저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 최근 주식시장을 닷컴 버블에 비유하며 '모든 폭락의 어머니'를 경고했다는 소개로 시작하는 영상이다. 영상은 2020년 팬데믹 폭락 이후 S&P500과 가상화폐가 사상 최고치를 기록한 배경을 짚고, 버블 여부를 판단하려면 시장가치와 내재가치를 구분해야 한다고 설명한다. PER(주가수익비율)을 핵심 지표로 소개하며, 애플(PER 약 29.5), 테슬라(PER 약 404), 애프터페이(수익 없음) 사례로 높은 프리미엄의 의미를 설명한다. 밈 주식 현상과 소셜 트레이딩이 주가를 이익과 무관하게 끌어올릴 수 있다고 덧붙인다. S&P500 평균 PER이 대체로 30을 넘으면 지속되지 못하고 폭락했다는 과거 패턴을 제시하며, 평균회귀 개념으로 버블 우려를 뒷받침한다. 반대로 캐시 우드는 AI와 기술 발전에 따른 내재가치 상승으로 시장가치가 정당화된다고 보며 버블이 아니라고 주장한다는 대립 견해를 소개한다. 결론적으로 어느 쪽이 맞을지는 확실치 않으며, 내재가치가 따라 오르거나 시장가치가 줄어드는 두 경로가 모두 가능하다고 정리한다. 투자자 유의점으로는 충분한 리서치, 분산투자, 손절 등 리스크 관리, 기업의 경영진·재무 확인을 강조하고, 불확실하면 ETF·지수펀드를 통한 적립식 투자를 제안한다. 특정 종목에 대한 구체적인 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
legendary investor michael brewery has come out on twitter and in the news saying that we are in a bubble he has said that recent surges and shares have reminded him of the dot-com bubble he says that he's compared it to options trading booms and crashes and over all historic market crashes michael brewery is thinking that we are bad experience in his words the mother of all crashes so in today's episode we're going to discuss are we going to see the mother of all crashes and if so how should we go about navigating them hello and welcome to global markets and in today's episode we are going to be discussing michael very's claims that we are in a share market bubble each week we talk about training investing in economics please like and subscribe so in 2019 we experienced the coronavirus pandemic it killed many people and has sent markets tumbling the u.s stock market crashed the australian stock market crashed markets across the world looked like they were batteries all-time lows and they were potentially going to collapse and unprecedented analysts were saying it's going to take us five plus years to even start to recover from chronographs however we fast forward two years later we are reaching all-time highs across all asset classes we have seen the s p 500 as trading at all-time highs or over four thousand dollars we have seen that the s p 500 new headlines have gone from are we going to reach all time lows to how high are we going to go in our historic rallies um we have dogecoin and cryptocurrencies have also experienced a boom this year rising thousands of percent so the question remains are we in a bubble and will we see a correction to that bubble so firstly what do we consider a bubble there are two main market terms that we need to understand to consider whether we are in a bubble the first is market value and the second is intrinsic value market value is simply how much a share is priced on the share market whereas intrinsic value is an objective measurement of how much the share is worth based on future growth and the company's earnings the market value however can also be um stimulated by social trading and mean trading as seen with the recent gamestop and tesla booms so we develop a bubble in the market where our market value grows at an unprecedented rate whilst the intrinsic value remains constant and as we have seen throughout history a market value will eventually meet insurance economy however before we go saying we're in a bubble we're in a bubble we have to remember that intrinsic value can also grow so one of the ways that we can measure the premium that investors will have to pay to get a share is the pe ratio so to further explore this term it's simply calculated by taking the earning per share divided by the share price so let's look at some examples for example apple has a pe of 29.52 this means that for every dollar that apple earns investors will have to pay 29 times that to get it at the market value generally a pe does not have to be one this is because we have market growth and future growth that goes into the value that it should be worth fairly for example if apple had a pe of one this means that we're assuming that its earnings are going to be constant and that there's no room for it to grow however we value it higher because we acknowledge in 10 years time it's we predict it to be earning more money and for its intrinsic value to go up so the pe ratio is simply the premium that we are paying however this premium can be a matter of concern when it reaches to unprecedented levels so an example is tesla tesla has a pe of 404 that means for every dollar that tesla earns investors would have to pay 400 times that to receive the shares so this has led to people being very speculative over whether tesla is overvalued and fairly so because a pe of 404 is extremely high it means that you're thinking of the growth in the years is going to be enormous and we've seen a phenomenon with gamestop well social media and social training has meant that its share price does not correlate to its earnings at all going at 300 the gamestop is also a share that is not very likely to be growing at the rates of companies such as tesla however another phenomenon that we have seen is afterpay on the asx after bay can does not have a p e ratio this is because after pay isn't earning any money yet and we've seen this phenomenon with lots of startups where they aren't earning any money and their share price is going up and this is because investors are paying purely for the growth of this stock and the growth that they'll see in the future this concept has divided the investment community with some people believing that it's a sign of a bubble when we're paying for something that's valuable valueless with other investors saying that it's a sign of a new market area where we value growth and we look for companies that will grow rather than companies that will necessarily only stay at a consistent growth we have seen this investment has changed has been changing over time we see more traditional investors such as warren buffett looking for the really solid shares whereas we have seen more modern investors such as kathy wood looking for extreme growth so let's look at the s p 500 average p e so if we pull up the graph we've seen that it's generally been above a level at 30.
every time it has gone above 30 it has been uns unable to sustain a market value and it has crashed so for example when we look at when we look at previous examples of where it has been above study we look at the dot-com crash we look at gfc and now we're in this uncertain time in statistics and mathematics there is a concept of divergence to the mean this means that this basically means that the p e ratio should be traveling around the mean and when it goes up it will correct to the mean when it goes down it will go up to the min and this can happen in two ways either market value increase decreases or the intrinsic value increases so this obviously sends alarm bells in many investors however kathy wood who has been leading one of the one of the top performing funds says that we are not in a bubble instead she says that increasing increased market values are a sign of increased intrinsic value and she credits this to artificial intelligence machine learning and economic progress she says that an intrinsic value will be meeting the market value by going up rather than the market book value going down so we have seen there have been two schools of thought we have michael brewery warren buffett charlie manga and we have seen kathy wood who has been saying that we aren't in a bubble this is not this isn't something that we can necessarily be for sure whether we're in a bubble or not so what is the verdict what do we think is going to happen the honest truth is we have two values we have our market value and we have actions of value and they will meet each other if history is to be trusted however how they get there it depends we can either have an intrinsic value grow to meet the market value or we can see the market value as michael brewery says shrink and we can see if the mother of all crashes however there are a few things that we should be careful of when investing in this current market firstly we should make sure that we do our research make sure that we aren't that we have a diversified portfolio if we are investing in shares such as tesla which we are expecting growth we should also employ some aging strategies and stop losses to make sure that we won't be victim to a market crash this is a market that we can still trade them the current market situation and the question of whether we earn a bubble does not necessarily stop us from trading however it does mean that we need to we need to be careful we need to have great risk management in place and we need to be researching the company this is very important we're living in a time where everyone is ipo and we are seeing so many ipos happening that is crucial that you look at a company and you look at their management their values their finances before you choose to invest and if you're unsure on what to do you can always look at etfs and index funds which over time do dollar cost averaging has gone up so that is it for our episode of global markets today where we discuss the latest training investing in economics you
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