저자: Scotty · 외국인
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브로드컴(AVGO) 실적 발표(8/31) 앞두고 펀더멘털·밸류에이션 분석. 2010년 이후 주가 약 8,500% 상승, 매출·영업이익·FCF 꾸준히 성장. 부채 약 400억달러로 재무구조는 우려. 내재가치 계산 시 주당 약 567달러로 현재가(약 851달러) 대비 고평가 판단. 기술적으로 1,000달러 저항, 650달러 지지 확인, 400달러대 저점은 매수 관심 구간으로 제시.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone it's Scotty with moneybus so in this video we are going to be talking about broadcom ticker symbol a v g o this has been a very very popular stock because they are going to be reporting earnings later this week and I've been getting a lot of questions on this company so I figured I'd do a video we haven't really touched on broadcom all that much we've talked about it during our live streams but I've never really done a dedicated video on this company so we're going to take a look at the earnings expectations intrinsic value calculation of course we'll take a look at the all fundamentals every single thing Revenue earnings margins cash flows everything is going to be discussed in this video as always if you enjoy it link to our Discord on patreon is going to be down below don't forget there is a 16 annual discount available till the end of this month so another three to four days left if you want to take advantage of that and of course get access to all the alerts and all the members only private videos and we do have our Labor Day sales starting a little bit early coupon code labor four and that's going to give you disk counts for fundamental technical analysis options courses and even the bundles are all 50 to 60 off so links are going to be down below coupon code labor four if you want to take advantage of that as well so this right here is going to be the earnings expectations for broadcom 10.43 on a non-gaap basis Gap basis eight dollars and sixteen cents with revenues just shy of 9 billion dollars with 19 upward revisions uh for the company in the last 90 days and they are going to be reporting on August 31st after the Market's close the stock price has been nothing but absolutely beautiful since 2010 it has been on a consistent bull market here going from ten dollars to almost nine hundred dollars that's an eight thousand five hundred percent increase during that time just absolutely incredible chart this is exactly the whole idea of investing right you want something that is not going to be stressful you want something that's consistently moving in the right direction you want to be able to invest in these types of companies more passively and then just really forget about them 10 years later 20 years later you are up nine thousand ten thousand percent right that's one of the most beautiful things with investing is that it can really accelerate your accumulational wealth can really generate wealth right saving is not going to get you there investing well so talking a little bit about the company's fundamentals here by the way they do operate in the semiconductor uh chips sector very similar to AMD Nvidia a lot of these companies uh semiconductor Solutions and infrastructure software are the two main segments but semiconductor Solutions is primarily how the company generates Revenue these are some of the business segments so Broadband end-to-end Solutions when it comes to Connected devices customer premises service providers this right here wireless mobile device connectivity Industrial Automation renewable and automotive and we got software Enterprise class Solutions as well with respect to cyber security identity management and payment security as well so there's a lot of different businesses within a broad con that they operate in this is the revenue absolutely nominal growth here going from 20 billion dollars in 2018 to over 33 billion dollars as of last year and gross margins have been very stable very strong consistently growing from 66 67 percent to over 75 and free cash flow also growing from just under 9 billion to over 16 billion dollars in the last five years and adjusted ebitda has also gone from 11 billion to 21 billion dollars it's more than doubled almost doubled in the last uh five years for the company as well right so very strong numbers a very very high quality and he can go back he's in as even as far as 2013 when they were doing 2.5 billion that's grown to over 33 billion dollars that's over a 12 to 14x growth gross profits gone from 1.2 billion to 25 billion and operating income has gone from just about half a billion dollars to over 14.2 billion dollars so every very it's very very strong metrics here every single metric moving in the right direction you can see the bar graph this is just beautiful right this is what we look for every single year consistently growing and of course moving in the right direction now moving forward to actual bottom line so net income has been a little bit more back and forth It's not been as consistent as the other parts of the business so it's gone from like 552 million to almost 11.5 billion so it's still grown in the last you know 10 years or so but obviously that volatility with that fluctuations some years it's been profitable some years I mean 2016 for example generated losses and then we started to see decline significant decline in 2019 um and then once once again started to re-accelerate back uh in terms of that profitability uh shares outstanding have been pretty stagnant I would say since 2018 they've been around 420 430 million but of course in the early years they were diluting a lot of shareholders eBay does also moved in the right direction from 765 million to almost 20 billion dollars for the company as well very strong margins a 74 gross margins we've got ebitda margins at 57 net margins is almost 40 percent and return on the common Equity capital and assets is also fantastic and take a look at this net income per employee 684 a thousand dollars that's up from about 363 000 on a five-year average basis the company is becoming more and more efficient that's a very good number right there because their net income is growing it's actually almost doubled in the last uh in the last year compared to their five year average with fewer employees right so that's a very very good sign of efficiency operating efficiency from the company now when it comes to balance I'm actually quite surprised the company does have a lot of debt uh 39 almost 40 billion dollars worth of debt uh cash is sitting at 11.5 billion dollars net debt just a little bit under 28 billion dollars so it doesn't really make them super appealing from a balance sheet perspective current ratio quick ratio is good at a little bit over two just under two for the quick ratio when you take inventories out and get to free cash flow sitting at 3.6 so we look for this number under three so free cash flow is good but they do have a lot of debt which is actually a little bit surprising for a Semiconductor Company with such high margins this right here is a valuation so despite the fact that broadcom's trading at an all-time high I would say on a price to earnings basis valuation is actually quite reasonable still higher than its five-year average we've got price of sales sitting at just a little bit under 10 close to 10 price to cash flow at 19 to 20 times right so it is still a little bit of an expensive stock from a Priceless sales perspective but other metrics cash flow perspective earnings perspective it is a little bit reasonable not really cheap but not expensive either and this right here is going to be those earnings expectations from 42 dollars expected to grow to over 58 dollars per share so if you plug in these numbers of 42 to 50 58 if you plug in those numbers here let's just do 42 to 58 dollars by 2027 we're looking at so for 58.52 pretty precise here and 4212 and that's going to be in 2028 starting in 2023 I believe yep so I 2027 was correct there so that's going to be at eight and a half percent growth for the company over the next three to four years um and again we're gonna go and plug in 431 since 2017 uh in 2022 we're sitting at 420 so it's about half a percent share buyback every single year so we're looking at net income of just over 17.6 uh billion dollars on a non-gaap basis so if you plug in let's say eight percent growth rate for the company the P multiple I'm not gonna go over 20 because 20 seems a little too high for a company that's actually growing or expected to grow by eight percent over the next three to four years so that again is going to be in the mid single digits low single digits for growth rates so I'm gonna go with you know 14 to 16 times earnings multiples unless let's do 16.
that PEG ratio is going to be pretty expensive at two uh discount rate I mean they do pay out a dividend I believe so that two percent dividend so we can go a little bit lower on the discount rate at 10 10 margin of safety and about half a percent in share buyback we come down to the fair value of 567 dollars and right now it's trading at 851 so we are certainly uh a little bit more on the expensive side a lot of it has to do with the price to earnings multiple compressions so P multiple coming down from 20 to 16.
look what happens if I jump that up to 20 fair value jumps up to 709 right and Market might be pricing in a little bit of a higher growth rate as well maybe 10 is what they're pricing in and now we get up to 777 maybe 12 is what the Market's pricing in and now we're getting closer and closer there we go 850 right on the dot so this is what the market is pretty much estimating 12 growth rate and a 20 times P multiple that's exactly we're extruding at the moment but I'm gonna be again a little bit more conservative with the analyst estimates and of course pricing in from what I know uh in terms of previous price earnings multiple I'm going to be a little bit lower and my favorite value is going to be closer to 567 dollars per share now in terms of technical is here this right here is going to be the technical analysis very nice consistent uptrend it's coming up to its higher high so every time it's gotten up to that level it's seen a little bit of a pullback so right now we are once again sitting at its higher high and that's going to be sitting roughly around a thousand dollars per share and support level is going to stay put down to 649 650 so this right here very nice potential support previous resistance it's not been validated yet but all resistance levels do turn into new support levels so that's going to be a level to watch and of course all the way down to low 400s is where I would be very interested in potentially dollar cost averaging or starting a new position in this company because we've got that Confluence of this higher low within that uptrend and of course we've got that previous horizontal support from the uh from the October 2022 level as well I mean since then it has rallied a little bit over 113 right so very very strong momentum back higher however I'm still concerned a little bit about the balance sheet so that's still going to be something that we will look into eventually uh but right now again low 400 is going to be a level where I do believe uh broadcom is going to be undervalued at those prices is so hope you guys enjoyed this video and found it helpful if you did make sure you drop a like don't forget uh link to our Discord patreon is going to be down below with that 16 annual discount and of course the Labor Day Sale is on coupon code labor four if you want to get access to all these courses and of course get access to all the video lectures and member benefits as well so as always happy investing and I'll see you all in the next video
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