저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼 JP모건 CEO가 2018년 12월 CNBC에 출연해 증시 급락 원인과 미중 무역분쟁, 연준 금리인상, 채권·주택시장, 일자리 및 BRT 활동을 설명했다. 증시 하락은 미국 경제 자체보다 무역전쟁에 대한 공포와 금리 상승이 겹친 결과라고 진단했다. 미국 경제는 고용과 소비가 견조하고 실업률은 3.3% 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 무역 협상은 90일 시한 내 진전 가능성이 60%라고 보았으며, 중국이 일부 산업 투자 허용과 지재권 문제 인정 등 실질적 변화를 보이고 있다고 평가했다. 다만 화웨이 CFO 체포 같은 돌발 변수는 위험으로 꼽았다. 연준은 데이터 기반으로 12월 금리인상을 할 가능성이 높으며, 과도한 긴축 우려보다 정상화가 바람직하다고 했다. 미국 국채 10년물 금리는 경제 성장 대비 낮게 억제돼 있으며 약 4%가 적정하다고 봤고, 국채 매수에는 소극적이었다. ECB의 채권 매입이 미국 금리를 누르는 요인이라고 설명했다. 주택담보대출은 금리 상승으로 비싸졌지만, 과도한 증권화 규제 등으로 신용 공급이 제한돼 있어 정책적으로 완화할 여지가 있다고 말했다. 회사채 시장에 2007년식 위험은 없다고 평가했다. 고용 측면에서는 JP모건이 고교 직업훈련에 600만 달러를 투입하는 등 BRT 차원의 인재 육성, 도제식 교육, 인프라 허가 간소화를 강조했다. 세제 개편의 효과는 기업 투자 확대로 장기간 누적될 것이라고 말했다. 경기침체 시점에 대해서는 2020~2021년 가능성을 거론했으나 알기 어렵다고 선을 그었다.
다듬은 글
and I want to talk about the Business Roundtable but because of the chaos in the markets today I'm hoping we can start there yeah markets down pretty substantially and just wonder what you think is happening is this a real situation is this a fear factor or is this a factual effect that's driving stocks down it's a little both it's a confluence of two things we still have a strong American economy so if you speak to most the CEOs they say their order books are good cut consumer balance sheets are good the economy growing wages going up they're still hiring people unemployment may very well hit three point three percent this year that's all good on the other side but you have a bunch of geopolitical stuff oil brexit but I think the one that's probably rut rolling the markets the most straight and this is about trade is not just the direct effect that's the indirect effect that worked how bad is going to get what can go wrong and you know of course that's fat tail of a trade war you know if you you know you wouldn't even think about that a year ago and that appealed to me but how bad can it get that's why you see it's kind of swinging the marketplace and that with the added thing rates are going up and is it recessionary now i person think the yield curve it doesn't tell you that at all but no that's the thought there maybe there's something in the newcomers tone you might have a recession so but we all see and the actual facts on the ground is you still have growth in America that's a lot and growth in the world you know we just met with the IMF 3.7 percent this year and that's among one of the better growth for the world for not nothing this year next year 2019 but the fear factor the idea of the trade war which would you call a trade war now because we still trace garmisch put people pricing in how bad can it get and you know you have to like how bad can it get so when you say people are pricing it in you're talking traders or you're talking CEOs we're trying to figure out what little because you're having a lot of people mentioned to be an issue so it's a minor issue for most companies but it's a big issue for some and some coming you know they have to change supply lines they have to make investments differently they may hold off on something because they need to know where to build a plan Mexico you know America Vietnam South Korea China and those things just causing uncertainty which causes volatility are you hearing about specific companies that are pulling in plans that are saying we're gonna wait see what happens a couple yeah but it's not like I said take 100 companies it's three four or five the other there's another five they'll tell you they're worried about it and they're thinking about it and it's affecting price a little bit and but the Balto stuff that does affect them so you know just but it's the uncertainty when you create uncertainty like this and you know with potential tariffs and doubling down and 90-day timelines you're going to get a little bit of roiled markets traders and investors overall seem to feel a little better about things at least on Monday for a few hours after we got out of the g20 yeah and then we started thinking okay these are pretty complicated talks we've got 90 days to come up with solution where do you think we stand in 90 days look the I'm gonna tell you I think the likely outcome is that they make enough progress in 90 days an actual progress if you look at the Chinese they are actually allowing some companies to buy the industries they're talking about making actual immediate changes when they had their press release both about buying things and changing they acknowledge that IP is at issue and try a separate process to try to make IP no fixed IP so if they do that my guess is at the end of 90 days it'll get extended more they can't get it all done 90 days I think it's just too complicated to do that but again it creates another of a cliff you have to wait for 90 days to see what that means and so now that kind of uncertainty is just not necessary good for markets mostly it works I hope they are these important issues get resolved you're hoping are you are you expecting I again there's all the odds I give it a higher chance you know 60 percent versus 40 but the risk is always if something goes south you know we arrested the lady from well a huawei and you know what does that mean and you know the rumors now there's I heard the arrest of some Americans and China and that kind of stuff is just not helpful methey situation with the Huawei CFO I was reading through it this morning - and trying to figure it out I mean it was done by the Southern District in New York by the Department of Justice to me it didn't seem like it was a direct correlation with what was happening with the trade dogs but there is a good chance the White House had no idea was taking place I mean our governments are big in complex places so that does happen sometimes right and if that's the case as the market overreacted it's possible yeah you haven't heard anything one way or another you know I've been busy all day so you pay heard more yeah just reading the tea leaves on what I don't know yeah I want to talk to you about the Fed because you did mention the Fed raising rates at this point and that's been a huge part of the factor that has made I would say probably business leaders but especially traders pretty nervous is the Fed raising too far too fast this morning the market was betting that there's only a 73% chance that they'd even go this month in December and up to this point that had been kind of a hundred percent baked dad what do you think should they based on what you see in the economy because you have a pretty long lead I think when you talk about the risk of the Fed doing it too much too fast there's also a risk of doing too little too slow and you know of course it's easy for people who own assets today it's all about lower rates but the fact is a strong economy normalizing rates is a good thing so you know my guess is the feds me looking at data right up to the last minute and that they probably will do December I don't think the Fed should be overreacting because the stock market went up or down or people are afraid to trade or stuff like there are possible geopolitical events and normalizes a good thing the world will be much happier if America is growing and rates is going up a little bit that we have a recession and rates go down it's better for the world so so I think they'll probably stay on course and of course people and adjust there's this speculation in that issue so I mean you have a very good idea of what's happening in home mortgages because of all the mortgages you make there and in car loans and that's been some of the areas that people say look things are really weakening there is that because rates going up or is there something else happening I don't think yeah it's not weekend car loans are being made 17 million cars being solved you you know it's humming along I think a bunch of people got a little more conservative subprime auto that's a very minor total affect the United States economy this and home mortgage is mostly because rates are going up and that you know the other the option justice spreads and war is going up a little bit so it's a little more expensive to get a home if I was the government I would go out of my way to expand the credit box right now we still have restricted credit to a lot of buyers because of all the mortgage origination and securitization purchasing rules and stuff like that and that could be fixed and does you create any extra risk it just reduces the cost of mortgages to a bunch of people and it opens up more people get mortgages what what has to happen for that who would need securitization requirements okay we still don't have them seven years after the crisis that alone so you're allowed to securitize and get some stuff off your balance sheet in a very safe way that would be great for the mortgage market reduce the cost of all mortgages a securitization and everybody immediately thinks oh my gosh we're going back to CBS that's not the way people should think there's good and bad they're good cielos and bad cielos is good this was a bad idea to think that securitization a bad thing it's a very good thing remember the buyers are top-notch professionals too so it just allows institution to make mortgages to have another way to sell them a cheaper way and it makes it cheaper for the individual and the credit box is more with all the litigation after the crisis and FHA and all those things would happen there's a lot of banks and non-banks they don't go right up to the to the limit of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac they put overlays a little more Freight you've been tighter appraisals and more conservative pays a little more conserve income and I did that and that hurts lower income and look you know back home valued between two or thousand three hundred fifty thousand and that would be a good thing to make those Moore's is more available so there's always a solution to issues and but obviously rates going up reducing mortgages but in American history there have been a lot of times when mortgage rates are going up home price continuum honestly go up and the economy continues to grow it's automatic that just cuz more is going up that's gonna hurt there there are people looking for bubbles everywhere inflated asset classes because of the reason that rates have been so look so low for so long and one police that investors have been nervous about recently is just credit the corporate credit are there problems with the corporate credit market no I think people are we don't the the corporate credit market in 2007 the bridge the underwritten bridge book on the street for and 80 billion today eighty there are no sibs no bad cielos no bad CEOs no subprime to speak of in a whole bunch of categories much less leverage in the banking system and the non-bank system and then you're looking at leveraged loans you had there leveraged loans that's a normal way to conduct business people by companies with leverage with the banks own which is 800 billion or something of terminating loans it's pretty safe the term B loans are predominately owned by non banks but they look to be okay to there is more of it you know I think if you looked at a bubble anywhere or B in government bonds you know where wastes have been suppressed now for the better part of eight years and that's the other side that you know you don't want to find we're trying to have inflation and we have to sell this is the United States has told 1.8 trillion dollars of bonds between the government of trillion - and the Federal Reserve so far plans to sell 600 that's a huge difference from a couple years ago and so that's the supply and demand is different so I wouldn't be a buyer of government bonds these prices I honestly believe the tenure should already be at 4% and nor do I think it was a 4% would be disaster the American economy is growing to two and a half or three you know you can say that it's it's being artificially held down but you could also say look if you compare that to the German tenure that's going to be act as gravity on the US 10-year rates - I mean how much of this is but further countries have different growth rates and different currency curves and stuff like that just because they're different doesn't mean that that one does the other but in this particular case it's mostly right but that's also because the ECB's buying bonds okay so the might say suppress I mean globally surprised not just the presence in the US yeah we talked a little bit what goes on out here we should all be optimistic about yes let's switch to that and let's start with the jobs report it's coming out tomorrow you announced an initiative at JPMorgan today to take six million dollars and spend it on job training here in the DC area it's something you've been doing around the country and even around the globe why what what are you seeing in terms of demand for these jobs and what are you seeing in terms of so take a sticker 3.7 percent unemployment on its way down seven million open jobs 7 million people looking for jobs okay more people let more open jobs but personally rather than we've ever had the United States of America so this what we're doing here JP Morgan is a microcosm what we're doing around the world and some microcosm of the BRT is doing so what I'm about to say is happening everywhere so these business leaders as 200 CEOs and most companies do this by the way at the ground level or doing kinda what we're doing here so here it's six million dollars over you know three to five years to help high school kids get certain certifications such they can get the technology jobs which are right here okay we do the Amazon coming and people like us expand you know a lot of coins been there their jobs are here the people need training that's what it is and we do this in Detroit Indianapolis and San Francisco and there's a booklet which you can get of all the BRT companies of the hundred different things we do and now the BRT is doing it Michael 11 test kitchens we're going to 11 cities we have a bunch of the big companies but a bunch of the mayors and stuff to have you organizing what can we do to accelerate jobs it could be apprenticeships internships high school community college college it could be anything like that that gets kids well-paying great jobs and you know this will work it's got to be done by government and business it can't be done by government alone and it can't and and it can't be done against government you know so businesses need to help a government and vice versa so uh and here it's all that high-tech yeah so you know a lot of jobs from around the world will be really high tech related jobs what do you need from government I understand that it's hard to do it without the corporation's jumping in because you need to tell it exactly what you ready there here's an apprenticeship program that works in Denver comes out of Switzerland it works in Canada that high school kids you know thirty percent go to college 70 percent go to jobs and that byte will go to because you go to a job doesn't mean you can't go on to college afterwards but at apprenticeship so in tenth grade you spend a day a week there and eleventh grade you spend two days a week there and twelfth grade you've done three days a week there you get paid while you're there and you get credit for you learn because learning how to operate machine tools or computer stuff you get credit when you get out you already have a well-paying job because the local business help train you and so what is this going to do teach the teachers allow very quick certifications we can't go through six years of getting something like that certified get local businesses working there and there a lot of government pobres that have money that can help get these things accelerate around the country and the Americas be great at this and we've become terrible what happened and I'll give you another one which is you know part of this innovation thing is is his innovation is infrastructure so what have we done in America we put a man in the moon in eight years which did two things unbelievable capability and R&D and now 12 years to get the permits to build the bridge how did this nation of ours become so bureaucratic and of course having 12 years to build a bridge means the extra cost and uncertainty and what happens we reduced that to four years which they do in Canada by the way you know I assumed we could be as good as Canada something like that and and then innovation so the internet the health services the moon program huge innovation around it so RRD like 15 years ago was four times China today is equal to China okay and so we need and these coming to the R&D so you look at R&D and cap expenditures large companies take the two or three thousand large companies they're like seventy eighty percent of it and the American public's know that is what drives jobs and productivity and growth is those huge cap expenditures this huge R&D here you have Boeing's drones and you know AI around and and driverless cars and this is going to be unbelievable for America going forward and and this is the BRT try to make a real effort to try to improve society okay feel like you have a willing partner in the government right now are they listening do they hear what you say yeah I think you have to the administration yes because they want to get infrastructure done work skills jobs done they want to become you know the guidelines for businesses you know to have competitive tax systems which is equally important for innovation in the long run by the way and then when you go around the country another very important point some of the stuff we see this is really bad as federal as state and local you know just almost like this endless corruption to get sore tippers occupation or permis to build something or something like that so you know one of the things that all of us do is we work with local governments so some of them are fabulous I mean outstanding Detroit Mayor Duggan okay New Orleans and mayor Landrieu I mean something he's not there anymore but some some are just so political and bureaucratic and backwards they're not conducive to business those whole thing with Amazon looking at at cities it kind of brings out the cities if you want you become a you want to attract good jobs and therefore you need schools infrastructure the arts all those things that make it attractive that some would want to be in your city and stuff like that cut a competitive tax system but of local businesses if local governments hostile to business it's not going to happen so again once again it's got that to have to work together to have a successful society is that why you signed up for another year as the chairman of the Business Roundtable yeah so the BRT does you know we do tax and trade and immigration innovation and infrastructure and and we're trying to get policies it's the one organizations policy they're good for all of America and you know and it's shared success it's inclusive capitalism because we all know that we get society doing better in education more people involved the wages will be shared better across the board aside society half there will be more obviously far more jobs available and well-paying jobs and and so I think something like the BRT the chamber commerce have to do that so the folk the CEOs the BRT have done an exceptional job a real detailed level like today we're going out neck I think in a month we're gonna route innovation policies which you'll find really interesting and I think today we're going out privacy policies you know the piracy group led by Julie sweet did an unbelievable job to lay out what we think the principles of privacy should be for America port tide of privacy I think that's unbelievable I mean it takes that's 40 or 50 Cubby's working together to really think through the issues and we don't always all start at the same point now so it takes to do it before the regulator's do it yeah and hope you'll help them form smart regulation that's great for consumers that's great for businesses so who understand the requirements that compliance the execution risk of you know doing it right or not doing it right Jamie I want to go back to something you said earlier Adams this week or last week he made some comments just about what you see in terms of a recession being out there and the way it was reported was that you could see a recession potentially happening in 2020 I think you said maybe 2020 maybe 2021 do you actually see that or is it just beyond as far as you see there's no I I don't know I mean you guys always ask that question and no one knows and I think it's actually almost a waste of time to guess I was simply saying that there are a lot of things happening that may even come together at the wrong way in twenty eight twenty twenty or twenty twenty-one it's possible you know we've had and this is another very important thing 20 percent growth over ten years it should have been 40 percent that anemic growth is part of the reason you have lower capital expenditures but we didn't create enough of high paying jobs that people didn't have a lot of open up opportunity and it's it's like you're not the telling of the cycle but as possible this acceleration was seen is traditional to the last third of a cycle so it's possibly we got three years left and you know with more jobs and more wages and you still cap expenditures are still up by the way people not looking at the fact they're still up year over year they were they were up more in the first chord in the second quarter the third quarter but a lot of these companies and the think about tax reform wasn't what's the immediate fact we knew there's a media affects some people raise rages some announced plan some open another factory or two but the real effect is the cumulative return ssin of capital redeployed in productive uses in the United States for the rest of our lives that's the real effect and and and there are foreign officials I meet with now all the time you know they say you made it much tough for us to compete with American companies because they understand now that someone who can will build a plant here or build their company here put the research when before they definitely would have put it somewhere else okay and the the notion that somehow having uncompetitive taxes is good for our country is a crazy notion and I and I know people hear me say that I'd love to call me up because I don't understand how they think it's a good idea to have returns and remember the world was a forty percent and we were forty they came down to an average oh we see d20 we stayed at forty are you all that means that your average returns were twice as good if you had an opportunity to put a plant or a company overseas sometimes what why'd you want to create that environment you know and then obviously the individual side you could do things different you know the Business Roundtable supports the Earned Income Tax Credit so I want to get more income into lower pay people the most the CEOs do they support huge amount of sustainability you know mark Sutton international paper showed us today all the things all these companies are doing in a video which now I got two million people watched that with the CEO speak about all the wonderful things they're Cummins are doing JP Morgan will be I self a hundred percent green in like two or three years you know and so these are good things I think the American public to know about them and I think Steve Burke should put all what we're talking about here on NBC Morning News and NBC Nightly News so we educate the American public about why a a good business good business is really good for the country you
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