저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 생존력 강한 대형주만 살아남는 'K자형 생존게임' 국면이며, 정부 추가 부양 없이는 중소기업 붕괴와 대형 소매·외식 업체 쏠림이 심화될 것이라는 경고. [거시·경기] 코로나19로 실업자가 수백만 명 늘었고, 재개방 후에도 가을 재확산 가능성이 있다고 봄. 추가 재정 지원이 없으면 '제2의 대공황' 수준의 피해가 올 수 있다고 주장. [연준·정책] 파월 의장이 정부 추가 조치가 없으면 종말적 시나리오가 가능하다고 한 발언에 대해, 위기 규모를 이해하고 신용 공급에 기여했다며 긍정 평가. 중소기업 대출·신용 공급 필요성 강조. [유명 투자자 발언] 스탠 드러켄밀러·데이비드 테퍼의 시장 비관 발언이 시장을 압박했다고 언급. [업종·종목] 대형 유통·플랫폼(월마트, 아마존, 코스트코)과 스타벅스·맥도날드·버거킹·도미노피자 등 재무구조가 탄탄한 외식 대형 체인은 살아남을 것으로 봄. 반면 중소형 소매·식당은 부도 위험. 목표 방향은 대형 우량주 중심. [개별 질의] 유니폼·위생·청소 서비스의 Cintas는 매우 좋은 분기이며 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 평가. 항공주는 현재 관심 낮음 언급. [리스크] 정부 지원이 없으면 중소기업 신용 경색이 이어지고, 대형 기업 쏠림으로 경제 구조가 왜곡될 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
l marke I'm creamer welcome to mad money welcome to cray America I'll be one educate and teach this is the wrong time to take our cue from Charles Darwin in a survival of the fittest economy most positions simply won't make it right now I love Billy Paul but only the strong survive is the wrong anthem for the age of Kovac 19 but I do think that's where we're headed and even after a good day like this one with the Dow gained 307 seven points hasn't been climbed 1.15 percent Nasdaq advanced by nine one percent the thing is the averages are dominated by the fittest stocks the ones with the strongest balance sheets that will be available to survive and they will be and they will do so where most commerce will win most Commerce is on hiatus when we get out I ATIS they'll still be there but other companies lesser-known but still in the SBI 100 need credit to make it through not because the reckless not because they're poorly managed but because it's impossible to plan for this kind of economic catastrophe and I worry that many of them and I'm not done including of course all the small midsize businesses that aren't even public I'm worried that they're doomed doomed now I've said endlessly that we don't trade launching nets around here or nail salons or gyms although we do have Planet Fitness on the show later tonight however there are plenty of publicly traded companies that supply these small and medium-sized businesses that I fear are doomed and more important if we keep seeing jobless numbers like we had this morning another three million people out of work this crew now this could be an extinction-level for small businesses the ones below we might be headed for a situation where only a few gigantic companies dominate everything because they're competitors they all went under and that is a grim future if we let it happen if we all if we allow survival of fittest to run its course it will crush us as a nation but well crush the stock market believe it or not that's less clear-cut in the last couple days we've heard from four four big-name individuals who put tremendous pressure on the market first we had dr.
Felton who sounded very worried about the impact of reopening the economy pointing out that we could see more big outbreaks in the fall he was pretty that equivalent actually I thought it's pretty frightening so unequivocal the president Trump scolding him about it now I'm not going to second-guess this man dr.
Fowler and of course in this pandemic that's his department and he is a serious practitioner my department is helping you figure out what a prolonged shutdown would do to the stock and I got to tell you it without a lot more assistance from the federal government I think it would cause yes a second Great Depression tap see hurt the market with his negativity as badly as Fed chief Jerome pal did when he spoke yesterday pal traced out an almost apocalyptic scenario if the government doesn't take more action to save Commerce you know what the man's dead right well a lot of people in Wall Street didn't want to hear what he had to say I'd say I found pals testimony actually reassuring the worst thing we could possibly have right now as a Fed chief who doesn't understand the scale of the crisis and thinks we should just let the economy fend for itself I was the only critical pal when he's brave rights to aggressively at the end of 2018 well but the guy has learned his lesson he caught this meltdown earlier earlier than almost everybody he's been instrumental in making credit available big companies that need to survive and probably would have gone belly-up already imagine already if it weren't for this man millions of jobs this guy has already saved now I don't like being in this situation but at least the guy running the Federal Reserve gets it if pal said everything would be fine now that would be a reason to sell we also had two very important money managers making quit pronouncement Stan Druckenmiller guy with a great track record was quite as disliking this market intensely now I didn't even hear a speech I'm not even sure that was his view but that's how it was conveyed in Rangel hornbills same thing happened another legend David Tepper called n Scott Wapner XI halftime report I was on the show and he said he didn't like to set up both consciousness smart season and most important honest people but remember they're playing for themselves and they're not gonna come out every single day and say what they do now after that kind of quartet pileup though it's no wonder the averages got crushed yet for all we know the current quarter will be alright maybe maybe we have like 30 million like forty million people unemployed Robinson so it's hard to believe the mark you can keep climbing let's say the Bears were right what does that mean all right let's follow through let's follow the logic okay first off almost every business runs on credit that's what they do is not that they're reckless just how commerce works now when your business is interrupted by a natural disaster or flight up well let's say let's say a storm you have insurance so a company doesn't even skip a beat a fire okay but many of these business interruption insurance policies have carve-outs for pandemic so what happens when we have this virus running rampant and the economy shuts down and the government deems your business non-essential as it did almost every small medium-sized business there is it means well you're just trying not to default trying not to get evicted you're trying to put food on the table and you're not you can't and your workers can take a look around that every business you see on the streets where you live do that most of them won't make it unless the government gives another another bailout I'm not kidding I mean we have a charity fund for summit that I contributed but I I see it coming so do you but the companies with strong balance sheets oh they make it they profit they win that's why I included Walmart Amazon and Costco in the Kramer Cove in nineteen index and yes I wish I'd included target we will not be a we won't be the exact like the old Soviet Union which really only had one chain G um gum but you know what we're gonna be moving way too close to that for comfort like the old so what that will do with the tens of millions of people worked in the dead retailers beats me same to the restaurants we got some numbers from bunch of polling today from a very good analyst who argued that they're now making as much money as they were before the pandemic they got terrific technology they can spend they got a great balance II we were from another analyst Wendy's breakfast success Seattle newspaper reported that Starbucks might be able to get rent concessions because rents are coming way down and they're powerful other than those three and let's say McDonald's Burger King at Domino's Brookings quick serve and Lisa I have a hard time imagining many other players making god this is it this is America without a bailout right here is where your leap swing by this is it order this comes to your house you can pick it up here these are boxes you gotta wait 24 hours you know because of that stuff great balance sheet hey goody they got the bait breakfast bacon here the rest are dice Falls where you can only operate at 50 percent of capacity which is what happens at a restaurant well you have to take your customers temperature we can't have a country with less than a dozen national retail and restaurant change don't get me wrong it won't hurt your ability to make money in stock market just buy these stocks they've got the balance used to handle anything we throw them we know people will shop and eat there because they have to shop and eat somewhere no the problem with this situation is that it's a rigged survival of Fitness the government forces your enterprise to shut down it should compensate you for the business you're losing there are plenty of companies that could survive and even thrive with it without the lockdown followed by the physical distancing rules that will be stuck with until there's a vaccine that's why I like the term business interruption insurance the Treasury secretary munition talked about and I think PPP is sensational but longer the pandemic goes the more help we will need to open up state governments have put these businesses on the path to insolvency and even if they had a good reason for doing that we don't want to look back in this period where most small enterprises medium-sized went under because the government told them to go under judging by the action in the bank stocks until today the vast majority the smaller businesses won't be able to get credit it would be crazy just to let them wither and die the bottom any hopes and dreams the bottom line without more stimulus I think you should just buy the big change that can survive the lockdown and a slow reopening of the economy oh these all thrive either way I think that's terrible for that country it's like an economic coup by big business at the expense of everyone else but it doesn't have to be terrible for your portfolio Tyler and Missouri Tyler hey today on a synchronous financial ticker sy we got credit problems throughout the system they're just being masked right now by the fine acts just by the Federal Reserve we're not going to gamble that's gambling I don't like to gamble it's gonna Shawn in Florida Shawn hey Jim a big booyah from Tampa Florida how are you nice I like your quarterback what's going on I love to share one thanks for all your hard work over the years and for navigating us this crisis with businesses beginning to slowly reopen especially restaurants stores etc cleanliness is going to be a major part of operations for the foreseeable future products and services from uniforms and PBE restaurant supplies restroom supplies chemical services what are your thoughts on Cintas Cintas was great it was a fabulous quarter they're indispensable that's a really good call I was actually going to do a piece CentOS into us but we got somebody guest at me that I can't you got a winner and Cintas going much higher Dave in Florida much our Dave hey Jim my question maybe one a simple math but surrounds your evaluation after companies have taken actions at the Luther chairs yeah number companies have done that in this crisis but what participated the precipitated the question came from the interview you did with Southwest CEO while not particularly interested in airline stock right now I thought perhaps I ought to add it to my watchlist as the best of greed should the opera tis about the halves of which there are eleven trillion dollars worth and they have knots of which they're about sixteen trillion dollars worth and we got to stay out of the sixteen trillion even though the real visible and their household names all right it's a survival of the fittest economy if something isn't done so what do you do well here it is this is your insurance policy you're in business interruption insurance on man money tonight what will your gym look like in a corbin nineteen world I'm talking the future of fitness with the CEO Planet Fitness says they open then what deck was to sell what we just went through it as the time to sound this out all clear we'll check the charts find out time to Curb Your Enthusiasm on some of the cloud stocks or put their recent pull backs be buying opportunities online out tricks one of my old faves to find out so d cnbc.com you
Comments 0