저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
미국은 14년간 본격적 약세장이 없었고 이는 역사상 유례없는 기간이다. 인플레이션과 금리 재상승, 초보 투자자 유입은 과거 고점 징후와 유사하다. 정부부채와 과잉 통화 발행은 문제를 키울 것이다. 주식과 채권은 버블 수준이며 원자재(특히 은)만 상대적으로 싸다. 1929년, 니프티50 사례처럼 시장 과열에 경계하고 자신이 아는 분야에만 투자하라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
okay as you know it's been what 14 years since we had a serious bare Market in the United States and I'll use United States since it's the largest market and that has never happened in American history we've never had such a long period without serious economic and financial problems so whatever is happening we're getting towards the end uh we see some of the signs inflation is rising again interest rates are rising again we see new entries coming into the new investors coming into the market and they call up their friends and say I've discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's fun and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money so all the signs that the world has seen many times before are happening again I don't know how much longer this will go on but I do see worrying signs with the markets and for the world economy well it always has been able to I mean if nothing else a Federal Reserve can just print more money and they'll buy them up I mean I'm not suggesting this is good but that's the way at the moment anyway the system still works and the US can print and spend and borrow and spend that will someday come to an end or someday people will be on TV screaming about it but not yet but when when you see it K when you see on the evening news that the man in the street is worried about all the government debt and the interest rates are going higher and higher and the guys are saying I don't care I'm not going to borrow any I'm not going to blend them any more money then you'll know the crisis is here there's gigantic amounts of off balance sheet debt in the US which will surpass I mean maybe Japan has a lot of off balance sheet de too but to answer your question yes this worries me I mean the bank of Japan every day the guy goes to the goes to work and prints money he prints more money and prints as much as fast as he can he's a good Japanese bureaucrat he does what he's supposed to and this is going to lead to many many problems not just in Japan not just in the US everywhere Kai you're in Germany even the Germans have problems now there are German cities that have big debt problems Germany my gosh in my lifetime that Germany was the Paragon of virtue not anymore well as I look around the world Kai I see that stocks in most countries either are or have been at an alltime high or near making making new highs bonds and bonds have never been this high in the history of the world so bonds are certainly a bubble though what's left I property yes you can invest in property and in some places it's great but many property markets New Zealand Korea I mean there many property bubbles going on around the world that really only leaves Commodities that are cheap I mean silver is down 60% from its all-time high sugar down more than 60% so the only asset class that I see where they're really cheap entities are Commodities that doesn't mean you can't lose money if you buy them but that's the only place I see on a historic basis cheap prices I guess us stock prices make me unhappy to use your words because they're there bubbles developing I mean Apple goes up every day you know that's been a great country company that does not mean it's going to be a great stock forever well since we're talking about the markets most Waring on are all the new entries and they're Hyster developing Hysteria is taking place these are signs that happen at the top of markets it's happened many times if you haven't experienced it you might have read about it and that's what's worrying me probably the most because markets can go up and down and do all sorts of strange things but eventually it's the investors who call the tune and if we have a lot of speculative new and spective uneducated or inexperienced I guess is a better word in experienced investors it worries me doesn't make sense to me I've seen this movie before not the first time I've been to this Rodeo you know there were back once upon a time there were in the market there were the nifty50 and the wisdom was you buy these 50 companies you don't ever have to worry about the stocks just buy them and forget them you know how that wound up uh but this has happened often in history in the 20s is Radio Corp of America I mean m radio was new and it was a gigantic stock stock went straight through the roof always every week every day I mean 1929 came along and ended that story but I mean this has happened before Kai uh all these young I should say not young but inexperienced investors coming in and talking about how easy it is it's not the first rodeo I don't the market is not tell I mean the market I hope will tell me when to buy it because someday I'm going to see everybody's negative on Silver and talk about how it always goes down and blah blah blah if that happens that the market will tell me to buy but silver is used in solar energy as you well know and many other things uh I'm not sure when I will buy or what the catalst will be I just hope I'm smart enough to buy it before it skyrockets again well the most important information for any investor is don't listen to the TV don't listen to the radio or the newspaper just invest only in what you yourself know a lot about now and everybody watching this knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or something and that's where you become a successful investor stay with what you know but people will tell you gu oh but that's boring be boring be boring and invest in what you you will see major changes before I will because you look at it every day it's your passion and that's how you become a successful investor don't listen to Hot Tips a very strong word of advis hi everybody wants to be re Rich this week me too but don't listen to Hot Tips Jim Rogers gives a candid and cautionary reflection on the current state of financial markets he starts by highlighting a significant statistic it's been 14 years since the last serious bare Market in the United States which is unprecedented in American history this sets the stage for a discussion about the signs pointing towards an imminent downturn Jim Rogers notes the Resurgence of inflation and Rising interest rates as key indicators there's a concern about new inexperienced investors entering the market driven by excitement rather than knowledge this influx often precedes Market piece historically leading to speculative Bubbles and then Jim delves into broader economic issues such as Government debt levels and the potential consequences of excessive money printing the speaker draws parallels to historical Market collapses like the nifty50 in the 1970s and the 1929 crash cautioning against complacency amidst Market exuberance he identifies Commodities as possibly the only undervalued asset class contrasting with overinflated stock and bond markets the emphasis on investor education and staying within one's expertise emerges as a key takeaway advice grounded in experience and skepticism towards media-driven hype overall Jim Rogers provides a sobering perspective on the current market Euphoria suggesting a potential downturn Looms on the horizon due to unsustainable market conditions and speculative Behavior
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