저자: Chris · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 심리는 불안하며 빅테크에서 자금이 이탈 중이다. 장기적으로는 약세 입장이며 연말 S&P500이 두 자릿수 하락할 수 있다고 본다. 금은 3,050 저항선까지 상승 여력이 있으나 이후 2,200~2,400 조정 가능성을 언급했다. 소형주는 러셀2000 이중천장(double top)과 베어 플래그 패턴으로 8~10% 추가 하락 가능성을 제시했다. 단기적으로는 과매도 후 반등을 기대하며 수주간 상승 여력을 봤다. 방어주로 필수소비재·유틸리티를 선호하고 월마트를 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Chris from Eulens is with us, founder and chief investment officer of The Technical Traders. Thank you so much for being with us. Um it's good to see you. How are you feeling about the market? What's the mentality for investors at this point? Yeah, good to see you, Nicole. Uh the mentality, I think investors are a little nervous.
I think we saw a big bout of selling last Friday, some distribution selling, and I think we're starting to see some big funds starting to move away from maybe the Magnificent Seven. They don't seem all that shiny. Nvidia seems to be fairly quiet. Uh so, I think we have investors feeling nervous, and they're rotating out of those big tech, and um you know, we saw the VIX, the volatility index, spike up.
We saw some panic selling on the New York Stock Exchange, which if you look at the volume ratios, we saw people dumping shares on Friday. Uh I believe it the it the bull market is trying to buck people out. I still think the equities market wants to push a little bit higher, but overall, people are nervous.
But as you know, Nicole, the market climbs a wall of worry. So, I am bearish longer term this year, but right now, I still think this market is clawing its way higher. Bearish longer term this year. So, the S&P 500 was uh trying to hold 6,000 today. It managed to do so and get back above that level.
Where do you see the S&P by the end of the year then? I think it could be down double digits. I'm not exactly sure where, but I do think we're going to have a pretty big haircut at some point this year, and you know, we're seeing some of the leading indicators. We're We're seeing the Magnificent Seven starting to stall out.
We've seen gold outperforming very well uh for quite a while, and that is a warning sign that investors are getting nervous about a stock market bubble. They're worried about bubbles in real estate, and people are liquidating. There's all kinds of stuff going on, obviously, with new uh president. We've got currency swinging and tariffs.
So, people are getting nervous, moving to physical gold simply because they're worried the stock market one could collapse, and two, real estate could start to get weak. And if people put their money in the banks, they're worried that the banks could go bankrupt. So, people move to physical gold in this type of market situation.
We saw this before the 2008 financial crisis, and it feels like this is kind of an echo of that same scenario. People trying to get out of the financial banking system into physical gold, and I think that is kind of leading into I think weakness later this year for the overall economy and the stock market.
And you're not necessarily recommending gold and or silver at this time. I mean, gold has been up 8 weeks in a row. It's been hitting new highs, getting closer to 3,000. Um you know, you're But I saw in your notes, you're not recommending gold and silver, are you? Or one or the other? Tell me. Yeah, so I mean, I own physical gold.
I like physical gold as a long-term play, but overall, most of the upside really has is is I think is done for gold. Uh gold is the play if you're to be in something, it's going to hold its value the most. It could continue to go higher. I think we could see gold move to about 3,050. That's where the next technical resistance level is on the charts.
So, there's not a whole lot of upside potential. Silver and mining stocks, on the other hand, are are different story. They're more of a speculative play. I wouldn't really touch those uh simply because they're not the global barometer. Gold, to me, is investors around the world, when they get nervous, they buy gold.
They don't really move into silver and miners to try to uh uh protect themselves cuz they're very volatile. So, I think you want to steer clear of the metals and miners. If you like the precious metals space, gold is the place to store capital and to maybe squeeze out a little bit more upside. But overall, I do think gold will pull back potentially to um 22 or 2,400 later this year if the economy rolls over and we start to see a bear market take place.
Gold tends to get pulled down very sharply with uh the overall economy and the stock market. Right. And then you move to more defensive sectors. You have staples, you have utilities. What kind of names within staples and utilities do you like? Uh that's a good question. Yeah, so I I really like to focus on sectors um versus individual stocks.
So, I'm a I'm more a so ETF driven. Uh but you're right, consumer staples and utility stocks have been doing very well over the last couple of weeks. People have been moving to those stocks cuz no matter what happens in the economy, we still need utilities to keep the world going. We need consumer staple products, and so those are stocks that have been doing very well, and I think they're going to continue to hold up.
They're kind of like a gold play. They're seen as a defensive sector. Uh as as for individual stocks, I'm not exactly sure. Maybe Walmart could be a play in terms of it kind of covers all of that. And when people get tight on money, and people are tightening up, Walmart and Costco tend to do well uh simply because they're all about saving money, and eventually we'll get back into a cycle where people go from spending to trying to save.
So, I like that uh those two sectors in terms of where to potentially put your money when things get a little rocky. Right. Staples, utilities, the classic defensive place, particularly if you're fearing feeling a little bearish um overall. And you are. Now, what about small caps? Cuz there were so many folks who say, you know, this could be the time for small caps.
Meantime, the Russell's down over 10% from its highs. Uh you're not saying that this is some great undervalued thing. In fact, you're feeling bearish on the group, right? On small caps. Exactly. Well, small caps generally lead the way. If you look at the Russell 2000, like the IWM or the Russell 2000 index, it really is going back up to the highs we saw back in in uh a couple years ago.
So, it looks like a major double top when you look at the long-term chart and zoom way out a few years. Uh and and the chart right now, as you can see there, it we're trading down near a low. It has a bear flag pattern. It looks like it could actually drop another 8 to 10% from where it is right now.
And small caps have been on a tear though. When you look in the last couple of weeks, uh really the last month or so, we've seen the ARK ETFs, we've seen all kinds of growth and aggressive sectors, unique sectors performing very well. People were piling into the small caps and these highly leveraged kind of sectors or stocks, and that is usually a sign that we're getting close.
I think it's kind of like a complacency move. People moving in thinking we're starting another big run, as you just mentioned uh Nicole, but I actually believe it's a double top, and the the selling days that we have in the stock market, whether it's large caps or small caps, is heavy volume. That's telling us people are dumping shares.
Institutions are unloading their portfolios when we get up near highs, like we saw in the S&P 500, it poked to nominal new highs last week, and then big selling hit, huge volume. So, we're seeing distribution selling by big institutions, I think, lightening their portfolio, dumping shares into the hands of the average investor to try to trim their expenses or trim their risk in the markets.
And I always look at the stock market in two different views. Either you're in a rising or falling tide, like the ocean. A rising tide, you can pretty much throw a dart at stocks, and it should go up. And uh and then right now, we're still in a rising tide environment. And so, right now, it's still kind of look to buy the dip mentality for the next potential month or two.
The stock market has dipped into oversold territory in the past uh today and our last trading session. We saw some panic selling on the VIX, panic selling volume flows on the New York Stock Exchange. When these line up, they usually signal a short-term bottom. And today's volatility, where we we saw a low in the price of the S&P 500, it broke a low from a week ago, flushing out the stops.
We saw the the orders get run on the intraday charts, and now the market's trying to recover and kind of shake people up. It's just a buck within this bull market still, and I think we're going to go higher for another couple of weeks. Right. But long term, you are are bearish. In the meantime, we're waiting on Nvidia this week, and that could be a catalyst one way or the other.
It sounds like on the big up days, you're implying that people should probably take some profits. But on the big swings to the downside, do you recommend buying? I don't know. I mean, Nvidia really could be a a catalyst for tech in particular. There's a lot lined up on Nvidia. Any advice for this week in particular, Chris?
Yeah, I think you need to have a game plan. I mean, we follow the trends. I'm a pure technical trader. So, if the trend is up on multiple time frames, we'll hold an asset, like equities or Nvidia or whatever it may be. If the trends are down, we don't want to hold it. Uh so, we really need to see how this is going to unfold.
The S&P 500, from a long-term perspective, is still in a bull market. On a short-term perspective, it's neutral to bullish. So, it is still trending higher, uh but it's running out of steam here. It is struggling. It needs to find find some power here to pop and push higher. Um so, overall, you need to have an exit strategy.
If things start to roll over, and we get some more big selling, if it is a broad market sell-off, and we see a lot go down, uh trimming profits, uh having a stop in place, getting out of the markets is not a bad idea. Cuz if this market does start to fall, I think it could fall fairly quickly. And you need to protect your capital number one.
We're in a difficult market environment. Uh add in the new president, and and Elon adds a lot of volatility. So, you're better to protect your capital than you are to try and swing for the fences and think there's easy money. This market is not an easy money market right now. It is all over the place.
What's hot one week is not hot the next week, and you really have to be um uh you have your head on a swivel and manage those positions. Chris from Eulens, great to see you. Thank you very much, founder and chief investment officer of The Technical Traders. Thank you, Chris.
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