US Recession Running Deep into Next Year 2024 Jeremy Grantham

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결론: 제러미 그랜섬은 미국 경기침체가 2024년까지 길게 이어지고 주가 하락이 동반될 수 있다고 전망한다. 그랜섬은 연준의 경기침체 예측 실적이 매우 나쁘다고 비판한다. 연준은 거품 붕괴 이후의 경기침체를 거의 예측하지 못했고, 자산가격 상승 효과는 자랑하면서 자산가격 붕괴의 디플레이션 효과는 인정하지 않는다고 주장한다. 2021년 기술주 하락에서 비롯된 디플레이션 압력이 여전히 크고, 금리 상승이 부동산 시장을 짓누르는 영향이 천천히 누적되고 있다고 본다. 이 힘들이 다시 지배력을 가져 2024년까지 침체가 이어질 수 있다고 예상한다. 인플레이션은 지난 10년 평균만큼 낮아지지 않을 것이며, 중간 정도로 높은 인플레이션과 금리의 시대에 재진입했다고 본다. 금리가 낮으면 자산가격이 오르고 금리가 높으면 자산가격이 내린다는 단순한 원리를 강조한다. 파월 연준의 통화정책 운영 방식에도 의문을 제기하며, 인플레이션 통제가 한 사람의 결정만으로 되는 것이 아니라 더 큰 경제 힘에 좌우된다고 본다. 공급망 차질, 상승하는 생산비용, 노동시장 불균형이 인플레이션을 오래 지속시킬 수 있고, 이것이 소비와 기업 실적을 해칠 수 있다고 우려한다. 코로나19의 영향도 백신과 회복 노력에도 불구하고 여러 분야에 남아 있다고 본다. 지정학적 긴장, 무역 문제, 국제 자금 흐름 변화가 미국 경제에 영향을 줄 수 있어 여러 요인을 함께 봐야 한다고 강조한다. 영상 해설자는 경제 전망은 새로운 데이터와 정책 변화에 따라 바뀔 수 있으므로 유연한 태도가 필요하다고 덧붙인다. 그랜섬은 전반적으로 비관적 거시 전망을 유지하며, 자산가격 하락과 침체 장기화 가능성을 경고한다.

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01. Jeremy Grantham predicts the US recession will linger deep into 2024 raising critical questions about our economic future hey there welcome back to the finance Zoom Channel today I am about to explore a significant prediction causing quite a stir in the financial markets get ready as I will break down Jeremy grantham's forecast about a longlasting recession that's expected to stick around until at least 2024 according to Bloomberg Jeremy Grantham has delivered a candid assessment of the Federal Reserve stance on avoiding an imminent recession in an interview with David Rubenstein he remarked that the f8 is almost guaranteed to be wrong the deflationary forces from the tech stocks breaking in 2021 probably too too big the the power of interest rates rising and depressing the real estate market very negative slow moving influence I I suspect that they will once again Dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock price as Jeremy Grantham said the deflationary pressures triggered by the tech stock downturn in 2021 made resurface compounded by the prospect of rising interest rates and a subdued real estate market this combination of factors presents a disheartening and gradual influence on the economy grantham's suspicion that these forces could regain dominance suggest the possibility of a protracted recession that could extend well into the following year accompanied by a corresponding decline in stock prices while a full-blown recession may not materialize in 2023 the warning signs are evident raising legitimate concerns about the economy's future stability yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always do that's right it's hard to agree with Jeremy grantham's skepticism towards the federal reserve's track record the fed's history of not predicting recessions accurately especially those following major bubbles does raise questions about their ability to navigate economic challenges effectively grantham's caution about the potential negative impact of gradually Rising interest rates contradicts the fed's confidence in their approach his consistent adherence to a pessimistic forecast particularly given given his past predictions about Market downturns adds weight to his concerns the Federal Reserve has stated that they believe the threat of a recession has diminished and that they no longer foresee one on the horizon however Jeremy Grantham holds a different opinion what's intriguing is that the FED seems to overlook or downplay the negative consequences that follow when asset prices deflate after a bubble bursts despite these patterns the FED hasn't taken respons ibility for the constant deflationary impact in summary my disagreement with the fed's optimism is based on their history of underestimating certain aspects of economic Dynamics and their tendency to ignore the full scope of outcomes from their actions this skepticism extends to their current belief that a recession can be avoided this conversation sheds light on the complexity of economic forecasts and how different viewpoints shape our understanding of the future fut let's now hear from Jeremy Grantham on these forces at play especially regarding inflation and interest rates the forces work I suspect inflation will never be as low as it average for the last 10 years that we have re-entered a period of of moderately higher inflation and therefore moderately higher interest rates in the end life is simple low rates push up asset prices higher rates push asset prices down consider Jeremy grantham's perspective as a magnifying glass that helps you see the potential recession and its consequences more clearly his point of view sheds light on essential parts of the economic situation especially regarding inflation and its widespread effects as you think about the possibility of a recession extending into 2024 grantham's insights become even more important he's not entirely on board with the Str strategies used by Jay Powell the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors responsible for influencing the nation's monetary policy which shows that steering the economy through tough times is complex grantham's doubts make you consider whether controlling inflation is doable and how it might impact the path of a more prolonged recession in a recent chat grantham's comments about how Powell handles inflation were significant he's suggesting that bigger economic forces are at Play than just one person's decisions Gram's way of looking at things makes you realize that steering the economy is complicated and that there might be limits to what policies can achieve grantham's track record for making smart predictions adds weight to his concerns he's looked at many factors like supply chain disruptions Rising inflation and global economic changes this shows he understands what's going on his experience in handling these complex issues gives more credibility to his predictions about a longer lasting economic downturn plus Grantham points out how the coid 19 pandemics effects are still hanging around even with vaccines and Recovery efforts the pandemic's impact lingers across different areas this aligns with what grantham's been saying about a tough recovery and a longer recession the problems with Supply chains and their consequences remind you that the economy is delicate grantham's warnings about where inflation might be headed are like a crystal ball into the future he's spotlighting things like higher prices for goods increasing production costs and imbalances in the job market this will all help you understand how inflation could stick around and Grantham is worried that this could hurt how much people can buy and how well businesses can do lastly grantham's reminder that the global economy is connected is worth noting G geopolitical tensions trade issues and international money changes can all affect the US economy grant them saying you need to look at everything together to deal with these challenges so when discussing the possibility of a recession going deep into 20124 Jeremy grantham's ideas make you think about all these factors his way of looking at things offers valuable insights that help you understand where the economy is headed to wrap things up Jeremy grantham's alert regarding the potential for a US recession to extend into 2024 is a stark reminder of how intricate and unpredictable our current economic landscape truly is his insights provide a solid foundation for his argument and offer a comprehensive perspective on the contributing factors these factors include disruptions in Supply chains the pressures of rising inflation and the dynamic shifts occurring within the global economy each of these elements adds to the complexity of his forecast however it's important to maintain a sense of perspective regarding the nature of economic predictions they are inherently vulnerable to changes brought about by evolving circumstances as grantham's insights guide you through these uncharted waters you must remain aware that economic forecasts can shift as new data emerges policies evolve and unforeseen events unfold as you navigate through the challenges presented by these economic uncertainties it becomes crucial for policy makers businesses and individuals to retain a flexible mindset and stay well informed while Gram's perspective offers an essential Viewpoint It ultimately falls upon each of you to weigh the available evidence analyze the trends and draw your conclusions economists investors and the general public will undoubtedly watch this Situation's Contin ous progression the ongoing evolution of economic indicators Market behaviors and policy responses will surely command attention as you collectively observe this journey developing a nuanced understanding of grantham's insights and the broader economic Dynamics will be vital in ensuring wise decision-making amidst the intricate complexities of our uncertain economic environment what do you think about this topic let me know in the comments section below don't forget to like share and subscribe to finance soon Channel I'll see you in the next video