저자: NickShane · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 단기적으로 취약하며 230~236달러 부근까지 조정 가능성이 있다는 기술적 분석 영상이다. 단기(30분봉): 넥라인 이탈 시 역헤드앤숄더형 하락 가능성을 언급하며, 236~234달러, 이상적으로 231~230달러 부근을 목표로 본다. 다만 예측이 아니라 기회 가능성이라고 강조한다. 중기(120분봉): 228~229달러 부근을 좋은 지지선으로 보며, 매수 측이 여전히 주도권을 가진 것으로 해석한다. 조정은 고점 재도전을 위한 리셋일 수 있으나, 뉴스 없이 바로 상승하기는 어렵다고 본다. 일봉·주봉·월봉: 과거 중요한 가격대였던 구간이 재차 저항 역할을 했다고 분석한다. 이번에 돌파에 성공하면 상승 여력이 크다고 보며, 280달러 부근까지 이론상 상승 가능성을 언급한다. 다만 한 번에 돌파하기는 어렵고 재시도가 필요하다고 본다. 월봉상 약 225달러 부근 노란 구간은 매수·매도 세력이 치열하게 맞붙는 지지 구간으로 보고, 238달러 이탈 시 풋옵션 매도 포지션 조정을 고려할 수 있다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 옵션 매도(풋 셀링) 중심으로 거래하며 주식은 직접 보유하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 실적 발표는 방향 예측이 어렵고 변동성이 크므로 이벤트 전 프리미엄 매도는 피하는 편이라고 말한다. 월가에서 머스크에 대한 신뢰가 줄었다는 취지의 의견도 밝힌다. 리스크: 실적 발표 전후 변동성, 연준 관련 시장 반응, 헤드라인 변수가 주요 리스크로 언급된다.
다듬은 글
hello traders Nick Shane here looking at Tesla I'm bracing for impact this is an emotional stock whatever I say is gonna piss off somebody somewhere so but there are some lines to look at short-term and long-term before you send hate mail if you're a long Tesla and don't like what I'm saying I last traded at long I sold puts into fear I closed them since then and I haven't looked at the chart in a few days and I just looked at it and I was impressed that it actually reached the 250 but there are important lines to watch now short and long term so this is that's that 30 minute chart so every candle is 30 minutes and technically it's tired it could it's vulnerable let me rephrase it's vulnerable to revisiting 234 ish this is not a forecast it's just a an opportunity to get there and let me show you how that happens I'll address the short-term what I see in the chart but doesn't mean that's what's going to happen this neckline is important to hold they're fighting over it today they're a little bit below it but if they lose it it looks like an inverse cup and handle now I'm not a technician but I do know how technicals work and I use them pretty well I ignore this and so losing this neckline could bring about a dip about this big according to technicians now I call this my ladybug because it looks kind of like a ladybug and if you draw legs you'll get yourself a ladybug with target and the target is here now all joking aside this would be the area of interest first there might be some support here but what's important is that on this time frame the sellers have controlled the rains believe it or not not the buyers according to my interpretation you can argue with that all you want but it's vulnerable to get down to 236 if not 234 and ideally 231 ish 230 why because this was the place of the last big battle neckline so here it was our until it wasn't right because they broke through it proved that its support so they broke above it that's perfect the Bulls it established the fact hey this is support and then they Riley above it so this whole zone is it's pretty interesting and I would imagine that it could become magnetic especially if the Fed reaction is negative in the stock market in general then why would Tesla run all by itself higher moreover where it failed is is has become the point of control for for the value of area so according to the price profile the volume profile tells me that they fought it hard here so it failed on a big fight if they ever come back to it it's not going to be easy to slice through it they're going to fail at it again my guess okay because they fought over it hard and they'll fight over at heart again meanwhile all the way down here will put us in a valley area for this period of time this is a short term chart but there's more information from the long term so according to this we're vulnerable to dip and let's go to 120 so now we see a little bit more information so this is 120 minute so to our charts to our candles this is the same area this is the 230 whatever level I said 231 232 this one right here right and now the point of control changes where they thought the hardest is right here so this should be support so if I thought that we were vulnerable to fall then it should be support level a good support level this zone into two 28 to 29 meanwhile the control here is still in the hands of the buyer on this time frame in my opinion so dips should be just resets in order to make higher highs but having had that funky candle here this basically closed the gap to here and left this on disaster earning reaction so I would imagine that this was the bail and market makers from their mistake up here so I wouldn't be too hopeful that we're going up there again anytime soon without a headline but if we do it will have a tremendous impact on upside potential so if they are able to they the Bulls the buyers I really don't care I don't short Tesla so if you think I'm sure it does I'm not okay so if they took all this time to come back to it they failed and then they managed somehow to come back to it again and they break above it gosh it's hard to see yellow and they break above it then there should be this much upside potential in theory you know obviously this would be an are level this would be in our level so I would trim trim and but technically it should be headed back to 280 taller this guy's nuts so I he would have to do some nutty things in order to get it back up daryun I don't think he has the benefit of the doubt on Wall Street anymore again don't hate me for saying it it's actually true all right so this is a daily chart and now we're getting a little smarter I'll tell you why because this is the point in time where I said this was to you know fix errors for big money but look at it and what is this I don't know what that is I have I don't remember when I drew this obviously a while back so I have to see where that came from and this doesn't surprise me that we failed almost exactly in the middle or at the top of this so I'm gonna go to a weekly candle for even clearer okay so if I erase and look at it has been an area of interest in before so I'm gonna take out all the drawings just pure chart this is a weekly chart in fact I'm gonna make it a monthly maybe we'll get it clear view okay monthly we'll make the same point let me see if I put back the drawings let's see if we locate the know the drawings are misplaced right now okay so I'll mark it up bring us back to the same conversation we were having earlier all right so this is clearly the poke that fixed the problems and where it failed clearly an important point in time clearly important point in time I would suggest that the zone was are throughout until X whatever that was 2017 bounced off support nice support nice so a couple of tests the third test failed and now they're coming back to it onus is on the Bulls once you lose the support once that my opinion you lose the support bonuses on the Bulls to recover it so not going to be butter meaning they're not going to shoot through it the first time in my opinion so once they come back to it they're going to do this and try it again if they're lucky they break through it again and then the next step would be to establish it as support in order to continue higher and then this would be in the next level to test so I don't think this happens you change colors your red pen sweet I don't think this happens on the first try and this is important to happen and this will happen my opinion so conclusion Tesla is vulnerable short term as we saw in the first chart and if it does to 31 to 30 could be a magnet but just below it there is good enough short-term support to hold it okay so now we're talking somewhere on here in fact according to this this is a monthly carrot every candle is one month there's a lot there should be a lot of I didn't even pay attention to it I didn't do it on purpose but this yellow line here is the is an area of interest in both bulls and bears so they will fight it hard here 225 they have gone lower but I think this will be some sort of support zone it's not a hard line in the sand so if that falls to 238 I may be compelled to self inputs like I did before and the actual boots I won't mention here so people don't go out and sell them crazy so there is some good news hidden in some short-term vulnerabilities how about that the upside potential bonus is definitely on the fools to take out this the next time to come to it and if they do then the second part is this is one the second part is to to prove that it's actually support so they can maintain and then this would be my exit point or at least anticipated forward resistance so I'm looking way forward and this I don't get stubborn I don't own the shares I've usually trade them via options it's easier for me that way selling puts in a stock like this is easier to swallow than actually buying the shares or even buying calls when I buy a call it's you know the bang for the buck it's great if I guess right otherwise times a killer and I'd rather be selling premium than buying premium one-time ticks I don't like to sell premium into events because of earnings and this one doesn't have a good habit on earnings at least it's violent and the short term reaction to earnings is completely binary so I don't know anything better than I don't know how the market will react to the earnings regardless of the actual numbers even they deliver great numbers if they say something wrong stocks come about anyway my look at Tesla you have any questions let me know join us in the chat room if you want it's a lot of fun
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