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l marke bunny okay mark I'll do one my dinner campus educate and teach you so call me at one eight hundred seven four three see me see or tweet me at Jim Cramer see is it a V is it a you maybe it's an L or perhaps it's a Z or it maybe it's a W or a Nike swoosh we keep hearing people who argue about the shape of the recovery but this whole debate misses the point the defining question of this market is very simple well we have a depression anything it makes it depression less likely causes stocks to explode higher and that's what yesterday's rally was really about even as we gave up some of those gains today I'm calling this a consolidation day no matter what now sinking 311 points has to be losing 1.0 5% Nasdaq tipping point 5 4 % when you have a big round like yesterday and it doesn't give up everything just because there's the late afternoon sell-off it's a consolidation the issue here is not whether we'll have a rapid V or recovery or slow you and we bounce low on the Bobby get the W on your l-shape I mean we I don't know the L of course is the house of pain for ages lately of the Congress any have started talking about the swoosh no doubt because of the Michael Jordan series right and the recovery starts out strong but then slows down dramatically all these people fretting about the shape of the recovery are getting ahead of themselves forget the recovery we need you know the shape of the decline as in will it be a really bad recession or a full-blown depression that's what's on the table until last week that depression scenario was very much the only thing on the table if not in my mind the very likely scenario even after the Fed the Treasury Department moved aggressively and I think terrifically to cushion the economy there was still real possibility that we were headed for breadlines and massive homeless and clamp Hammond's major cities I've got a food line right near me in Brooklyn it stretches for as far as the eye can see yes why you wouldn't wouldn't know it at all from the averages there's a real chants the Great Depression Redux look whatever's happening here it's entirely possible that the economy hasn't yet bombed I think we probably have but it's not gonna shock me if we have millions more layoffs and I couldn't certainly see the stock market going lower for these levels is not a question however yesterday the market exploded higher because we've got several positives to call less or at once though you sure didn't get that impression if you're listening to the questions the Senate lot lobbed at Fed chief Jay pal and Treasury secretary minutiae our senators don't seem to believe anything changed for the better some of them are down white bright rude I thought I found the whole testimony of all confusion given the Treasury and the Fed have been instrumental in these stem in the decline the source of that confusion none other than the stock market the opening bell see when you study the Great Depression as I have a totally gratuitous thing as I have I had to go to that self-aggrandizing you know it's funny the Great Depression it's almost always framed by the stock market after the Great Depression of the Great Crash of 1929 stocks just got hammered for years all sorts of great American companies with incredibly elevated stocks the rca's the Radio Corporation of America much more than what we have now that's right they were much more elevated than now went under in no time flat and even the ones that survived saw their share prices get vaporized during the Depression the stock market itself was the fabulous metaphor for the broader economy it told the tale and it told the truth about what was happening in real America they were in sync this time it's very different see this time the markets much less presenter of the US economy you've got all sorts of huge international companies that are built on fabulous secular themes the cloud the Internet of Things 5g the data center and these themes have kept working even in the middle of a kovin induced economic catastrophe may I'm actually do better when people are forced to work from home such as the cream recovered 19 index which will be updated the day after Memorial Day case anyone scary there was nothing like this in the early years the Great Depression I mean I wish people understood you gotta go look at the at the when people were look are we're focused on the stock market and on the economy what they said over and over again was wow did you see how bad the stock did you seal bad that did no now we just have to focus on employment forget the depression they're not even training like these stocks are in a recession it's remarkable some of them are out-and-out winners Facebook thanks to its newly found embrace of small business by the way I think that's a fabulous idea if you ask me Microsoft because of its cloud services division Apple because of its service revenue stream Netflix because people are desperate for a home entertainment Amazon because they deliver just about everything right to your door no mads no mask let's drill down on Amazon for a minute because it's emblematic of the exact opposite thing of the great stock of the Great Depression people always talked about the Radio Corporation of America its exact opposite see it especially the word Oh Amazon's instead we had legions of bankrupt communications and retailing companies typically retailers they'd have enough shoppers because they were simply there was enough money but this time even with 30 million people losing their jobs we have a safety net including programs they were put in place after the Great Depression in the government's multi trillion-dollar rescue package without the Paycheck protection program and the 1,200 our checks per person and especially the massively expanded unemployment benefits we would be in much worse shape didn't have any of that in the 1930s this safety net that generated enough demand to boost companies like an Amazon or Walmart was important today it was by the way a stellar quarter this number powered by 70 percent growth in its e-commerce and its division and it's giving you another chance to buy it because it's sold off at the end of the day so the relative strength of the stock market has obscured the depths of this economic meltdown even as the tenth of the country lost their job stocks simply aren't behaving like we're headed for a depression still that was very much the case at least until very recent see in the last seven days we've gotten some remarkable revelations first as the states started reopen for business realized that there was indeed a lot of pent-up demand despite the high rates of joblessness we heard today from Home Depot and Walmart that business got stronger and maybe they can't clear that April was the bottom even as things look pretty darn bottomless 19 days ago second the price of oil is well I think wall prices are terrible barometer of the broader economy Wall Street disagrees with me and when crude plummeted to negative 37 dollars a barrel well that terrified people seeing crude bounce back to 32 is given many of these hedge funds a lot more confidence more importantly if these levels mostly oil producers will be able to pay their bills which is huge for the banks that lent them money you get big credit card to false couple with some oil defaults and the banks were reeling canceling derivative dividends fight for the lives but or else come back with a vengeance and the early credit card to liquid seas are surprisingly low which means that again unlike the Great Depression the banking system remains intact even as I continue to hate the stocks in there then when you look over all the debt that's been issued the last few weeks a huge percentage that debt never would have been able to be issued under normal circumstances no buy it anywhere near where the levels that came out and the companies would have probably gone bust hey come on Carnival was struggling to survive desperately trying to find finance he stopped down to aid offering death-rattle terms nobody would lend them any money except the Federal Reserve of course then promised to buy the bonds of struggling companies suddenly in carnivals but I'm offering you couldn't get enough of it at the same time every single airline everyone would have gone under if it weren't for the Treasury Department they had no business and they had no business being in business without the government they would have folded with truly catastrophic layoffs that have been extended to Boeing in the two million people who work for it and Boeing supply chain companies treasurer secretary saved these companies and people just say he saved them are you kidding me that's how you really get into a depression even after all these interventions we still had a lot to worry about there was one more missing piece of the puzzle we need to have some hope for vaccine not the vaccine but some hopeful vaccine when you look to the major pharmaceutical companies they all say next year that's a long time but then yesterday moderna releases some very preliminary data very very very very far very preliminary data that suggests that they might have something by early next year even early late this year that gives us hope although the hope was partially repealed today when people started poking holes in moderna spreche release look I think my daughter was very careful about what they told us yesterday which was not a lot but some blue this extremely preliminary data point out of proportion now there's a and then others today noting it the company sold stock it's the opening seem to think that the press release and the subsequent stock sales were both ill-advised look I'm not saying this markets done going down there's always the possibility we get more Seles look we did it again and Dan you hear more about that later we go off the charts with the Fibonacci Queen but the bottom line even if maduras vaccine news was blown out of proportion by people who needed need some remedial statistics lessons and I know that class was hard so I understand I'll excuse you the fact is that we've probably taken a depression off the table and that's more important than which letter the output the recovery happens to resemble it doesn't mean there's not more downside but does mean we likely won't be revisiting the mark slows because the of all they're not as bad as feared news that permeates the market how about Darin in Florida Darin booyah Jim we are done what want to give a quick shout out to my pops my brother's a PM Billy and my buddies Ricky and Ryan but Tim I want to talk to you about CRM Salesforce amazing company great track record I currently own it and I'm walking a little taller on that spiked up today I'm still extremely bullish on it in the short term though bears value on the stock and the high 190th to load 200 I want to double my position leading no no no come on what would Ricky think that's one of his friends um no I don't want you to double your you got a really nice run here I mean if anything look I don't want any of cover your ears I mean I would rather sell a little than double here I mean you got a really great game and my travel trust owns it we look at it every day and say where we thank our lucky stars it's this high but we would not double down here and and go yeah just tell Ricky to be cool all right let's go to Michael and California please Michael what's up thank you for taking my call I'm a huge fan you guys got my DVR filled with clamor mad money there you go I'm calling on Clovis oncology ticker clvs I have always liked Clovis I think it's a great spec but you understand it since I'm at look like my sister wasn't bolder I would say last call my clothes on it is a specter so if you put more than 1/10 of your money in this then Michael you shouldn't be DV doing team New York what do you give you re whatever you're doing because it's it's too speculative and it doesn't make any money but I do like the idea let's go to ian's in Michigan in hi Jim here's the inline Berg I back in the middle equals $32 it is it's time to take some profit buy more shares or hold on what's this doctor in trade longer term I like trade just very much II and I think you even I'm gonna give you that you have horse sense why because trade desk is the alternative to Google it's the way to be able to advertise get your customers to be able to be wherever they should be all over the web the internet whatever and I think that's a really good call but it is a hard stock for you know I would have preferred free and to say that he likes say Netflix that would have been easier all right here we go a depression well last couple days seems like it might be off the table and that's one of the most important factors in this market it's one of the reasons why we rallied so hard until stat put out those moderna that in the Dern story which said that what same thing moderna said which is that we don't necessarily have anything other than smooth urgent data you know they're not gonna put out a release saying we saw Cove we have money tonight you've heard it many times before small business is the backbone of the economy so how are you gangs have uh some creative under quarantine things that could leave a lasting change then I'm going off the charts with woman who nailed the crash back in February and told us so what does she think about the current setup um tackling the turf techniques and with corporate offices closed due to Kovach 19 more people are accessing corporate systems from home so I'm going the Iying ping identity find out how it's allowing access while keeping your data secure so bed two mad money does cnbc.com you
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