저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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Yardeni는 연준이 12월 금리인하를 하지 말았어야 한다고 봄. 주식·금·비트코인이 사상최고치이고 실질 GDP가 강하며 실업률 4%, 인플레이션 2% 근처라 금리가 적정 수준이라는 논리. 1월에는 세금 부담과 포트폴리오 리밸런싱으로 매도 압력이 있을 수 있으나 매수 기회로 보며 2025년 말 S&P500 7,000 전망. 트럼프 정책의 친기업 효과는 이미 상당 부분 반영됐다고 봄. 2017년 세금감면 만료 및 의회 교착 등 정책 불확실성 언급.
다듬은 글
let's take a closer look at the SM the markets this morning and this week joining us right now for that is Ed yardeni he's yardeni researchers president um and we've got a big week coming up we've got the FED meeting that we've all been waiting for followed by a couple other central banks that are going to be meeting this week as well um are you expecting anything other than the FED to cut 25 basis points well I wish they wouldn't but they're not going to listen to me they're going to do what they want to do and what they seem to be signaling is they want doe 25 basis points um it's been increasingly described as possibly being a hawkish cut meaning that they'll cut 25 basis points and then Fed chair Jerome poell in his press conference will uh take take back any notion that uh it's there going to be a lot more Cuts right away I think there could be a signal that there will be a pause why do you wish they wouldn't cut well look U I think the reason they want to cut is they they have this uh perception the uh level of the FED funds rate is too restrictive and that just does enive with what the markets are saying I mean are they are they looking at do they have a screen in their office they should see that the stock market's at an all-time high gold is an alltime high Bitcoin is an all all-time high and then of course the economic data is extremely strong we've got real GDP and all-time high and it's been increasing around 3% on a year-over-year percent basis yeah inflation has come down it's closer to 2% but it seems to be getting a little sticky here kind of getting stuck a little bit north of of 2% uh but look uh the goal here is to have full employment well check that we're around 4% and we've got uh an inflation rate that's close to 2% so everything to me suggests that interest rates are just about where they should be yeah the commentary that we've gotten from the FED also gets into this idea that okay we're going to cut this time potentially but then we're going to slow it down and look around because we want to see how things are changing if that's the case I'm with you why not wait and then cut in January if you think that there's still need for it yeah and the last word we got from Fed chair Jerome Paul was uh the economy is strong and uh we're we we don't need to rush to lower interest rates if that's the case then why would you do something uh on Wednesday yeah I I think I'm in your camp on that let let's assume they go ahead with this cut sure uh what are the potential dangers to that I I think the biggest one I could think of is is that if inflation really does come back up they're going to have to reverse course and they're going to have more ground to make up for if you add this other 25 basis points now yeah I think there is a bit of a credibility issue here um I think U more more of us that are kind of looking at it from the outside from outside the FED are kind of wondering where they're coming up with the idea that interest rates are restrictive but uh the the uh the risk is a melt up it's not exactly the end of the world uh the the problem with the word melt up is it uh clearly implies a meltdown I mean we'll know it was a melt up if there was a meltdown but it doesn't have to be a repeat of 1999 2000 it could be kind of a wicked correction that uh I don't think it's going to be a bare Market because I don't see a recession out there uh but um meanwhile uh right up ahead here um I think there's going to be a lot of selling in January uh there's tremendous capital gains and there might be more of them between now and year in and the traditional Santa Claus rally and I think a lot of people are going to want to rebalance their portfolios maybe they they have too much Nvidia too much apple too much Tesla and so there could be some significant rebalancing which means selling but on the other hand there'd be some buying but I I think all in all it will be an opportunity to buy and I look for the market to end the next year at 7,000 but the the reason you think the selling will come is because people will wait till January so they don't have to pay the tax bill for another year I think that and and the recognition that uh the fed's done for a while okay that that's an interesting point which is more important the the idea that the FED may be done or concern about any you know there's a lot of enthusiasm in the business World about President Trump coming in with these new policies that are much more friendly to business um the concern on on the other side of that is what happens with tariffs what happens can we get the tax bill passed again um all of those issues kind of like going from okay this is great in theory to okay now we have to work out the details I think that's absolutely correct I think there's the theory and then there's the reality and the reality has to deal with a lot of political Intrigue in in Washington a lot of it takes it takes a while to get these things through uh you know when Trump came in during this first term uh the tax cuts uh didn't uh happen until the end of 2017 and they weren't implemented until 2018 so it could take a while to get these things through I know that the uh president and his advisers would like to uh RAM through uh the whole program in in one big big Bill the problem with that is there's a lot of moving parts and you it's kind of like take Taking various medications for the the same ailment and not checking out what the interactions are so there's there could be some unintended consequences some positive some some negative but uh all in all I think it does add up to a pro business attitude and I think the the market uh has already discounted a lot of that yeah the 2017 tax package those tax cuts um they expire if they are not passed again this year right it's kind of been this understanding that don't worry those tax cuts are going to continue um because neither side neither Democrats nor Republicans would like to raise taxes when it comes on some of these issues um but maybe that's a little too simple when you understand how the sausage gets made in Washington how ugly that can be the president does not have a a big majority it's only three votes and actually in the beginning of the term it'll be one vote in the house um has anybody kind of thought through what happens if those tax cuts don't get passed or is that just an unthinkable kind of like not not that's that's again that's a great Point Becky I think the uh fact of the matter is the founders came up with the systems of checks and balances on Wall Street and the financial Community we call the gridlock and that's a conceivable scenario it is a very uh close margin they have in the house and uh it could it could take a while
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