Why TSMC is dominating in the semi space

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인텔은 미·대만 관계 긴장 속 미국 칩 투자로 수혜를 받고 있으나, 최첨단 3nm 공정 경쟁력은 TSMC에 못 미친다. TSMC 생산능력은 AI·아이폰 수요에 필수적이며 연 300~400억 달러씩 증설 중이다. 미국 내 팹 이전에는 최소 2~3년이 걸리고 대체는 사실상 불가하다. 미국 내 생산은 비용이 높아 보조금 필요성이 거론된다. TSMC는 7·5·3nm를 성공시켰고 2nm도 순조로워 보인다. 규제 완화 등 정책 지원이 도움이 될 수 있다.

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01. Intel under CEO Pat gelsinger has emerged as one of the few beneficiaries of a more contentious us Taiwan relationship investing heavily in US chip manufacturing and Fabs with private Equity firms Apollo and Brookfield Shares are higher today as is global foundaries and Texas Instruments and Morgan Stanley does point out that their ships still do not compete with tsmc's most advanced 3 nanometer needed to build out AI it's uh interesting seeing all this in front of the Godfather of te care John tell you all of this but clearly there's a lot price action here and people reevaluating the the the opportunity I feel like stroking my chin after you called me The Godfather there but I think it really is an interesting Dynamic given that it's not like uh you can shut down the Taiwan situation you know if Trump says oh the US isn't going to defend them unless they pay up and Nvidia can suddenly shift all of their capacity to some us operation it just hasn't been stood up here and it won't be ready for you know four or five years operations so the thing I'm confused about is is the issue if if if tsmc has capacity in the US does that solve the issue or no well if they had a capacity at the scale necessary to satisfy Blackwell demand and all of the demand for iPhones and all of these things operating at higher nodes that really need that manufacturing capacity but I mean it's a juggernaut tsmc is and it would take the US and Intel a couple of decades to to that ofac already said at its Oregon plan that costs are too high and therefore the chips that they produce here in the US will be much more expensive than what they're producing back in Taiwan so that's sort of a an open door here for the Washington to provide some type of subsidy to the companies here that are producing wow but these things aren't quick to bring online it takes years so it's one thing if you're saying can we produce the same sort of thing over here that we can produce over there they're backlogged no matter where you're producing it so you can't really take the majority of the capacity offline and just be fine no I was thinking if you just said to them it can be tsmc but it has to be in the in the in in the US in order to make it but you still run into all of these yeah you don't have the workers you don't have the capacities well seea stick around we're going to do a lot more on this semi Smackdown let's bring in Matt Bryson senior vice president of equity research and hardware at red bush Securities jump in here Matt I mean there aren't really easy Alternatives if there's the threat of losing that Juggernaut capacity in Taiwan is there I no you've got it exactly right right uh you look at the next couple process Transitions and so it's not decade at this point but the next three four years there there is no alternative companies are already uh designing their next set of chips using TSM um and so that's that's where those chips are going to be coming from um and so no that that business can't move from TSM to Intel or TSM to Samsung to Samsung yeah it is on TSM And to clarify I wasn't saying uh a decade until they're able to reach that process node I'm saying until there's any possibility of being able to replace the volume that can be produced out of Taiwan because it's one thing to say we can make the same thing over here in smaller Bates it's another thing to say oh everything that you would have made in Taiwan we can make it here in the US right because it's it's chipped for like every single almost every single iPhone oh absolutely the TSM has been spending 30 40 billion dollars a year uh on adding capacity so replacing that in um I mean you can do it at some point but it certainly would take a substantial amount of time uh not even talking about the fact that the bring new Fab up um it's at least two to three years is there anything else the US Administration whether it's run by President Biden or former president Donald Trump that can be done to expedite and make the chips act more efficient I was speaking to the Council on formulations about perhaps easing some of the regulations around environmental concerns permitting just to help companies like tsmc really expedite their their manufacturing here I I I mean certainly you can make it easier to bring up a chip FB um and so yes if if you use permitting um that certainly helps uh one of the reasons that TSM has said that it's more expensive to build chips in in Arizona even with subsidies is um they don't have uh the front-end operations um in the US today um that already exist in Taiwan um so you could you could subsidize uh for instance the chemical makers uh who Supply into the Fabs um there are certainly things you can do at the same time you know TSM has successfully executed on 7 nanometer 5 nanometer 3 nanometer um it looks like they're going to successfully execute on two nanometer and this isn't easy um and so replicating their strength in operations um can you do it uh probably but um there there there's no certainty that you get it right say this time or next time