저자: GeraldMarkwith · 외국인
요약 보기
Jim Cramer와 Michael Burry의 팔란티어(PLTR) 상반된 의견을 비교. Cramer는 40% 상승 여력을 주장(매수), Burry는 공매도 중이라고 함. 발표자는 밸류에이션이 매우 높지만(선행PER 94, PSR 70) 순이익·매출 성장이 강하다고 설명. 특정 방향 확신은 제시하지 않고 개인 투자자의 장단기 관점과 다수 의견을 점검하라는 교육적 결론.
다듬은 글
Hi and welcome back to the channel. On today's video, we're going to talk about Palunteer. We have two distinct recommendations, opposite direction. Jim Kramer says, "This stock, Palunteer, can go up another 40%." Michael Bur, a hedge fund manager, says, "Not so fast. It's definitely a short." So, let's talk about how you make decisions about any stock based on what's being recommended in the public.
Hi, I'm Gerald Markwith. I'm a certified financial planner. Been in the industry about 30 years. And we dedicate this channel to all investors, especially those 50 and under for things you should have learned in high school and college, but for whatever reason, they never got around to doing it. So let's talk about today's issue.
Palunteer is a major AI software company gets a lot of defense contracts as well as public companies who want them to interface the AI they offer their software with their company to streamline it. They've been growing quite fast and they're led by a CEO Dr. Alex Cart. Now, Palunteer is one of the premier companies on the exchanges and we have two distinct points of view that we want to look at.
Jim Kramer that you know from CNBC recently came out and said this is definitely a buy. You're looking at a big gain here, 40% gain on the stock, which is around $180 a share. Michael Bur famous for the big short where he shorted the market prior to 2008 and the big housing crisis that developed and made a lot of money on that.
He says no Palunteer is a sell and he is shorted the stock. Who are you going to believe? And what should you do whenever you're evaluating a company and you listen to the pros and cons of what's being discussed? So let's get into this. First of all, let's look at the metrics of pounds here. And you'll see those numbers are quite large.
This company is approaching half a trillion dollars in value. In fact, the CEO Karp has says he thinks it's a trillion dollar company. And he's, you know, saying that quite quite loudly. You'll see here that the forward price earnings ratio is 94. A very very high number. price to sales at 70 extremely high.
All of these metrics are high no matter how you look at it. Now, if you look closely at this chart, you'll see that net income is up almost 300%, revenues been growing almost 80%. And of course, all the other margins that you see are doing quite well. Analysts generally give it a buy rating. And of course, their price target, as you see on here, is about $197.
But how do you make a determination who's right, Jim Kramer or Michael Bur or any other analyst or hedge fund manager you might see on the financial news networks? You know, that's where things get a little interesting. The first thing you might consider is how well have both of these hedge fund managers done?
Now, in the case of Jim Kramer, if you look at his track record, especially in the early part of the 2000s, his fund trailed the S&P 500 pretty significantly, roughly earning a little over 4% a year versus almost 7 and a half% for the markets. That doesn't mean a whole lot though because almost 80% of all money managers can't beat the S&P 500.
So, should that be a disqualifying thing for Mr. Kramer? Maybe. But again, he does have a following when it comes to things like this. On the other hand, Michael Bur has been um right out in front by saying that he was shorting the stock on Palunteer. He said the metrics are just way too high and certainly there's going to be an event in the market that will drive the price lower and of course he wants to benefit from that lower price.
Now he did make a very good call in 2008. That's of course how he got famous and of course even a movie was made around this. But does that mean that you should believe him as well? In other words, who's the expert when it comes to evaluating a stock? Let's diverge a little bit and talk about what an expert really is.
An expert does have knowledge of a particular type that you might not have. They've been through maybe markets up and down. They have experience. They know what to do. At least they you believe they know what to do in certain circumstances. Now, are experts always right? Well, the short answer is no.
Can they make good calls? Absolutely. But how are you going to determine who's correct here, Jim Kramer or Michael Bur? It's not an easy thing to figure out. In fact, when you look at what's going on here, you might say, "Well, they both might be right. It may be the stock goes down and Michael Bur makes money and then it goes shooting right back up." And Jim Kramer's correct.
This is very hard for investors to figure out what to do. Now, if you're a long-term investor, you want to think about that. Think about whether or not you even care what they think. You may say, "If it goes down, I'm just going to buy more." So, I don't care if Michael Bur is correct or not. Or if it goes higher, as Jim Krenner would say, 40%, you're quite happy.
It might take a little bit of money off the table. So, a long-term investor looks at that and says, "Well, there may be opportunities in the price down the road, but I really don't care which one of them is right, at least at the moment." So, what actually is going on here? What is the solution? Well, if we use AAM's razor, which we've talked about in other programs, the really short answer between their two arguments goes something like this.
And Jim Kramer would say, "Yes, the numbers that you see here, the metrics are very high relative to other stocks and probably historically high, but the CEO has pointed out they're going to grow even faster than what you see here, and therefore they're going to make a whole lot more money probably within the next year or so." So, he's recommending the stock will go higher because the metrics will adjust themselves for the higher earnings that he sees.
Michael Bur of course using that same idea says yeah the metrics are high and they're unsustainable because it only takes one event whether it be directly with Palunteer or the markets in general to drive that price down and therefore he makes money. So he's saying you want to stay away for something that's such high growth.
What if we go into a recession? He says what if anything should happen? Alanteer could get hurt along with other tech stocks and he's gonna look well very good like a genius. So how are you as the investor is supposed to figure out anything from the parties that you're looking at? Now, of course, like we said, you can look at their track records, but you could also look at other analysts and other rating services on Palunteer and see what they say and why they say it.
Just because uh somebody says it's a buy or a sell, you want to get to understand their reasoning behind this. Certainly, Palunteer has been a very good company, a very good stock to hold uh in the short term. Is it going to become a trillion dollar company? Is it going to double basically in the value it's at today?
Maybe. But how long would that take? And is that something you're willing to wait on? And if so, how long are you willing to wait? Now, this dilemma of what to do as a private investor is probably best summed up by one of the richest men in history, King Solomon, who recommends that you have several counselors.
In other words, don't just look one or two, but try to find as many people as possible that are analyzing the company and listen to what they have to say and collectively look at the wisdom, if you want to call it that, of these experts. By the way, just because they're experts and they have knowledge doesn't mean that, like I said, they're always right.
Here's an example. The Federal Reserve has almost 400 PhDs in economics on their staff. That doesn't make the Federal Reserve always right. Certainly, they have very smart people. And I will tell you on Wall Street, there are extremely intelligent people. You're going against some of the best in the business, but that doesn't mean that they can't be wrong at any given moment in time.
And so, you're kind of stuck a little bit as as to what to do. But if you have many counselors, well, that kind of helps a little bit. You definitely want to hear the pro and the con of what you should do. And figure out which argument sounds more likely to you. Is the stock too high? Will it come down?
Well, stocks always go up and down, but is it going to go down to the degree that Michael Bur says? Stocks also can go quite high. Is 40% too high as Jim Kramer is suggesting? Maybe we don't know. But what you want to do is evaluate as best you can a direction of what you think the company and the stock will do.
Let's put this in a different realm if you will. Say for instance, you go to the doctors and you get a diagnosis and you don't really think the diagnosis is all that great. So you say, I want to go get a second opinion. So you go to another doctor who gives you a totally different opinion, a maybe even a better diagnosis.
says, "You know, this isn't as bad as your first doctor had said." Which one are you going to believe? Which one of those doctors is the expert, if you will? Well, generally speaking, especially if you look in the stock market, most people are very positive when it comes to investments. You can tell this by looking at what they call the call put ratio.
Most retail investors will buy calls, call options, expecting the price of a stock to go up. They rarely will do put options because again, that's a negative bias and they're fairly sure that the markets will go up than it will over time. But again, you can see that the retail group is definitely more bullish when it comes to any stock or any investment.
Again, you want to be careful how you evaluate a stock. You also want to be careful that you don't make the evaluation strictly on a messenger. Let me give you an example. Jesus had a quote here which I'll put up about not resisting evil. Now, you might say, "Well, that's interesting." But when you see the name Jesus saying it, you might say, "Well, you know, I'm not a religious person.
I don't I don't think I believe Jesus because he's he's giving us a religious idea. And so I'm going to immediately dismiss what he says. Are you sure? About 400 years prior, Plato came out and said essentially the thing same thing. Don't resist evil. Would you believe Plato? He's not a religious person.
He's a philosopher. So the idea of making your investment choices based on the messenger, it can be a dangerous one. You can say, "Well, I don't like Jim Kramer because he's been wrong here or here or here and here, or Michael Bur's always been right," which is certainly not a true statement. So you want to be careful that when you're evaluating a company and where the information is coming from, that you don't look at the messenger only and say, "Well, I don't like the messenger.
um their message might be correct but I don't like that person so I'm not going to invest as an example Tesla many years ago started by Elon Musk now you may think Elon Musk was a great person a great CEO and you might have invested in Tesla on that basis and you would have done over a long period of time quite well on the other hand you might have thought Elon Musk was way out there in other words he was saying things that would never happen, but they did.
Again, be careful how you evaluate your investments based on who's saying it. Just because you don't happen to like the messenger doesn't mean the message is wrong. And that's where, of course, you as the investor have to make a decision. Which side of the argument looks the strongest? Now, when it comes to Palunteer and looking at it, it's really kind of a a half full half empty sort of an argument.
You could argue successfully on both sides of of the argument here. It's too expensive. It's too high. It's got to come down at some point. Gravity always takes things down, as it were. On the other hand, it might even go higher. We don't know how much higher. Likewise, you want to look at the arguments and say, does one argument seem well fairly straightforward?
Whereas the other one a very complicated our argument. If this happens, that happens, this might occur, that might occur. Anything might happen. But what you want to zero in on is where's the consensus? again doesn't make the consensus correct, but it does mean that you have a lot of company in the boat on where you're at.
As we've talked about before, Warren Buffett's f famous comment that if everyone's rushing to one side of the boat that you probably should go to the other side where it's less likely. You might want to take the road less traveled as they say. That may be an effective way to looking at it. Although it's very contrarian.
hard to be a contrarian if the market keeps going higher and higher. But these are all ideas for you to look at. I can't tell you whether Palunteer is going higher or lower, whether it's going to go up 40% or Michael Bird's correct and it's going to crash way down and he's going to make a lot of money.
It could very well happen. But when it comes down to investments, you have to decide, are you a long-term or short-term investor? If you're long-term, you take advantage of dips. You hold on for a long period of time, and you let the company grow at the pace that you think is appropriate. Likewise, if you're short-term, this argument between Michael Bur and Jim Kramer, it's a little more interesting because if you're just trying to get in and out for a profit, you have to decide which one of them makes the better story.
So, I want you to consider your ideas around an expert and whether or not they are correct or not. I can recall a client once calling me and saying, "Jerry, I need your uh expertise on what I should do because you're the expert." Okay. As an expert, I would say do XYZ. But another counselor or adviser might say, "No, looking at your situation, you should do the opposite." Again, it's worthwhile to consider all voices in the room, so to speak, and seek out those kind of people both for your argument and against it, to see what might develop.
I hope you find this content important and valuable. I hope you like and subscribe and share this with others because investing is a very difficult thing. It can be very emotional. Yes, you can look at the numbers like we did here at Palanteer, but in the end, holding a stock can be a very emotional experience both when you gain money and lose it.
And so take your time, analyze the company, the arguments for and against it before making any decision on whether to invest or not. I'm going to leave you with this final quote. To invest or not to invest, that is the question. Have a great day.
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