저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 특정 종목 매매 권유보다 에너지 정책, 규제, 공산주의 경제 실패를 비판하는 거시·정책 담론이다. [에너지 정책] 탄소중립 목표(2050 Net Zero)는 현실적으로 불가능하며 단계적 접근이 필요하다고 주장. 화석연료(탄화수소)는 과도기 연료로 필수적이라고 함. [전기요금] 미국 전기요금은 최근 10년간 46% 상승, 2030년까지 추가 약 40% 상승 전망. 2010~2030년 사이 전기요금이 사실상 두 배가 된다고 주장. 풍력·태양광 발전 능력은 축소된 것처럼 언급. [인프라] 미국 송전망 업그레이드에 향후 10년간 약 2조 달러 필요. 송전선 노후(20~30년), 발전 인프라 취약, 피커(첨두발전) 부족, 에너지 저장 능력 부족 지적. [원전·셰일] 원전 폐쇄 움직임과 셰일가스 규제에 비판적. [인플레이션감축법(IRA)] 의약품 가격 협상 및 처방약 본인부담 상한(2,000달러)이 제약사의 R&D 모델을 바꿔 연구 인력 감축과 AI(알파폴드) 기반 전환을 초래할 것이라고 주장. 맥도날드의 로봇 도입 사례를 들어 자동화에 따른 고용 감소를 우려. [공산주의·소련] 고르바초프의 페레스트로이카는 소련의 낮은 생산성과 품질 문제 때문이었으며, 중앙계획경제의 한계를 강조. 자유시장 자본주의가 자유와 의사결정 자율성을 준다고 주장. [정책 평가] IRA는 향후 3~5년 내 실패가 드러날 '실험'이라고 비판. 에너지 독립과 국가안보 측면의 장기적 효과에 대해서는 언급하지만 결론은 부정적. [출연자 전망] 명시적인 종목별 가격 전망은 없음. 전반적으로 정책 리스크와 에너지 인프라 투자 필요성을 강조.
다듬은 글
we don't have time for this if you actually believe this is a cataclysmic issue you need to basically be okay with hydrocarbons because it is the only credible Bridge fuel we have to keep the world working properly because otherwise what David said is right we are going to economically destroy parts of the world by trying to race towards this Net Zero goal by the way guys I just want to take the the you know rip the Band-Aid off no not not even the market McDonald's is not stupid they understand how to use Excel and so they'll think well I can amortize a robot versus actually jacking up um prices because what McDonald's understands is the sensitivity of pricing to demand for their product yeah that's right right I mean they are the most intelligent about how they price every anything at the sort of the lower end where you're capturing you know nickels and dimes they are the most sophisticated and understanding Supply demand and and and the curves and so to think that they're not going to just invest heavily now at the corporate level the next franchisee of McDonald's will still pay a million dollars for franchise fee but we'll give we'll be given a bevy of robots that they run for McDonald's and they'll have to hire half or a third less that's that's the real shame of this which is the number of people that should actually be gainfully employed in the economy will then shrink again but in this case it was because legislators just completely don't understand how incentives work and how the economy Works uh the inflation reduction act you know we granted CMS and Medicare the ability to negotiate drug prices and we actually also capped the total prescription cost that any American can pay at two thousand dollars now it turns out that overwhelmingly most Americans will never spend two thousand dollars a year on prescription medications but there will be a few and they bump up against drugs that cost millions of dollars so there was a you know there's a drug for you know uh SMA um that's like you know 2.4 million and like you know beta thalassemia of like 2.8 million and you're and and we will all bear the cost of that now if CMS and Medicare go and really crunch those costs what is Pharma gonna do well Pharma is going to do what is the obvious thing which is like if you're going to cap what I can make I have to completely change my R D model and they're just going to use Alpha fold you know and what it's really going to do is potentially put a bunch of research scientists out of work and those are folks that should probably in the you know for our general future be gainfully employed but the nature of their job is going to change completely because the economic capitalist incentive of big Pharma is going to move towards technology which is you know an alpha full and their protein library is the equivalent of AI and automation for McDonald's so this is where again governments have to be super careful that they understand what's actually happening because they're creating incentives I think that they don't completely understand what is the point the point is these conversations can so quickly go off the rails and are not about National Security and economics and quickly become about moral virtue signaling that you missed the point the point in the United States just to be very blunt is that the cost of electricity has gone up by 46 percent in the last decade it will go up by another 40 odd percent through 2030.
so between 2010 and 2030 the cost of electricity for every single American will have effectively doubled even though the ability to generate particularly from wind and solar have been reduced by 90 now why is that well it turns out that if you look inside the P L's of these utilities it actually gives you the answer so over the next 10 years we have to spend as a nation just on upgrading power lines two trillion dollars this is all cap this is all like crazy crazy Opex right capex improvements for sunk cost Investments our power line infrastructure in America is 20 plus years old 30 years old Our Generation infrastructure is pretty poor we have all of these failures we don't have enough peakers we don't have ability to store energy when we need it so if you add this all up I do think that there's a huge economic incentive to solve it and there are practical ways to solve it and that's what we have to stay focused on because if we allow the moral virtue signaling to get in the way we're going to make some really stupid decisions we're going to keep trying to turn off nuclear another thing that Elon said you know we're we're not going to Green Light uh Shale in that gas we don't have time for this if you actually believe this is a cataclysmic issue you need to basically be okay with hydrocarbons because it is the only credible Bridge fuel we have to keep the world working properly because otherwise what David said is right we are going to economically destroy parts of the world by trying to race towards this Net Zero goal by the way guys I just want to take the you know rip the Band-Aid off and that Zero by 2050 26 it is not possible there is zero credible plans that the world has to do it so we have to take small incremental steps and many yes the retaining walls could have been built better but these are things we find we iterate and we solve it was not the reason to shut down an entire mechanism of energy generation stupid mistakes where they put it just too low in the wrong place if they just put it up what the hell a couple of miles it would have been fine but also if you look inside of what happened there was enormous pressure inside of these companies to basically you know take take actual direct blame and responsibility I get all of that but these organizations were shamed into turning these things off that is not the way to make good smart decisions but the most important thing in my opinion was the precursor to prayer strika and why he did it and as you said like you know this is a fairly art and communist although he had really interesting views like he ran a very kind of like open um kind of poly Bureau where folks could debate and he uh you know promoted a lot of young people from within all of these interesting things but the most important thing and he's written about this a lot is the reason that he embarked on perestrika was because USSR at the time had an incredibly poor work ethic terrible productivity and horrible quality Goods and I think that there's something to be learned by that because at the tail end of Communism essentially where you had Central planning Central imposed economic principles what happened people did not feel that they had any ownership in the outcome it's happening where we live right now and if you look at then what happened afterwards it became the aristocracy that basically ruled the USSR before and then fighting against all these folks that wanted reforms and that created the Schism which then perverted capitalism for you know seven or eight years through Yeltsin until Putin got there and that's what created the oligarch class and you know really exacerbated a bunch of wealth capture by a handful of folks that may or may not have deserved it and I'm not going to judge that but I just think it's really important to understand that he was forced to embark on this because all of these State Central planning policies and so it's just an important lesson for Americans in democracy empirical evidence well documented of just how it doesn't work and I guess the thing is you know we all say like you just have to learn it for yourself you know like you'll tell your kids to do it to not do something add infection yeah they got to touch the stove themselves and get burned we are about to go do that in California can you imagine if like people who want to be socialists here and who bind to us if it had to be in a food line or have rations literally Russia had food lines and they were rationing food in the 1980s like well yeah yeah a large driver of Gorbachev basically negotiating these peace settlements with you know with Reagan and this nuclear you know demilitarization was in part because he knew he couldn't fight they were losing this is and this is why like people should not misunderstand what Gorbachev was he was not necessarily some democratic Freedom Fighter he was a person who was observing the on the ground conditions of a socialist system Decay their ability to compete and so he had to capitulate before it was forced upon him and it was because Reagan was able to sit on top of an extremely productive capitalist system that allowed him to make those Investments that made that capitulation basically affect the complete and I think that that's another thing for a lot of us to to understand which is free market capitalism removing these degrees of decision making give us degrees of freedom and I've said this before on the last part the great thing about the IRA and what Chuck Schumer did is actually will be written in 10 or 15 years from now because when we get to energy Independence when every home is resilient the National Security calculus in America changes wholeheartedly overnight the great thing is we have a running a B test which will show whether this state Central planning can work or not and again if we refuse to want to listen to the examples of Russia or all of these other countries that have tried this then so be it we will know in the next three to five years that these policies actually don't work and actually that it actually accelerates the exact hellscape that they think they're trying to avoid
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