저자: Pad Investing · 외국인
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the beauty about indexing is you never miss an Amazon or an apple and the bad thing about indexing is you never miss having a lot of overpriced stocks into one of the relatively rare bubbles such as we have now so it's kind of good news bad news if you can write out the odd 50% decline totally unnecessary of course on fundamentals 30 years ago the market has mildly hysterical from time to time and it's totally unjustified by the steady stream of dividends and earnings but happens and if you want to ride those 50% drops you know good luck it works out very well in the long long run but it can take you 20 years to get back in the game if you get caught in 1929 it works out just fine but you don't get your money back until 1955 if you get hammered in 74 you don't get your money back until 87 and then when you've gotten it back for a month or two you give it up again and the same in 2000 by 2010 you're still losing money so you have to be willing to ride out so for those who feel they're brave enough and willing to try I've always thought that sidest stepping some of the pain might be a good idea I think they're perfectly straightforward they're intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult they're easy because in most cases they're so extreme it's like how do you notice the Himalayas when you're standing in Northern India I mean they come out of the plane and they soar up you can't miss these things 1928 29 was just such a massive rally so the sheer price rise you can't miss secondly just to make it easier the great bubbles have always tended to rise faster and faster towards the end and that's a kind of defining feature also and then thirdly they have all been accompanied by Massive public obvious crazy behavior where the headlines migrate from the financial page to the front page where they migrate to the opening few sentences of the evening news on the radio of the television and they talk about Market New highs and they talk about what the Bitcoins of the era have done I know it's not a stock but it's a speculative instrument and the uh GameStops of the world and back in 2000 most of you will be old enough to remember the pet.com and the utter craziness of that period and the same was true of 1929 the same was true of Japan we had a group from Solomon Brothers a leading American brokerage House of the era who came around in 8889 when Japan was moving to 60 times Innings and explaining that their yields Etc and their interest rates Etc they really should have been selling at 100 times and they were cheap and you should buy them and it didn't start the Japanese Market breaking the following year it has not recovered the high of 31 years ago yet so um that was pretty painful taught us in a sense a powerful lesson about how human behavior works but it also explained to us why the big firms couldn't play that game it is simply not a commercial proposition to get out of a bull market because every now and then they run further and faster than you expected Japan went on and on and on Way Beyond people's expectations 2000 beat the record there's a lot of difference between 35 times earnings and 21 the previous record so sometimes they break out to an astonishing degree now the bad news is that changes nothing they go back even more and longer and they go back where they came from and the higher they go the harder and longer they fall but it changes everything when you're there when you're having a bubble it's really advisable to have the bubble be in one focused area in 2000 for example it was us growth stocks it was not uh Global and real estate was really cheap as in cheaper than the cost of building the building you could buy real estate for the bonds were really cheap and inflation protected bonds had just come out and they yielded 4.2% 4.3% I mean can you believe it real return guaranteed against inflation even within the market the value stocks were not too bad and the small stocks were not too bad and small value was actually cheap enough that when the S&P had gone down 50% it hadn't gone down at all it was I think plus three I mean amazing and the REITs all of the real estate they were up 30% as the S&P hit minus 50 that was a bubble that was Paradise for an assd allocator because there were so many Alternatives what you want to avoid is what Japan did in ' 89 Japan had the biggest bubble in history I believe big than the south sea bubble and that was in Landon real estate and the old Story the land under the emperor Palace was worth more than the whole state of California we spent two days actually asking and digging and it was it literally was first of all it's a big palace with great palace grounds and secondly downtown Tokyo all around it was selling for you know four five six times downtown Manhattan and the numbers worked out just amazing simultaneously they had the biggest Equity bubble of any import Market there are some flaky tiny markets that don't count but of any major Market that's the biggest bubble of all time at the time we were told it had gone to 65 times ends there's always historical revisionism in the data so you have to be a little careful but at the time it was clear everybody agreed 65 times earnings which is pretty remarkable and it had never sold at over 25 times before so that's the thing that makes every value manager wake up sweating in the middle of the night is Japanese docks anyway they managed to do both both of these at the same time and 31 years later the land is not back real estate's not back and socks are not back to where they were this was a loss of perceived wealth so profound that you have to congratulate the Japanese for not going into a depression and people talk about a last decade but that was the last decade where they actually inched forward they actually did not go even backwards for the decade when you taking that kind of loss of wealth you're in trouble now in the so-called great financial crash which irritates me as as the title because I think it was a housing bus the housing market had this perfect three sigma one in 100e outlier bubble had been very very stable historically so to get to that level it only had to go up only he says about 40% or so in two to three years which it did and then it gave it all back but the trouble with 2007 housing bubble is it took the stock market with it the stock market was not sensationally overpriced but it was a big overpriced bull market it was not in itself a bubble the housing market was a bubble a beautiful magnificent bubble and if you look at it it's perfectly round it goes up for three years it goes down for three years exactly the same speed and it goes all the way back where it came from and the housing bubble inflicted about 10 trillion doar of loss of perceived value so one minute you thought your house was worth 400,000 three years later you were told it was worth 550,000 3 years later you were told it was 400,000 and two years after that 3 50,000 so you had lost an enormous asset and housing markets are much more dangerous because more people own them the middle class in particular that earns very little stock earns a lot of Housing and it really when you lose that value you skip the trip to Portugal and you realize you can't send your second son to private school and it really flows through the system don't do it so what do we have this time we have of the four major asset classes on the planet we have three and a half in bubble La we have Jim Grant would say the most overpriced bond market and the lowest rates in the history of man that go back 4,000 years there is never a time when so much had a negative return where you pay the government to take your money so that's number one number two we're a contender for the highest priced us Equity Market in history I would say a majority of bubble experts think this is now slightly higher than 2000 which was epic and some people do not but at least we can all agree it's a contender and then we have real estate and real estate was kind of offc screen until a few minutes ago and suddenly on some of the databases it has risen 20% in the last 12 months as schilla series a little more conservative lags quite a bit I think it's only up 13 but the other series perfectly seriously done up 20 is the sharpest rise sharper than the 70s with inflation and sharer than the housing bubble of 2005 and what that means is Elric we hero worship is multiple of family income how much does the median house the one in the middle how many multiples of the median family income is it's a nice stable Fair metric it used to be in America that we'd sell at three times family income and in the bubble we kind of went to four and a half or so and then back and we are now at the multiple of family income that we were in '06 the very peak of the housing bubble we're back now the rate are very low so all being well you can quote afford it what you can't afford to do if you're a beginner is buy it in the first place how painful for most people high asset prices are they're kind of fun when you own them they're great for retirees who have nothing to do but liquidate their pile of assets but for people who don't have it and for society in general it's a disaster because what has happened over the last 25 years is that the yield on assets has dropped as the price Rose and at 6% you can reinvest and double your money in 12 years and at three it takes 24 years so in 48 years you have a quarter of the wealth ignoring taxes for a second a quarter of the wealth that you would have had in the world on average of the 20th century this is terrible and the same with a house you're getting half the house that you used to get for your income it's a disaster for people who don't have assets and the whole society is compounding as wealth much more slowly it's such a simple arithmetic point but nobody seems to get it it is slowing our wealth creation down and giving us the illusion that we're all getting rich and of course if you have a house you know that the house hasn't changed house was the same house at 300,000 as it was at 450 and back to 300,000 it's the same darned house it doesn't hold off the rain any better in a housing bubble like today it's the same with Stocks by the way they're the same old stocks only in stocks you get the fantasy of pretending that somehow they're earnings have gone stratospheric and you can expand the storytelling to fit the available price and that's why bubbles in the stock market are so dangerous but when you look back you find there was no dramatic shift in long-term earning power in 2000s it was just a game we all play there wasn't even in Japan there was a fairly modest upswing in profit margins and profit margins are as I like to say the most provably mean reverting Series in economics so if you pay up for Rising profit margins that is absolutely the wrong thing to do you should pay up for crushed profit margins because they always bounce you should pay down for Heroic profit margins because they always move downwards anyway so here we are we have the trifactor first time in American history the real estate market the bond market and the stock market and then coming up on the rails as they say are Commodities if you take the Goldman Sachs index for non-energy they have a ludicrous total index it's so dominated by oil that when they break out oil and non-oil and the total index you can't tell the difference really between the total index and the energy P but if you look at the non-energy part which is all the metals all the critically important foods plus one or two other things like cotton it's back to the oldtime high of 2011 it's back to that epic move in Commodities I mean who knew that the broad base of Commodities a lot of them that count are back to the all-time high and the UN Global index of food prices it's not far off 2011 high and then there's more complicated story of energy because energy in terms of fossil fuels is in the endgame the Paradox or the slight irony here I suppose is in the stock market where it really is focused most on the US and although the developed countries are quote overpriced it's fairly business as usual and there are some countries the UK for example and some would argue Japan are not particularly expensive and Emerging Markets seem to be perfectly ordinary with which means against the bubble us they're one of the two or three lowest relative points in history and from those other points they have done very very well indeed as recently as 2008 Emerging Market sold at a PE premium to the S&P and now it sells a half and that's a pretty decent discount why does this time seem very very different I am actually hard pressed to find anything that isn't different but to start with the basics the price earnings ratio of of the market for the last 20 years has been 70% higher than the previous 100 years this is not a small number this is not 15% the profit margins of us corporations have been 30% higher in the last 20 years so you've had really profound shifts I think also the style of corporate management 30 years ago they used to think about expansion the market for paper would get a little tied and they'd start to open new Mills now they think about profit margins more than expansion and they use their extra money to buy stock back it works out very well for corporate officers tends to push the price of the stock up a little bit tends to be a little bad for GDP growth a little bad for jobs but for the corporation itself it works pretty well and for the stockholders there's no easy correlation between the economy doing well and the stock you might think there is when you read the newspaper or listen to the news but there isn't if you run a correlation between the countries that do well you can't find any connection the rapid growing countries of the past have tended to slightly underperform so you might start with Japan had the best growth didn't do that well overall and then South Korea China today they outgrow everybody doesn't mean you make more money in the stock market in fact you run them all together over the last 100 years you see a slightly negative correlation the countries that have grown more slowly tend to do a little bit better in the market the thing that drives return is how profitable you are not how fast you grow I'm causing a lot of trouble amongst my fellow value managers by saying that I don't think this Market is a true bubble about to blow up but that doesn't mean I would put my money in the US market I think Emerging Markets is unusually much cheaper than the us as recently as early 08 it sold at a premium in the price earnings ratio and uh by the spring of last year amazingly it was actually cheaper than it had been after the crash in 09 and the US meanwhile priced at 11 times times earnings had gone to 22 and emerging had gone from 11 to 10 so a huge Divergence in favor of the US and that's usually a pretty good sign you should pay attention be ready to be a little Brave and um the probability of emerging not outperforming the us over the next 5 or 10 years is I think very slim it will win who has the strongest economy in the world and how do you measure it I think obviously China and India have been able to out grow everybody else and I think that's a workable definition of a strong economy how many of your poor have you turned into middle class what is the average Lifestyle what's the average educational standard and you have to give it to the Chinese what should scare us a little bit is the success particularly of the Chinese of educating their average Workforce their recent scores in math are higher than the US not only are they onethird the price or one quarter the price but they're actually more skilled in basic quantitative methods this should make us nervous it makes me nervous exactly it makes people in Silicon Valley nervous too I think it does yeah yeah and can you argue that over the long run whatever the long run is those countries that don't have a highly functioning democracy will be in the long run restrained in terms of their prospects I have this view about capitalism that it does millions of things better than other kind of uh top- driven economic systems but one or two things it does very badly if it's very longterm capitalism is not really suited to that they have this discount rate problem whereby anything that happens out 20 years doesn't seem to matter and uh the Chinese can deal with those problems much better and today the real threats tend to be long-term issues such as climate change population how do you deal with these problems which are what economists call externalities mainly their societies I think can and are handling it much better they respond to climate change much more quickly and more seriously than we do and they have much greater respect for science so I think the biggest risk to American Business and American society is the drift to more corporate power in politics and more corporate power through monopolies and so on and less to the workers and the destruction of the unions and the income inequality where we are a 20th out of 20 rich countries we are the most unequal Society and also the speed with which you can move from one economic class to another one always used to think of America as being extremely mobile we're the stickiest we're the most difficult Society in the developed 20 countries to go from the lower class to the middle class this is absolutely a long-term threat to how virile a capitalist Society can be if you suppress the ordinary worker since 1970 the average average hourly pay adjusted for inflation has not changed and U in France I bring up France because ever since I've been here for 40 years if you read business week you think we've been kicking their bottoms but their average hourly pay is up 140% the poor old Brits is up 65 the Japanese up 80 and the US hourly wage the average of all hours work has not changed since 1970 I mean this has been a tough era and why wouldn't the workers be upset and yet wouldn't you say if you look at actually what is happening and what is being proposed that this is the complete flowering of corporatism it is the complete domination where people from a particular industry are appointed to run the regulatory body that is meant to protect the general people from misbehavior of the drug companies or misbehavior of the fossil fuel companies they have been taken over by the corporation a good Society will have these waves you move towards capitalism you move back towards the worker capitalism was the top dog back in 1880 the Gilded Age and then combination of a couple of Wars FDR a depression and from 45 to 75 we had the Golden Era of equality where everybody benefited from productivity Pension funds were started the workers made huge advances educational standards for ordinary people went up and the GDP was handsome and then from 75 to 85 began to get a little stickier and after 85 it's been pretty much corporate power increasing all the time when the Smoke Clears all these new technologies seem to increase the power of the elite of the technologically gifted and you see the development of new corporations that become worth scores of billions in a handful of years and they seem to be largely irrelevant to the average worker
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