Stocks still have tailwinds through May into July, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

지정학 리스크(전쟁)에도 시장은 강세 흐름 유지. 실적 추정치 상향, 미국의 AI 생산성 우위가 주도. 단기 조정 가능성은 인정하나 S&P500 기본 목표 7,300. 다만 올해 후반 Fed 신임 의장 시험과 유가 공급 부족 반영 문제로 조정(reckoning) 가능성 제기. 개인투자자는 저점에서 매도 후 관망 중이며 현 조정은 매수 기회로 봄. 소프트웨어 섹터는 디레이팅 후 리스크 대비 수익이 매력적이라 평가.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Joining us now Tom Lee, CIO and head of research at Fundstrat. Fundstrat, Tom, good morning. You know, we were just saying how this this market has done a very good job of kind of shaking off or or looking beyond the geopolitical situation over the last four or five weeks, really following the script as you've pointed out of all other geopolitical conflicts in the past where, you know, markets bottom well before things are fully resolved.

02. But how do you view things right now after this nice winning streak in the market and the and the reliance on Mag 7 and semiconductors to to get us here. Uh you know, I think the risk reward for stocks is still pretty good. Um I know the war remains uncertain, but I think the war has also exposed the strength of the US relative global position.

03. You know, earnings estimates have actually gone up as earning season's progressed. The US is a a leader on AI and that productivity lift is is meaningful. I think it's really one of the drivers for not only GDP, but one of the reasons US companies have been resilient. And I know there's a lot of investors still on the sidelines.

04. So I think the war remains uncertain and I mean, it certainly looks like it's going to be a longer war, but I do think stocks actually still have some tailwinds actually as we get through May and into July. You mentioned the earnings estimates going up, undoubtedly the case. Although there again, it's been pretty concentrated in the AI theme and in in in semiconductors and the other CapEx beneficiaries.

05. So therefore the market is somewhat narrowed out to that very dominant theme. I'm looking I always keep an eye on the consumer discretionary equal weighted. It's 9% below its highs, right? So that's sort of where some of the economic frictions from the war can bite. So is that okay? Is that a good formula for for how this market can can continue toward your your your targets higher?

06. Uh I mean, I think one of the reasons why Uh, it does feel concentrated as the AI story, which is a global productivity story, right? There AI is essentially creating productive units uh that actually either help workers uh produce more or even replace workers in some countries. It's primarily taking place in just the US and China.

07. And so, I'm not surprised in a way that we could see the US companies actually disproportionately benefiting this because it's not really taking place in Europe. So, I I'd sort of expect that concentration, but um you know, as far as like the effects later this year from higher oil I you know, I think that's a negative consequence and I think it raises questions about what the what the Fed could do.

08. In fact, of course, we're getting a new Fed chair. I That's why I think later this year the markets could actually face a test around that, but for now I think it's just an earnings tailwind story. And Ashley, you like us software, Tom. On Friday, you you named it a top sector pick. Was there anything from earning season, maybe from Microsoft's report?

09. I mean last year I mean there are a number of software companies that have reported. Anything that you heard specifically that made you feel better about the sector? Well, I think one of the things that's apparent to us around software is I know that investors are correctly thinking that there is if they should question, you know, the durability of these software models over time.

10. But many of these companies are are very well managed and companies will adapt. So, it's become a a sort of a de-rating story where investors are questioning future earnings, but now I think the risk reward is is pretty favorable. So, I I think for for the right companies and for the best businesses, this is a great risk reward.

11. Hey Tom, just uh watching the headlines that we just got, you know, stock futures jumping on this news that we got again from an Iranian news agency that two missiles struck a ship, a US ship in the Gulf. What What do you do with that? I mean, obviously we're still trying to react pretty quickly with this, but the future's sold off sharply on this.

12. Dow futures down by 375 points, the SP futures off by 40. How do you take these headlines? Uh I mean, I'm not surprised in the short term markets are going to react on a risk-off way. Uh it makes a lot of sense because this adds to the fog of war. But if the you know, as if we take a sort of step back further, um I think we're all settling in for the idea that this is this is going to be a longer war.

13. I I I know it's going to have some effects on oil prices, and one of the things we've been writing about to our clients is really just puzzling over the fact that there's a price for oil today in the futures markets, but it doesn't seem to reflect the reality of there's, you know, acute shortages developing, and eventually price has to react.

14. So, uh for now, it's it's been pretty remarkable to me that the the market's been able to see through that, and I it's one of the reasons our base case is for markets to make it to the S&P to 7,300. But I do think at some point there could be a reckoning later this year, and I think part of it is is the the Fed being tested, a new Fed, and the second part is, you know, the market trying to reconcile this shortage of oil and the fact that futures prices haven't really reflected that shortage.

15. Yeah, I mean, I know you've been, Tom, on that idea that there might be a larger than normal, so to speak, correction at some point hitting uh later this year. Also interested to say, you think that um you know, some investors are still kind of offside and underinvested after this rally we've gotten back to all-time highs, and that specifically retail investors seem as if uh they were kind of uh you know, wrong-footed by this move, which is goes in line with what I've been watching as well.

16. I kind of got shaken out near the lows, and the news kept them out. So, where does that stand? Uh you know, I I think it we're still when we look at investor positioning 2026 is unusual because in past corrections and retail investors were the steady buyers, but this year it looked like they were selling into the lows.

17. Uh there's still a lot of cash on the sidelines. Sentiment's still really muted. And in our conversations and surveys with clients, we could still see that cautious positioning. So, I do think that today's pullback is going to eventually be bought because again the under sort of the underlying structure of the market is a good earnings visibility story with AI.

18. And of course, demand for AI picks up if energy prices and other pressures are causing corporate margins uh to be under pressure. So, I I think investors are going to buy this dip. Tom, good to talk to you. Catch you up with you again soon. Thank you.