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Mhm. What's going on everybody? I hope you are having a wonderful day. Let's get into it, guys. We got a lot to talk about. We're going to be talking for about 40 minutes before we get the FOMC meeting with Jerome Powell, his last meeting, Jerome Powell's last meeting as the Fed chair. So, let's see.
Let me out zoom a little bit. How do I look? I look good? I look good, guys? Oh, man, I hope everybody's having a beautiful, beautiful, beautiful, beautiful, absolute beautiful day. I am wife and I woke up. Well, obviously I got straight to content. I always record video, what's happening pre-market, what's happening post-market.
SoFi earnings came out this morning. You know, I keep everybody updated, make that content. Recorded some long-form videos, uh posted a new Kaspa video, and then my wife and I went and hit the gym. It was really good. We don't do that a lot, and so we're uh we're getting in the routine, and so in fact, I needed her to bring me a charger real quick.
Let me text her. Um because my mouse is wireless, and this is going to be a long stream. I don't want to die in midstream, guys, but I want to get into everything that's happening. You guys know my thesis on on everything with the market, where I think it's going and why I think it's going where it's going.
Uh if there's anything you all want us to look at specifically, just drop a comment down below. But hey, if you're over on YouTube, please hit the like button. It helps out more than you know, and uh subscribe if you're not a part of the Finance Freeman family. And if you're over on X, please click the retweetity tweet button.
And uh yeah, if you don't follow there, make sure to join the Finance Freeman family there as well. We post a ton, a ton, a ton, a ton over on X. We post a lot on YouTube, too, but you know, X is where everything's up-to-date. That's where all the clips are posted, everything like that. So, guys, um if you don't follow us over on X, I uh definitely recommend uh coming over here, following.
There's a lot of fake pages. @FinanceFreeman is the only real page, 14.3k. Um this [clears throat] is the only real one, but you could see the the amount of content that we post, you know? Um it's a full-time job for me, right? No longer a chemical engineer. So, I am a definitely, definitely um we post a lot to keep you informed.
I You know, I understand a lot of people have jobs, they have family to raise, they have stuff like that. So, my goal with content is that you know that you don't have to look at anything, right? That you can go about your day, you can go to work, you can raise your family, take your son to baseball practice, go to the bar with a friend, whatever.
Okay? You can do whatever you have to do. And you know that if you tune in to Freeman, he's going to let you know what's happening in the stock market, what's happening with oil, what's happening with any conflict overseas, what's happening with crypto, where Bitcoin's going, the best altcoins, everything.
I'm trying to be the most comprehensive financial page on YouTube, on X. And and and that's exactly what we do here. If it makes money, it makes sense. But let's dive into it, guys. We got a lot of comments coming, so we're we're try to get to as many as we can, but let's take a look. BTC down 3.7% on the day, ETH down five and a quarter, everything else just kind of, you know, trucking along and there's Zcash even for the day.
Bittensor pretty even for the day. Ondo down a little bit. Algo up 5% on the day. That's pretty good. Um Kaspa that woo, down 8% on the day. Maybe it's my video I released. Maybe people sold on the video, they didn't like it. I don't know. But um BTC recently took a little a little dump, guys. I've said this time and time again, you know, the world of finance is all interconnected, right?
So, if your dream is to make it in crypto, your dream is to make it in stocks, your dream is to make it in commodities, you got to know all of it because everything affects everything else, right? Oil affects stocks. Stocks affect crypto. And I can look at this chart right here and tell you what I think is happening with the S&P 500 and the Qs, right?
The Nasdaq, which is the tech stocks in the you know, stock market, that's what BTC trades like, right? So, I can tell you right now the Nasdaq's down. Oil is probably up. You know? And we had a target over here on our oil trade. Well, we don't have a trade, but from 118 was a technical target for inverse head and shoulders right here, and it has broken out of that, guys.
Um you know, I try to keep you all as up-to-date as I can here, but uh we do also have a have a Discord group. It's very cheap, less than two bucks a day. There we cover all my perpetual futures trades, all my spot buys. I was buying things this morning for my IRA. I You know, it's just the most comprehensive finance thing.
We bought meme coin recently. I mean, it's just, you know, if it makes money, it makes sense, right? And we make some money over there. So, that's the um the plan behind all of that, guys. Uh but we're going to be covering the FOMC meeting today. And right now, I mean, there's zero chance of a rate cut, right?
That's not what we want to watch this to see. What we want to see is the tone, the outlook, okay? If they have a summary of economic projections or if they comment on that. And the reason is, this is Jerome Powell's last FOMC meeting as the Federal Reserve chairman. Okay? Kevin Warsh has been confirmed, or it looks like he'll be confirmed.
So, he he will [snorts] be the new Fed chair. But you know, Trump wants him to come in and cut interest rates. That's not what he should do in terms of fiscal policy. Inflation is still higher than normal. Job market is hurting a little bit, but not falling off a cliff. And oil is just making inflation that much worse, you know?
Like if back here at $65, $70 a barrel, if we were at high inflation, what do you think a 2x of oil does to inflation, right? And that's why I relatively haven't been bullish on the market. Even though stocks made new all-time highs, I think it was a lot of hedge funds, um a lot of gamma protection for stock options, essentially.
Wouldn't believe in it. I'm I'm still not believing it, and I'm short the market. And so, if we come up here and we look, this is the semiconductor index, the SOX. And this has, you know, all the chip companies, right? Semiconductors. And if you take a look at this from the low that was formed March 30th, this was when the ceasefire was announced, okay?
Well, since the ceasefire being announced, this is a 52% Guys, we're not talking about meme coins here. We're talking about stock market, okay? Up 52%. And when we really come in here and look at where we are today, you know, okay, we've got higher oil than we had back then, okay? And remind you, we are this green line right here was the previous all-time high at 370.
It beat it by a hundred bucks. Okay? So, let's just let's just have a little bit of thought process. Let's think about this. See if it's logical. Okay. Back here, the market thought it was overvalued, or they wouldn't have sold it, okay? And so, the market thought it was overvalued over here, okay? And if we just do a little draw down, we could see that's about 25% from where we are now.
So, 25% drop, 21% drop would take us to what was considered the fair value for semiconductors at all-time high. Well, so let's see. What's changed in the market? And remember, guys, even if you're only into crypto, this Trust me, if this goes down, crypto's not going up. Like I mean, this is a unified market.
And so, let's think about that. What has changed to make us bullish? You know? When we come over here and we take a look, this happened because a ceasefire was announced with Iran. And the Strait of Hormuz was supposed to be open. Okay? That's about 20% of the world's seaborn oil goes through there.
There is we're in the worst currently the worst five worst oil crisis we've ever had. You know, in modern day history. And so let's let's take a look at it. You know, let's fast forward a month. Okay? That's about what this is. Let's fast forward a month. This was March 30th. Now we're sitting at, you know, April 29th.
So when we take a look at this, this is today by an hour ago. Trump will maintain the naval blockade on Iran until a nuclear deal is reached. The last report that we had was that Iran just wanted to open the straits and let's deal with the nuclear stuff later. Will maintain a blockade on Iran until nuclear deal is reached rejecting Tehran's approval.
Okay? The the proposal that he rejected um was about just opening it. No real negotiations. But look at this. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and US has prepared a plan for a short and powerful wave of strikes on Iran. Per Axios. Details include Trump says he will keep Iran under naval blockade until they agree to nuclear deal.
After the strikes, which would likely include infrastructure targets, the US would press Iran to negotiate again. Trump sees continuing the blockade as his primary source of leverage. Trump said Iran's oil storage and pipelines are getting close to exploding because Iran can't export oil. Brent crude hit $120 a barrel.
This is huge. You know, we've reached gasoline prices that haven't been seen since 2015. I remember when I was young, you know, I'm 31. I'm unk guys. I'm unk. Uh I remember back in heck, probably 2007 2000 maybe. You know, I'm sure it would have crashed there. I'm sure oil would have been lower during the housing crisis.
I have to look. But, you know, I remember when gas was like four something a gallon. And now it's you know, I have a Tesla, but uh cuz it's a awesome. But my wife has a minivan that's a gasoline. And you know, gas at Costco, man, was like two and a quarter maybe $2.25. There's rumors that or actually not rumors I seen it on um Tucker Carlson's podcast that over in was it Finland or Ireland?
They were paying like $15 a gallon for gas and heating oil to heat the house was enormous prices. So this is hurting European countries and Asian countries a lot. So guys, if if any of y'all are there in Europe, in Asia, you know, it sucks. No, I'm joking. No, like you know, I'm sorry. You know, it's it's not a good situation to be in.
Um but again so what has changed? We've got twice the price of oil. The ceasefire seems to be nothing that we're going to be going back to conflict. You know, every day that the strait stays closed it's like two week delay. I mean you've got to restart up refineries. You've got to you know, it takes four to six weeks for oil to get by ship from the Strait of Hormuz to where it's going.
Right? And [snorts] so even if it was fully started up today, it would take a month to start up refineries if they didn't have any problems. Take another month or two start shipping stuff. Right? So this is not a very quick process. Yet we're hitting all-time highs in the stock market, right? So I'm not believing it.
This is what I'm tracking right here. I may change my thesis if this changes, but you can see right here where I'm the hourly chart. Right here and I we did this in the discord Friday. So we got like the pico top. Um you can see right here we got above the 50 hour you know, the day after it bottomed.
Okay? Got up, tested it right here, tested it here, tested it here, here. Was above it the whole time. You know, and you can always tell a important level when you drop through it with pressure. You see that? You see that red candle that wasn't a little do do do do do, you know? It was something. And then we came down and like I told y'all yesterday on stream, I said this yesterday on stream if we came up and rejected off that line, that would be bullish and a place where I would potentially look to add.
And I decided not to add. You know, this is triple levered inverse ETF. I've got about 2,000 shares, about 26k worth, about 75 80 grand worth of short position essentially. Um you know, and there's a lot of power in it. Like say that was a blow-off top and we go into a low. You know, like look at this.
Like this is where it was at the bottom. You know, so I mean if this just goes back to there that's a $35 pump. That's 72,000 in profit. You know, so it's now there is decay with some of these ETFs, so it might not be just that high. So so it's not um you'd have to do a little research on that. There's a decay it resets daily, but still there's a lot of you know, money to be made if the market goes down.
And um so right now we're kind of the opposite, right? We're falling on this line on the inverse ETF as support. And over here we're facing it as resistance, guys. Now, just a reminder, everything I share I've got a very high risk tolerance. Nothing I ever say is financial advice. So always do your own research.
Don't listen to some random dude on YouTube that drinks instant coffee. Okay? My wife drinks Nespresso. I did the math on those dagum things. It's like dude how many did she buy? 36? It's like 40 Man, it's like a dollar 50 each one of them. $2. I'm like golly, you drink like three of those bad boys a day.
And uh so I'm over there thinking, hell I ain't going to drink these. That's expensive. So I was like Costco, I found some Nestle espresso um coffee. Very good. Fine grit, man. I got a water cooler in the house. I'll put like three scoops in here. Go put some hot water on it. Mwah. Saving money. Like I'm not broke.
I'm just cheap if that makes sense. Like I'll go I've no problem buying a Rolex. I've no problem buying an asset. I'll I'll buy meme coins. I'll buy short short stuff that's very risky, you know? Um I made tons of money trading. I've lost tons of money trading. I've got a very high risk tolerance, but uh I'm not one to spend money on things that I don't get like a ROI on, right?
Like we redid the floors in our house a couple years ago and spent like 30k doing it. My wife was like, "Hey, maybe we change the floors." I was like, "No." She's like, "Well, you're going to buy a watch or you're going to spend money on this or that." I'm like, "Yeah, but I can recoup that. Like I mean it's it's um recoupable, you know?
I can sell it. Like I can't sell these dagum floors, you know?" And so yeah, it's just funny. Let me know how y'all are. Let's get to some of these comments, guys. Happy Wednesday, fam. Cloud Delhi, day one supporter of Finance Freeman. I thank you with all my heart for the support you give us. Um Buy or sell gold?
Uh I don't know if I'd say sell. Um we can look at it. Let's come And guys, by the way, this is Blofin. They are our official stream sponsor. Uh if you're looking for a new exchange that has crypto, stocks um commodities then uh Blofin's one that I personally use. There's a QR code on the screen. You can also find a a link down below in the YouTube description.
But let's come over here and look uh gold. What is it? XA Yeah, there it is. Okay. [snorts] Let me break it down. And this is a really good example, so thank you for asking this question. Buy or sell gold? Because I want to explain how money works, right? How if you're only into crypto, you need to pay attention to stocks.
If you're only into stocks, you need to pay attention to bonds and gold and you need you know, let's let's take a look at this. Okay? Let's come over here and take a look at the Dixie. This is the US dollar index. Okay? And so let me bring this all together for you. I have a tweet that you can find that says gold will top when the Dixie bottoms.
Okay? April 17th. Let's find April 17th. Da da da da da. Oh, that was last year. This don't go back that far. But here, I want to go long time frame. Dixie let's pull up gold over here. [snorts] Okay, let's go look here. All right, this was January 28th. Let's go look at what the Dixie was doing January 28th.
Okay, you see this? And I have a tweet you can find you guys. That's why I totally recommend the discord guys. I I try to teach people stuff like this. I I said the gold will top when the Dixie bottoms. Now, why is that? Why is that? It's because gold is a hedge against the dollar. And so if the dollar is losing value, you need more of those dollars to buy the gold.
Okay? So gold went up, the dollar went down. Well, why is the dollar going up right now? Well, we have what's called the petrodollar. So if we come over here and we take a look at oil, all the unsanctioned oil around the world trades via US dollars. Okay? And so let's say that let's just pick an arbitrary number.
Okay. Let's say there was 300 units of oil a day. It doesn't matter. That was used globally. Okay, just just just say it. 300 units, whatever. Um a day, okay? [clears throat] And let's say that oil was 60 a barrel. Okay, so let's just use this as an example. Okay. Well, that right there is a certain amount of dollars needed in the world.
Okay? Well, what happens when this stays the same and this doubles? Well, this dollar has to double as well. People need twice the amount of dollars to get the oil. And because of that, it strengthens the US dollar. So if we come over here to the daily, we can see that let's go to February. So February 28th when the conflict started, which was right here.
The dollar was 97.4. It hit as high as 100.5, which correlated with up here. And so you could see how all markets are connected, right? That's why when people just look at crypto, you're missing 90% of the picture, right? If you're thinking crypto's about to take off all in of itself, you're wrong. You know, and it's a it's a good way to save money.
You just you have to understand finance, which is what we try to do here at Financial Freedom is is explain finance as a whole. I love crypto, it's changed my life, but we have to understand how finance works. And so to answer your question, it's a couple parts is what you need to answer this question.
The first thing I would ask is not so much should I just buy gold? Is gold a good deal right now? Maybe. You know, I mean our company or our country's going to keep printing money forever and diluting our money? Yeah. Like like it's never going to get better in my opinion, you know? And so you know, is gold being down, you know, 20%?
Is that a good deal? Well, if you thought it was a good deal at 5600, then yeah. But the question I had to ask myself is do I think the dollar goes up? Because I know if the dollar goes up, gold goes down. And then I will look historically, what are some highs of the dollar? And where are we at in terms of that?
And so you could see we're kind of the midpoint for the dollar if we go back to the '90s, you know? If we come up here, we put this here and we put this here, you could see we're right here at the midpoint, right? It's been as low as 71. I think that was during 2000 Yeah, the housing crisis. And then, you know, as high as this during the dot-com bubble.
Interesting. Elevated oil always precedes a recession. Okay? We've had some technical recessions, but we haven't had a huge capitulation since dot-com bubble, okay? We did have the 2008 housing crisis, that was bad, but that was [snorts] a little different than a complete complete market turmoil. We had the thing during the illness, but that was may we shut down all the businesses and stuff.
Right? And so I do not think oil is going to come down a lot. You know, it'll it'll find a price, but I don't see this conflict ending very soon. Even if it does, I don't see oil manufacturing resuming and exports resuming normally for a while. So with that being said, I expect the dollar to go up. Okay?
And since I expect the dollar to go up, I expect gold to go down. Okay? I joined because your thumbnail. Cool, man. Thank you. Thank you. It's hilarious. Man, it's crazy what artificial intelligence can do. You know, I used to pay 30 bucks a thumbnail. Now I pay a subscription for 20 bucks a month and I make them with two prompts.
But yeah, we got about a 18 minutes, guys, before Jerome Powell be up speaking and we will we will cover it. But yeah, so with something like gold, you know, if you go back to to crises throughout history, um like if we go let's go to like the weekly. Um let's go here when gold ran up. You could see gold ran up about a 7X.
Okay? If you look at from the lows, get that crap out of here, man. What is that? You know, from here gold ran up about a 5X. Okay? So actually less than it did leading up, you know, early 2000 2008. If we draw a fib on this, it retraced to about the 0.5 fib level. That means a 50% retracement of that pump.
Okay? If we come up here and we draw a fib level, a 50% retracement would take it to 3600. You can also see that a lot of times after these big blow-off tops, we at least come back to meet the 200-week moving average, which is all the way down at 2600. Right? So gold could definitely capitulate a lot, but I definitely think we have to think of things as a complete financial market, right?
Can't just look at gold, you can't just look at Bitcoin, you can't just look at S&P. We have to understand how money works as an ecosystem. And whenever you understand how money works, then everything makes sense. You see something going down, you you know what else is going to go up. You see something going down, you know why it went down.
You know, [snorts] it's a very different, guys. That's why I definitely definitely I know I said it a couple times, but definitely recommend the discord, guys. It's like I think we got it at like 50 bucks a month right now. We cover everything. Stocks, crypto, bond market, IRA. Like I bought some SoFi this morning.
I think SoFi is going to go lower, but it's in my IRA, which is, you know, I'm 31, so I got 30 years. So it's a a DCA, you know, but I bought 500 shares SoFi. I put it in there. Bought a meme coin, put it in there, you know? And so um it's definitely great. You can find it in the description on YouTube.
And soon I'll make a post and pin it on on X. But yeah, leading up to the um leading up to what we got going on with the FOMC meeting, the chance is zero rate cut. I don't think anybody's thinking there's going to be a rate cut, right? There's no reason to think of a rate cut. But the the tone is what we want to listen for, right?
We want to listen to the tone. We want to listen to the forecast. You know, if we come up here, we're April of 2026 right now. If we go to April of 2027, you could see we're currently 350 to 375. Odds are we are still at the same interest rate a year from now. Okay? Then if you want to look at the next highest probability, the next highest probability is that we are higher rates.
You know? And so Do you scalp or more of a swing trader? Yeah, it's a good question. You know, a lot of people I have a lot of people ask me, you know, or I'll post something and say that's not investing. I'll say no, it's trading, you know? Or you know, and they're two totally different things. A lot of people, you know, get this mixed up in their head, right?
I am a investor, but I also trade, right? Like I mainly trade my personal portfolio, I guess you can call it, you know? But then I have an IRA that I invest in. And um I would say I'm I'm more swing type trading, right? I I like to be on at least the hourly chart, you know, like whenever we're looking at this socks right now.
You know, I don't want to try to necessarily time the absolute absolute top. Like I would have even be okay making an entry here now. Now we did time the top. Uh we we got in Friday at market close. So we got in like right here 465. It went to like 468 in pre-market on Monday and then it's just been printing ever since.
But um you know, something like this is an ideal setup for me. You know, I identify some type of metric that I'm looking at. Um which in this case is the if we look right here at this blue, this the 50-hour um moving average and we can see that once we broke above it, we never went below it on the semiconductor ETF, right?
And when we broke below it, we broke below it with force, which means it was a pivotal level. And now we're up here getting rejected off of it, right? And so a trade setup like this is fairly simple because you have entry and you have you know, stop loss, right? You You're not like aiming in the middle like oh yeah, let me throw a dart right here random in the middle and cross my fingers and you know, yeah.
You got to have a little bit of um you know, you got to have a plan, right? And you got to be able to cut losses. You've got to be okay taking losses. Like you've got to be okay being like hey, I lost 3% of this trade. I lost 5% of this trade. But you have high upside, you know? Um So like if we just look at this trade for instance, you know, this the semiconductor index.
It would not surprise me to make new lows. It would not surprise me to see this going into a technical recession. It wouldn't. I don't mean to sound like a bear, but we are frothy. Okay? And so something like this and guys I could be completely wrong, but you know, minimum I would think a point five fib level after such a huge run, you know, but the 618, the golden pocket right here 618 to 65 makes a lot of sense.
That's also meeting up with the previous all-time high. Let me change that. So yeah, that um you know, that level makes sense. But you know, this a triple inverse ETF, right? And so you know, it falling 18% you know, that's what? If it falls 18%, that's a 54% gain, you know? I'm trading about 80 on it.
You know, that's a new Daytona or a new car, you know? Um And so yeah, I think it's all about risk reward. Um Man, I've never used ThinkorSwim. I've never used it. Um I I have friends that use it. Uh my mentor used it. Actually I have a mentor that used it. Um but I I personally haven't used it. Um you know, and I don't do a lot of I don't even have um TradingView connected to my um my exchange.
I should. I should, but I'm not doing really you know, I prefer more swing trade. Like I'm too busy, man. I'm I got this media company. I'm full-time making content. I'm always on the charts, but I'm always doing something, right? Updating my Discord, making a video, recording content, doing research, something, right?
And so I don't I can't just be zoomed in on a chart all day, right? Now I'll look at it every hour, but I can't be you know, so I'm not trading like the 5-minute candle, you know, anything like that. I'd much prefer to like swing trade a couple weeks, right? Like say I got in here. Say we came down here.
We bounced. Okay, I identify uh crucial level right here. I can move my stop loss up to here. Say we come down here, boom boom, you know, I identify another level. I move my stop loss down or if I'm okay, I take profit, you know, whatever. But um I'm also a conservative trader in that. So like once I get into profit, I move my stop loss to break even.
Once I get into more profit, I move my stop loss to in profit, if that makes sense. And um yeah, but um I'll show you guys real quick. [whistles] Bam bam bam. This is the number Yeah. If you're ever interested, I should probably promote it more, but it's just right here. I should update this. What it says uh it's kind of out of date.
But yeah, but that's it. Yeah, we got a good group. We don't really promote it much, but I can tell you I'm really about educating people, not about you know, this what I'm doing, you should copy me. Like it's never financial advice. Like you know, I but you know, it's kind of that old adage like you uh you give a man a fish, he eats for a day.
You teach a man to fish, he eats forever, right? And I used to teach at the college. I created a class before about analytical. That's I was a chemical engineer and analytical. And uh BTC getting beat by redhead. [snorts] I mean, it is a redhead's stepchild, right? It's like a a stepchild of the Nasdaq.
Right? And I had a guy the other day, "Well, prove it." "How do you know it just follows it?" Well, dude, I'm on these damn charts all day, every day of my life. Like it's what it is, man. Same thing. Same setup on the Qs. You see we broke below that. And the only reason I'm shorting the semis other than indices.
One, man, I don't like shorting the S&P. I don't like shorting the Q I'm the Qs are different because they're all tech, but the S&P tech could be selling off and people could rotate into you know, software or something else and it's like the S&P's up, but what I was targeting's down. And so I like going after single stocks or ETFs around one sector, right?
Cuz sectors do tend to sell off um together. But you can see the Qs were up 20%. Uh semiconductors up 50%, right? And so we've got a lot to look at today. Uh we've also got some really big earnings coming out. We got Google, Amazon, let me think. Google, Amazon, Meta and uh Google, Amazon, Meta. [clears throat] Dagum, I'm forgetting one.
Apple. Apple all coming out today for the Mac 7s, right? And that that that that's what's been keeping the market propped up for the last year. Is them saying hey, we're going to spend an enormous amount of money on artificial intelligence, but man, I believe it's bubbled, you know? The last time that we had this type of run-up on semiconductors was the dot-com bubble, right before the dot-com bubble.
Almost like identical to what we see now. [snorts] Now people argue and they say, "Well, it's actually not valued that high if you look at it on forward PDE ratio. It's like 25, 26." And that's true. But if you look at past PDE ratio, it's all-time high. And so of course they've got to be bullish and have these good price outlooks, right, for these companies.
But you know, when you're looking at PDE, it's price over earnings. And so you're hoping those earnings stay there. And you know, I think I think we're in this K-shaped economy and the everyday person is hurting. Um I posted this. I said I made a 3x on a RAM. About a year ago I paid 350 for this for my PC and I did.
I've got it right here. And I've I never installed it. And it's worth a grand now. I said not selling hodl until 100x, but I was just joking. But um I need to install the damn thing. But you know, let me show you something else that you know, SoFi, which you got to think Robinhood and SoFi, uh these are normie retail me and you trading applications, right?
I use Robinhood. I've got my part of my IRA on Robinhood. I've got a lot of it on Fidelity, but you know, that's a good measure of normies, right? In my opinion. And yesterday after market close, we had two earnings come out. We had Apple's tomorrow. Okay, okay, okay. Yeah, yeah, I was getting them.
I I knew we had I knew to I knew we had Meta. I knew we had Google. But yeah, so we got Apple tomorrow, which Apple the chart looks like it needs to go down a little bit, if I'm being honest. Uh Google and meta look pretty good. Um but I don't know. I think I think the market's looking for a reason to sell off.
If I'm being honest, like it's going to have to you're going to have to blow something out of the water. Like I'm just I just think to be cautiously optimistic. You know, a lot of people get uber bullish at all-time highs, but I don't. I get more bearish the higher we go because the money's not made when you sell, the money's made when you buy.
You know, people see a stock down 50, 60, 70%. They see Bitcoin down 60%. They're like, "Oh, man." But at all-time highs, they want to buy, right? The money's not made when you sell, the money is made when you buy. And let's watch this real quick and I'll explain my thesis. We only got a few minutes before Jerome Powell.
Perfect explanation of our current economy. We are hurting. Right here, Robinhood earnings missed earnings. That's because people do not have money on Main Street to invest from their paychecks, from anything. Visa beat earnings. That means people have more debt, they are using their credit card more.
That is the perfect explanation of this K-shaped economy. Yeah, so that's kind of my, you know, thesis of it is that, you know, Robinhood missed earnings, SoFi missed earnings, not by a lot, but but by a little bit. Um but overall, people don't have money, extra money to invest, right? Even this recent stock market run we had up, it was very low volume.
This was not on retail piling in. Retail's probably piling in now thinking they're buying the dip. Um it was like hedge funds buying for gamma support and and stock option hedging, in my opinion. Caterpillar is also tomorrow. They've been Yeah. Yeah. I mean yeah, it's kind of a, you know, the picks and shovels.
Like even though it's not necessarily like the picks and shovels, that's foundation, you know, if there's a lot of building going on and stuff. Uh you know, one thing that's been struggling lately is Netflix. And you know, this is the one that I bought a little bit in my IRA. I wouldn't mind buying more.
The chart could go lower and it might go lower, but if we do go into a recessionary environment, I think it could be good. Because if daddy can't afford to take his kids out to Dave & Buster's or to Chuck E. Cheese or to these these places every week, you know, because money's tight, well, what he can do is he'll find $28 to buy a Netflix subscription and buy a little bit of popcorn and, you know, a candy bar to to watch at the house.
I don't know what music that is. I don't want to be striped for something. Okay, guys, let me know, is he going to start with good afternoon? But I appreciate the he'll definitely be on time. Is he going to be late? [snorts] Let's see. Dang, this dude's never late. But I will keep y'all up to date with what's happening.
We're going to pull up a couple charts here and I'll flip back and forth. We'll pull up the S&P 500, which it broke out of this upward wedge. We will pull up SOX, semiconductors, because if that short goes bad, I'll be homeless. No, I'm just joking. Good afternoon. Uh my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefits benefit of the American
Let me know if you can hear good. The US economy has been expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up and is elevated in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals. That goal's [snorts] never going to be reached. in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer [clears throat] spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand at a brisk pace.
In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.3% in March and has changed little in recent months. Job gains have remained low. A good part of the slowing in the pace of the job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2% longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in March, boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.2% over the 12 months ending in March. This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the substantial rise in oil prices.
Most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal. Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3 and 1/2 to 3 and 3/4%.
The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. Beyond that, the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future course of the conflict itself.
We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
[clears throat] This is my last press conference as chair, and I will close with a few thoughts. First, I want to congratulate Kevin Warsh on his advancement out of the Senate Banking Committee this morning. This is an important step forward, and I wish him well as that process continues. The Federal Reserve exists for one fundamental purpose, to foster the economic conditions in which American families and businesses can thrive, stable prices, a strong job market, and a financial system they can depend on.
Every decision we make, whether about interest rates or regulatory and supervisory matters or other issues, is made in service of that purpose. Our decisions reflect the collective judgment of the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee, colleagues who demonstrate analytical rigor, principled judgment, and a genuine commitment to the public interest.
He's basically saying you can't just cut for any reason. process has long reflected a shared commitment to finding common ground in service to our mission. This institution is resilient, capable, and staffed by professionals of extraordinary talent and exceptional dedication. It has been a privilege to serve alongside so many great public servants at the Board of Governors and around the Federal Reserve System.
The Fed's work is only as effective as the public's understanding of it and you, the press, are essential to keeping the public informed about we about what we do and why. The people we serve benefit from your careful reporting. I welcomed the [clears throat] announcement last Friday by the US attorney for the district of Columbia that she had closed the criminal investigation.
She also noted, however, that she would not hesitate to restart the investigation. Over the weekend, the Department of Justice provided assurances that they will not reopen the investigation unless there's a criminal referral from the Fed's Inspector General. And absent such a referral, if they do appeal the recent court decision, they would not seek, as part of that appeal, to restart the investigation or send new subpoenas.
So, Trump's DOJ or whatever wanted an investigation into him for all the money that they were spending at the on the new building, but they said they wouldn't confirm him Warsh if there was an ongoing investigation. carefully. My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve.
After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. reject [clears throat] one chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair. Once sworn as board chair, his new colleagues will elect him to chair the FOMC as well.
As I regularly point out from this podium, our success in delivering our goals matters for all Americans. I'm confident that that the Fed will continue to do its work with objectivity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions. [clears throat]
Mark this Mr. Chair, appreciate the kind words about the press. Often doesn't come from the podium in different places, but appreciate that. Hey, I'll take a shot at that. Can you talk about what [clears throat] has gone into your decision to remain on the board? What kind of criteria are you weighing and how long might you stay?
Thank you. Sure. So, you know, my my concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors. And I I want to note here, this has nothing whatever to do with verbal criticism by elected officials. Uh I've never suggested that such verbal verbal criticism is a problem and neither has anyone else here.
But these legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our 113-year history, and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions. I I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.
It is so important for our economy Yeah, there's a lot of that they can depend on the independence of the Fed. The the world looks at the US dollar as the global reserve currency and accepts it as the petrodollar because there's a confidence that monetary policy is independent of central of the government, right?
And the worry is that Warsh gets in there and slashes rates because that's what Trump wants and they want to balloon this market. But if that happens, there's going to be a ton of confidence lost in the independence of the Fed. So, as much as I want my bags to print, um I want the United States to still be the world reserve currency more than that.
believe when I when I think it's appropriate to do so. Was that all your questions or was there Well, I just have a follow-up, which is what would you say to the criticism that by remaining on the board, you're actually taking a political action denying uh President Trump the majority of the board, which as president he would have if you left?
I I don't see that at all. As I mentioned, uh you know He's able to be there until March of next the actions that have been taken. I had long planned to be retiring and uh you know, the things that have happened in really in the last 3 months of of I think left me no choice but to stay until till I see them through at least that long.
Um you know, in addition, uh I don't see how this will interfere. I'm not my intention is not to interfere. You know, I was a governor for almost 6 years and the tradition is at the Fed that governors Trump appointed Jerome Powell as the first time I understand how hard it is to get consensus with 19 strong-minded people.
You work with the chair. You you try to you try to uh be heard, but also collaborate with the chair and try to support the chair when you can. When you can't, you can't. And I think that's the attitude that people generally take and that's the attitude that I'll take. Uh Nick Uh Chair Powell, if I could ask about the inflation outlook.
In March, you described the standard practice of looking through energy shocks as conditional on inflation expectations staying anchored. Since that meeting, there has been very little progress reopening key energy trade corridors. Can you help us understand how the inflation outlook has changed in the intervening period beginning with the prospects for tariff pass-through on the timeline that you had outlined in March before getting to the energy shock that is now on top.
So, you know, I would look at it this way. Um for a long time we've been working on on the hypothesis really that tariff tariffs would would lead to a one-time price increase and that that would go away over time. In other words, that there would be no further change, so measured inflation wouldn't reflect that higher level going up more and more.
And it's time for that to happen. You know, we really do expect that to be happening in the next two quarters. So, we'll be watching very carefully to see that what we've thought all along would happen. That's the kind of critical part of the forecast. We we need to really see that. With with energy, it's it's so hard to say.
I I mentioned, you know, in you know, sort of the textbook, you you would look through it an oil shock because they tend to be short-lived and they tend to revert. And monetary policy works with long and variable lags, so you you know, you wouldn't necessarily react right away. I think that is all the more true given that we're several years above 2% inflation and that we're already looking through the tariff shock.
So, I think we're going to be very cautious about that. It's but the the question about looking through energy really is not not in front of us right now. We it hasn't even peaked yet. And I think we'd want to see the backside of that and progress on tariffs before we even talk about uh about reducing rates.
So, [clears throat] if I could follow up, the the statement today preserves language that has taken on some meaning as it was socialized when the committee was actively lowering rates. Why is that easing bias still um ripe given how different the inflation outlook is now versus a meeting or two ago?
And what more would have to happen for it to get evicted? So, um that was as you will recall, we we had a discussion about that at the last meeting. We talked about it in in the press conference after the March meeting. We had the same today. We had quite a vigorous discussion about that that very issue and the guidance and is it still appropriate and that kind of thing.
And I would say that the, you know, number of people on the committee who either could support that language change changing to a more neutral stance so that a hike is as as likely as as a cut. And that number has increased over the intervening period and it's easy to see why. I mean, it's it's it's it's it's a good question, right?
You see inflation has moved up over the interim a bit. Core inflation's 3.2 Moving, albeit just a little bit, in the wrong direction. And we we know that there will be, you know, that there's headline inflation coming out of the Gulf and we don't know how much that will be. We just we're going to need to see.
So, it makes all the sense in the world that people would look at that and and we'd have a vigorous discussion about that. You saw the three people dissented over the language. I think all of those people agreed with the with the rate decision. Get some candles down, guys. The majority of the committee did not want to do that and and and I I was I didn't think we needed to do it this meeting.
It really was just a question of what's why do we need to do that now? You know, we have so much to learn. There's so much uncertainty about the path ahead. There doesn't need to be any rush to make that decision now because you know, what what happens in the next 30, 60 days, even by the next meeting, could really change the picture around that around that language.
So, you know, it was a it was a it's a Guys, if you appreciate these live streams, I'm live every day 12:00 p.m. Central Standard Time, please subscribe over on YouTube and follow over on X. So, Clay Jones, Financial Times. Um just just going back to this issue of the the easing bias. Um we've now got oil approaching $120 a barrel when it comes to the benchmark.
Um Brent crude. Um if it stays around those levels 6 weeks from now, what would be your guess best guess as to whether the easing bias will still be in the statement? Thank you. I I wouldn't want to guess. You know, well, first of all, we're going to have new leadership in all likelihood by then and and new leadership's going to have a very important role to play in that, so uh I won't be standing here at this podium to answer your question, so um I don't know.
As I mentioned, that's all I can really say is that we had we had a great discussion about that today. It's a you know, it's got it's gotten to be a better question in the We had the discussion. The the are still on the page of of not feeling the need to move to that level and I that's where I am. I I get it though, you know, at a certain point you would move and that that conceivably could come as soon as the next meeting.
Thank you. Just to follow up, [clears throat] the new leadership also seemed rather lukewarm on press conferences and on the dot plots. What would your advice to him be on these communication tools? So I'm I'm not going to give him any advice through you today here, but I've you know, I think communications generally is I think every incoming chair takes a look at communications and it's a very healthy thing.
I mean, communications is it's very complex and you know, you can always be be looking at new things and I if that happens, feels like it's going to happen, that's completely appropriate thing. Hi Chair Chair Powell, [clears throat] Neil Irwin from Facteus. Can you tell us if you've been in touch with with incoming Chair and Warsh?
Any To what extent is this a normal transition process versus all the things swirling around something unusual and and what can we expect when when he takes takes that podium in a few weeks? I haven't seen him since seeing him at a dinner in January where I congratulated him and had a nice nice chat with him.
Haven't seen him. I don't know what a normal process is, you know, the the last process was with Janet Yellen who with whom I had worked for six years and so it was a you know, we were sitting down the hall from each other so it was a very different thing. I think I think this is and will be a very normal standard kind of a kind of a transition process.
So that's that's what I expect. I have every reason to think it will be. Quick follow up, is the Supreme Court ruling on Governor Cook a factor in when you may leave as a governor? I wasn't thinking of it as such, but no, not really. I mean, I'm thinking more of the other things I mentioned. Chris. Hi, thanks for taking our question.
I wanted to ask a question about your tenure and Chris Rugaber Associated Press. During your tenure as Chair, you often spoke about how disadvantaged Americans benefited from extended periods of low unemployment. In the new framework the Fed adopted in 2020, some economists say elevated the Fed's employment mandate.
Are you worried that the the pandemic inflation spike that followed will make future Fed chairs more reluctant to pursue a hot jobs market and should they be? Um I don't know the answer to that. I mean, what we So what we experienced um in in the in the teens, the mid-teens was really low low levels of unemployment for a long period of time and no reaction from inflation.
And we all took very much took notice of that. We also noticed that the biggest wage gains were going to people at the bottom end of the income spectrum and we had many many reports of uh I mean, it felt like a fairly stable equilibrium and a lot of benefits were flowing to people at the bottom end of the uh income spectrum including companies were you know, setting up in um in you know, people who were confined and and like training them before they got out and it was it was a very healthy sort of set of societal dynamics.
So of course, I think anybody would love to get back to that. Um I I don't think that anything that happened to create the the global pandemic inflation was in any any way related to overweighting the employment market. I mean, it was it was a global shock that happened essentially very very similarly all over the world that had to do with closing, reopening stimulus and all that.
And I mean, you could you could look at it a graph of 10 big economies on the page and not know which was the US and which was Germany, France and things like that. So I don't think that that that insight was in any way responsible for the high inflation that we experienced. I wish I could go back in time and tell them when they were doing all that quantitative easing, boy I would make a cut too.
You've got to be strong on both of our dual mandates and we we just we for example now we we don't feel that the labor market is at all a source of inflation. So we don't need to be worrying about that. It's been a long time since we have had to worry about that. Well, actually during during the pandemic recovery the labor market was super overheated and tight and that's when we had to worry about it, but but not now.
Just on the other issue, are you would you need Do you need more assurance from the Justice Department before stepping down? Is that what you're waiting for or what else? I'm waiting you know, for the for the investigation to be well and truly over with finality and transparency. And I'm waiting for that.
And I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so. Michael McKee. [clears throat] Michael McKee from Bloomberg Television and Radio. I'd like to ask you if you could explain a little more or characterize a little more the discussion about the two-sided view and interest rates because there were some members of the Open Market Committee who've been suggesting that we may need to raise interest rates even absent the war because inflation was not coming down fast enough.
Is there any sense that interest rates might have to go up or was this just a setup to sort of warn people that you're worried about the war impacts? So nobody the three dissenters and and others who could have supported that and others who were you know, who were voters and prefer non-voters who preferred it they all supported the right decision, right?
So people are not saying we need to hike now. It's more a question of you know, don't we kind of feel that we should be neutral and markets are markets What are markets doing? People argue that this is consistent with markets are doing. And again, it's a it's a very fair question, but you know, these these changes there is you know, it's a form of forward guidance and you want to make you don't want to make them you don't want to make them in a way that that will be sustained and continue to make sense and not something you need to take back.
You know, fairly quickly. So I think we just a group of us including me didn't feel like we needed to be in a hurry on that that that markets are not confused about our reaction function. We don't have a problem to solve on that. But the other side of the argument is a good argument too. As as I mentioned, it's perfectly good argument to be having, good discussion to be having.
So and it came out the way it came out. Well, you've got three dissents [clears throat] in favor of two-sided warning. You've got yourself staying on the board. You've got the criticism that does come from elected officials and you've got a lot of critics who have faulted the Fed for being too slow 2021 with inflation.
Are you worried about Fed credibility under all of this? Is that one reason that you want to stay on? Not not driving my my thinking now. I mean, monetary policy is going to get made by you know, 19 people. There's a lot of stability there. Uh I mean, if you think about it any every new Fed Fed chair has the same situation which is you've got 18 colleagues on the FOMC, 11 of them vote during any year and you have to your job is to create consensus.
It's it's to talk to them, understand them, you know, be inside their thinking and be able to pull them together and and get consensus and move and that's that's what every Fed chair has to do and I I think Kevin Warsh is actually quite well, he has the capabilities, skills to be to be very good at that, I would think.
So I think I I'm not so worried about that process, you know, I think that'll that'll work itself out. [clears throat] Howard. Uh thank you, Chair Powell. Howard Schneider with Reuters. You you mentioned that staying on as a governor you intend to keep a low profile. I'm just wondering if you could give us a little more detail on what that looks like and how you can
touché. Um what that Yeah, walk down the steps. What that looks like and particularly around the policy discussion, how you're able to to have your intervention and not be a shadow chair, not have a kind of an outsized influence over the process. Yeah, you know, that's just something I would never do, you know, the shadow chair thing.
You know, you know, it's it's I don't know what the exact specifics of it will be, but I'm going back to being a governor. I respect the role of chair. I you know, I was a chair I was a governor for six years and I know what that's like. I know and I had a you know, pretty front row seat with particularly with with Chair Yellen to whom I I was close when I when I I was worked with Chairman Bernanke for two years, but um you know, I I I was brand new at that time.
So I got a a sense of what it was and I had real sympathy for how hard it is to get that group to consensus and I always felt like I you know, I don't want to add to that unnecessarily and that means try to support the chairs where the chair the direction the chair wants to go in if you can. If you can't, you can't.
But I think that's that's the way it's always worked there because the chair only has one vote plus the ability to develop consensus and if people won't be you know, they they won't if they're not flexible at all, then how do you ever do that? And so that's why the chair has the authority the chair has really is to develop relationships with people and work with them and then and then put something forward that has consensus.
And I you know, I I propose to be a very constructive participant in that process. Really out of respect for for the office of the chair. And in your view as a soon-to-be governor, how do you see the risks of oil prices bleeding into core inflation in coming weeks because that was it seems like the commentary that was coming from particularly some of the Reserve Bank presidents.
They were elevated concerns about the bleed into core and you know here we are with three dissents now. What do you see as the prospect of of a core inflation? there those prospects are real. Remember though our our they're real and the real thing is we're going to have to wait and see. We're going to need to see and the good news is we think our policy stance is just is in a very good place for us to wait and see.
We you know, we're right kind of at the high end of neutral or perhaps mildly restrictive. The labor market shows more and more signs of stability whereas inflation is kind of misbehaving and so maybe a little bit of restriction or the high end of neutral is just the right place to be. So we can wait here and see and see how things work out before we act.
And we'll see how much that you know, how much does come through into core. You see it already in air fares of course, but you may see it in many other places uh you know, we just don't know yet and it's it's so unknown because how how long will the straight be closed? You can develop any number of scenarios that you want.
But we really won't know until we know. So fortunately we're in a good place to to wait wait and let things develop. Thank you. [clears throat] Uh thanks Mr. Chairman. You started holding post post meeting press conferences for every meeting as opposed to the ones with just with SEPs. Can you talk about why you see that as a net positive?
So we um we always said when we were doing quarterly press conferences we always said we can move it at any meeting, but we only ever moved it at the quarterly SEP meetings where we had the press conference. So if you think about it, you know, we during the pandemic we were moving like a lot at every meeting and sometimes between meetings and and doing that without a press conference I think would have been quite challenging.
It's become the industry norm. It's the standard. I don't know whether that has to remain that way. I don't know. I mean I it's it's just something people have become used to and I do think it's quite helpful to you know, to uh I mean I I try to deliver a message on behalf of the committee rather than 18 people 18 other people going out and delivering their message and it's you know, it's going to be all over the place cuz we do thankfully have widely disparate views.
Um thanks. [clears throat] The other thing I wanted to ask about was the communications review from last year. Um uh could you describe the debate that happened first time since 1992 that there's been four dissents which is disagreement. Three didn't like the language and one didn't like one wanted to cut small specifics, but what we found very quickly was that um making making changes making really large changes for example to the dot plot or the SEP um it didn't have we couldn't come up with anything that had really broad support on the committee and and so we just moved on.
We didn't we we didn't really do as much on on that as we might have. And you know, I was never the world's biggest fan of the dot plot, but you you can't can't beat something with nothing and you know, there's a we've looked at a bunch of things and uh you know, it's something like I said it I think every new chair is going to look at our suite of communications and and think about what would be changes.
We we are the only major central bank that doesn't publish a forecast. And that's because we have a 19 person committee and you know, you try to do it you try to do that on the at the board that's hard at the committee that's hard. Uh it's hard if you do it at the staff. So it it's you know, it's been it works.
I think our communications are fine, but looking at doing it in a different and better way is the most natural thing in the world. Mr. Colby [clears throat] [snorts] Thank you. Um Colby Smith with the New York Times. If I could follow up on Mike's question about hikes, are we right to assume that the hawkish outcome for the Fed is still one in which the committee just extends the pause in rate cuts?
And to what extent is there a growing sense within the committee that monetary policy really isn't just restrictive at all right now? Um the economy is holding up relatively well despite this major energy shock. The unemployment rate has ticked lower. Inflation was moving sideways even before the war and is now moving higher.
Um so so where is the committee at on that debate? You know, where we're at is we think our really we think our policy rate is in a good place. Um if we need to hike we will we will certainly signal that and we will and we will certainly do it. And if we need to to cut then if it's appropriate to cut then we'll we'll signal the opposite.
I think we because we feel like we're we're in a good place to move in either direction um nobody's calling for a hike right now. Um so it really is going to depend on how things how things evolve and you know, that's really where it is. You know, as I mentioned you know, much closer question this cycle on changing the guidance, but but ultimately we didn't.
And as it relates to the war, at what point [clears throat] do you think the risks to growth will be larger than the risks to inflation as this conflict drags on? You know, you just have to find that out empirically. You know, with given our the fact that we're you know, a big exporter of energy and that our economy is far less energy intensive oil intensive than it was during the 70s um you know, the the effects on the United States are really substantially less than those of Western Europe or or Asia who are feeling much greater effects from from these things.
Our effects we're feeling in you know, in the current situation currently and in in sort of what's priced in which is you know, a relatively quick outcome. If if this goes on for much longer and prices go much higher then we'll feel that much more. And of course [clears throat] I'm talking about aggregate inflation numbers.
We know we're very well aware that people are experiencing higher gas prices all over the country now. And that hurts. [clears throat] That's and these are those those hikes may continue to happen. Uh and other other things are going to start to reflect air airline fares I've mentioned and and other other products and services that are dependent upon petroleum and derivatives of petroleum.
People are going to start to feel that. Edwards Thank you. Thank you Chair Powell. Edward Lawrence with Fox Business. So I guess I'll just ask you directly on this. The markets don't see a rate cut at all this year is what they're predicting. Do you think that we are at the neutral rate? Why or why not?
You know, the the neutral rate is a we cannot know it with with certainty. I think pretty close to the neutral rate. Yeah, I I always had it you know, between 3 and 4%. We're a little north of 3 and 1/2. So that's well in the range of what I consider reasonable reasonable, but at the higher end of the range of what I would consider reasonable neutral rate.
Um you know, I think you're the the labor market is still probably cooling off just a little bit. Um and I I I don't think there's a much of a case for any case really for the for uh policy looking you know, meaningfully restrictive maybe mildly restrictive or neutral I would say. Um and I want to follow up on some of the other questions about [clears throat] your future a little bit.
The the first time we've seen the four dissents now since October of 1992. Are you handing off a divided Fed? You know, [clears throat] the thing to remember is uh uh we have always had vigorous debates and and they're excellent debates. I have to say they're they've been really good. Uh and we're we're in an unusually difficult situation.
So we've we've really had four supply shocks. You can actually you can you can say more than four, but at a minimum we've we had the pandemic. We had the invasion of the of Ukraine. We had tariffs and now we have Iran and the oil um you know, the oil spike. So those every every supply shock has the capability of right driving inflation up and unemployment up and and what do you do?
You know, you're it's it's the central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do. So the right thing to do is to try to balance the achievement of those two goals and that's what our framework calls for us to do. But these are really tough difficult judgments. You've got to have a forecast for each variable.
You've got to think how long it's going to take to get back to target. You got to think how how restrictive or not is policy. So it's only natural that you have a range of views on the committee. You know, people are going to see it different ways. They're going to have different risk tolerances and that kind of thing.
I mean if everybody agreed that would be that would be surprising and I I think it's only it's partly a function of the extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five six years. Thank you so much Chair Powell. Selina Wayne with ABC News. Are you confident that Kevin Warsh will stand up to political pressure from President Trump?
So he he testified very strongly to that effect in his hearing and I and I'll take him at his word. And when it comes to gas right now it's over $4 a gallon. Inflation just hit a two-year high. Should Americans expect to be paying higher gas prices for the rest of this year and in your view does that take a rate cut off of the table?
And secondly by staying on as a Fed governor what message do you think you're sending to the president? I I don't know what gas prices are going to do for the rest of the year. And um it will depend on how long the straight remains closed and how quick quickly it can be reopened and that kind of thing.
But remember when gas prices go up um that's disposable income coming out of people's pockets. So they're going to spend less on other things. So there will be a hit to GDP. So it's a you know, it's a it's a question whether spending you know, goes down uh to offset the inflationary effects. So, it's not the answer isn't obvious ex ante whether you whether you should move your rate over because of that.
We'll have to see how it evolves. In the message it says President Trump by staying on I'll stand on what I said earlier. [clears throat] Victoria. Hi, Victoria Guida with Politico. Um, during your tenure Fed independence has come under pressure in a a lot of different ways. And I was just wondering practically speaking where do you see Fed independence as coming from?
Is it the law? Is it political support from Congress? Is it the actions of the Fed? What what sustains Fed Fed independence? Well, it's you know, it's it's to to a significant extent it is the law and you know, we've had to go to court to successfully so far to defend it. But you know, the law does create a setting in which the Fed can and is directed to make monetary policy without consideration of political factors.
And so I so part of it is the law. But it goes beyond that though. There's a set of customs. There's there's a boundary line between the Fed and the administration between the Fed and the Treasury Department. And we need to respect those continue to respect those boundaries about what the Fed is responsible for and what the Treasury is responsible for and what the rest of the administration is responsible.
So, some of it is legal. In fact, it's all legal at the end of the day. But there it's it's more than just monetary policy. We you know, we don't we don't want to use our tools to we haven't wanted to use our tools to achieve goals that are really clearly outside our mandate. Every administration looks at our tools and thinks it would be good to repurpose those to serve other purposes.
But that gets dragged that's dragging us into politics and in in the fiscal policy. So, we've resisted that. Well, and and maybe another way of asking it too is do you think that Fed independence is as strong now as when you became chair and if so, why? Look, I think it's at risk. I mean, I think these these you know, these legal assaults if you will as I mentioned you know, we're the institution is being battered over these things.
We're having to resort to you know, the courts to to enforce our legal you know, not I don't it's not so much independence. It's it's really the ability to do monetary to make monetary policy without political considerations. That's what we're talking about and uh, we've had to do that and we've been successful so far.
But that's not over. None of that is concluded yet and it's you know, it's really important. It's not about it's not about people who work at the Fed or the institution. It's about the benefits of a central bank that makes decisions based on analysis and our best thinking uh, it rather than you know, trying to help or hurt politicians.
It's you know, that there's there's a bright line between central banks who do one and do the other and successful countries have uniformly successful advanced economy countries have a really strong set of protections around their central bank just for that reason. So, that's what it's all about. I you know, I I think I am confident as I said in my remarks that the Fed will continue to make its decision based on analysis rigorous analysis and not on political considerations.
But we've had to fight for it. And I you know, I'd like to think that you know, I'd like to think we can get out of that era and go back to respecting you know, what the law says and what custom has been which is to you know, let the Fed do our thing. We're you know, we're we're not we're it's a it's an institution full of human beings who work super hard to get things right for the benefit of the public.
We're all human. Don't expect for perfection. But do expect us to make you know, decisions without political considerations and and the very best analysis we can bring. Katarina. [clears throat] Katarina Saraiva Bloomberg News. Um, how would you characterize um, what you've heard from your colleagues on your decision to stay?
Um, do you have their support? And then have you heard concern from your colleagues um, about continued legal attacks from um, the executive branch? Is this something that others have uh, you know, talked to you about? So, I think that um, I I don't want to report on what my colleagues think. They can they can speak for themselves.
But you know, there yeah, there are there widespread concerns that these things may continue. That's all that's all I'll say and uh, you know, and that would be a problem and uh, so. [clears throat] Um, and then I just also wanted to ask about um, Governor Waller's speech on the Reserve Banks. Um, what you know, do you have any thoughts on on centralizing some of those functions in the way he described?
And then um, have you know, do you are you concerned that something like that could potentially be a slippery slope to um, you know, to consolidate Reserve Bank functions even more in such a way where you you know, the central bank ultimately loses some of that important regional information? So, we try to be good stewards of the public's money and efficient and Chris in particular Chris Waller is particularly passionate about that.
Of course, so are the Reserve so are the presidents and you know, it's a question of how do you accomplish it? Uh, we we of course and and Chris said this in his speech. We you know, we want 12 strong independent central banks with their own staffs and their own monetary policy views and all that. But you know, there are things that are done in all 12 which could well be done at one much more efficiently and with cost savings.
And so there's a back and forth going on on that. But everybody everybody's on the same page. The other thing he touched on was was uh, the idea of removing Reserve Bank presidents from office over different different views on monetary policy and I would I would just agree with him so strongly that that would be the beginning of the end of of the Fed's ability to to make monetary policy independently.
If every administration could come in and do that you're you're just another cabinet agency at that point. So, that's not something that I would support. Chris said the same thing. Christine. Thanks Chair Powell. Christine Romans NBC News. I want to ask about legacy. When the history books are written, how do you think your stewardship at the Fed will be remembered for the past eight years?
You know, I'm going to just say that I think they're going to put a crown on me. What I'm going to allow someone else to say. I'll give you a mulligan on that. All right. I'm going to ask you about misbehaving inflation then. You talked about those four big shocks supply shocks over the past five years and in inflation still misbehaving.
What's your message to American families who feel like inflation has not been under control for them really since since the COVID reopening? You know, we're we're committed to bring inflation back down to 2% and and sustainably. That's that's our goal and we will we'll stick at it until that happens.
We keep getting these events keep happening which keep driving up costs and you know, the best thing we can do is to use our tools to guide inflation back down to 2%. I think trying to get there really quickly could be very costly in terms of of of job loss and things like that. But we try to get there over time in a way that does the least damage possible and you know, our commitment to that is never ending and unshakable.
How would you describe the economy outside of the misbehaving inflation? I mean, um, it's still awfully resilient given all of the blows. I don't know that you can be awfully resilient. So, it's actually quite resilient I would say cuz it's a positive thing if I can if I can have that amendment. Yeah, that you know, growth is really solid across our economy.
Some of that is that consumer spending is hanging in pretty well. The the most recent data are good and some of it is just the apparently insatiable demand for data centers all over the United States. So, a lot of business investment going into building data centers and every reason to think that that continues.
So, you've got an economy that's growing at 2% or better. PDFP which is private domestic final purchases that which is really a a better signal of of the momentum in the economy is actually higher than that. So, that's you know, that's a positive thing. We'll see if it makes it over this. If you look at the unemployment rate is 4.3%.
So, that's a low rate. That's pretty close to mainstream estimates of the natural rate. We've been there for a long time. So, it's it's it doesn't feel like a good labor market to some who who don't have jobs because quits are really low, hires are really low and there's effectively no new net job creation.
So, that's what I'm saying. You know, in a sense the labor market is in balance. But it's an unusual and uncomfortable kind of a balance where people who don't have jobs will have a hard time breaking in unless somebody quits their job. Yeah, guys. If you appreciate this, please subscribe over on YouTube, follow over on X.
It's partly tariffs which we think we think that that inflation should subside over the course of this year because it's it's kind of a one-time increase. It shouldn't be repeated. And that should start happening pretty soon. The energy inflation that we're getting should go through fairly quickly uh, and we'll we'll just have to see how that works out.
In the meantime, you know, we think our policy stance is in a good place for us to hold and and wait developments. Jennifer. [clears throat] Thank you Chair Powell. Jennifer Schonberger with Yahoo Finance. At the risk of beating the dead horse here, clearly three members objected to keeping that easing bias in the statement.
[clears throat] And you said the majority still didn't need still didn't need to move to new language at this point. So, does the majority of the committee still have a bias towards cuts at this point or has the bias on the committee shifted away from cuts towards holding or hikes if that was needed?
I So, I think that you know, the the center is moving toward a more neutral place. And that's sort of what markets are saying, too. I just think, you know, there's a lot of signaling going on when you change guidance like that. And so, we just I guess the majority a majority of us didn't feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now.
And but maybe it'll come to that. And And the reason is because, you know, we're kind of waiting to see what happens with with events in the Middle East and what are the implications of those events for the US economy. So, there was just a There's a group that feels like we don't need to be in a hurry to do that.
We we get it. And of course, we will move to a hiking bias if we want to hike and we'll move to a new a neutral bias before that. But there was a difference over whether to do it at this meeting at at a meeting at which all but one of us agreed that that the that the rate decision was correct, which was not to move.
And you just said to go that you believe Fed independence is at risk. Is it safe to say that you want to stay on as a governor to serve as a check and balance on that? I I want to stay until I I will stay until it's I feel it's appropriate for me to leave. And And yes, that is that is really what is driving this.
Uh I'm not uh I'm not looking to be, you know, a high-profile uh dissident or anything like that. I I'm I'm more looking at the other aspects of this and wanting to see that things have calmed down and and or returning to a traditional if Trump's going to come out talking about firing him or something.
working with the people that you have and bringing them into consensus and respecting that consensus. That's what That's what I'm I'm hoping to see. [clears throat] Matt Egan. Thanks, Chair [clears throat] Powell. Matt Egan, CNN. Uh you've made many tough decisions in your time at the Fed. And as your time as chair comes to a close and you think about your tenure and perhaps your legacy, are there any decisions that stand out as ones that you're particularly proud of?
And are there any that with the benefit of hindsight, you would take a mulligan on? Yeah, I It's hard to I I wouldn't want to single single out individual things at this point. You know, I'll just say uh you know, we all of us together have consistently tried to do what we think is best for the American people based on our tools and our objectives that that Congress has given us.
It's been very challenging because we've been in a situation of supply shock supply shocks really for 6 years. And it that's just a very different situation than for very long time what the Fed and other central banks were doing all the time was demand management. And, you know, and there was always the inflation mandate, but inflation was low for 25 years.
So, this is a very different world and a much more challenging one where you have to balance the two objectives. And by the way, central banks that have a inflation mandate have to do exactly the same thing because they're balancing economic activity. So, that's been challenging. And we've, you know, we've tried to do our very best through these really challenging times.
And I'm really proud of of uh the work that I've done that my that my colleagues and I have done during these these years. To follow up on some of the the discussion around Fed independence, [clears throat] can you explain to the public why this notion of Fed independence, which might sound kind of wonky to some, is so critical?
I mean, what are the consequences if either the Supreme Court rules against Lisa Cook or the Fed in the future decides to make decisions more around the political calendar instead of the economic data? So, every major advanced economy in the world has made the same decision the United States has made.
And that is that they want to take the making of monetary policy, the setting of interest rates to support the economy to achieve maximum employment and price stability. They want to take that out of the direct control of elected politicians. And the reason is elected politicians are always running for election and they'll always want low rates and that will re- lead to inflation over time.
So, after, you know, literally centuries of experience with that, the whole world moved to the different model. And it's it's worked great. I mean, this is this is the era in which inflation was under control for 40 years. Then we had the pandemic inflation everywhere in the in the world. And now we have inflation that had gone pretty much all the way back to target, really close to all the way back to target, and now is being buffeted by the energy shock in the US, buffeted by the by the tariff shock as well.
So, but what I would say to the general public is that's that's the backstory is that um it it don't think of about it an institution being independent. Think about it this way that you want people to make monetary policy and set interest rates to benefit the general public and it try to achieve economic goals, which are maximum employment and price stability, and focus only on that and ignore political considerations completely.
Ignore them. It's This isn't bipartisan. This is nonpartisan. So, we we want to just We just work directly for the American people doing these things. We don't think, oh, this I want to do this because the president says it's a good idea or because there's an election coming up and I want to I want to speed up or slow down the economy.
And I mean, that Think about that. If that's If that's what we were doing, we'd have no credibility. Markets would lose faith in us and our ability to control inflation and and and have any respect would be, you know, would be gone. And let me say, whatever people say, the markets believe in that we will produce 2% inflation.
If you look at longer run expectations, markets believe that they there's there's no sense in which our credibility in the markets has weakened. It's just not the case. It's People do get it that this is our commitment and that we will achieve it and it's priced in. If you disagree with that, then you can go ahead and bet against the markets.
But the markets are pricing in Fed credibility. Okay, we'll go to Richard for the last one. Thank you, Chair Powell. Richard Eskow with CBS News. Uh we talked a lot about gasoline [clears throat] prices and and even you mentioned airline ticket prices, both of which are up dramatically because of the war in Iran.
And so, I wonder, are you seeing that weigh down consumer spending in other parts of the economy? Um and if so, how worried are you that that will be a drag on growth? You don't see You don't see it in spending yet. You really don't. I mean, as one of your colleagues said, uh the economy has been resilient.
It really has. Not just this time, but it's been remarkably resilient for some years now. The US economy has just powered through shock after shock. And consumers are still spending. And that's what That's what the banks will tell you, credit card companies will tell you, the retail sales numbers that we got most recently.
People are still spending. And um you know, You think Visa beat earnings? in a world where if gas prices are much more, that's taking otherwise spendable money out of people's pockets. But right now, we we don't actually see much slowdown in yet. Certainly none from from this. But you think logically you will because people have a certain amount of money they spend.
If they're spending 25% more on gas or something like that, then, you know, that's going to come out of other spending. But we again, we don't see it yet. Um one last thing. You mentioned those economies in Southeast Asia that are particularly dependent on petroleum. Um they make a lot of the stuff that American consumers buy.
So, was there any discussion today about whether or not those costs getting passed along to consumers is a real concern and whether or not that might push up all of those things are in or are in the models that that we use to calculate inflation. So, we, you know, they're they're just parts You can ask about anything like that and they are they have a place The staff has a place where they're looking at that and pricing in what will happen with higher prices and that kind of thing.
Uh so, it's there. The effects are not that big yet. Uh you know, we're a huge economy. The import sector is only 10% of the economy. So, we're not like a European country where 50% of the external of GDP is in the external sector. We're also, you know, as I mentioned, we're an oil exporter. So, we're not feeling the same kind of pain and we're not likely to feel the same kind of pain that economies in in Western Europe and and certainly in Asia are feeling.
Anyway, thank you very much, everyone. I won't see you next time. Well, let's take a look at how markets look. I'll give you all my take, guys. I hope you all enjoyed that. Please subscribe and follow us over on X. Uh This is the socks. It looked like it was trying to break over that average. Um not doing it.
This does could potentially be a ugly cup and handle, which would take it back up to about this all-time high. I would definitely add position there. Um I don't know. You know, the spending has, like he said, been still there. But I mean, you know, everything costs more. I mean, people have to live and you see
[snorts] Visa beating earnings, which tells me people were spinning debt. So, fine Robinhood. Missed and Excuse me. You know, how long is oil going to stay elevated? [sighs] We're see I have this set up on the bodies of the candles not the wicks if you see and potentially rejected there on the spy. Let's go look at oil through USO.
Wow. Oil is over double from where it was when this started. And so, the longer this takes place the it's going to it's going to drag on this. Guys, we've got some big earnings tonight coming up. Which are the hyperscalers. What has been pretty much financing this economy for the last year. And um let's go take a look and see what the masses are saying about the FOMC meeting.
And yeah, make sure you follow on X after there's earnings. I'll have some shorts coming out talking about what the earnings per share was, what the revenue was, if they beat, if they missed. I'll let y'all know all of that. So, SOX is coming up. Let's take a look at Nvidia. Cuz Nvidia was lagging. It was lagging behind um all of the other semiconductors and then it started coming up.
[snorts] 1 hour about to have a cross between the 20 and the 50. That's not really that significant, but Okay. So, the line it's coming up to this. It's a pretty big resistance for Nvidia. If it breaks that, that'll be major. So, this is the previous all-time high. Also, this downward trendline, right?
So, we'll see if it tries to make a push up there. You know, we're 30 minutes away from these earnings coming out. So, big big big thing. Market would lose faith if it made political decision. Yep. Yep. Powell, every reason to think data center domain continues would be good if half the data centers under construction did hadn't been delayed or canceled.
So, let's look at this. Announced is in yellow. Construction is this turquoise color. You [snorts] know, and I'm really interested to hear Meta and Microsoft. Yeah, Microsoft. That's one. Uh Microsoft uh I think they're both today. I'm interested to see because they both announced uh Meta announced a 10 which is the company behind Facebook announced about a 10% layoff.
And Microsoft announced a 8.something% layoff. And so, obviously this money is needed for scaling or something. But is it going to show up in any of the numbers now? You know, like is it going to show that potentially I mean, I don't expect them to miss earnings, but could it potentially go into that or or does it go into project projections?
Like where does the where are those numbers coming from? Um the need to cut right now. You know, if they were making money hand over fist and had the financing, then I don't think they would uh I mean, 10% layoffs are big. Yeah, shout out to whoever said my thumbnail was funny. I appreciate it. [snorts]
It's uh I see. If you're over on X, you can't see it, but I don't know. I don't think y'all can see this. Let me let me do something real quick. That. What y'all think? FOMC live. Your boy Freeman drone Powell sell Trump pissed off in the background. I thought that was funny. I thought that was a good one.
[snorts] Okay. Not bad. Retail has created its new momentum darling. 3X leverage semiconductor ETFs. Retail participation in SOX 3S and SOX XL has reached the 97th and 99 percentiles on a 5-year look back. Yeah. I would be interested which one's long, which one's short. Bonds are going up. 0% chance of a rate cut next uh meeting.
That's an interesting question. You know, coming from you, that's very But which war do you think ends first? Um That's an interesting question. You know, coming from you, that's very interesting. Which war would end Dang the fact that he even Maybe they're on a similar timetable. I think Ukraine militarily they're defeated.
Okay. Militarily you wouldn't know that by reading the fake news, but Wow, he said Ukraine and this conflict will end at the same time. It's pretty crazy. Means this one should last a while. Can you explain what it means interest rates on change? Yeah, so it's the cost that banks borrow money essentially.
And so, if they borrow money at 4%, they're going to lend it to you at 6%, right? They got to make money on it. That's essentially, you know, easiest way to think about it. And so, if rates are higher, that means money is more expensive. If money is more expensive, that means people won't borrow as much.
They won't buy housing. They won't um potentially take loans for risk assets, you know, when when interest rates were 0% a few years ago, it was essentially borrowing free money, right? So, why wouldn't you do that and buy risk on assets that could pay you a a good um premium. You also have competitiveness um with higher rates taken out of risk assets because when you have higher rates, treasuries like T-bills offer more.
And so, if you're going to get 7% year over year, 8% at the when we're at all-time highs on the S&P 500, maybe that has a little bit of risk. But what if I can go buy uh treasury for 4%? You know, maybe that's risk-free. Maybe that's better. You know, and so, it's just the higher rates the worse it is for the economy, for fiscal markets, for things like that.
So, for the markets, we would want lower rates. Iran says revenge for the martyred leader remains in place. Okay. In a couple years you're probably like back I wish Powell was still there. Yeah. That's major, guys. I'm I feel like we feel a little frothy. Ain't going to lie, but we'll see. We'll see how these earnings look.
Look at this. Oil continuing to go up. Nvidia you know, we're 25 minutes from all the big earnings, right? And even though Nvidia is not reporting earnings, all the companies that pay Nvidia is reporting earnings. And so, I think it's important that we look at the semiconductor index. Maybe I should have added more there.
I thought about it, but um Yeah, that's a lot of money. Um You know, I think I'm just going to watch this, see how it plays out tonight. I got a good amount of shares. Um But yeah, we're we'll see. Um SOX looks you know, it's up even if we look now You know, it hasn't even retraced to the first fib target.
Which is like a super low target, right? The 236. To get to point fives, 386, get to the golden pockets, you know, 360s. [snorts] So it's definitely the market's running hot like everything's okay. Oil is running like everything's not okay. And last thing I want to look at I want to look at this. Jamie Dimon warns some kind of bond crisis ahead as global debt risk build.
Well, that's not good. Yeah, I want to see what uh Okay, so everything's going up. So Look, the two-year's up almost Wow. Yeah, so guys, whenever you're looking at this when interest rates go up, that means people are selling. And this is basically how central banks of the United States finances their debt, right?
So it's basically saying if you give the government money for you know, two years, they will pay you this amount per year. But and they have auctions and the last auction didn't even go through. It had a They had to tell the interest rates at the end. If we look just from 226 so about two months ago we're up Wow.
We're up almost .75. Yeah, it's like the stock market's just pricing all this out. And [snorts] that's why I just think guys just be be careful. You know, just be careful. If we look at February at this point right here stock market is up or semiconductors, which makes up almost 18% of the stock market now is up 42%.
Bonds are up almost three quarter points, guys. That is a lot. You know? And so just be careful. Just be careful. The number one thing we can do, especially at tops of markets is, you know get capital in crypto. We're kind of in the middle of the bear market, I think. And my overall opinion is, you know, the money is made when you buy, not when you sell.
And when we're all frothy like Nvidia is it going to be a $10 trillion company one day? Maybe. Maybe. I hope it is. You know? Um but is that worth me top blasting all-time highs in a market that hasn't been this frothy since the dot-com bubble after a huge 50% run-up in the semiconductor index for 2x over five years?
No. You know, I'm wanting to look at other companies. One of my favorite my favorite cryptocurrency play is this right here. Circle. Y'all know in the in the Discord I put a buy alert and then I talked about it on this stream at 55 bucks. Way back here. The only thing I regret is at 120 I sold half my shares.
And um so basically I have like 500 shares of Circle that are free. Um but I wish I would have I mean, I don't wish I would have kept I mean, I guess it's good I'm I made money cuz I could buy them back now, you know? I could get it's you know 750 shares for the same amount. So I guess I'm not but it's a long-term hold for me.
Like I did regret it when it kept going up. I was like, golly, this thing's awesome. But um you know, this is an amazing company if you've never looked into it, Circle. Um You know, I'm looking into Ondas is I don't know. I I I might put a little bag in Ondas. Uh uh I do already have a few shares. It's a drone company.
But right now I'm wanting to look at more quantum maybe some quantum stuff. Uh if we still have this this going. I think [snorts] no matter what we need power and like energy. And so I'm looking at um You know, I know a lot of people don't think nuclear's going to be able to happen, but I disagree. I think that this administration will get legislation through that'll that'll help.
And um you know, if we look right here, this is the four-hour. We come over here to the daily See, we had a bull cross back here sending it from 10 bucks to 200 bucks, a 20x. Well if we look here maybe we get another low. I'm not sure. We can draw fibs on it if y'all want, but um you know, we just got a bull cross on the four-hour.
Um again, that that doesn't mean it's going to go up up up, but you can see there's a bull cross here and it didn't bear cross until it had went up to 200 and then came back down to 121. So [snorts] these are lagging indicators a little bit. It just kind of shows momentum. But yeah, this this company's 11 billion.
You know, Nvidia's 5 trillion, you know? So um This is the kind of stuff that, you know, interests me more. You know? I haven't bought this yet, though. But this is also something. Um the last thing I'll show you guys and uh is hold on. [clears throat] Is um Again, over here on my Discord I uh I posted uh nuclear uh stock deep analysis and quantum stock deep analysis.
I mean, I post everything. Uh made like 20k shorting the Qs on the first run-up. I mean, guys, I really recommend uh checking the stuff. Good morning, good night every day. Perpetual futures trade, shorting stuff. Um technical analysis, different crypto. I mean, we're it's the most complete financial Discord out of anyone's, in my opinion.
And uh it's only 50 bucks a month to support me and be a part of it. And like I said, you can find it in the YouTube description if you're interested. We would love to have you there a part of the Finance Freedom Family. But yeah, let's keep looking. See if we can make it above this. That would be bad.
Um but so far all eyes on earnings coming out in about 15, 20 minutes. Listen to the earning calls. Uh capex, see how much they're spending, if they're increasing spending. I don't know if markets will like them increasing spending. But I could be wrong. We can debate it tomorrow, but you know, I feel like the markets are looking for a reason to sell off.
And so we will we will see. But as always, guys, thank you so much. This was the FOMC meeting. I hope you enjoyed it. I know I sure did. So I love you all. We will see you tomorrow at 12:00 p.m. Central Standard Time. I hope you have a wonderful night and take care of yourself. Mhm.
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