저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 금값은 단기적으로 하락했지만 Schiff는 인플레이션 상승과 실질금리 하락으로 2017년 금이 오를 것이라고 본다. 금 전망: 대선 후 금은 약 11% 하락했고 Trader Tim Knight는 2017년이 금에 비참한 해가 될 것이라 봤으나 Schiff는 이를 틀렸다고 반박한다. 높은 인플레이션은 금에 긍정적이며 실질금리가 떨어지면 금이 강세를 보인다고 주장한다. 2017년 말 강세 마감을 예상하며 다음 해에 큰 상승이 있을 것으로 본다. 과거 사례: 부시 시기 그린스펀 인상기에 금은 300달러에서 1,000달러로, 1970년대에는 35달러에서 850달러로 올랐다고 설명했다. 경기 전망: 2017년 GDP 성장률은 2% 미만, 운이 좋아야 2% 수준이며 트럼프 임기 초 경기침체 가능성도 있다고 본다. 연준은 경기에 자신이 없어 금리를 소폭만 올렸다고 해석한다. 금리·부동산·자동차: 30년 고정모기지 금리는 대선 후 3.5%에서 4.5%로 올랐고 곧 5~6%도 가능하다. 주택소유율은 60년 저점 부근이며 주택 가격은 하락해 압류가 늘 것으로 본다. 자동차 시장은 서브프라임 거품이며 조정이 이미 진행 중이라고 주장한다. 주식·트럼프: 대선 직후 주식 선물은 800포인트 하락했다가 반등했지만 주식시장은 과평가된 거품이다. 감세와 규제완화는 거품을 정당화하지 못하며 금리 상승이 주가를 끌어내릴 것이다. 트럼프 정책으로 문제를 해결할 수 없고 거품은 터질 수밖에 없다고 본다. 리스크: 재정적자를 메우려면 연준의 추가 완화가 필요하지만 그러면 문제가 더 커진다는 점을 지적한다.
다듬은 글
well no surprise that gold has moved lower in the wake of a Fed interest rate hike but what may be concerning even more concerning for gold investors out there is that the precious metal is down 11% since the presidential election this as the FED takes a more hawkish stance on lifting interest rates in 2017 it's prompting analysts out there to turn bearish on the commodity altogether and that includes Trader Tim Knight who said recently that he believes it's going to be a miserable 2017 for the yellow medal it's just about the only asset that's reliably down every day so does he have a point I toss that question to europacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff a known gold bull here's his take not really I mean I think uh you know he's completely wrong but I like to see that negativity out there I mean gold has gone down quite a bit since the election but Ian if you go back over the last 15 years uh Gold's had a pretty good track record and it's interesting that the reason that so many people have turned bearish on gold is because they believe that we're going to have more inflation under Donald Trump that we're going to have larger deficits as a result of uh tax cuts and increased government spending and that because of the higher inflation the FED is going to get more aggressive and raise interest rates and somehow the increase in interest rates is what's going to be bad for gold this is ridiculous ulous higher inflation is good for gold and even if the FED is raising rates slightly even if it manages the three hikes that people think are coming uh next year and remember they were telegraphing four hikes this year and they only gave us one in December and they're actually the FED is actually less optimistic on the economy now than they were a year ago if you look at their GDP forecasts I even doubt we're going to get those hikes but even if we do I think inflation is going to rise much faster than interest rates and so real interest rates are going to fall and that's when gold shines brightest when you have inflation that is not being fought aggressively like during the bush term when Greenspan was raising rates every quarter every time they met and gold prices went from under 300 to 1,000 or if you go back to the 1970s when the Fed was behind the curve on inflation and gold went from 350 to $850 or from $35 an ounce to $850 while the Fed was raising rates so I think the idea that higher inflation is bad for gold is preposterous I think they're right we're going to get more inflation but it's not a negative for gold it's a huge positive and the markets were wrong about gold at the end of last year they sold it off when the FED raised raised rates it bottomed out in January and then had a huge run I think we're going to have another big run next year but I think next year we're going to finish the year strong as opposed to have this Trump related sell off but a lot of people look at this Peter and they say just because you know the FED wrongly predicted four hikes we only got one hike just because that didn't work out doesn't mean that that's what we're going to see in 2017 they would argue we're on to New Times they're looking at the data out there they're looking at GDP showing you know solid growth over 3% they're looking at corporate profits continuing to rebound uh so how can we confidently buy into the theory that we are on to a gold will run or do you not necessarily think that's the case anymore well first of all GDP growth for this year is going to end up below 2% and the FED is only forecasting 2.1 for next year and I think they're too optimistic so we're not getting 3% we'll be lucky if we get 2% we may not even get that we could be on the cusp of a recession right now it wouldn't surprise me to have a recession early in the first year of the Trump term and I think the reason that the Fed waited until December to raise rates by a quarter is because in contrast to their claims to have confidence in the economy they have no confidence in the economy that's why they waited so long and that's why they raised interest rates so little remember when Allan Greenspan cut interest rates to 1% uh in the aftermath of the uh Tech bubble bursting and September 11th he brought interest rates to 1% because he was so worried about the economy now the FED is supposedly so confident and um they can't even raise interest rates above a half uh this is a complete bubble that the FED has blown you know uh Trump was right when he was a candidate it's a big fat ugly bubble it's even bigger fatter and uglier now and it's not just the stock market and by the way the bond market bubble has already burst and so interest rates are rising and that is going to compound the problems for an already weakening economy so if the economy was weak last year it's going to be even weaker next year now you've expressed some concern in the past for the impact of a Fed rate hike on the housing and auto sectors more specifically what do you see as the vulnerability there well these these sectors are completely dependent of cheap money I mean people buy houses based on their monthly mortgage payment and fixed rate mortgages the 30-year fixed rate has basically gone from about 3 and a half% when Trump was elected to 45% now it can be over 5% by the time he's inaugurated and it can EAS IL be close to Six uh you know next year I mean nobody can afford these rates we already have home ownership near a 60-year low because people can't afford the low rates we had obviously they're not going to be able to afford the higher rates that we have now or the rates that we're getting in the future so you're going to see a drop there you're going to see a complete end to the refi market so that Lifeline is gone people were able to rely on lowering their payments with refi nobody can do that anymore and I think now with the higher cost to borrow money to buy houses real estate prices are going to start to fall so that means more foreclosures again so that's a problem and the auto bubble this has all been about 0% down letting people roll the negative equity in their trade inss into an even bigger loan with cheap money it's been about leases and extending the payments this is a huge subprime bubble and the error is already coming out of that so all the things the government propped up with cheap money are going to topple as you take the cheap money away okay when I interviewed do back on Election Day you talked about how Traders had decided a trump win was bad for stocks good for gold that was certainly the consensus at the time but as we know the opposite has turned out to be true investors are are seemingly bullish on a trump economy so what what are your thoughts there because it sounds to me that you're you're bearish on the economy but you do seem to be a little bit more upbeat about Trump can you be bullish on Trump bearish on the economy where do you stand well first of all that was the original reaction right I mean as soon Soon As Trump won uh the stock fatures were down what whatever 800 points gold was up 60 bucks so that knee-jerk reaction was there but if you remember I said I didn't understand why people thought that Trump was worse for the stock market than Clinton because I said Trump is promising things that would normally be good for the stock market like less regulation and lower taxes but the problem is the stock market is already overvalued it's a bubble and so just because we're going to get some tax cuts and Regulatory relief doesn't undo that bubble I mean it helps but it's not going to justify the inflated valuations and of course as interest rates go up that automatically brings stock values down but I think it's also interesting that the same stock traders that were so worried about what would happen to the market if Trump Won dominity Won now they just started buying because all they want to do is justify a move up believe me had Clinton won they would have said oh we dodged the bullet let's buy stocks you know we dodged Trump you know this Market is feeding on itself you know it's like a horse with a bit in its mouth and it keeps on going people are ignoring that the things that they think are going to happen are impossible they think oh now we're going to get fiscal stimulus so we don't need monetary stimulus you know if we get the fiscal stimulus we need monetary stimulus more than ever to make it possible there is no way to finance these deficits unless the FED steps up and does it now of course this is a mistake they shouldn't do it that's why we're in so much trouble but I don't think there's any way Trump can fix these problems they are unfixable we can't stop the bubble from popping nor should we try you know Trump was elected and I was saying I thought he would get elected because the economy is so messed up
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