저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 미국 대형 성장주·비트코인에 비관적이고, 신흥국 저성장 가치주와 친환경 관련주에 상대적 기회가 있다고 본다. 주요 주장: 그는 다음 시장 폭락이 1929년·2000년 수준에 버금갈 수 있다고 경고한다. 고평가된 고성장주(테슬라 등 '10배 주식')가 신뢰 하락 시 가장 큰 타격을 받을 것으로 본다. 가치주 및 신흥국: 저성장 가치주가 상대적 기회이며, 신흥국은 미국처럼 과열되지 않아 10~20년 10% 이상 수익 잠재력이 있다고 본다. 신흥국 저성장 가치주의 조합을 제시한다. 금·친환경: 금은 배당이 없지만 12,000년 검증과 가치 보존성을 근거로 보유를 긍정하며, 탈탄소 투자 수요(수조 달러)로 재생에너지·전기차 관련 기업이 유망하다고 본다. 단, 적정 가격 지불이 중요하다고 강조한다. 비트코인: 배당 흐름이 없어 가치 산정이 어렵다며 부정적이다. 진행자는 기술적 가치와 시가총액을 근거로 소액 편입 여지를 언급한다. 리스크: 자산가격 상승은 신규 진입자의 접근성을 낮추고 부의 불평등을 키운다고 지적한다. 영상은 2022년 8월 기준이며 구체적 목표가·기간은 제시되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬은 미국 시장 장기 수익률을 낮게 보고, 신흥국과 가치·친환경 영역을 선호한다.
다듬은 글
arguably an even bigger question is how do we invest to prepare for crash those who don't know examples of emerging markets include india mexico russia pakistan saudi arabia china brazil these are economies that are as per the word emerging they're not fully developed but they're in that stage of developing and growing in terms of business now so i would say yes i'm nervous about gold because i can't eat it and it pays no dividend but it has two wicked advantages over bitcoin which by the way bitcoin grantham is not a fan of one bit he said what is the future value of the dividend stream of bitcoin i can tell you that it doesn't take a prize-winning mathematician it is nil grantham he clearly disagrees and he leans much more towards gold the one thing that we definitely do agree on is our dislike towards the fed and its market manipulation if you have a six percent yield on your assets by reinvesting that you can double your money in 12 years if you turn it into a three percent yield by doubling your price you're worth more on paper but in real life you can only eat the dividends and now they're three percent a year and you double your money in 24 years in other words the higher the asset price the lower the rate at which you can compound wealth and if you're not in the game and you're a beginner you can have great difficulty ever getting into that game by definition it means that the rich get richer as you price down the yield the technology the ai the so-called 10x stocks those are high growth but very pricey jeremy grantham the well-esteem value investor thinks that the next market crash will rival the one that we had in 1929 and 2000 are there any opportunities available or is everything overpriced you can see my previous video to see his full viewpoints on why that is the case but so value stocks that's where grantham sees opportunity in today's market note that down the other opportunity that grantham sees is in emerging markets he said the good news is that overseas they have not had the same huge bull market and the same over-pricing that we have had staying is when the crash comes so grantham thinks that in today's market the opportunity is in the low growth stocks or the value stocks that you traditionally call them the ones that are going to get wiped out the most will be the high growth stocks the so-called 10x ones that have just shot up in price when consumer and investor confidence decreases these stocks that have gone up so high have the most to lose the likes of tesla neo zomdica etc because these are the ones that sell at high prices compared to what they bring in in terms of profits they've been this cheap two or three times and each time it's worked out very well so you can buy emerging markets and you can look at the intersection between those two ideas which is the low growth stocks within the emerging markets and they are handsomely priced you should be able to make a really decent 10 20 year return there end quote so that's interesting when grantham looks at the more mature markets especially the usa he sees low long-term returns the emerging markets however that's where he sees the real potential and that of course is a heaven-sense opportunity because you can go into the emerging markets and they are absolutely not that expensive and compared to the s p they are about as cheap as they've ever been the interesting thing about these types of markets is that investors often shy away from them even though they're growing strongly everyone wants to invest in the likes of the usa or canada or the uk because things have been established there and we'll say that stock pays a five dollar dividend a year so that's obviously a five percent return right now let's say you pay two hundred dollars for that exact same stock now it's only a 2.5 percent return a year because you paid a higher price your return is now less hence low demand for stocks results in lower prices and higher potential returns another sector in this market where grantham sees opportunity is the green sector he said i also think shares that benefit from the greening of the economy will do much better than the rest every season investor knows this and this is one reason why there's so much opportunity in those emerging markets because so few investors are looking there and speaking on intrinsic value something which some argue doesn't have intrinsic value is gold grantham is not one of those people he has bought gold before and doesn't mind it as an investment in hedge it will take trillions of dollars to decarbonize the global system it will dominate everyone's portfolio and if you have to own u.s stocks they're the ones to own so look around for good global climate change funds on anything to do with renewable energy the electrification of the system electric cars etc these are all going to have top-line revenues that dwarf the declining growth rate of the rest of the global economy i'm happy to say that gmo has won and they're doing very well now that the focus is clearly finally took 20 years to wake up but in the last year people are rarely beginning to understand but in 10 15 20 years time that's going to change because the world needs to become more sustainable if you can own those stocks now that are going to help this change well there's a lot of potential there the one thing that i would like to add to this is make sure that you pay an appropriate price for these types of stocks the likes of tesla quantum scape a2 milk yes they all have strong potential but as warren buffett says you must pay a fair price for a stock below its intrinsic value he said gold has had the odd 12 000 year test which it has passed pretty well and secondly gold does have some fallback qualities it doesn't tarnish it's unique in that sense everything that was ever made of gold is still around the size of the problem and the need to move money into greening the economy end quote so what he's getting at is currently the economy is dominated by gas fuel smoke and unclean energy the stocks that are stuck in their old ways and benefit from unsustainable energy well they're unlikely to do as great bitcoin is 100 faith come the next market phase where faith is at a minimum what do we think will happen to a stock whose entire reason for existence is faith and nothing but faith and quote will never pay you a dividend if you're desperate can you eat it no you can't its entire value is on the greater fool is it not so bitcoin could be worth a million dollars a unit if you can find someone to pay it now i don't completely agree with grantham on bitcoin here i think it's technology offers so much more value of a traditional currency its market cap is currently a lot cheaper than gold's so i think there is room for small percentage in one's portfolio for bitcoin grantham said by pushing up asset prices you do two things you make it difficult to impossible for people to get into the game the purchase of a house is too expensive the purchase of anything in stocks is much higher per dividend or because it makes you feel great because your stocks are going higher but it's all artificial thank you for watching everyone
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