7 of the 10 things that were headwinds in crypto are tailwinds this year: Tom Lee

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2019년 2월 CNBC 인터뷰로, Tom Lee는 2019년이 2009년 이후 두 자릿수 상승이 가능한 가장 좋은 해일 것이라 주장한다. 핵심 근거: 2018년 12월 신용 확대와 급락으로 강세 시나리오가 무너졌지만, 연준의 정책 전환(피벗)이 2019년 주식 멀티플 확장을 유도한다고 본다. 하이일드 채권이 2019년 초 5일간 역사적 급등을 보였고, 하이일드는 2년 연속 하락한 적이 없어 주식 PE에 우호적이라는 논리다. 이익 전망: 최근 실적 하향 조정은 멀티플 상승에 부정적일 수 있으나, 무역 전쟁 등에 따른 재고 조정(디스토킹)은 영구적 하락 요인이 아니라 일시적 속도 조절로 본다. 글로벌 경기 침체로 이어지지 않는 한 주식은 추가 하락 여력이 크지 않다고 판단한다. 섹터 전략: 2018년 방어적 성장주로 쏠렸던 흐름이 반전되며, 2009년 플레이북처럼 가치 및 경기민감주(cyclicals)가 유리하다고 본다. 금융주는 대형 은행 중심으로 고품질 가치주로 제시하며, 지역은행은 M&A 스토리 성격이 강하다고 언급한다. 국제 및 신흥국: 유럽 일부와 중남미 등 비미국 가치주의 밸류에이션이 싸다고 보며, 신흥국 가치 투자 기회를 언급한다. 다만 거시 전망 악화는 리스크다. 미국 경기: 미국 경기가 크게 둔화되지는 않을 것으로 보며, 2018년 산업 72%가 약세장에 진입한 만큼 상당 부분 가격에 반영됐다고 주장한다. 비트코인: 2019년 전망에서 작년의 10가지 역풍 중 7가지가 순풍으로 바뀌고 있다고 평가한다. ETF 승인 가능성 상승도 긍정 요인이다. 구체적 목표가는 제시하지 않았으나 네트워크 가치 기준 공정가치는 현재 가격보다 훨씬 높다고 강세 입장을 유지한다.

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01. Tom some people know you you have sort of a reputation of being a perma bill but that's not necessarily the case I just bring us up to speed on what your recent positions have been and how long you've been bullish well you know we've been bullish for a couple years last year was a disappointment and I think really the December was really the month where the bulk case was essentially obliterated but that waterfall decline and the widening of credit and I think a policy er by the Fed is setting up 2019 to be probably the best year the probability of a double-digit year since 2009 so I think we've really got a great set up into this year what what are you looking at because we have a lot of people coming on saying earnings recession economic slowdown trade war risks brexit uncertainty why do you see double-digit gains well those all represent a wall of worry I think it's it's valid but you know the market and earnings don't have to move in sync because last year's a good example we had great earnings and poor equity performance because the market D rated I think multiples expand this year because one high-yield had the biggest rally in its history in the first five days this year high-yield posted a decline last year it has never posted two consecutive declines in a row so that's bullish for PE on equities I think you had a huge position adjustment because we had a waterfall decline in stock stocks felt almost twenty percent in two months that hasn't happened since 2009 so it's you know it's bullish and I guess you know the Fed pivot is foolish for pees on equities as well but but the earnings growth downgrades we've seen through the last couple of weeks is not bullish for the multiple people should be getting if growth is single-digit this year so and we're not 1415 where it's 1617 so is that not a concern when you also look at the valuations internationally yeah it depends on the root cause you know if this is trade causing a slowdown because and also lack of visibility so we have a big inventory adjustment taking place and destocking that's not something investors should put it permanent NPV on right it's a it's a speed bump if this is enough to tip us into a global recession yeah then stocks have a long way to go down but I don't think there's a recession within the overall market where do you want to be do you want to be in in the cyclical a sensitive area yeah so the PlayBook we're thinking about is 2009 because just like 2008 2018 saw this huge move into a defensive growth and everything else got obliterated so you want to own value cyclical z' in 2009 they outperformed by 3,300 basis points year-to-date they're leading but they're only up forming by 200 so I think there's a lot of room what about financials is that a cyclical or is it a value yeah that's that's a value cyclical yeah right so you like them yeah I think financials are a high-quality way to play this right now the big guys are the regional is often what we saw yesterday kind of both right I mean I think the regionals are sort of M&A stories but you know the the big large cap banks kind of deserve higher pease you know they're well capitalized they've got better visibility and they produce pretty decent earnings and just on the international picture clearly valuations a lot cheaper there but clearly the macro outlook is is getting worse is it do you buy them with these valuations or do you avoid it because of the macro you know I think value is starting to become more attractive now for managers non-us but e/m is a high-value weight index Latin America is a big value market so I do think p.m.

02. in parts of Europe are ways people can play value it sounds like you don't expect the US economy to slow down very much because that would be a headwind for stocks you know I think there's some destocking taking place because of the shutdown but we also had a 20% decline in stocks 72% of industries entered a bear market last year that's the highest and so 9 so mean I lots priced in and Bitcoin where what is your latest forecast we just published our outlook today for Bitcoin and we just described how like to think the 10 things that were head winds last year that really became headwinds last year seven of them are becoming tailwind and you know one of them is I think there is more visibility on an ETF approval we actually got a commissioner SEC Commissioner talking about that today and these things are positive for crypto how do you put a price target on I mean you're you were wrong last year in a big way with that very high price target so how do you feel confident doing it again this year yes well I mean yeah crypto stuff because it's not price-to-book right it's a it's based on network value so we're declining to establish like a price target but you know you can think about fair value which is you know what's the theoretical value based on the number of wallets and how the wallets are being used you know it's a lot higher than where it is right now so you're sticking a bullish guns there yes you