저자: KathyWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 테슬라 2026년 목표가를 4,600달러로 상향(기존 3,000달러)했고, 모델 기준 상단 5,800달러·하단 2,900달러이며 시가총액 약 5조 달러로 본다. 출연자(TipRanks 진행자)는 캐시 우드의 전망을 조롱만 할 일이 아니라 상당 부분 타당하다고 평가했다. 현재 적정가치는 주당 약 1,500달러로 보았다. 근거로 최고 수준의 마진, 강력한 브랜드 충성도, 높은 수요(인도 대기 6개월 이상), 최고 소프트웨어, 슈퍼차저 네트워크, 광고 없는 무료 PR을 들었다. 레거시 자동차 사업부가 없어 개발 속도도 빠르다고 보았다. 경쟁 위협에 대해서는 2008년 아이폰 등장 당시 경쟁 우려가 있었지만 애플이 오히려 성장한 사례를 들어 경쟁을 크게 우려하지 않았다. 경영진에 대해서는 일론 머스크가 5년간 매출을 약 10배(50억→550억 달러대) 키웠다고 평가했다. 로보택시, 에너지 사업, 자율주행 소프트웨어 라이선싱, 슈퍼차저 네트워크 라이선싱 등 현재 모델에 반영되지 않은 추가 수익원이 있다고 언급했다. 로넌 배런도 유사한 가치평가를 제시하며 주식을 팔지 않고 있다고 소개했다. 출연자는 캐시 우드가 옳았다고 보며, 머스크에 반대로 베팅하는 것은 위험하다고 말했다. 다만 자신의 의견이며 투자 자문이 아니라고 덧붙였다. 주요 리스크로는 과도한 밸류에이션에 대한 조롱과 이미 높은 분석 관심도가 언급되었다.
다듬은 글
kathy wood tesla it's a really fiery combination and the queen of tesla is out again with a new target price 4 600 as you can see on the screen right now for 2026 this is the expected value they got on their model it can go according to the model all the way to 5 800 and the bear case is at 2 900 we're talking of course about 2026 but based on the expected value kathy wood and arkans think tesla should be worth five trillion dollars in 2026 so let's talk about the good the bad and the ugly because this is a real treat now first of all kathy wood you know she's been dragged through the mud lately she's not been doing so well that doesn't mean that she doesn't know what she's talking about now look they just updated the target price for 4 600.
now previously the existing target price for them was 3 000. it's a big jump you got to remember where they started so three grand was already three times more than what the current price is and they just raised it to 4 600. now look you also got to look at the bulk case and the bear case but essentially kathy wood is projecting a 5 trillion valuation within the next four years that's going to be easy to laugh at her it's kind of this reverse midas lady you know everything she touches to orange the opposite of gold whatever that is but you know she's actually on point here and i'll explain why even though it sounds crazy first of all you gotta remember she's not the only one who's giving out these valuations ron barron i mean he's a billionaire i mean what's the difference between ron baron and warren buffet both billionaires both made a lot of money and there's a billionaire sitting across the desk basically saying he agrees with kathy wood for the evaluation part at least so ron barron has a very similar valuation for tesla he hasn't sold any shares and it doesn't seem like he's going to and she's actually talking into a really bad situation because look the thing with the tesla stock in general that this is by definition the most analyzed stock on the market with everyone and their dad they got something to say about tesla stock it's beyond analyzed and look she's taking a shot here she's taking risks talking about this because i'm assuming she knows there's going to be a lot of hit coming her way but look let's talk about some facts why i think she's not off here i think she might be right with 4 600 in four years now i think today the company is probably fair value at 1500 so it still seems a little bit far right if i'm thinking 1500 today how could i agree with what she's saying here well look look at the data look at the fundamentals not stories not visions not what might or might not happen i'm not going to mention any robot taxis i'm not going to mention any energy business just the current business that's actually producing revenue okay okay best margins in the business check cult following check this is literally like the iphone they have a cult brand there's not a lot of cult brands out there so best margins called brand plenty of demand people are waiting more than six months for a tesla they have other alternatives they're waiting for a tesla for reason we get rising oil prices that's just driving the industry up in general macroeconomically not to mention the fact that tesla has the best software in the business nobody comes close ask anybody who switched from a tesla to a honda pilot for example and i know just the guy shout out to my partner justin talk about the battery life the engineering the infrastructure best in business supercharger network plus i mean the company doesn't spend money on advertisements it gets free pr daily it has no legacy auto division that it has to drag around like a ball and chains slowing its development i mean you can make a case that even though the competition is coming it doesn't really matter back in 2008 when the apple was coming up and the iphone was coming up people were saying well look there's going to be a lot of competition for the iphone there's going to be other smartphones who do similar stuff with similar hardware and they're going to be much less expensive so apple is going to take a beating well that hasn't happened i mean apple is as best as it's ever been and as long as you have a cult following into a high quality product and you know how to sell value you're always going to have a market and the competition doesn't scare me i mean the android didn't kill iphone in fact in the us quite the opposite so i'm thinking of it in very straightforward terms if i look at the quality of management here i see something very simple i see a guy in elon musk who took tesla five years ago and generated a 10x on revenues five years ago the company was generating five billion dollars per year five years later it's generating 55 in just five years now i would not bet against these kind of numbers especially given the fact that tesla despite making one tenth of the volume of a toyota for example has better margins already not to mention the fact that i'm not even talking about the margins of ford and gm i'm talking about toyota the queen the king whatever you want to define toyota so toyota makes 10 million cars a year their margins are not as good as tesla with one i mean imagine adding in stuff we haven't even discussed like robo-taxi and energy maybe even licensing out self-driving software maybe even licensing out supercharger network i mean there's a lot of income streams that can be actually included in these models which i'm not even looking at so whether you want to make fun of kathy or not that's on you i'm gonna tell you to do that or not to do that but as far as tesla goes number one she was right she wasn't wrong and number two it's gonna be a very very dangerous bet to bet against elon musk it's just my opinion of course you got to do your own research find out for yourself talk to a professional this isn't financial advice this is just me conversating with you about my opinions about what some lady on the internet said about tesla now i hope you enjoyed this video head on over right now to tip ranks tv the link is going to be below check out the video there comment hang out with us we're building a phenomenal community over there come say hello we'd love to see you there see you thursday
Comments 0