원문 보기
Tom some people know you you have sort of a reputation of being a perma bill but that's not necessarily the case I just bring us up to speed on what your recent positions have been and how long you've been bullish well you know we've been bullish for a couple years last year was a disappointment and I think really the December was really the month where the bulk case was essentially obliterated but that waterfall decline and the widening of credit and I think a policy er by the Fed is setting up 2019 to be probably the best year the probability of a double-digit year since 2009 so I think we've really got a great set up into this year what what are you looking at because we have a lot of people coming on saying earnings recession economic slowdown trade war risks brexit uncertainty why do you see double-digit gains well those all represent a wall of worry I think it's it's valid but you know the market and earnings don't have to move in sync because last year's a good example we had great earnings and poor equity performance because the market D rated I think multiples expand this year because one high-yield had the biggest rally in its history in the first five days this year high-yield posted a decline last year it has never posted two consecutive declines in a row so that's bullish for PE on equities I think you had a huge position adjustment because we had a waterfall decline in stock stocks felt almost twenty percent in two months that hasn't happened since 2009 so it's you know it's bullish and I guess you know the Fed pivot is foolish for pees on equities as well but but the earnings growth downgrades we've seen through the last couple of weeks is not bullish for the multiple people should be getting if growth is single-digit this year so and we're not 1415 where it's 1617 so is that not a concern when you also look at the valuations internationally yeah it depends on the root cause you know if this is trade causing a slowdown because and also lack of visibility so we have a big inventory adjustment taking place and destocking that's not something investors should put it permanent NPV on right it's a it's a speed bump if this is enough to tip us into a global recession yeah then stocks have a long way to go down but I don't think there's a recession within the overall market where do you want to be do you want to be in in the cyclical a sensitive area yeah so the PlayBook we're thinking about is 2009 because just like 2008 2018 saw this huge move into a defensive growth and everything else got obliterated so you want to own value cyclical z' in 2009 they outperformed by 3,300 basis points year-to-date they're leading but they're only up forming by 200 so I think there's a lot of room what about financials is that a cyclical or is it a value yeah that's that's a value cyclical yeah right so you like them yeah I think financials are a high-quality way to play this right now the big guys are the regional is often what we saw yesterday kind of both right I mean I think the regionals are sort of M&A stories but you know the the big large cap banks kind of deserve higher pease you know they're well capitalized they've got better visibility and they produce pretty decent earnings and just on the international picture clearly valuations a lot cheaper there but clearly the macro outlook is is getting worse is it do you buy them with these valuations or do you avoid it because of the macro you know I think value is starting to become more attractive now for managers non-us but e/m is a high-value weight index Latin America is a big value market so I do think p.m.
in parts of Europe are ways people can play value it sounds like you don't expect the US economy to slow down very much because that would be a headwind for stocks you know I think there's some destocking taking place because of the shutdown but we also had a 20% decline in stocks 72% of industries entered a bear market last year that's the highest and so 9 so mean I lots priced in and Bitcoin where what is your latest forecast we just published our outlook today for Bitcoin and we just described how like to think the 10 things that were head winds last year that really became headwinds last year seven of them are becoming tailwind and you know one of them is I think there is more visibility on an ETF approval we actually got a commissioner SEC Commissioner talking about that today and these things are positive for crypto how do you put a price target on I mean you're you were wrong last year in a big way with that very high price target so how do you feel confident doing it again this year yes well I mean yeah crypto stuff because it's not price-to-book right it's a it's based on network value so we're declining to establish like a price target but you know you can think about fair value which is you know what's the theoretical value based on the number of wallets and how the wallets are being used you know it's a lot higher than where it is right now so you're sticking a bullish guns there yes you
Comments 0