Michael Burry’s New Shocking Prediction: The Bear Market Will Continue into 2023

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결론: 마이클 버리는 인플레이션 장기화와 경기침체로 주식시장 추가 하락을 예상하며, 미국 대형주 과대평가와 비트코인 버블을 경계하고 해외(일본 등) 저평가 종목을 대안으로 본다. 버리의 시장 진단: 미국 증시는 1920년대식 투기, 1990년대식 과대평가, 1970년대식 지정학·경제 위기가 동시에 나타나는 상태라고 봤다. 2022년 1월 고점 이후 S&P500 급락을 언급하며 추가 하락을 예상했다. 하락 근거와 목표: 2022년 8월 12일 베어마켓 랠리가 거의 끝났다고 경고했고, 이후 시장이 약 17% 하락했다고 언급했다. 다음 지지선으로 나스닥 7000, 다우 10000을 제시했다. 인플레이션·경기 전망: 재고 증가로 물가가 일시 하락한 뒤 장기 노동·원자재 부족으로 인플레이션이 높게 유지될 것이며, 정부 정책이 이를 악화시켜 심각한 경기침체가 온다고 봤다. 경기침체로 기업이익이 급감해 주가에 아직 반영되지 않았다고 주장했다. 포지션: 2022년 2분기 보유 주식을 전량 매도해 현금화했다. 반면 지오그룹(GEO)에 330만 달러를 투자했는데, 경기침체 시 범죄 증가와 트럼프 행정부 교정시설 민간위탁 확대 가능성을 근거로 들었다. 암호화폐: 비트코인은 레버리지로 부풀려진 거대한 투기 버블이며 금리 상승 시 취약하다고 봤다. 2020년 게임스탑 보유 주식은 2020년 12월 31일까지 모두 매도했다고 밝혔다. 밈주식·인덱스: 밈주식과 AMC 등 투기적 종목에 경고했다. 저금리로 인한 인덱스·패시브 투자 쏠림이 버블을 만든다고 봤으며, 지수가 오르기 때문에 사는 구조가 위험하다고 봤다. 대안 투자: 미국 밖, 특히 일본의 저PER·저FCF 저평가 종목에서 가치를 찾을 수 있다고 봤다. 2022년 투자 핵심 변수는 인플레이션, 금리 상승, 과대평가 시장 세 가지다. 리스크: 대출 이자 상승, 채권 가격 하락, 주식시장 압력을 주의해야 한다. 참고로 영상은 버리의 과거 예측 적중률을 95%라고 소개했으나 이는 검증되지 않은 주장이다.

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01. you may learn about investing in how to make the best financial decisions for your life on investor facts make sure you click the subscription button and enable the notification Bell if you haven't already share like and comment all of America's wise men are predicting difficult times for the country's citizens in the months to come especially for company owners and stock market Traders for instance the world's most powerful investor and Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett Economist Jeremy grathum we're now investor Charlie Munger CEO of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Diamond and renowned investment Guru Michael burry are all predicting difficult times they believe that the U.S economy is rapidly deteriorating as a result of persistently Rising inflation a potential recession a collapse housing market an endless war in Eastern Europe supply chain disruptions and a host of other factors however Michael Brewer's regular predictions are very interesting and have 95 percent success rate on August 12 2022 he issued a warning to investors saying you'd be startled to discover that a bear Market rally is almost complete and we're going for a new bottom the market has fallen by roughly 17 since that time 10 000 is the next support level and then for Nasdaq 7000 prior to the conclusion of this dead cat rebound rally he cunningly unloaded 99 of his assets it feels like the end of the world is near as Dr Michael burry puts it but it's not the point of the film we'll also talk about how to make it through this challenging Economic Times Like Brewery who truly sold 99 of his stock Holdings just before the global recession was about to start let's see what Michael burry has to say about the state of the U.S economy right now and how to survive it since he has some recommendation for us on how to survive a 2022 Market meltdown Murray and mistakably believes that American Market is the cause of night he observed some notable over-evaluation the times according to bury are more jubilant than they were before when he uses the word more he means more speculation than in the 1920s more valuation than in the 1990s and more war on the global and economic front in the 1970s more than a year ago he predicted that stocks would endure the mother of all falls as a result he released his most recent warning with the gram showing the S P 500 sharp decline since hitting an all-time high in January and he predicts that more will follow no we have not reached the bottom after failing look for a bottom on September 7th Michael very tweeted that the failure of the two spec ETFs was insufficient Marie brought up the closure of two exchange traded funds that were involved in the acquisition of special purpose companies this was one of the financial crazes that Drew Songs of individual investors during defensive bull market two years later these pack ETFs are failing what is bury doing to combat this Market meltdown while he continues to warn the globe about the recession cyan Capital Management headed by bury liquidated all its stock holding in the second quarter in preparation for the fall while also investing in florida-based private jail operator Geo Group the organization sold its interest in 11 businesses including those of Bristol Myers Squibb Facebook parent meta Google parent alphabet and nexstar Media Group according to Michael burry inventory growth will result in a temporary decline in prices long-term labor and commodity shortages will result in a higher than normal inflation in addition he believes that the U.S government's ineffective policies will accentuate the undesirable economic implication of this High inflation the U.S economy will experience a severe recession as a result Murray contends that the severe recession will cause a sharp reduction in corporate profit that hasn't yet been accounted for in stock prices Murray anticipates a stock market crash as a corporate profit fall over the course of the next 12 months the examination of its regular cryptic tweet therefore summarizes the buried bear theses Michael burry only has the opinion that inflation won't go down due to his belief that stocks are doomed he sold everything contrary to Common belief Brewer's choice to sell everything was not even the most bizarre feature of his fund's most recent 13th filing he invested 3.3 million dollars in Geo Group which is concerning because very predicted and extremely harsh recession which would result in a higher unemployment rates and typically higher crime rates Burris bet on geogang appears to be that if the American economy faces a major recession in the coming year crime will rise considerably in addition to this we might also see involvement of the political component the cruises that Donald Trump the previous president of the United States supported private prisons and under Administration spending on private prison surged with various purchase of jio shares the stock actually sold by more than twice in the first two months of Trump's presidency it looks like he may be betting on Rising crime rates and imminent Red Wave in this year midterm elections Maria has also been discussing cryptocurrencies and bury has a somewhat negative outlook on them he essentially maintained his position that Bitcoin is just a giant speculative bubble throughout last year and warned that the cryptocurrency market might be supported by a lot of borrowed money he believes that Bitcoin is a large bubble that is just waiting to explode and that it is being fueled by Leverage a situation that obviously wouldn't work out particularly well when interest payments start to rise on the borrowed money if you didn't know bury actually owned GameStop in 2020 but he sold all his shares by December 31st 2020.

02. only weeks before the Big Short squeeze at the end of January 2021 Murray has been talking a lot about meme stocks and the game stocks in AMC's recently however bury has been counseling those who are still in charge that a catastrophe is likely to result from this position very effectively articulated by his argument made sense NY ETFs were in the bubble Zone low interest rates cause investors to pour money into the stock market increasing the popularity of indexed funds and passive investing investors buy the index because it's rising and that is how Bubbles form when the stock prices of the underlying companies increase quickly money pours into the top 500 American companies not because of the merits of individual companies but rather because the investors are buying the index because it is rising he claims that although it was just in foreign markets he was still able to locate value for instance he asserted that it is simple to locate extremely undervalued stocks in Japan with low earnings multiples or low-free cash flow multiples he's not exactly an optimist but in many circumstances the corporation may have huge cash or stock Holdings that make up a significant chunk of the stock price in fact he admits that both active and passive investors are finding it increasingly challenging I believe that the most important investment advice for 2022 is to look elsewhere if you're searching for discounts to be quite honest Murray's tweet regularly encouraged us and are heavily focused on locating Superior investment prospects outside the U.S as long as you can comprehend the firms you're studying exploring globally may not be such a crazy concept at all what can we infer about inflation from bursts consistent theses we merely need to mentally prepare for the potential Rising interest rates so make sure you won't personally get into trouble by for example paying interest on any loans you have the possibility of price suddenly Rising falling bond prices or the stock market may be experiencing significant pressure according to bury we believe that inflation interest rates and overvalued markets will be the three main variables affecting investors in 2022.

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