Tom Lee: Market is rising for all the right reasons

요약 보기

시장 상승은 꼬리위험 완화와 견조한 펀더멘털(실적 개선)에 따른 것이며, 4월 S&P500 실적 성장률은 예상 14.1%를 크게 웃도는 28% 수준이라고 주장. 기본 시나리오는 S&P500 7,300 방향 상승이며 소프트웨어 ETF IGV를 Mag7·크립토와 함께 최선호 섹터로 상향. 나스닥 급등과 시장 협소화에 대해서는 기술주가 먼저 고점을 찍고 저점도 먼저 찍은 '연속적 약세장' 구조로 보며 향후 폭 확산(소형·중형주) 가능성을 언급. 리테일 자금 유입이 상승을 주도할 것이라고 전망.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, let's ask Tom Lee. He is Fundstrat's head of research and a CNBC contributor and he is live as you see. Welcome back. Great to see you, Scott. Man, you nailed this thing. You you really did. You you had a sense that this market was coiled for a really big spring back, which we've had. So, what do we do now?

02. Um well, one, I think the the market's rising for the right reasons, Scott, because it's rising because the tail risks are abating and we've had good fundamentals. In fact, earnings have been good enough that estimates are going up and the leadership is coming from the groups that we want to see, um you know, which has been the Mag 7 and the tech and the cyclicals and that's what you want to see if the market is showing sort of economic resilience.

03. So, I I'd say for now our our base case is tracking, you know, we still think we're going to make a good move towards 7,300 for the S&P 500. And today we did raise software, uh which is the also the ETF IGV to beat a top pick sector alongside Mag 7 and crypto. So, let me ask you this. Uh I hear you.

04. Market's obviously rising for the {quote} {unquote} right reason. I mean, earnings growth in April I this is amazing was projected to be 14. 1%. Tom, we literally we're clocking 28%. Earnings growth. Yeah. That's remarkable. That's why the market's been looking outside of the oil complex and away from the war and any of the other right, you know, rising rates from time to time.

05. The market is just not having it because it's busy feasting feasting on these earnings. That that's right, Scott. In some ways like it's showing you that revenue growth, which has been better is delivering each dollar of upside to revenue is delivering a lot of earnings growth. So, there is a a margin story at work, which people would say is productivity, but it shows you the return on investment for the US economy is also going up, meaning I do think that AI is this is an example of AI actually having positive payoffs for the economy and for earnings.

06. Yeah, what what about tech, Tom, and and areas of the market that to some at least are starting to look overbought and I'll get into that a little bit later in our in our A block here, but for example, 1 month, okay? In 1 month the Nasdaq's up 15%. You've had a bit of narrower breath in the in the market to which Goldman's Ben Snyder today says sharply narrowing breath has historically indicated equity market drawdown risk.

07. S&P's up 14% from the low in March. The median S&P constituent, however, remains 13% below its respective high. How do you reconcile that? Um I think that I'm going to look at this as a series of rolling bear markets because we know the Mag 7 and the software stocks uh peaked a lot earlier than the broader market did and and and then they led into the low, but then bottomed first and are rallying.

08. So, I think that we should expect breath to follow, but it would be pretty textbook because, you know, tech is what peaked earlier several months earlier before the index level market actually peaked. I mean, we're almost at 7,300 as as I ask you these questions. 7,238 is where I'm looking at right now on on the S&P.

09. Where are we going, Tom? Where I mean, you figured we'd get here cuz you said as much when you thought we hit the bottom, but, you know, we we've come so far, so fast. Does that mean we've stolen some from the future and moved it forward? What does that tell us? [clears throat] Well, I know um strong markets tend to and I I'm going to sound uh not very original, but strong markets stay strong.

10. So, I think the strength that we've seen is is a good sign and and we also know when we look at the data that institutional investors caught the bottom, but I think in this in 2026 it's retail that kind of missed the low, but they have a lot of firepower. So, I think it's going to be a retail driven um buying of stocks and that's why I think broadening can take place cuz as you know, retail investors do like small and mid cap stocks as well.