저자: Alex · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 비트코인이 피터 시프의 '버블·가치없음' 주장보다 금보다 낫다고 주장하며, 2017년 3월 당시 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 제시하지 않음. 비트코인 급등 원인: 중국 자본 유출(연간 500~600억 달러 규모) 우회 수단으로 위안화→비트코인→달러 경로 사용, 위안화 약세, 중국인의 투기 성향이 상승 요인으로 제시됨. 단기 하락 원인: 위안화 2.5% 반등(정부 개입 추정)과 중국 정부의 거래소 규제 시사 발언이 하락을 유발. 가격은 1,100달러대에서 800달러 중반까지 하락 후 900달러 이상으로 회복. 시장 규모·변동성: 시가총액 약 146억 달러(중형주 수준)로 변동성이 큼. 다만 과거 대비 변동성 감소 가능성 언급. 피터 시프 비판: 비트코인을 튤립 버블·가치없는 것이라 주장하나, 그는 금 판매 수수료로 편향되어 있다고 지적. 시프가 단기 매도 타이밍은 맞았다고 인정. 보안·기술 주장: 트레저(오프라인 하드월렛, 99달러)로 개인키 보관 시 해킹·정부 압수 위험이 낮다고 주장. 금은 보관비용과 1933년 FDR 압수 사례가 불리하다고 지적. 공급·수요 비교: 비트코인 발행 상한 2,100만 개로 공급 고정, 금은 가격 상승 시 채굴 증가와 장신구·산업 수요 변동으로 불리하다고 주장. 장기 견해: 금은 1980년 700달러 고점 후 2007년에야 회복된 장기 손실 사례를 들며, 비트코인은 사용 확대에 따른 장기 가치 상승 가능성을 제시. 단, 백만장자 보장 같은 투자 권유는 부인. 리스크: 51% 공격 가능성은 낮다고 평가하나, 신뢰 하락 시 가격 하락 가능성 언급. 채굴풀 집중이 유일한 경로라고 설명. 출연자 전망: 단기 방향 명시 없음, 장기적으로 비트코인 가치 저장 수단으로서 긍정적 견해.
다듬은 글
hi my name is Alex and I'm an investor who has this YouTube channel where I talk about finance and economics in this video I'm going to be talking about Bitcoin Bitcoin has a recent B of volatility lately so I'm going be talking about that and I'm going to be talking about why Pier shift is completely wrong in his um in his analysis of Bitcoin I watch his his podcast and he talks about Bitcoin in his past two podcasts and he's just been completely wrong I am a big fan of Peter shiff so this is coming from love so as I mentioned Bitcoin has been in the news because it hit an all-time high on some of the exchanges last week and the reason why that happened is because there's Chinese investors who want to get out of the uan and in order to do that they changed their yuan into Bitcoin and then they change the Bitcoin into dollars so they want to get out of the uan and it's not easy to get out because there's Capital controls there's about 50 to 60 billion dollars in outflows out of China because the Chinese economy is not doing well their GDP growth has been slowing and there's there's a lot of debt in their state sponsored entities and so their economy is weak their yuan is actually declining versus the dollar that's another reason why Bitcoin has been increasing because the Ian has been devaluing so those are some of the reasons why Bitcoin has been going up last year if you look at there's a website um that shows the amount of trading that's in Bitcoin in O currencies and it's above 95% with the Chinese Yan so you know that's what's driving it another possibility is speculation China is known for speculation China has maau where there's which is the number one gambling site and then also there's been speculation in stocks real estate Commodities so they the Chinese people love to speculate so that might be part of it they see Bitcoin going up and they speculate more in it the reason why it went down was twofold it went down from about 1,100 down to the mid 800s and the reason why it went down is twofold one is because the Chinese Yuan it increased 2.5% on the offshore Hong Kong exchange which was a high amount the reason why it increased might be because of interference with the government the government saw the Yuan constantly being devalued so it stepped into the market and boosted the price and since all the Traders were leaning short it really had a big boost on the price for a couple days the second reason why Bitcoin went down is because China Chinese government has been met with a bunch of the leaders of the Bitcoin exchanges and they kind of were were saying we might crack down on you a little bit so that cut the speculation I don't think that they're going to be able to crack down on bitcoin too much especially since they want to be free market uh more free market country but that kind of language knocked the price down governments love to do this China did did great with Ian and then it did with Bitcoin it's kind of like a forward guidance in a sense or where they talk the price down we saw the same thing with um OPEC where they would talk about possibly cutting oil prices and oil prices would go up on that where they just talk and it affects price so that's why Bitcoin went down now I'm going to get into why Peter shiff is completely wrong about Bitcoin so Peter Schiff hasn't really been talking too much about Bitcoin in his entire life he has a podcast that I listen to and I enjoy his podcast but in the past two podcasts he's talked about Bitcoin and he talked about it going up so much and that it might be a good time to sell it well he was actually pretty correct on the timing of selling it but he he is wrong on the sentiment he thinks that Bitcoin is a bubble like the Tulip bubble he thinks there's nothing backing it and it's completely uh a farce and he thinks that you have to invest in gold and he's biased because he sells his gold through gold money he he makes the commission on that so I understand he's biased but being against Bitcoin is completely wrong and he talked about how he was right how Bitcoin did go down about $200 but that doesn't mean anything just because it went up too fast and coming back down doesn't mean the whole thing is a vars it's just volatility that's happening for a new currency the market cap of Bitcoin is a$ 14.6 billion so it's like a midcap company and if you see a midcap stock that reports bad earnings it could go down quickly now Bitcoin went down about 25% at one point but you know it rebounded back above $900 it seems to be a little bit less volatile than last time when it went to its all-time record high it went even in um 2013 it increased in even shorter period of time and decreased faster so it looks like the volatility could be declining a little bit but getting into Bitcoin peer ship doesn't understand the technology in Bitcoin and how you could use it properly the the big difference between Bitcoin and gold is that Bitcoin is more secure than gold actually and the reason for that is because you have to store your gold somewhere and in order to secure it you have to pay somebody so that's one level also in 1933 FDR confiscated gold that's another point to take into consideration with Bitcoin you could secure it on a hard hard wallet which is not connected to the internet called treaser it's a open source project that only cost $99 and you could store all your Bitcoin private keys and if that's stolen nobody could get into it because it doesn't even use a password it's called a neonic code which is which it has 12 18 or 24 words and those words are used as a password so what what a hacking hacking people do is they do key logging where they can hack new password that way so that is not able to be hacked with with um this type of password that treasure uses so you don't have to store you don't have to pay anybody to store it and the government can't um collect your Bitcoin the way it collected gold in the past because they don't even know you have it because it's Anonymous so the government can't get it from you it's not possible be possible to be stolen and um Peter Shi was saying oh you can't use those Bitcoin you could actually use Bitcoin in your coinbase wallet you could transfer it from your treasure to your coinbase wallet your digital wallet and you could use it that way uh Peters ship is talking about his gold money program that he's using it's kind of outdated the way I look at it it he's using gold as a debit card but you're still relying on gold money to work and I looked at the reviews on goldmoney.com uh reviews and they were saying that sometimes the website doesn't work so you're relying on the website to work I think that coinbase would be more reliable especially since there's so much competition there's coinbase Circle and all these companies want to make good on their promises to have a secure hot wallet because it's connected to the internet as a hot wallet they want to be secure because of what happened with Mal gox a few years ago which was um hacked and they lost the Bitcoin so I think I would rely more on these digital wallets than uh gold money I'm not saying gold is not a good investment to secure your value but I think that Bitcoin has a lot of advantages that Peters ship doesn't like to talk about because he doesn't make commission on bitcoin and he makes a commission on gold another big point about about gold and how Bitcoin is better than gold is that when gold prices go up more gold is mined Bitcoin will be 21 million unless enough people vote to um fork or make a change in the code of the Bitcoin and make more than 21 million but in all likelihood they wouldn't people using Bitcoin wouldn't vote to use more than 21 million they're going to keep the 21 million so it's very likely that 21 million is the amount of Bitcoin that's going to be available while gold varies in the amount I know that there's only a certain amount of gold in the world but more gold is mined when the price goes up so that changes things another factor is that gold is used for jewelry and Industrial demand while somebody who says gold is so great would say oh it's it has a value too but I think that's a negative because um the demand for gold is changed by Styles in jewelry maybe people don't want gold they want Platinum maybe they want silver gold W these be used but the amount of demand changes based on the Styles the industrial demand changes too because maybe a company isn't e gold for specific industrial demand or the comp or the industry changes what they want to use there's a lot of different factors that go into and that changes the demand for gold while Bitcoin is only going to be changed by people's demand to use it as a currency I have two more points one is that people people say people in Gold say that oh Bitcoin goes up and down too much but gold goes up and down a lot too gold has done nothing in in previous decades that had had done nothing for a while in fact in about 1980 gold hit $700 and then it took all the way until 2007 to get back to $700 so that's longterm loss of value while Bitcoin has corrected really quickly it's also rebounded at that as more people use the technology and get involved with Bitcoin so I think that in terms of usage that's a long-term Trend which could benefit the price of Bitcoin I'm not necessarily advocating using Bitcoin buying all this Bitcoin to be a millionaire in the future I but I think it's a great store of value and it has Advantage as over gold one other point I want to make is the 51% attack on bitcoin which could which would be able to hurt Bitcoin that would be is if 51% control of the hash rate of Bitcoin was controlled by one entity then they could do two things they could reverse transactions and they could stop transactions and that could hurt the confidence in Bitcoin and people might take their money out of Bitcoin and the price would go down even though this 51% attack wouldn't necessarily destroy it in any way necessarily but it could um hurt confidence and I think that the only way um 51% would control the hash rate is if they were in a mining pool and Mining pool is a group of miners that mine Bitcoin by solving the um formula to get a transactions approved so I think that mining pools is the only way for 51% attack to possibly happen however if I was in a mining pool and I saw it coming close to 51% I would get out of that mining pool and just go in a different mining pool what would be the difference um I wouldn't want to risk the Bitcoins that I mined and because all the miners have Bitcoin they don't want the system to fail they don't want to come close to 51% so they should just go into a different mine the advantages of mining one of them is a more consistent payout and economies of scale so there's some advantages to be in in a mining pool instead of mining on your own but you could just go into a different pool or another pool could compete with them I don't think that a 51% attack is likely this is just some of the my thoughts on why Peter shiff is wrong about Bitcoin a lot of it is age he's he's kind of old he's not up on the new technology and he's not aware of digital uh of hard wallets like treasure that really make Bitcoin very secure and easy to use and there are constantly people developing with Bitcoin to make it better and more accessible it it's already easily divisible it's already easy to hold it it already will maintain its value because it's only 21 million created there are a lot of advantages to bitcoin but there's but the it's still growing and it's still in its early stages and peers ship doesn't understand that this was kind of a video that I made without having any notes so see if you like that if you don't like it then I'll have to make notes but uh thanks for watching please subscribe if you like the video and that's it really peace
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