저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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2022년 이후 글로벌 경제는 러시아의 우크라이나 침공, 에너지·식량 가격 급등, 중국 코로나 봉쇄, 금리 인상 등으로 어려움을 겪었다. 루비니는 유럽이 짧고 얕은 경기침체를 겪을 것이라는 컨센서스와 달리, 에너지 문제와 높은 부채비율 때문에 침체가 내년 대부분까지 길어질 수 있다고 봤다. 경기침체 대응책으로 중앙은행의 금리 인하, 재정 부양, 규제 완화, 중소기업 지원, 국제 공조, 사회안전망 강화, 구조개혁 등을 제시했다. 에너지 가격 상승에 대해 정부의 가격 인위적 인하는 근본 해결이 아니며 재생에너지 전환이 필요하다고 주장했다. 재생에너지 비중은 1년간 약 8%에서 12%로 늘었지만 화석연료는 82%에서 78%로 줄었을 뿐이다. 기후변화로 인수공통 감염병과 팬데믹이 잦아질 것이며, 대응 비용은 크고 국제 협력은 어렵다고 봤다. 중국은 2010년대 이후 시진핑 체제에서 국가자본주의와 권위주의가 강화되었고, 부동산 투자와 신용 확대 등 금융 취약성이 있다고 지적했다. 독일은 러시아 에너지 의존의 대가를 치르고 있으며, 높은 에너지 가격과 제조업 부진에 직면해 있다고 봤다. 한 줄 결론: 루비니는 유럽 경기침체가 예상보다 길 수 있다고 비관적으로 봤으며, 구체적 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
whether the world can avoid recession or if it's too late by noriel rubini in 2022 the global economy faced challenges Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused food and energy prices to soar Europe depended on Russian gas and oil suffered additionally China's covid related shutdowns disrupted Global Supply chains the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank intervened with interest rate hikes moving to 2023 the INF predicts the Eurozone might avoid a recession but concerns about a AI replacing jobs and tensions between China Taiwan and India China continue it's a dynamic global economic situation get ready for an economic roller coaster ahead the coming year brings uncertainty about recession and Only Time Will Reveal its outcome as noriel rubini said economics is a wild dance floor and recession is the clumsy partner trying to step on our toes let's hope we can avoid that clumsy partner with some skilled footwork let's take a hilarious plunge into the fiery depths of economic opinions with the one and only norial rubini in his latest Masterpiece he's got some gloomy predictions about the world being Stuck In Perpetual crisis mode picture War climate change and inflation all partying together wreaking havoc on our economic shindig but hold on tight because he's not done yet rubini believes Europe is about to do a nosedive into a deep never-ending recession talk about a buzzkill meanwhile the official forecasts are all like nah it's not that bad guys don't worry be happy but Mr rubini here is channeling his inner pessimist and saying oh no it's gonna be a doozy so can the world avoid a recession or is it already too late that's the million dollar question the opinions are divided and the crystal ball is foggy strap yourself in for an economic roller coaster ride it's gonna be one wild recession-filled adventure the Eurozone faces a deep protracted reception well in the case of Europe and the Eurozone the consensus is there'll be a short and shallow recession maybe a couple of quarters starting go either the fourth quarter in the first part of next year followed by a recovery I think that the energy problems of Europe are severe they are very high debt ratios how much longer do you think a recession could last for Europe well the consensus is the recession my last only a couple of quarters what they call a short and shallow recession plain vanilla Garden variety with barely any increase in the unemployment rate I think that the recession might continue for most of next year all of the four quarter of next theaters Terry policy central banks can use expansionary monetary policies by lowering interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment this can encourage consumer spending and business expansion two fiscal stimulus governments can employ fiscal measures such as increased public spending tax cuts or targeted incentives to boost economic activity these initiatives aim to stimulate demand and create jobs three regulatory flexibility governments can ease regulations on businesses to encourage investment and Innovation this can provide a conducive environment for companies to grow and contribute to economic recovery four support for small businesses small and medium-sized Enterprises smes are significant drivers of economic growth and employment providing financial support access to credit and other resources can help them weather the economic downturn and sustain their operations 5.
International cooperation coordinated efforts between countries can be beneficial in addressing a global recession this may involve sharing information coordinating fiscal and monetary policies and avoiding protectionist measures that could harm International Trade six social safety nets strengthening social safety nets such as unemployment benefits health care and income support can help alleviate the negative impact of a recession on individuals and families this can maintain consumer spending and prevent a downward spiral in the economy 7.
structural reforms governments can use a recession as an opportunity to implement long-term structural reforms these may include improvements in Education and Training Systems infrastructure Investments and measures to enhance productivity and competitiveness the effectiveness of these strategies can vary depending on the economic context and severity of the recession economic conditions and expert recommendations can change over time so it's advisable to consult up-to-date analysis from economists like noriel rubini Energy prices are soaring and policy makers are trying to help by giving us some cash but artificially reducing prices won't solve the real problem we need to shift to renewable energy meanwhile the European Central Bank is is tightening monetary policy to fight inflation but the government's actions are adding fuel to the fire it's like a dance party with mismatched moves hang on tight as we ride the roller coaster of energy prices what about a quicker shift to renewable energy you brought that up just then wouldn't that be something that would help spur on growth in that sector at least and perhaps solve some of our problems when it comes to climate change and energy insecurity well it's easier said than done you know for the last year the share of renewable in global energy has gone from about eight to twelve percent while the one of fossil fuel has been falling from 82 towards 78 percent pandemics pandemics everywhere hovid19 has been a pain in the Schnitzel and we're not sure when it's going away plus brace yourselves for more outbreaks in the future because Global pandemics are becoming the hottest Trend since bell-bottom jeans the culprit climate change as we mess with Mother Nature we're getting up close and personal with animals carrying all sorts of funky diseases bats pangolins you name it there like walking germ factories and don't get me started on melting permafrost it's like an ancient virus clearance sale down there with bacteria and viruses falling out and ready to party like its 10 000 BC the problem is dealing with pandemics ain't cheap it's like trying to buy a first class ticket to Mars costly and Out Of Reach for most of us whether we're preventing or patching things up afterward the bills keep piling up faster than Amazon Prime deliveries but here's the kicker Global cooperation is as elusive as a unicorn in a crowd of politicians everyone's got their own agenda from China to the West Russia North Korea and Iran it's like a dysfunctional family reunion where nobody can agree on anything whether it's climate change pandemics or what toppings belong on a pizza speaking of China they're still wrestling with covid-19 but what's their next move on the world stage will they play nice or stir the pot like a Master Chef they're challenging the Western order with their own brand of State capitalism and authoritarian rule it's like The Clash of the Titans but with geopolitics instead of giant monsters so buckle up folks pandemics are here to stay climate change is making things worse and Global cooperation is harder to achieve than a perfect souffle it's a wild world out there and we're all just trying to keep our sanity intact cheers to that the so-called communist capitalism backfired at some stage well this economic model has worked for China for a while but until she's in pain became president there was more economic liberalization it was more even of uh freedoms individual freedoms even if China was not a democracy and not expected to become one but in the last decade under Xi Jinping the camp has become inward more authoritarian politically has become more in the direction of State capitalism State on Enterprises stayed on banks China undersea Jinping is causing quite a stir they're eyeing Taiwan like a jealous ex and their economic model is shakier than a Jenga Tower real estate Investments credit fueled spending it's all a house of cards ready to collapse even with their power China's got some Financial vulnerabilities now let's talk about Germany the land of sausages and Engineering Marvels they made a boo-boo by relying to too much on Russia for energy and the Ukraine invasion was like a cold shower for them now they need new energy sources which means higher prices and a sad manufacturing sector and guess who's lurking around China with its tempting Investments and geopolitical games Germany don't fall for it soon Channel I'll see you in the next video
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