저자: MichaelFrazis,HeathBenneke—소속제목·설명미상부분있음 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 두 펀드매니저는 캐시 우드 보유 종목 중 테슬라·코인베이스는 보유/매수, 블록(스퀘어)은 매도, 워런 버핏 보유 종목 중 애플·코카콜라·뱅크오브아메리카는 매도 쪽으로 평가했다. 캐시 우드 종목 - 테슬라: 주가가 최근 18개월간 약 825% 상승했고 예측 PER은 약 228배. Michael은 장기 보유 입장이며 EV/매출 배수가 15배→60배로 급등했으나 장기 성장 전망에 낙관적이라고 설명. Heath는 에너지 전환 리더로서 130페이지 리포트를 준비 중이라며 낙관적 입장. 캐시 우드 종목 - 코인베이스: 사용자 약 6,800만 명, 2분기 매출 약 20억 달러. Heath는 매수, 신뢰성 있는 가상자산 거래소로서 장기 성장 가능성을 강조. Michael도 매수, 가장 빠르게 성장하는 저평가 기업 중 하나이며 가장 신뢰받는 카운터파티가 될 것이라고 평가. 캐시 우드 종목 - 블록(스퀘어): 시가총액 약 1,190억 달러, 예측 PER 약 132배. Michael은 대규모 인수(afterpay)가 EV 매출·매출총이익 기준으로 희석적이라 일부 매도하되 장기 주주는 유지. Heath는 afterpay 지분을 매도했고 통합 사업 모델의 가치를 검증 중이라며 우려 공유. 버핏 보유 종목 - 애플: 시가총액 약 2.4조 달러, 예측 PER 약 26배. Heath는 구독 서비스 전환이 긍정적이나 대형주라 추가 성장 동력 필요, 보유 입장. Michael은 매도 입장으로, 최근 3년 매출 정체 속 주가 상승은 멀티플 확장 때문이며 20배 이상 재상승은 어렵다고 판단, 나스닥100 간접 투자가 낫다고 제시. 버핏 보유 종목 - 코카콜라: 20배 EBITDA 수준, 성장 정체, 설탕 음료 수요 감소 리스크. Michael은 매도, 최근 12개월 S&P500 대비 부진(수익률 약 8%). Heath도 매도, EPS 정체·배당성향 상승·채권 대용(bond proxy) 성격으로 배당 지속성 리스크 지적. 버핏 보유 종목 - 뱅크오브아메리카: 최근 12개월 주가 약 80% 상승. Heath는 모든 은행이 매도 대상이라며 매도, 은행 업종의 어려운 미래를 전망. Michael도 매도, 2011년 이후 P/B가 0.25배에서 1.25배로 약 5배 상승해 수익의 대부분을 차지, 추가 성장 어렵다고 판단. 리스크: 밸류에이션 부담(테슬라 PER 228배, 블록 132배), 대형 인수의 희석 효과, 소비 트렌드 변화(코카콜라), 금융 섹터 규제·경기 리스크. 두 출연자 모두 시장 전체 방향에 대한 구체 전망은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to livewise by hold cell i'm ali selby and today we'll be putting the portfolios of the world's most famous investors on the chopping block we'll be taking a look at three of the top holdings from warren buffett and three of kathy wood's top stocks and to do that we're joined by michael frazis from fraser's capital and heath benneke from holland first up we're going to take a look at some of kathy wood's top stocks we've got tesla which truly needs no introduction his share price has risen around 825 over the past 18 months michael i might start on you is it a buy hold or sell uh this is a long-term hold for us we're extremely optimistic and about about the prospects of the company there's been a huge multiple increase so if you think about that gain over the last two years it was so explosive you know the ev multiple went from 15 times to 60 times if you look at ev sales it's probably three times to 12 times uh i don't think that's going to happen again but very optimistic about the long term so it's definitely a hold heath over to you it's currently trading on a p of around 228 times is it a buy hold or sell for you yeah look for us ally this is uh tesla syllabi so we're we're very we're actually about to release 130 page report on this where we've actually gone through to talk about the transformation of energy which is really you know when you think about some of the it's probably one of the largest conversations if not the largest conversation on the planet and they're leading the charge so he's going to continue to execute that scale like we've never seen before and so we're very optimistic notwithstanding the rallies actually had okay next up we have coinbase global which is a global cryptocurrency exchange heath i'll stay on you is it a buy hold or sell yeah another one in our portfolio so this is a buy for us so coinbase has really got the trust uh in the space around onboarding those who are particularly focused on web3 and crypto so we think there's a is a big bright future the listings really help with the public profile and we're going to probably see the first sort of google facebook of uh the internet of potential of the internet of value uh so i think it's very exciting time michael over to you it has around 68 million users and it recently reported around two billion in second quarter revenue is it a buy hold or sell for you uh this is definitely a buy for us i mean it's the it's one of the f the fastest growing cheapest companies um in indices at the moment uh and i think there's there's real advantage to the fact that the most trusted you know if you're setting up a fund um or you just want to make sure your crypto holdings are somewhere where they're most secure coinbase has by far become the preferred counterparty they'll be the biggest and best and they'll be able to maintain that as well next up we have a company which has recently made headlines down under it's square i'll stay on you michael is it a buy hold or sell oh look this is a sell for us you know we've been long-term shareholders but we have been reducing it so i have to kind of stay aligned to what we're actually doing in the market and the reason for that is they've done a major acquisition it's dilutive on an ev sales basis or ev gross profit basis acquisitions of this size and scale are extremely difficult to execute there's a question mark over that and i think overcoming quarters uh it will be increasingly clear that this has been a very dilutive acquisition uh so for those reasons we are selling down our position just a little bit but we will remain long-term shareholders okay heath over to you it has a market cap of around 119 billion and is currently trading on a forward pe of around 132 times is it a buy hold or sell yeah for us sally look we're we're after pay shareholders recently actually sold that position the portfolio and we this is for us as a whole we're actually we're doing the work at the moment we share michael's uh concerns around the interjection when it comes to a major acquisition like after pay but we're really trying to really understand what the integrated proposition uh could solve looks exciting could happen but we'll just see moving on to some of the oracle of omaha's picks first up we have his biggest holding and one of the biggest companies in the world actually i think it's the biggest company in the world it's apple it has a whopping 2.4 trillion valuation trading on a forward p of around 26 times so heath's staying on you is it a buy hold or sell hold for us with the apple is a great company got a great future the transformation is going on to subscription-based service revenue is is game-changing you see that but it's big it's got is a very big company and it needs some big game-changing things to actually help get those earnings going along so for us as a whole michael over to you i think warren buffett's position in it is worth around 130 billion dollars is it a buy hold or sell for you uh look for us it's probably a sell and we as shareholders of apple you know almost 10 years ago um held for quite a long time in the last three years sales have basically been flat uh most of the price increase and it has been a phenomenal price increase has been multiple appreciation you know going from seven times ebitda which was insanely cheap for the quality of the company you know to 20 times i don't think that will happen again uh and i think if you want the exposure to apple you're probably better off just getting it through the nasdaq 100.
next up we have one of the world's most recognizable brands it's coca-cola michael's staying on you is it a buy hold or sell i look at our framework of true love and explosive growth would have been like perfect for coca-cola many many years ago like now it's clearly post-growth it's flat it's 20 times ebitda and also it's got the headwind of you know people don't really want sugary drinks and of course they're gonna buy new things and launch new products um and try and stay on trend but it's clearly post growth and there's still risk in equities you know this company still dropped 35 40 in march 2020.
um so if you're going to take the equity risk i think you need to be in faster growing companies with higher return opportunities so sell it actually underperformed the s p 500 over the past 12 months i think it returned around 8 percent heath over to you is it a buy hold or sell ah coca-cola is a sell like we see this as being it's very typical a lot of companies out there x growth anything also gearing up the balance sheet pretty significantly over the last decade if you look at eps has gone nowhere dividend payout ratios have gone up very substantially and then this is all in the face of changing consumer preferences so it's very indicative of like an old world company that as you know michael's indicating went through a very strong growth phase many years ago but the game has really uh changed quite uh significantly in that way uh it's like a bond proxy a lot of people actually look at it that way which we think is even a risk in that regard in terms of sustainability around some of the dividends that they're actually paying out last but not least we have another of buckets top bets it's bank of america it's share price has surprisingly risen around 80 over the past 12 months heath it's the last one for you is it a buy hold or sell sell every bank in the world is a cell as we saw here in march 2020 how you know the bank sector was down very markedly and there's you know the banks have got uh exceedingly large challenges uh going forward so this to me is clear buffer picked this up pretty cheaply bailed out the bank in many ways and got a great deal but it is very very hard it's a very difficult future ahead as heath mentioned there there's likely to be a difficult future ahead for many of the banks of the world michael over to you is it a buy hold or sell uh for us to sell i mean i was looking at you know its performance over the last 10 years it's been a strong performer but i guess 10 years ago was 2011 uh so a couple years after the the gfc so it kind of makes sense and if you look at what what what drove that the the price to book ratio went from 0.25 times to 1.25 times so effectively went up five times and that was most of the return so even though it has been a strong performer in the past you know it's gonna be very hard for them to continue to grow if you're gonna take those significant equity risks which you are in financials then i think you need to be in higher returning opportunities well it seems our fundies aren't the biggest fans of buffett's major bets but we'd love to know what you think let us know what stocks you like the most from this episode in the comments section below and remember to give this episode a like and subscribe to our youtube channel we're adding new content every week you
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