저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼은 최근 시장 급락의 원인으로 무역전쟁과 지정학적 리스크, 금리 상승을 꼽는다. 미국 경제는 여전히 강하다고 평가한다. CEO들의 주문장부가 좋고 소비자 재무상태와 임금이 상승하며, 올해 실업률이 3.3%까지 내려갈 수 있다고 본다. IMF 전망치 3.7% 성장은 세계적으로도 좋은 수준이라고 언급했다. 시장 하락의 핵심은 무역전쟁의 간접 효과, 즉 '얼마나 나빠질 수 있는가'에 대한 불확실성이다. 관세 가능성, 90일 협상 기한 등이 변동성을 키운다고 설명한다. 일부 기업은 공급망 변경과 투자 보류를 검토 중이며, 멕시코·미국·베트남·한국·중국 등 생산 입지 결정에도 영향을 준다고 했다. 경기침체 우려와 관련해 그는 장단기 금리 역전(yield curve)만으로 침체를 판단하기 어렵다고 보았다. 실제 현장에서는 여전히 성장이 확인된다는 입장이다. 협상 전망에 대해서는 90일 내 완전한 합의는 어렵지만 의미 있는 진전은 가능하며, 기한 연장 가능성이 높다고 봤다. 중국이 일부 기업의 산업 인수를 허용하고 지식재산권 문제를 인정하는 등 실제 변화가 보인다고 평가했다. 합의 성사 확률은 약 60% 대 40%로 제시했다. 리스크 요인으로는 화웨이 임원 체포와 미국인 구금 등 돌발 사건을 들었으며, 이런 사건이 협상에 도움이 되지 않는다고 지적했다. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 언급되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
because of the chaos in the markets today I'm hoping we can start there yeah markets down pretty substantially and I just wonder what you think is happening is this a real situation is this a fear factor or is this a factual factor that's driving stocks down it's a little boat it's a confluence of two things we still have a strong American economy so if you speak to most the CEOs they say the order books are good cut consumer balance sheets are good the economy growing wages going up they're still hiring people unemployment may very well hit three point three percent this year that's all good on the other side but you have a bunch of geopolitical stuff oil brexit but I think the one that's probably rut rolling the markets the most straight and the issue about trade is not just a direct effect that's the indirect effect that what how Bad's going to get what can go wrong and you know of course that fat tail of a trade war you know if you you know you wouldn't even think about that a year ago and that appealed to me but how bad can it get that's why you see its kind of swinging the marketplace and that with the added thing rates are going up and is it recessionary now I person think the yield curve it doesn't tell you that at all but you know that's the thought there maybe there's something in the Neil Cavuto you might have a recession so but what we all see in the actual facts on the ground is you still have growth in America that's a lot and growth in the world you know we just met with the IMF 3.7 percent this year and that's among one of the better growth for the world for not nothing this year next year 2019 but the fear factor the idea of the trade war which would you call a trade war now because they'll trace Garmisch put people pricing in how bad can it get and you know you have to like how bad can it get so when you say people are pricing it in you're talking traders or you're talking CEOs we're trying to figure out what little because you having a lot of people mentioned to be an issue so it's a minor issue for most companies but it's a big issue for some and some coming you know they have to change supply lines they have to make investments differently they may hold off on something because they need to know where to build a plant Mexico you know America Vietnam South Korea China those things just causing uncertainty which causes volatility are you hearing about specific companies that are pulling in plans that are saying we're gonna wait see what happens a couple yet but it's like I said take a hundred companies it's three four or five the other there's another five they'll tell you they're worried about it and they're thinking about it and it's affecting price a little button the bottle still tenders affect them so you know just but it's the uncertainty when you create uncertainty like this and you know with potential tariffs and doubling down and 90-day timelines you're gonna get a little bit of roiled markets traders and investors overall seem to feel a little better about things at least on Monday for a few hours after we got out of the g20 yeah and then we started thinking okay these are pretty complicated talks we've got 90 days to come up with solution where do you think we stand in 90 days look the I'm gonna tell you I think the likely outcome is that they make enough progress in 90 days an actual progress if you look at the Chinese they are actually allowing some companies to buy the industries they're talking about making actual immediate changes when they had their press release both about buying things and changing they acknowledge that IP is at issue and try to separate process to try to make IP no fixed IP so if they do that my guess is at the end of 90 days it'll get extended more they can't get it all done 90 days I think it's just too complicated to do that but again it creates another of a cliff you have to wait for 90 days to see what that means and so that kind of uncertainty is just not necessary good for markets most mean it works I hope they are these important issues get resolved you're hoping are you are you expecting what they want I again there's all the odds I give it a higher chance you know 60 percent versus 40 but the risk is always if something goes south you know we arrested the lady from well a huawei and you know what does that mean and you know the rumors now there's I heard they arrested some Americans and China and that kind of stuff is just not helpful you
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