Buffett is saying here is that high fee Investments are not the way to go in fact low-cost Investments are the way to go because those fees eat so much into your Investment Portfolio we've talked about this a number of times in the personal finance podcast and on this YouTube channel as well we talk through why fees are so impactful to your money in fact a one percent fee could eat away at six figures to seven figures of your wealth building ability if you have it just a one person fee it doesn't sound like much but it actually is incredibly powerful for a lot of investors but here's the amazing part what we just read in Warren Buffett's letters to shareholders is we just got investment advice and portfolio advice from the greatest investor of all time so he tells us exactly what to invest in so what I'm going to show you now is I'm going to show you the Vanguard index fund that Warren is talking about here so there are two index funds that you can buy at Vanguard these are some of the best index funds that are out there I own them in my personal portfolio but in addition if you don't have enough money to start with index funds later on in this video I'm going to show you how to do it with ETFs as well which have a lower cost to get into when you invest in ETFs so the first Index Fund is going to be vanguard's 500 indexed Admiral shares or vfiax and this stands for the S P 500 Admiral shares and all this Index Fund does is it mirrors the S P 500 this isn't really a powerful thing to understand because this mirrors the S P 500 when one company is not doing well of the 500 largest companies in the U.S stock market they will be kicked out of that S P 500 and that's exactly what the S P 500 hundred is it is the 500 it's actually a little more than 500 but it's the 500 largest companies in the US that are the best performing companies in the US as well the only way for the S P 500 to fail is if America fails because this is the 500 largest companies within the U.S stock market now the second fund that Buffett recommends is having a bond Index Fund now what he talks about is short-term government bonds but in fact I like to have it even a more broad diversification and look at the Vanguard Total Bond market index fund and that is bbtls you put 10 percent in this Vanguard Total Bond market index fund and 90 in the S P 500 Index Fund and the perfect part about this is I modeled this exact portfolio out on y charts and why charts is an amazing way where you can actually look at some of these portfolios they have a seven day free trial that I'll link up down below that you can check out but I modeled this whole thing out in y charts and here's some of the key stats for the Warren Buffett portfolio first of all the expense ratio will be 0.04 if your invest in these index funds the dividend yield would be 1.66 percent The Net stock allocation as we know would be 90.16 and the net Bond allocation if we're doing a 90-10 portfolio would be 9.46 percent and the annualized all-time Total return of this portfolio is 9.99 so if you follow our Tick Tock or you see our YouTube shorts we talk about a 10 rate of return all the time this is why the S P 500 all time has returned a 10 rate of return if you invest in something like a Warren Buffett portfolio you're going to get close to that as well so let's see how this performed against the S P 500 because we always want to put it against that Benchmark as well and obviously it's going to be very close because it's weighted 90 percent in the S P 500 and 10 percent of bonds so we anticipated to be a little bit lower but those bonds help you ride out the market because the bonds are less volatile than stocks are meaning bonds don't go up and down as much as stocks do so let's look at this portfolio and see what happens here so over the last three years this this portfolio at the time recording this the Warren Buffett portfolio has returned 7.88 and the S P 500 has returned 8.86 over the last five years 9.88 for the Warren Buffett portfolio and the S P 500 10.75 over the last 10 years 11.57 for the Warren Buffett portfolio and the S P 500 Total return has been 12.67 over the last 15 years the Warren Buffett portfolio has returned 9.43 and the S P 500 10.04 over the last 20 years 9.81 for the Warren Buffett portfolio and 10.44 for the S P 500 and then all time as we talked about before the Warren Buffett portfolio is actually slightly outperformed the S P 500 at 9.99 and the S P 500 returned 9.94 but what I really care about here is I'm looking at this example as the last 20 years the Warren Buffett portfolio returned 9.81 over the last 20 years yes P 500 10.44 so what we want to know is is this a portfolio that you can actually utilize in retirement is this a good portfolio for retirement and to do that we need to figure out the four percent Rule now if you've never heard of the four percent rule it is a rule that states that you can draw down four percent of your total portfolio and if you do that you will be able to preserve your portfolio through retirement we've done a number of episodes on the four percent rule as well that you can check out so let's see what the 90 10 portfolio would do say if you invested one thousand dollars per month inside of a 90 10 portfolio you got those same rate of return as the last 20 years let's see what would happen and we'll do this over the course of 30 years so if you got that 9.81 rate of return over the course of 30 years here's how much you would have at the end you'd have one million nine hundred eighty eight thousand four hundred and fifty four dollars and your total contributions would be 360 000 that's how much money you would have put in and the amount of money that your money made this is incredibly powerful be one million 628 454 dollars now this is really really powerful to understand as we look through this so with the four percent rule is this a good portfolio to ride that out absolutely because if you did that thousand dollars a month and you had that 1.988 million dollars you could run on Seventy nine thousand five hundred and thirty eight dollars per year to be able to live on inside of that portfolio now if you need more money to live on then you increase the amount that you're investing every month or you buy additional assets like cash flowing real estate or something along those lines but at the same time this is an amazing portfolio for you to look at so that you can grow your wealth over time now for you chart lovers if you love charts run I'm going to show you here on the screen how closely they run so that you can see they're almost exactly the same the Warren buff portfolio and the S P 500 you just get a little extra diversification with the Warren Buffett portfolio now another question that we have is well how does this compare to more conservative portfolios out there in fact there was a finance Professor his name was Javier Estrada and he looked at this portfolio and said is this good for retirement is this a good portfolio for retirement he used that same hypothetical a one thousand dollar investment one time and he used historical returns and he looked at this with 30-year intervals and when he looked at these 30-year intervals he first looked from 1900 to 1929 because he wanted an entire historic return to see how this would do and then he looked from 1985 to 2014 and he collected data on 86 intervals in all when he did this now what's surprising is in the worst times within all of these time frames in the worst years of the market this portfolio performed very closely to a 60 40 portfolio why is this powerful because a 60 40 portfolio will not return as much as a Warren Buffett portfolio would why because it's 40 percent bonds that means it's 60 stocks 40 bonds bonds have underperformed stocks historically so this portfolio will not perform as well and a lot of reasons why people would utilize this portfolio is because they want to ride out those rough times well the Warren Buffett portfolio did very well in those rough times and during good times it absolutely crushed the 60 40 portfolio now the cool thing about the 60 40 portfolio one good thing I will say about that portfolio is that it has a zero percent failure rate over those 86 time periods in fact we'll pull this up on the screen and you can see the difference between various portfolios and their failure rates over those time frames you can see the 100 zero portfolio meaning 100 stocks has a 3.5 percent failure rate the 9010 portfolio has a 2.3 percent failure rate the 80 20 portfolio has a 2.3 percent failure rate and then you go down to 60 40 it has a zero percent failure rate and then the interesting thing is the more Bond exposure you get the higher the failure rate goes so the 37b portfolio had a 12.8 failure rate that's a very high failure rate you do not want your portfolio to have that much that high of a failure rate now I think that most people should consider the Warren Buffett portfolio and it should be the first thing especially if you're young it should be one of the portfolios that you opt to if you don't know what to invest because there's one of those portfolios that is really incredibly powerful and if the greatest investor of all time is telling you to invest in something why think twice who what other advisor can you go out there and ask that has better returns than Warren Buffett nobody does Warren Buffett has over a hundred billion dollars just from investing his money so this is something where you gotta look at who is giving you these tips so that you understand that this is one of those portfolios that you can look at over time now you always want to do your own research but if you look at some of these returns historically then you're going to be able to see that the Warren Buffett portfolio is absolutely amazing portfolio for a lot of people and it's one that I have held for a long time and some of my investment accounts as well and one of which is you can actually craft the Warren Buffett portfolio in something like M1 Finance now we did this for you so there's a link down below that you can check out where I already did this and crafted this portfolio for you so it's just a one-click thing and the reason why I like M1 Finance is you invest in ETFs which have lower costs to get into than index funds but in addition at M1 Finance you can rebalance your portfolio in one click I absolutely love that feature and I think that feature is underutilized for a lot of people especially if you don't want to rebalance a portfolio if you have this pie put together which I already put together for you you can check it out the link down below this will rebalance it for you all in one click and we'll put the Warren Buffett portfolio at M1 Finance on the screen here and you can see we chose two ETFs we chose vo which is a fantastic ETF that I've held forever and vo is the Vanguard S P 500 ETF and we chose vgsh which is vanguard's short-term treasury bonds ETF and so we did 90 in the S P 500 ATF and 10 in the short-term treasury ETF this will mirror exactly what the Warren Buffett portfolio is in the ETF version and the only major difference between index funds and ETFs if you're new to all of this is index funds trade like a mutual fund and ETFs trade like a stock so ETFs are easy to get in and out of and index funds are a little bit more difficult and time consuming to get out of them now there's some tax implications in there as well but these are also something that you want to look at now this portfolio also has as you can see a lower expense ratio in the index fund it's actually point zero one percent lower than the actual Index Fund portfolio that Warren recommends as well so that is another perk to having this portfolio in place and you can put this portfolio together fairly quickly so this is a very cool way it's actually a one-click thing if you already have M1 Finance setup you can just one click set it up or if you don't know where you want to invest your dollars M1 Finance is a fantastic Place completely recommend them have had a portfolio there for years and years listen if you guys have any questions make sure you leave them down in the comments below don't forget to like subscribe hit that notification Bell as well I hope you learned a ton about the 9010 portfolio and how to construct a Warren Buffett portfolio and if you enjoyed this video share it with a friend as well and we will see you on the next video
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