저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
달러가 안전자산 지위를 잃고 있으며 중앙은행의 금 매수와 지정학적 리스크로 금 강세가 이어질 것이라는 주장. 금은 2022년 이후 상승장이 시작됐고 3,300달러대에서 연말 4,000달러, 내년 5,000달러를 전망. 단기 조정 가능성은 인정하나 미국 경제(소비, 자본시장, 은행)에 대한 낙관은 유지하며 포트폴리오 일부를 금으로 분산할 것을 권유.
다듬은 글
Well, I I wouldn't give up on the dollar. I I I on the other hand, I'm telling people, you may want to have some gold in your portfolio uh as an offset to all the craziness. Gold is a very good hedge against chaos. And gold really started to this latest and it it tends to have long bull markets. We've only had two two really since Nixon went off the gold standard um and closed the gold window in uh August of 1971.
But the the the bull markets last a while and the bare markets last a while, too. I think we're in a bull market now. And I figured we could get uh to uh uh 3,000 uh and and here we are above that. And then I figure 4,000 by the end of the year and 5,000 uh by the end of next year. The US dollar is falling.
And that's odd because this happens when US bond yields are rising and the country has imposed higher tariffs. You'd usually see both these things lifting the dollar. Also, global investors typically rush to the US when the world gets risky. They buy US government bonds and convert their currencies into dollars.
The dollar gets stronger. That's how it's always worked. But that's not what we're seeing this time. Investors are swapping their dollar assets for anything else. Gold and even Japanese and European bonds. The dollar is losing its safe haven status. Recent events have led to a decline in the US dollar's value, reaching a three-year low.
Central banks are loading up on gold. Dr. Ed Yardini, president of Yardini Research and seasoned Wall Street strategist, breaks down the turmoil rattling the global financial system. From the escalating Trump tariff turmoil to the prospect of gold soaring to $5,000, Yardini issues stark warnings about policy missteps.
a paralyzed Federal Reserve, rising geopolitical tensions with China, and a credit market on shaky ground. He urges investors to stay alert and protect their portfolios, highlighting gold as a reliable shield in uncertain times. We're about to explore the video, but first, subscribe and hit the bell icon to keep up with our newest uploads.
Your feedback in the comments is always appreciated. The US is still the world's largest economy, certainly the largest consumer economy. Um, nobody does consumption better than Americans. If there was an Olympics in consumption, I think we'd win gold, brown bronze, and and silver. Um, I'm not being I'm not bragging here of uh of American consumers.
Uh, and the Chinese don't even come close. And that's been one of the problems. It's one of the reason we have a a a trade deficit. Americans spend a lot of money and they don't care where the product is made. They don't turn it upside down and see if it's made in China and say, "No, I'm not going to buy that." They they they they buy.
And meanwhile, the the Chinese, thanks to horrible policies by the Chinese Communist Party, particularly the one child policy, they have a geriatric population and older people just don't spend as much as younger aspirational people. Um and we do have immigration both legal and illegal now maybe less illegal.
Uh but um you know we uh we have that kind of open door policy. The Chinese don't have that uh policy. So the dollar naturally is an inter is is a key international reserve currency because everybody wants to do business with the United States. We'll soon find out how much they do they want to do business with the United States.
I think that's the card that Trump is playing is that we are the world's biggest consumers. I'm seeing a lot of chatter about, oh, you know, we've seen previous empires go into decline and when they go into decline, their currency no longer is desired and it it depreciates, it devalues and uh something else rises to the four.
And so there's a lot of predictions right now that uh we're in that kind of environment where the United States is uh is is in decline. It's it's it's all if if it wasn't serious, it'd be hilarious. I mean, the the front cover of The Economist in October uh had a cover story that just talked about basically American exceptionalism and how amazing the US economy was and the dollar was like a rocket ship going straight up.
Uh and now I think it's uh this week that uh they've got a very bearish scenario, a very bearish cover on the United States. And if you look at the past three, we've had three economist covers in a row that basically say, you know, America's, you know, the the end of the Roman Empire situation. Uh so from a contrarian perspective, say not not so fast.
Maybe that's not the way it's going to play out. it could play out uh in in a h happier way. America is still the you know the a superpower mil militarily superpower uh e economically u a superpower is a as a consumer market. So I I think some of this uh dollar decline is uh it could it could go further to the downside if if other countries decide they want to own more gold.
Uh but at the end of the day, it's really depends on what happens to the American economy. And I'm not giving up on the US economy. And again, I don't say this as a from a political standpoint. It's amazing how well the US economy and our stock market do despite Washington. So I don't care who's in the White House.
One way or the other, there the rest of us working stiffs make this thing work. And we just have to work around what the kakami policies that continuously come out of Washington. And we do that. America still is a very entrepreneurial economy. Uh we have an exceptional capital market. Lots of money available for venture uh for innovation.
Uh we have an exceptional banking system. I think it really uh improved dramatically after the great financial crisis. Uh we have lots of farmland. We have lots of minerals. We have lots of oil, lots of gas. Um Trump spoiled my uh my forecast. Uh, I was saying that this decade could be the roaring 2020s.
Uh, and I got half the decade right now hoping that this is just an interruption and things will look better again within the next six to 12 months. Well, I I wouldn't give up on the dollar. I I on the other hand, I am telling people you may want to have some gold in your portfolio uh as an offset to all the craziness.
Gold is a very good hedge against chaos and gold really started to this latest it it tends to have long bull markets. We've only had two two really since Nixon went off the gold standard um and closed the gold window in uh August of 1971. But the the the bull markets last a while and the bare markets last a while too.
I think we're in a bull market now. And um it it really got started when Russia invaded Ukraine and the United States froze the the assets of the Russians and uh central banks of countries that don't like us, don't agree with us, are threatened by us, like China, like Russia, like Venezuela, like Iran, and now maybe some others uh have been loading up on gold based on putting together the puzzle pieces together.
And you know, we're already at 300 3,300 on the uh and the price of gold has just kind of gone up. Um usually when something goes up like that, uh again, my amateur tech technical experience suggests that it's going to go down. So there could be certainly some correction and I saw a chart that says seasonally gold tends to be weak uh during the spring and summer starts picking picking up again.
Um but um you know all all I think I know on a fundamental basis is uh the world is pretty chaotic there. I think there was a Broadway show once called uh stop it's called u stop the world I want to get off and every now and then I maybe on a daily basis kind of reading the headlines because you know in our business we have to stay informed.
Uh you know you kind of say this this can't end well. Um, and by the way, a lot of my career has been arguing against that, that it can't end well, that, you know, the world's not going to come to an end. And some of my my best calls have been that the pessimists are wrong. And I I'm I'm still betting that the pessimists will be wrong.
As uncertainty around the US economic outlook deepens and trade tensions mount, some analysts suggest that the traditional safe haven status of the US dollar and Treasury debt may be eroding. This doesn't mean the dollar is suddenly being treated like a risk asset, but it does signal a global reassessment of its role as a reliable refuge during times of turmoil.
Historically, investors have flocked to the dollar and US government bonds in crisis. But with much of today's market volatility stemming from within the US itself, a growing number are seeking safety in an alternative haven, gold. Is your portfolio prepared for economic chaos or are you still relying on traditional assets?
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