저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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테슬라는 트럼프 당선 이후 머스크-트럼프 관계와 정책 기대로 급등했으며 기존 밸류에이션 잣대로는 설명이 어렵다는 주장. 넷플릭스·팔런티어 등 과거 상승 사례를 '컬트 주식'과 '40 규칙' 관점으로 회고하고, 2025년에도 정통 밸류에이션을 벗어난 종목을 찾아야 한다는 결론. 정유 마라톤페트롤리엄은 트럼프의 유가 하락 선호를 근거로 주가 하방 우려를 언급.
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t money welcome to Kramer AR entertain teach educate call me 1 800 743 CBC tweet at Jim Kramer sometimes the action in the stock just seems so obvious yet you only notice it after it happens so to day we were all anticipating what the febble do on Wednesday with the Dow dipping 111 points as be advancing 38% nasda gaining 1.24% to record high by the way I think it's worth reflecting on why we didn't grab hold of certain opportunities ones that in retrospect seem so obvious so we don't miss similar ones in the future the first mistake we made and I am speaking collectively was in truly believing that the fundamentals always matter I know from experience that this is just not always true for example there there are these cult stocks these are stocks where what's happening at the company and what's happening in the stock are two very different animals but unlike meme stocks Colt stocks have such a loyal shareholder base they can trade independently of the business for years and years most obvious example Tesla this rally since the election is one for the ages it's a move that in retrospect everyone should have seen coming right I mean why not Elon Musk has been all in with the winner of the presidential election the electric cars are doing much better than everyone else's full self-driving could be around the corner but now let's look at what might have kept you out of the stock if you go back in time to when we found out that Elon was a big-time Trump supporter the media was filled with how long will that last chatter the president-elect is famously Mercurial while Elon Musk is obviously brilliant but equally arbitrary and capricious the idea that these two could bond in any way before they clashed seemed inevitable Plus Electric Vehicle sales they were seeking everywhere we saw adoption slow for all EVS including Tesla in the United States the competition in China it became Cutthroat mus Tesla is a relatively high cost producer numbers the estimates they kept going lower plus was this lawsuit about him getting his bonus where it wasn't clear that he'd stick around as CEO if he lost too easy to P to some other part of his Empire now of course the reality turned out to be quite different but it was easily missed by the Numbers guys in Wall Street first the public is back into the stock market bigger than ever the public doesn't listen to Wall Street research many don't even know what it is others think it's worthless the public do one key thing that the analyst didn't musk was incredibly close to Trump spent hundreds of millions to helping them win so as long as Trump won Tesla was going to be a huge winner and you had to be on board you had to believe it was like a it was like a sport team as it is it turns out Tesla has more driving on self data than Google back competitor wh data that Trump will buy into maybe in Crown Tesla the full self-driving winner versus the peace Mill City by by City approach of wayo maybe it gives them the whole interstate highway system I don't know it also helped the GM dropped out of the self-driving taxi business making must view more of a reality Tesla is much more than just a vehicle company it's a tech company on Wheels of course Tesla's up 86% for the year with nearly all that coming after the election when we realized not only is musk tight with president-elect Trump he's helping reform the government to Trump's liking doing a lot of this or he plans to once you get a CEO with that kind of political influence it's easy for the faithful to imagine the unlimited possibilities which means they're no longer constrained by the price to earnings multiple they'll pay anything for Tesla much higher than these prices they're actually insensitive to price oh and did I mention that brokerage firm mizuo just upgraded the stock from hold to buy off an improving Outlook under the Trump Administration a few minutes after the market closed next up Netflix what the heck were we thinking when we didn't know Netflix is there a week that goes by where we don't talk about a Netflix show the big linear TV networks like to do expensive shows about fires and hospitals and police fire country Hospital PD it's been their formula since the 1970s they just keep doing the same thing failing each year but n and they come up with things like Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson and it did huge viewership numbers I tried to get it like what the hell was that with the it didn't work at least when I was trying but it didn't matter millions of people watched it we're 10 days from the start of squid game to take that fire country we watch all sorts of pro What The Hell Fire we get all sorts of programing from other countries because we've been taught by Netflix to like subtitles it's insane how good this company is honestly convincing Americans to reach subtitles that may be the most important cultural event of the 21st century and yet Wall Street doubted Netflix the whole way when it came to their new ad supported subscription tier they didn't get a perfect right out of the box they told us well many of these who followed the company presumed it was a bus oh it was hardly a bus and it's just going to get bigger and bigger it's easy to say of course that uh it wasn't you anyone could have had it but those who spend their lives exam liing this company thought otherwise they said stay away and they're the professionals who are we that doubt the professionals they doubted the ader who are we to doubt them and then there's the multiple the darn priced earnings multiple Netflix was always selling for 50 times earnings which is just too high for the people who care about valuation those people aren't the general public they aren't the home Gamers and the home Gamers who love Netflix they won cold stock cold stock that's up 89% for the year that was easy then there's paler now this enterprise software SL defense contractor is a real company I mean like totally real it has a tremendous business model could change the entire defense department budget but in some ways paler is a renegade company playing by its own rules like AMC the Theater chain the CEO actually caters not to Wall Street but to Main Street individual investors the difference is that when it comes to Enterprise software you don't use price Journey model models you use this difficult to understand rule of 40 where you add the revenue growth rate to the ea.
margin if the sum is above 40 then you got a winner most companies that are losing money can't reach that number but some can if they have incredible Revenue growth pal here appear to be losing money hand over fist but it passed the rule of 40 tests with flying colors since then the growth's been accelerating rapidly the profits are exploding it's among the fastest growers in the entire industry top of the rule of 40 plus like Tesla pounds you're tight with Trump so why didn't we see it because the CEO was too Brash and the actual business too opaque uh By Nature what they do is secretive but there are plenty of renegade Traders and investors see they saw it the kind who made money and got out of AMC near the high when the co sold the kind who made 100 or 200 bucks on GameStop these people bought paler on CEO Alex carp's say so to them it was worth a lot more than anything else even as it was worth nothing to the Wall Street analyst who covered it now paler made a major breakout it is up 340% for the year seems obvious in retrospect but it was anything but at the time a stock that's been gun by retail that now because it's about to have a real earnings breakout is finally being beloved by institutions oh and the individuals who still still like it they start their buying at 400 a.m.
and they walk it up right into the opening it's wondrous to B get up early and see it happen on the crawl sometime but I don't look you don't even have to worry they do the same thing at 4 pm right after the closing belt they take it up maybe like 30 cents 50 cents usually about a Buck here's the bottom line there's a lesson here and it's a brutal one sometimes conventional methods of valuation are completely worthless and you need to embrace the Dynamics of CT stocks House of pleasure the trick is to recognize when we're in one of those moments in 2025 let's do this let's strive Define the stocks of companies that do defy Orthodoxy some will prove to be wrong but if 2024 is any guide the ones that prove to be right will more than make up for any of those losses I'm going to start the question with Tommy in Texas Tommy yes Jim Tommy uh yes Bo you my question concerns the refineries uh specifically Marathon petroleum uh Where Do We Go From Here buy sell or hold right well I I think that our view uh our view is that President Trump is very uh uh president-elect Trump very much wants oil to come down uh in price in order to be able to offset any inflation from tariffs and I think he's going to make good for that and that's getting people out of the stocks and I'm not going to go against that Orthodoxy let's go to Ian in Virginia Ian Jim how's it going would love to hear a little bit about TKO seems like they have some pretty big opportunities with 2025 Sports rights renewals as well as some continued synergies and then some big opportunities for WWE with uh International expansion and sponsorship Revenue love the show Merry Christmas Jim thank you and same to you and I think you're right this company's heavily motivated to go higher they just insist it's really a Wonder to behold I'm not getting in front of it I mean I just think if you want to own it be my guest all right as we reach the end of the year it's worth thinking about the reasons why certain stocks shot up in 2024 in 2025 I'll be looking for stocks that defy Orthodoxy well man money tonight can the home buers keep heading higher I'm investigating if some signs of weakness could shake up the bull runs Foundation then I'm checking up on a sector that I think is right with opportunity I'm kicking off a series where I'll reveal some topar names to keep an eye on and later with the shares of Marell technology up over 100% this year I've got the CEO to break down what's behind this massive move and whether there's more behind it and
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